How Much Money Do You Spend Playing the Lottery in a Week?Prev Topic Next Topic

Jon D

Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103,809
January 5, 2011
1,530 Posts
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Feb 8, 2014, 3:33 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Feb 8, 2014
JonD, have you actually ever taken statistics, or do you just use Wikipedia as your trusted source? There is the temptation for me to quit responding to your idiotic posts, but I trudge on, hoping one day that you will get your head out of lala-land.

I am not talking about a single draw payout- that would be inaccurate. Using the example I posted, if someone won the jackpot they wouldn't get $22,658,656 or whatever...they would get the whole amount. I know what EV is and exactly how to calculate it, what it can and cannot be used for.

The term "long-term average" is deceptive in itself, as this varies game to game. Depending on the game's variance, it's "long-term" may not be so long at all. If you apply the analysis to one game, you must apply it to them all. I think that's where you are missing the point. No matter how meaningless this seems, it's still the way of the stats. This is what I do and it works.

Reiterating what I said earlier, people poke fun at those who only play during high jackpots, but how is this any worse than being convinced your method of picking numbers will help you win? I can prove mathematically that my way is least negative, but you cannot prove mathematically that your number-picking is superior (at least, I haven't seen anyone perform within statistical significance). I can also prove mathematically that it is better to play in 1 draw versus multiple, yet people are convinced that is the worst way to play. There are opinions and then there are facts. I try to play the lottery with facts....not necessarily because it will give me an edge, but just because it is the most optimal way to play such a bad bet.

Prove me wrong, using mathematics, and I'll concede my point.

Not wanting to admit I've already proven you wrong on your application of EV I see. I'm not surprised. Did you show your work to your professor yet? Hmmm? If you did, I'm sure he/she would say, "Oh LottoMetro, how many times have I told you, using EV in relation to jackpot lottery games is a fool's errand."

And you're doubling down and sticking with that garbage number $22,658,656 for your hypothetical example? That's very disappointing.

What operation in their right mind would offer a jackpot game with 1-in-25,000,000 odds and an ongoing top prize of $25,000,000? There's no profit to cover the cost of running the game. How applicable and meaningful is this crude example to someone playing PB/MM? Not at all, zero, nada. It is junk math.

So you can't just look at a single draw like that and use that prize amount over and over. The real EV number for your hypothetical game or a real jackpot lottery game would be the long term average, taking into account much lower starting JP and rollover increments based on prize share percentages, amount of other players wagers, etc. $22,658,656 is a garbage number, just like any EV number you would attach to a single PB/MM draw.

And lastly, not sure why you're drifting off topic again, talking about picking numbers, except to distract from the topic of discussion. But for what it's worth, and I've said many times in the past, I don't believe in picking numbers or systems for picking numbers. You must have me confused with someone else. Your brain is a bit frazzled right now, I understand.

adelaide sa
Australia
Member #37,135
April 11, 2006
3,341 Posts
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Feb 8, 2014, 3:38 pm

this is my JAN balance

day	spent	won	profit / loss
monday	19.2	0	-19.2
tue	6	14.15	8.15
wed	24	56.95	32.95
thur	14.8	0	-14.8
sat	20.8	0	-20.8
pools	8.8	0	-8.8
sup66	26	0	-26
total	119.6	71.1	-48.5

<div_prefs id="div_prefs">

" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968

LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
Member #146,338
September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
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Feb 8, 2014, 4:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Jon D on Feb 8, 2014
Not wanting to admit I've already proven you wrong on your application of EV I see. I'm not surprised. Did you show your work to your professor yet? Hmmm? If you did, I'm sure he/she would say, "Oh LottoMetro, how many times have I told you, using EV in relation to jackpot lottery games is a fool's errand."

And you're doubling down and sticking with that garbage number $22,658,656 for your hypothetical example? That's very disappointing.

What operation in their right mind would offer a jackpot game with 1-in-25,000,000 odds and an ongoing top prize of $25,000,000? There's no profit to cover the cost of running the game. How applicable and meaningful is this crude example to someone playing PB/MM? Not at all, zero, nada. It is junk math.

So you can't just look at a single draw like that and use that prize amount over and over. The real EV number for your hypothetical game or a real jackpot lottery game would be the long term average, taking into account much lower starting JP and rollover increments based on prize share percentages, amount of other players wagers, etc. $22,658,656 is a garbage number, just like any EV number you would attach to a single PB/MM draw.

And lastly, not sure why you're drifting off topic again, talking about picking numbers, except to distract from the topic of discussion. But for what it's worth, and I've said many times in the past, I don't believe in picking numbers or systems for picking numbers. You must have me confused with someone else. Your brain is a bit frazzled right now, I understand.

The fact that you nick and pick at literally everything in my posts shows how insecure you are. Ever since I joined this forum you have either directly or indirectly mocked virtually anything I post that doesn't align with your opinion of lottery mathematics. The jackpot/odds I provided were not intended to be a starting jackpot or even a real one. It was just an example for Pete's sake. If you REALLY want me to go to the trouble of writing out a PERFECT example, then sure I can do that. But then you will whine that it's all gobbledygook and not unintelligent enough. Since you take everything personal and as literal as you do, maybe you need to take a break from responding to my posts. I know that I've about had it with your nonsense.

The real EV number for your hypothetical game or a real jackpot lottery game would be the long term average, taking into account much lower starting JP and rollover increments based on prize share percentages, amount of other players wagers, etc. $22,658,656 is a garbage number, just like any EV number you would attach to a single PB/MM draw.

There you go again, making blanket statements with no math to back you up or disprove me. That number I posted is the result of a Poisson formula for expected jackpot value based on number of expected winners. There is no garbage to that. The results are the same whether you use multiple draws or not. Why? Because every draw is INDEPENDENT. You also seem to confuse empircal to theoretical results. Short-term empircal results are useless other than for theoretical confirmation, because over the long run they will converge with the theoretical results. The number I posted is the expected value for every time the sales and jackpot are at that point. It doesn't matter what sales or prize took place before or after. It still holds true.

Here's the lottery phone number: (515) 453-1400

Please take advantage of it and get some help. I can't help you because I don't have a degree in Special Education.

Good day!

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
allwins

United States
Member #150,729
December 29, 2013
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Feb 8, 2014, 5:15 pm

I believe that everyone who plays the JP on any level expects to win something otherwise folks would not play.

Mathmaticial facts does not guarantee better winnings or most mathematicians would hit the big drawings.

However, I know that mathematical facts play a significant role among others methods if players decide to make it out of a paying venture (part/full job);

such as Pick 3, Pick 4, Cash 5 and state lotteries only.

The idea of winning a large jackpot for most is a borrowed fantasy not consciously intended to be realized. Just think about the statements of the actual large JP winners.

Scratch offs can be easier to win but not as much fun as picking your own numbers for other JP.

I like to have FUN and win! Once is becomes work and bothersome boring formulas-I am out!
Jon D

Los Angeles, California
United States
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January 5, 2011
1,530 Posts
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Feb 8, 2014, 7:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Feb 8, 2014
The fact that you nick and pick at literally everything in my posts shows how insecure you are. Ever since I joined this forum you have either directly or indirectly mocked virtually anything I post that doesn't align with your opinion of lottery mathematics. The jackpot/odds I provided were not intended to be a starting jackpot or even a real one. It was just an example for Pete's sake. If you REALLY want me to go to the trouble of writing out a PERFECT example, then sure I can do that. But then you will whine that it's all gobbledygook and not unintelligent enough. Since you take everything personal and as literal as you do, maybe you need to take a break from responding to my posts. I know that I've about had it with your nonsense.

The real EV number for your hypothetical game or a real jackpot lottery game would be the long term average, taking into account much lower starting JP and rollover increments based on prize share percentages, amount of other players wagers, etc. $22,658,656 is a garbage number, just like any EV number you would attach to a single PB/MM draw.

There you go again, making blanket statements with no math to back you up or disprove me. That number I posted is the result of a Poisson formula for expected jackpot value based on number of expected winners. There is no garbage to that. The results are the same whether you use multiple draws or not. Why? Because every draw is INDEPENDENT. You also seem to confuse empircal to theoretical results. Short-term empircal results are useless other than for theoretical confirmation, because over the long run they will converge with the theoretical results. The number I posted is the expected value for every time the sales and jackpot are at that point. It doesn't matter what sales or prize took place before or after. It still holds true.

Here's the lottery phone number: (515) 453-1400

Please take advantage of it and get some help. I can't help you because I don't have a degree in Special Education.

Good day!

Whoa! Settle down LottoMetro. Don't blow a gasket now.

So you don't like nitpicking of posts? Oh isn't that the pot calling the kettle black. The historical record is there, of you doing that to myself and many others on LP. You can dish it out but can't take it? Hmmm? Then maybe you should stop doing that yourself.

And also for the record, and the historical record is there, I respond to you when you are making false statements and misinforming the LP populace. There's been about 6 or 7 times now I've had to correct you. And each time, you using mathematical jibberish to try and intimidate and squelch discussion. But that fails, even though you assert with an arrogant condescending attitude that you are right and someone else is wrong, even when you're wrong. That's your modus operandi. That was evident from your very first posts on LP, revealing what kind of person you are.

So let this be a lesson to you. Stop being an intellectual bully. Stop trying to nitpick on the posts and intimidate peaceful LP members. And talk to someone about your personality disorder, seriously.

You know, you remind me of certain kinds of people you run into at the poker tables. They raise or go all-in on every hand, every turn of the cards. Bluffing excessively, stealing pots. Finally, some people get fed up with it and call them on their BS and bust their arse. Then they leave the table everyone goes, "Whew! Thank god that a-hole is gone!" Back to having fun!
onlymoney

United States
Member #128,784
June 2, 2012
5,427 Posts
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Feb 8, 2014, 10:25 pm

The bottom line is that If you don't have ALL the correct numbers, you won't win a JP. What happens "outside" those perimeters has no bearing on the odds. They never change.

World War Three could commence during tonight's PB drawing. The odds against you winning will stay the same.

Or, 3 billion people decided to play tonight's PB game in the past 2 days. The odds against you winning will stay the same. There may be more winners splitting the JP, but even this has no bearing on the 175 million foot wall you have to climb over.
Lucky Loser

Texas
United States
Member #86,151
January 30, 2010
1,889 Posts
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Feb 9, 2014, 12:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on Feb 8, 2014
The bottom line is that If you don't have ALL the correct numbers, you won't win a JP. What happens "outside" those perimeters has no bearing on the odds. They never change.

World War Three could commence during tonight's PB drawing. The odds against you winning will stay the same.

Or, 3 billion people decided to play tonight's PB game in the past 2 days. The odds against you winning will stay the same. There may be more winners splitting the JP, but even this has no bearing on the 175 million foot wall you have to climb over.

Absolutely, and they key word in your very last sentence is may. If it was such that every single combination was sold and then it started over , again, with selling all of them it would be a sealed deal to have one winner each draw so long as it sold out. As it stands, repeat losing numbers along with not selling out will prevail which causes the roll overs...no winners.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
PrisonerSix

Baton Rouge, LA
United States
Member #4,602
May 7, 2004
1,195 Posts
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Feb 9, 2014, 6:56 pm

I spend $4-$7 a week depending. I don't play Powerball or MegaMillions myself anymore unless the jackpot breaks $100 million. However, I do have a lottery pool that's $4 every 2 weeks($2/week) that plays Powerball, Lotto, and MegaMillions. We've probably spent more than we have won, but we keep trying.

Prisoner Six

"I am not a number, I am a free man!"
psykomo

United States
Member #4,877
May 30, 2004
5,289 Posts
Offline

Feb 9, 2014, 8:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by allwins on Feb 7, 2014
How much money have you spent in a week/month/year playing the lottery?

Are your winnings (>) more than your investments?

Does the financial loss outweigh the winnings?

What are your favorite games to play?

How often do you play?

Do you buy more tickets when the lotto grows to 100+Million status?

awinzzzzwin^^^^??????

(1) how much money have u spent??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

(2) are your winning(>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>)?

(3) do financial loss outweigh UR win (>>>>>PLEASE>PLEASE>DON't AGREE<R>disagree W/UR>>>POLL!!!!!

(4) What RUR favorite games 2 PLAY????????please specify>>>BEFORE or after "DARK" games U>LIKE?????

(5) How often do you play with play?????????please specify>>>with>>>>>>>>>>>>>>UR>>SELF?????????

(6) Do you buy more tickets when D lotto grows to 100+Million status & D POLL>>>>grow$$$BIGGER??????

allwins:

u git D...JD Psykomo POLL of D 2014 year!

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