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Quick pick questions

Topic closed. 17 replies. Last post 3 years ago by bigbear29.

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Posted: March 11, 2014, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

I'm wondering, does the quick pick machine pick more than one winning ticket nationwide? My impression is that it doesn't. However, the past couple of PBs I've noticed that there are a bunch of second place winners. I don't know if they were all QP but its kind of strange for that many people to winners to get the second prize but miss the jackpot. Anyhow, can someone shed a light on how the lottery machines work, hiw the network is setup and etc.

 

Thanks

    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
    Texas
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    Posted: March 11, 2014, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

    It is very possible for lottery terminals to print duplicate numbers from QP's. They are random number generators and if they controled the numbers produced so there weren't duplicates, then they wouldn't be random.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


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      Posted: March 11, 2014, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

      No 1 knows..

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        Posted: March 12, 2014, 5:09 am - IP Logged

        It is very possible for lottery terminals to print duplicate numbers from QP's. They are random number generators and if they controled the numbers produced so there weren't duplicates, then they wouldn't be random.

        Interesting. I've always assumed although the numbers are randomly drawn the system would self check and not quick pick two tickets of the exact same number combinations. If that's is the case, the system itself is effectively reducing the number of possible winners by drawing multiple tickets with same numbers while still maximizing Overall earnings.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: March 12, 2014, 5:22 am - IP Logged

          Interesting. I've always assumed although the numbers are randomly drawn the system would self check and not quick pick two tickets of the exact same number combinations. If that's is the case, the system itself is effectively reducing the number of possible winners by drawing multiple tickets with same numbers while still maximizing Overall earnings.

          Buying lottery tickets is not like buying raffle tickets from the same terminal.  The numbers on the raffle tickets do come from a central computer because all the numbers are unique and there are no duplicates.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

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            Posted: March 12, 2014, 8:11 am - IP Logged

            Buying lottery tickets is not like buying raffle tickets from the same terminal.  The numbers on the raffle tickets do come from a central computer because all the numbers are unique and there are no duplicates.

            Yeah, that's an awful system from player's perspective. Once a certain combination of numbers are drawn the system should automatically put those combinations out of circulation unless they're manually picked. That way players have a much greater chance of winning (statistically) but then again the lottery's main goal is to have as few winners as possible while yielding as much earning.

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              Posted: March 12, 2014, 10:08 am - IP Logged

              That is why I do not like quick picks, but you have to play them anyway along with your own numbers.  Also, the winning numbers seem to come up in the same locations.

              Mega millions numbers:  March 11      9     14   56   57   69 - 10

                                                      March  7      11   13   51   57   69 - 1

               

              Did the computer see that the last two number sets did not have alot of winners?


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                Posted: March 12, 2014, 10:32 am - IP Logged

                IT  IS  A  MECHANICAL BALL  MACHINE,   YES  THERE  CAN  BE   A  NUMBER OF  QUIK PICKS  THAT  ARE  THE  SAME.

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                  Posted: March 12, 2014, 10:36 am - IP Logged

                  Or may-be alot of quick picks that are the same?


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                    Posted: March 12, 2014, 10:39 am - IP Logged

                    power  ball  and  mega  are  not  computer  drawn   numbers   they  are  mechanical  ball   drawings,   i  would  never  play   a  computerized  game,  no  where  no  how,  your  a  born loser  if  u  do.

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                      Posted: March 12, 2014, 11:48 am - IP Logged

                      Depending on sales, there can be many duplicates. I know of 2 ways to approximate the number of duplicates sold, the simplest being:

                      ( 0.5 * (tickets sold ^ 2) ) / combinations

                      And you take the square root of this to get the standard error.

                      So for 15,000,000 tickets sold in Powerball, we would estimate that on average, 642,037 ± 801 duplicates were produced. This assumes independent draws of course. It does not account for conscious selection (i.e. people choosing birthday numbers) or a glitch in the terminals. Note that this estimate is higher than using the second, more complex method, which gives the estimate at 624,102 ± 790. So the actual value is probably somewhere in between.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                        Posted: March 12, 2014, 1:51 pm - IP Logged

                        Or may-be alot of quick picks that are the same?

                        Perscisely. By issuing same tickets to players the lottery is effectively reducing the chances of winning when playing QP. Sure you can have winners at some point but chances are very slim and are offset by the earnings from other players. It's an idiotic system obviously designed to have as few winners as possible.

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                          Posted: March 12, 2014, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

                          Depending on sales, there can be many duplicates. I know of 2 ways to approximate the number of duplicates sold, the simplest being:

                          ( 0.5 * (tickets sold ^ 2) ) / combinations

                          And you take the square root of this to get the standard error.

                          So for 15,000,000 tickets sold in Powerball, we would estimate that on average, 642,037 ± 801 duplicates were produced. This assumes independent draws of course. It does not account for conscious selection (i.e. people choosing birthday numbers) or a glitch in the terminals. Note that this estimate is higher than using the second, more complex method, which gives the estimate at 624,102 ± 790. So the actual value is probably somewhere in between.

                          That doesn't account for games without winners. Theoretically, all combinations should be issued at any given moment which should lead to a winner in every drawing (assuming the number of tickets sold is very high).

                            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                            Posted: March 12, 2014, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

                            Perscisely. By issuing same tickets to players the lottery is effectively reducing the chances of winning when playing QP. Sure you can have winners at some point but chances are very slim and are offset by the earnings from other players. It's an idiotic system obviously designed to have as few winners as possible.

                            By issuing same tickets to players the lottery is effectively reducing the chances of winning when playing QP.

                            Well, it does not reduce your chance of winning....that stays the same regardless of whether you choose QP or your own numbers. The reason is that draws are independent. You have an equal chance of having duplicates using self-picks as QPs, possibly higher if you play popular/birthday numbers. What it does reduce is the probability of there being any winner and increases the probability of there being multiple winners. If there were winners often, the jackpot would not roll to higher levels, leading to lower sales.

                            There are some lotteries with 'liability caps' that will only sell 1 of each combination, typically in Pick3/Pick4 games.

                            Your second response is incorrect, and you seem to be confusing dependent vs. independent. Drawings are independent, whereas games like scratchers are dependent. Scratchers have guaranteed winners because there is a finite number of prizes in the set of possibilites....basically picking "without replacement." Drawings are independent because combinations are drawn "with replacement," so there can be no winners or many winners. To sell all possible combinations in an independent drawing, the sales would have to exceed the total number of combinations several times over.

                            Think of it like this

                            Draw a card from a deck but don't put it back (drawing "without replacement"). The probability of a particular card on the next draw has changed, because now there is one less card in the deck.

                            Start over and draw a card from a deck, then put it back (drawing "with replacement"). What is the probability of drawing a particular card on the next draw? Exactly the same as it was when you drew the card the first time, because you put the card back. With this in mind, try to imagine how many times you would need to repeat this before you have drawn all the possible cards! This describes lottery drawings.

                            The formula I posted assumes independent drawings, which means it applies to any and only draw-with-replacement games.

                            Hope this clarifies Thumbs Up

                            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                            2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                              Posted: March 12, 2014, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

                              By issuing same tickets to players the lottery is effectively reducing the chances of winning when playing QP.

                               

                              I agree, it does reduce your chances of winning, because all of the combinations are not coming out, so that increases the odds of no winners.