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Is Mega Millions paying ?? Or are the odds just too high?

Topic closed. 15 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Editgap.

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Posted: November 29, 2013, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

There have been NO JACKPOT winners yet.  I count 12 2nd place wins and 1 BONUS 2nd place win since the change of the game.  While Powerball has had multiple jackpot winners, and 2 times as many 2nd place wins in the same amount of time.   

So are the ODDS just too high?  I kinda think they may be, I am wondering if we WILL see a jackpot winner?  Or if it will just grow & grow with no winner... Blue Thinking

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: November 29, 2013, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

    With five 5+0 winners the last drawing and only 15 possible megaballs, can there still be any doubt about there being a MM jackpot winner in the near future? Wink

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: November 29, 2013, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

      According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.

      Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.

      I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens Wink

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        Posted: November 30, 2013, 5:25 am - IP Logged

        According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.

        Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.

        I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens Wink

        Great point! Its moving just as slow as ever, or maybe even slower.

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
          Economy class
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          Posted: November 30, 2013, 6:01 am - IP Logged

          When the jackpot is up to a billion, I will buy one, just one, online ticket somewhere on internet.

            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
            Los Angeles, California
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            Posted: November 30, 2013, 9:21 am - IP Logged

            According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.

            Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.

            I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens Wink

            According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones.

            Unless you've invented a time machine, there is 0% chance of a winner on previous draws! Wink

            The probability of having a winner for an upcoming draw is independent of past draws, and is based on projected sales. There is a probability of about 15% that there will be a winner on 12/3 based on projected sales of $43.3M.

            Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws. If you want to take a historical view and talk in terms of cumulative probability, there is a probability of about 74% that there would be a winner by 12/3 based on total accumulated sales of $345.8M since 10/22. Previous draws would have succeedingly less cumulative probability.

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
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              Posted: November 30, 2013, 11:00 am - IP Logged

              According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones.

              Unless you've invented a time machine, there is 0% chance of a winner on previous draws! Wink

              The probability of having a winner for an upcoming draw is independent of past draws, and is based on projected sales. There is a probability of about 15% that there will be a winner on 12/3 based on projected sales of $43.3M.

              Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws. If you want to take a historical view and talk in terms of cumulative probability, there is a probability of about 74% that there would be a winner by 12/3 based on total accumulated sales of $345.8M since 10/22. Previous draws would have succeedingly less cumulative probability.

              JonD, we all know there is a 0% chance of a winner in a previous draw but the lottery (or at least MUSL) looks at the cumulative probability this way (see point 2 at the bottom of any recent official Powerball jackpot estimate sheet...they call it "cumulative coverage").

              "Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws."

              No, you're right, but it is possible to include draws with different odds because the draws are independent and we are looking for a probability related to the same event (winning MM jackpot). The calculation can actually take multiple values and since coverage is more than just lambda it is easy to make the adjustment. MUSL does not calculate cumulative probability based on total accumulated sales. They use a formula based on the average of coverage adjusted to the number of rolls. The results difference between the two become significant after more drawings. If you do not include the drawings before the matrix change, there is actually a higher cumulative probability of a winner up to the next draw (MUSL projects sales of $46.5 million for 12/3) at 87.28% versus 86.44% with pre-change drawings. I am inclined to believe the actual value is on the lower side, thus my inclusion.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
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                Posted: November 30, 2013, 11:15 am - IP Logged

                JonD, we all know there is a 0% chance of a winner in a previous draw but the lottery (or at least MUSL) looks at the cumulative probability this way (see point 2 at the bottom of any recent official Powerball jackpot estimate sheet...they call it "cumulative coverage").

                "Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws."

                No, you're right, but it is possible to include draws with different odds because the draws are independent and we are looking for a probability related to the same event (winning MM jackpot). The calculation can actually take multiple values and since coverage is more than just lambda it is easy to make the adjustment. MUSL does not calculate cumulative probability based on total accumulated sales. They use a formula based on the average of coverage adjusted to the number of rolls. The results difference between the two become significant after more drawings. If you do not include the drawings before the matrix change, there is actually a higher cumulative probability of a winner up to the next draw (MUSL projects sales of $46.5 million for 12/3) at 87.28% versus 86.44% with pre-change drawings. I am inclined to believe the actual value is on the lower side, thus my inclusion.

                Where do you get $46.5M projected sales? Is that including Megaplier sales? Megaplier does not contribute to the jackpot, nor does it increase chances.

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
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                  Posted: November 30, 2013, 11:18 am - IP Logged

                  Where do you get $46.5M projected sales? Is that including Megaplier sales? Megaplier does not contribute to the jackpot, nor does it increase chances.

                  MUSL jackpot estimation sheet issued yesterday. I get all my MM/PB projections from official sheets. That is their forecast for jackpot-contributing sales. Lately they have been over-estimating sales though, a couple of jackpots ago they didn't even have enough money to fund the advertised jackpot.

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    Cupcake10's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg

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                    Posted: November 30, 2013, 11:32 am - IP Logged

                    The odds are just simply ridiculous!

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                      Posted: November 30, 2013, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

                      When the jackpot is up to a billion, I will buy one, just one, online ticket somewhere on internet.

                      WOW, could you imagine you WIN a BILLION dollar jackpot, BEFORE taxes... Eek

                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        Posted: December 1, 2013, 4:06 pm - IP Logged
                          DC81's avatar - batman39
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                          Posted: December 2, 2013, 3:16 am - IP Logged

                          Well, it's close...

                          They slashed payouts for every sub-jackpot tier except the second which I'm sure that along with the massive odds increase (as if they weren't massive already) turned a lot of people off, also doesn't help that a lot less money is going into the jackpot thanks to the changes and it's rising slower than ever. The cash option is currently only 54% (rounded) of the annuity amount where as before it was up to 69% (rounded) and I think slightly higher at a point or two. Less cash going in = much lower jackpot than before.

                          IMO by the end of next year they'll be messing with it again just like what was done with Powerball. They've really screwed it up.

                          You can't predict random.

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                            Posted: December 7, 2013, 8:22 am - IP Logged

                            Still no Jackpot..... the plot thickens....

                              sully16's avatar - sharan
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                              Posted: December 8, 2013, 10:51 am - IP Logged

                              Way to high

                              Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                              For a lead role in a cage?

                               

                                                                          From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"