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Your thoughts on Mega Millions Matrix Change?

Topic closed. 28 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Think.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
United States
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August 20, 2005
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Posted: August 5, 2013, 6:44 pm - IP Logged

I cannot see any positive side to the new matrix change.

If you match 4 of 5 + Mega ball you win $5,000 and the odds of doing that are 1:739,688

If I hit pick 4 straight I stand to win $5,000 and the odds of doing that are 1:10,000.

If I match 5 of 5 in the local Mass Cash (5/35) I stand to win $100,000 and the odds for that is 1:324,632

Unless they start selling MM tickets at 50¢ I don't see players motivated to play. I could be wrong.

What you missed is the true odds of winning the Jackpot are now lower for most people.  What they are doing is pretty much making it a Jackpot only game.

You just have to save your money and play a "full ticket" when the jackpot is high enough.

e.g.  The megaplier is pointless as that ticket costs $2 but why buy that and win only second prize when you can spend $15 and win the jackpot?  That is the consideration.

If you buy 1,2,3,4,5 and any megaball and you hit the first 5 numbers but not the megaball you win 5million dollars.   If you buy your 5 numbers with all 15 megaballs then your true odds of winning the jackpot are about 18 million to 1 because you have knocked out the multiplier.

The question is now - how high does the jackpot have to get for you to start buying "full tickets" and spending the $14? (15 - the 1 dollar rebate)

This change may actually be a precursor to a multi country "AmeroMillions" game that may come up in the future.

    tkr333's avatar - Lottery-058.jpg

    United States
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    Posted: August 5, 2013, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

    Just don't play it to prove your point. They are not making the game for more wins it's for more money on the other side. I think we shouldn't play a penny on the game.

    When they make the change, i will be out. I have only bought two powerball tickets since they changed. That was because the cashier accidentally ran them.

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
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      Posted: August 8, 2013, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

      I just read this from the MA lottery website

      "That means a Mega Millions ticket with the Megaplier option can now win up to $5 million in the game without matching all six numbers" 

      To those in the know, is that gonna be an annuity? It would suck big time if the second prize was an annuity.

      That money's gone fo ever


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        Posted: August 10, 2013, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

        Seems like some folks are pretty steamed with the upcoming matrix change for Mega Millions.  I think Mega Millions needed some sort of face lift... maybe not a matrix change... but something... 

        What would you do if you were the boss of MM?

        I would raise the price to $2. and add "pool play" to the play slip for an extra $2.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: August 10, 2013, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

          I would raise the price to $2. and add "pool play" to the play slip for an extra $2.

          How would your "pool play" work?  It has been proposed before and I think someone even patented the idea but it never caught on with states maybe because there are plenty of them in the work places.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: August 10, 2013, 1:18 pm - IP Logged

            Getting the right numbers out of a field of 56 was a shot in the dark.

            Getting the right numbers out of a field of 75 now?

            The price of one ticket is all I'll risk on that, no matter the jackpot size.


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              Posted: August 10, 2013, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

              How would your "pool play" work?  It has been proposed before and I think someone even patented the idea but it never caught on with states maybe because there are plenty of them in the work places.

              A lottery wide PB pool (or MM if they were not so slow) would blow away local pools AND power play. The lotteries could also keep all the proceeds instead of raising lower tier prize pay outs. 

              It would be super simple. Just charge an extra $2. for "pool play" on the play slip and if the jackpot winner is a "pool play" participant he gives up exactly half of his winnings, and that is split evenly on a per line basis among all the other participants. If a person bought 10 "pool play" lines he would get 10 shares. 

              The jackpot winner would only get his half of the jackpot no matter how many pool play lines were played.

              So an example would be a $40 million jackpot leaving $20 million split among all lines played with pool play.

              If 10,000 "pool play" lines were sold, each line would receive a prize of $2000. and if a person bought 5 lines they would receive a $10,000 prize.  Of course a person could recieve 10 times that on a huge jackpot.

                Romancandle's avatar - moon
                Upacreek
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                Posted: August 10, 2013, 3:32 pm - IP Logged

                A lottery wide PB pool (or MM if they were not so slow) would blow away local pools AND power play. The lotteries could also keep all the proceeds instead of raising lower tier prize pay outs. 

                It would be super simple. Just charge an extra $2. for "pool play" on the play slip and if the jackpot winner is a "pool play" participant he gives up exactly half of his winnings, and that is split evenly on a per line basis among all the other participants. If a person bought 10 "pool play" lines he would get 10 shares. 

                The jackpot winner would only get his half of the jackpot no matter how many pool play lines were played.

                So an example would be a $40 million jackpot leaving $20 million split among all lines played with pool play.

                If 10,000 "pool play" lines were sold, each line would receive a prize of $2000. and if a person bought 5 lines they would receive a $10,000 prize.  Of course a person could recieve 10 times that on a huge jackpot.

                That's interesting Ronnie... I agree it would blow away local pools and the power play element of the games... but what effect would that have on the game considering the folks who only play to win the big enchilada? 

                I imagine that would be hard to stomach for those folks... knowing you would be splitting the JP right off the bat with pool players... what if multiple JP winner's hit in that scenario?  Now you're only getting a 1/4 or less of the JP...  (if I understand you correctly).

                -RC

                  Think's avatar - lightbulb
                  Marquette, MI
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                  Posted: August 10, 2013, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

                  Getting the right numbers out of a field of 56 was a shot in the dark.

                  Getting the right numbers out of a field of 75 now?

                  The price of one ticket is all I'll risk on that, no matter the jackpot size.

                  Yes!  That is why it is going to take forever to roll.

                  Some people will only spend $1 and others will spend more if the Jackpot is big enough.  However, I can't figure out who in their right mind would buy the Megaplier on the rejig.

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: August 11, 2013, 12:05 am - IP Logged

                    Yes!  That is why it is going to take forever to roll.

                    Some people will only spend $1 and others will spend more if the Jackpot is big enough.  However, I can't figure out who in their right mind would buy the Megaplier on the rejig.

                    Well maybe I'm not in my right mind but I'd buy the plier because I'm only buying one ticket and I want the max in the unlikely event that I win.

                    I look at it the same way as playing a multi-coin progressive slot machine, I always play the max number of coins cuz I want the max payoff in the unlikely event that I win.

                    Or compared to baseball, with one ticket I might not come up to bat much but if and when I connect, I wanna knock it out of the freakin' park with everybody on.

                    I want the grand slam, I'm swingin' for the fences.

                      redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
                      California
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                      Posted: August 11, 2013, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                      Speaking about matrix, the following is a list of the odds of winning, old and new one side by side.

                      Match                                   Old odds             New odds - effective Oct 19, 2013
                                                                     (1 in ...)              (1 in ...)                             
                      All 5 of 5 and Mega             175,711,536       258,890,850  worse
                      All 5 of 5                                 3,904,701         18,492,204   worse
                      Any 4 of 5 and Mega                 689,065              739,688   worse
                      Any 4 of 5                                    15,313                52,835   worse
                      Any 3 of 5 and Mega                    13,781                10,720   better
                      Any 3 of 5                                         306                     766   worse
                      Any 2 of 5 and Mega                         844                     473   better
                      Any 1 of 5 and Mega                         141                       56   better
                      None of 5, Only Mega                         75                        21   better

                      Overall odds of winning                      39.89                   14.71

                        ThemBonez's avatar - 16314 s.jpg
                        Phoenix, AZ
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                        Posted: August 12, 2013, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

                        5/75 is the part I really don't like.  I'll still play it, but I'm gonna be picking the Mega balls to win and QP the 5/75.

                        "JACKPOT BABY!" ...those elusive words still elude me! LOL

                          MsNumberDreamer's avatar - lottery balls-cash.jpg
                          North Carolina
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                          Posted: August 12, 2013, 3:13 pm - IP Logged

                          I didn't play Mega Millions that much to begin with because I prefer the Powerball and the high jackpots it brings. I only played Mega Millions when it would hit over 190 million which isn't as often as PB.  I definitely don't see myself playing with the change.  I am not upset about the change.

                            Think's avatar - lightbulb
                            Marquette, MI
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                            Posted: August 13, 2013, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                            Well maybe I'm not in my right mind but I'd buy the plier because I'm only buying one ticket and I want the max in the unlikely event that I win.

                            I look at it the same way as playing a multi-coin progressive slot machine, I always play the max number of coins cuz I want the max payoff in the unlikely event that I win.

                            Or compared to baseball, with one ticket I might not come up to bat much but if and when I connect, I wanna knock it out of the freakin' park with everybody on.

                            I want the grand slam, I'm swingin' for the fences.

                            I still maintain they should split the megaplier in two.

                            A Bigaplier That fixes second and third prizes at higher levels maybe $10,000,000 and $100,000 to $150,000
                            respectively.

                            A smallaplier  for fourth prize on down.

                            A buck for the bigaplier and possibly $1, $2 or$3 (players choice) for the smallaplier...then I can see it making sense.