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Hot Lotto is struggling. So will Mega Millions after October 22.

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 3 years ago by maringoman.

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maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
Massachusetts
United States
Member #37433
April 14, 2006
2747 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

It seems many people abandoned HotLotto after the matrix changes of May 12, 2013. The jackpot was rising by more than $100,000 anytime the jp was over $1.3M  but notice what happened after May 11 when many players, myself included, abandoned the game. 

The last drawing of May 11, 2013 before the matrix change had a jackpot of $6.11M from the previous jp and had risen by $230,000. Nobody hit the May 11 jp and so it rose, but just barely. It rose by a mere $50,000 despite the fact that the jp was still more than $6M.

 

 Draw Date Jackpot Amount Change
 SAT 09/28/13 $1.75 Million+$50,000
 WED 09/25/13 $1.70 Million+$50,000
 SAT 09/21/13 $1.65 Million+$50,000
 WED 09/18/13 $1.60 Million+$50,000
 SAT 09/14/13 $1.55 Million+$50,000
 WED 09/11/13 $1.50 Million+$50,000
 SAT 09/07/13 $1.45 Million+$50,000
 WED 09/04/13 $1.40 Million+$50,000
 SAT 08/31/13 $1.35 Million+$50,000
 WED 08/28/13 $1.30 Million+$50,000
 SAT 08/24/13 $1.25 Million+$50,000
 WED 08/21/13 $1.20 Million+$50,000
 SAT 08/17/13 $1.15 Million+$50,000
 WED 08/14/13 $1.10 Million+$50,000
 SAT 08/10/13 $1.05 Million-$6.31 Million
 WED 08/07/13 $7.36 Million+$50,000
 SAT 08/03/13 $7.31 Million+$50,000
 WED 07/31/13 $7.26 Million+$50,000
 SAT 07/27/13 $7.21 Million+$50,000
 WED 07/24/13 $7.16 Million+$50,000
 SAT 07/20/13 $7.11 Million+$50,000
 WED 07/17/13 $7.06 Million+$50,000
 SAT 07/13/13 $7.01 Million+$50,000
 WED 07/10/13 $6.96 Million+$50,000
 SAT 07/06/13 $6.91 Million+$50,000
 WED 07/03/13 $6.86 Million+$50,000
 SAT 06/29/13 $6.81 Million+$50,000
 WED 06/26/13 $6.76 Million+$50,000
 SAT 06/22/13 $6.71 Million+$50,000
 WED 06/19/13 $6.66 Million+$50,000
 SAT 06/15/13 $6.61 Million+$50,000
 WED 06/12/13 $6.56 Million+$50,000
 SAT 06/08/13 $6.51 Million+$50,000
 WED 06/05/13 $6.46 Million+$50,000
 SAT 06/01/13 $6.41 Million+$50,000
 WED 05/29/13 $6.36 Million+$50,000
 SAT 05/25/13 $6.31 Million+$50,000
 WED 05/22/13 $6.26 Million+$50,000
 SAT 05/18/13 $6.21 Million+$50,000
 WED 05/15/13 $6.16 Million+$50,000
 SAT 05/11/13 $6.11 Million+$230,000
 WED 05/08/13 $5.88 Million+$210,000
 SAT 05/04/13 $5.67 Million+$190,000
 WED 05/01/13 $5.48 Million+$200,000
 SAT 04/27/13 $5.28 Million+$200,000
 WED 04/24/13 $5.08 Million+$170,000
 SAT 04/20/13 $4.91 Million+$230,000
 WED 04/17/13 $4.68 Million+$190,000
 SAT 04/13/13 $4.49 Million+$230,000
 WED 04/10/13 $4.26 Million+$110,000
 SAT 04/06/13 $4.15 Million+$210,000

Do you think MM will struggle like Hot Lotto after the matrix changes? 

Do you think my analysis is right on Hot Lotto struggling?

That money's gone fo ever

    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
    Bay Area - California
    United States
    Member #136477
    December 12, 2012
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    Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

    Greetings Maringoman: My question is " How high can or has this Hot Lotto" risen, is there a cap since it seems it jumps by 50 grand , nothing more?
    We have Fantasy 5 out here on the West Coast and that puppy has risen to $400, 000 at times when not won, and that's a daily drawing.
    Super Lotto Plus has been known to go over $100 million but its been awhile since its seen that number, in fact with the introduction of PB to the State, there were some who thought the lottery commission would stop SLP.

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
      United States
      Member #37433
      April 14, 2006
      2747 Posts
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      Posted: September 28, 2013, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

      Greetings Maringoman: My question is " How high can or has this Hot Lotto" risen, is there a cap since it seems it jumps by 50 grand , nothing more?
      We have Fantasy 5 out here on the West Coast and that puppy has risen to $400, 000 at times when not won, and that's a daily drawing.
      Super Lotto Plus has been known to go over $100 million but its been awhile since its seen that number, in fact with the introduction of PB to the State, there were some who thought the lottery commission would stop SLP.

      noise-gate  notice the way the jp stopped rising by more than $50,000 after the matrix change of May 12, 2013 despite the fact that the jp is well over $6,000,000. What could be the cause for that?

      That money's gone fo ever

        noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
        Bay Area - California
        United States
        Member #136477
        December 12, 2012
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        Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

        noise-gate  notice the way the jp stopped rising by more than $50,000 after the matrix change of May 12, 2013 despite the fact that the jp is well over $6,000,000. What could be the cause for that?

        Yeah that's going backwards, its no wonder you & others abandoned the game. Perhaps you right, this could be a pattern of things to come..

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
          United States
          Member #103813
          January 5, 2011
          1530 Posts
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          Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

          It seems many people abandoned HotLotto after the matrix changes of May 12, 2013. The jackpot was rising by more than $100,000 anytime the jp was over $1.3M  but notice what happened after May 11 when many players, myself included, abandoned the game. 

          The last drawing of May 11, 2013 before the matrix change had a jackpot of $6.11M from the previous jp and had risen by $230,000. Nobody hit the May 11 jp and so it rose, but just barely. It rose by a mere $50,000 despite the fact that the jp was still more than $6M.

           

           Draw Date Jackpot Amount Change
           SAT 09/28/13 $1.75 Million+$50,000
           WED 09/25/13 $1.70 Million+$50,000
           SAT 09/21/13 $1.65 Million+$50,000
           WED 09/18/13 $1.60 Million+$50,000
           SAT 09/14/13 $1.55 Million+$50,000
           WED 09/11/13 $1.50 Million+$50,000
           SAT 09/07/13 $1.45 Million+$50,000
           WED 09/04/13 $1.40 Million+$50,000
           SAT 08/31/13 $1.35 Million+$50,000
           WED 08/28/13 $1.30 Million+$50,000
           SAT 08/24/13 $1.25 Million+$50,000
           WED 08/21/13 $1.20 Million+$50,000
           SAT 08/17/13 $1.15 Million+$50,000
           WED 08/14/13 $1.10 Million+$50,000
           SAT 08/10/13 $1.05 Million-$6.31 Million
           WED 08/07/13 $7.36 Million+$50,000
           SAT 08/03/13 $7.31 Million+$50,000
           WED 07/31/13 $7.26 Million+$50,000
           SAT 07/27/13 $7.21 Million+$50,000
           WED 07/24/13 $7.16 Million+$50,000
           SAT 07/20/13 $7.11 Million+$50,000
           WED 07/17/13 $7.06 Million+$50,000
           SAT 07/13/13 $7.01 Million+$50,000
           WED 07/10/13 $6.96 Million+$50,000
           SAT 07/06/13 $6.91 Million+$50,000
           WED 07/03/13 $6.86 Million+$50,000
           SAT 06/29/13 $6.81 Million+$50,000
           WED 06/26/13 $6.76 Million+$50,000
           SAT 06/22/13 $6.71 Million+$50,000
           WED 06/19/13 $6.66 Million+$50,000
           SAT 06/15/13 $6.61 Million+$50,000
           WED 06/12/13 $6.56 Million+$50,000
           SAT 06/08/13 $6.51 Million+$50,000
           WED 06/05/13 $6.46 Million+$50,000
           SAT 06/01/13 $6.41 Million+$50,000
           WED 05/29/13 $6.36 Million+$50,000
           SAT 05/25/13 $6.31 Million+$50,000
           WED 05/22/13 $6.26 Million+$50,000
           SAT 05/18/13 $6.21 Million+$50,000
           WED 05/15/13 $6.16 Million+$50,000
           SAT 05/11/13 $6.11 Million+$230,000
           WED 05/08/13 $5.88 Million+$210,000
           SAT 05/04/13 $5.67 Million+$190,000
           WED 05/01/13 $5.48 Million+$200,000
           SAT 04/27/13 $5.28 Million+$200,000
           WED 04/24/13 $5.08 Million+$170,000
           SAT 04/20/13 $4.91 Million+$230,000
           WED 04/17/13 $4.68 Million+$190,000
           SAT 04/13/13 $4.49 Million+$230,000
           WED 04/10/13 $4.26 Million+$110,000
           SAT 04/06/13 $4.15 Million+$210,000

          Do you think MM will struggle like Hot Lotto after the matrix changes? 

          Do you think my analysis is right on Hot Lotto struggling?

          Bottom line: I think any lotto game has to be sized properly for the playing population.

          I don't know the sales numbers on Hot lotto, but looking at those results, I'd guess the annual sales is less than the odds on the top prize of 29M? That's not sized properly.

          A 5/39 game or 6/49 game would not be sized properly for a national game.(too small) And also, if MM and PB have taken the sales away from the local state lotto, a 6/49 game may no longer be sized properly for the state.(too big)

          For new MM, with sales of a few billion, to have 258M odds? I'd say that's sized properly. Assuming no mass exodus of the playing population.

            Avatar
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            NEW YORK CITY
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            September 13, 2013
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            Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

            We dont have Hot Lotto in NY, so I really dont know what the issue is. But there was a change to Powerball and since then ticket prices have skyrocketed. Before the change we only saw one $400 Million jackpot (Mega Millions). Now its more frequent. The new Mega Millions change will have higher jackpots, but it might be months before the jackpot reaches $300 Million. Just look at how long it took to reach $189 Million now 18 draws ago or July 30, 2013 last time Mega was hit. There are 6 more draws unit the new change format. If its not hit before this and the new game goes into effect we definity might see a $1- Billion Jackpot.

              maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
              Massachusetts
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              Member #37433
              April 14, 2006
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              Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

              Bottom line: I think any lotto game has to be sized properly for the playing population.

              I don't know the sales numbers on Hot lotto, but looking at those results, I'd guess the annual sales is less than the odds on the top prize of 29M? That's not sized properly.

              A 5/39 game or 6/49 game would not be sized properly for a national game.(too small) And also, if MM and PB have taken the sales away from the local state lotto, a 6/49 game may no longer be sized properly for the state.(too big)

              For new MM, with sales of a few billion, to have 258M odds? I'd say that's sized properly. Assuming no mass exodus of the playing population.

              Hot Lotto is played in  District of Columbia, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, or West Virginia. I would say that these 15 states and Washington DC provide a sizable population. If indeed there is a drop in sales after the change in matrix as I am suggesting in this thread, then I can only attribute it to player dissatisfaction

              That money's gone fo ever

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
                Member #103813
                January 5, 2011
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                Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

                Hot Lotto is played in  District of Columbia, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, or West Virginia. I would say that these 15 states and Washington DC provide a sizable population. If indeed there is a drop in sales after the change in matrix as I am suggesting in this thread, then I can only attribute it to player dissatisfaction

                Yeah, the population is high, but is anyone playing? What's the playing population?

                I don't know what the sales were before the matrix change, but I don't get the thinking behind the change: go from 11M to 29M odds and hope for more play, when PB and MM are options? Didn't seem like a smart move.

                I don't see a way forward for Hot Lotto. It's a bit different for MM situation, they're trying to compete with PB as top dog, but in a different way.

                  msharkey2001's avatar - Trek startrek.gif
                  New Hampshire
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                  Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:43 pm - IP Logged

                  Your analysis is right on maringoman. Tri State Megabucks Plus just to your north increases by 50K per draw and that's just Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Hot Lotto with 5 times the number of states participating can't do better than that? Seems like the Hot Lotto has tanked miserably. I used to play that game on a regular basis but no longer.

                  I also agree that the new MegaMillions matrix will end up tanking sales for them as well.

                    HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
                    Idaho
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                    Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                    That's an all-cash JP, and withholding taxes are paid.  So 25% of the federal taxes are paid, but I don't know if state tax is considered a withholding tax.

                    When they changed the matrix, they said it was an attempt to get more states on board with selling the game.  I'm not sure how that's coming along, but that's what it's gonna take to get the JP to grow faster.

                    I still play Hot Lotto because it's still $1, and the JP is enough to change my life.

                      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                      Massachusetts
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                      Posted: September 28, 2013, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

                      Yeah, the population is high, but is anyone playing? What's the playing population?

                      I don't know what the sales were before the matrix change, but I don't get the thinking behind the change: go from 11M to 29M odds and hope for more play, when PB and MM are options? Didn't seem like a smart move.

                      I don't see a way forward for Hot Lotto. It's a bit different for MM situation, they're trying to compete with PB as top dog, but in a different way.

                      Yeah. It didn't make much sense for me to keep playing. I knew it was an RNG game and still liked it. I liked it because it felt like a 6/49 game that had jackpots growing faster after a certain level of jp. Now I don't like it.

                      That money's gone fo ever

                        maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                        Massachusetts
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                        Posted: September 28, 2013, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

                        Your analysis is right on maringoman. Tri State Megabucks Plus just to your north increases by 50K per draw and that's just Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Hot Lotto with 5 times the number of states participating can't do better than that? Seems like the Hot Lotto has tanked miserably. I used to play that game on a regular basis but no longer.

                        I also agree that the new MegaMillions matrix will end up tanking sales for them as well.

                        Yes msharkey2001 I remember when the news for the matrix change first surfaced earlier this year majority of LP members commenting dissaproved it. I used to get my Hot Lotto tickets in NH with a 20 game advanced play but since April I decided to stop. Maybe Hot Lotto will gain players who abandon MM once the matrix changes. We'll see.

                        That money's gone fo ever

                          maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                          Massachusetts
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                          Posted: September 28, 2013, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

                          That's an all-cash JP, and withholding taxes are paid.  So 25% of the federal taxes are paid, but I don't know if state tax is considered a withholding tax.

                          When they changed the matrix, they said it was an attempt to get more states on board with selling the game.  I'm not sure how that's coming along, but that's what it's gonna take to get the JP to grow faster.

                          I still play Hot Lotto because it's still $1, and the JP is enough to change my life.

                          Like I told msharkey2001 people might change their mind on Hot Lotto once the MM matrix changes on Oct 22. 

                          Good luck in Hot Lotto HoLeeKau 

                          That money's gone fo ever

                            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                            Economy class
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                            Posted: September 28, 2013, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

                            How about a pick 6 out of 100 with 2 bonus balls of 50?

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                              Posted: September 28, 2013, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

                              How about a pick 6 out of 100 with 2 bonus balls of 50?

                              OK, but only in Aruba.