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What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 6 years ago by sandnan.

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Likewise, what number is too low to play for a last ball?  And the 2/3/4 balls in between?  I am assuming numbers are in numerical order, as reported after the draw, not in the order they are drawn.  I'm trying to determine the maximum range of allowable balls in the system I am working on.

Here are the percentages of how often a ball will land in each position, for the megamillions:

MM12345
16.667nononono
26.3060.360nonono
35.9610.6910.015nono
45.6300.9930.0430.000no
55.3121.2690.0840.0020.000
65.0091.5180.1360.0040.000
74.7191.7420.1980.0080.000
84.4411.9430.2690.0140.000
94.1762.1210.3480.0210.000
103.9232.2780.4340.0320.001
113.6812.4140.5260.0440.001
123.4512.5310.6220.0600.002
133.2322.6300.7230.0790.003
143.0242.7110.8270.1010.004
152.8252.7760.9330.1270.006
162.6372.8251.0410.1560.008
172.4582.8601.1490.1880.011
182.2892.8821.2580.2250.014
192.1282.8911.3650.2650.018
201.9762.8881.4710.3090.022
211.8322.8741.5750.3570.028
221.6972.8501.6770.4080.035
231.5692.8171.7750.4640.042
241.4482.7751.8690.5230.051
251.3342.7251.9590.5860.062
261.2282.6692.0440.6530.073
271.1272.6062.1240.7230.087
281.0332.5372.1980.7970.102
290.9452.4632.2670.8730.119
300.8632.3842.3290.9530.138
310.7872.3022.3841.0350.159
320.7152.2172.4331.1200.182
330.6492.1282.4741.2070.208
340.5872.0382.5091.2960.237
350.5301.9462.5351.3870.269
360.4771.8532.5551.4790.303
370.4281.7602.5661.5720.341
380.3831.6662.5701.6660.383
390.3411.5722.5661.7600.428
400.3031.4792.5551.8530.477
410.2691.3872.5351.9460.530
420.2371.2962.5092.0380.587
430.2081.2072.4742.1280.649
440.1821.1202.4332.2170.715
450.1591.0352.3842.3020.787
460.1380.9532.3292.3840.863
470.1190.8732.2672.4630.945
480.1020.7972.1982.5371.033
490.0870.7232.1242.6061.127
500.0730.6532.0442.6691.228
510.0620.5861.9592.7251.334
520.0510.5231.8692.7751.448
530.0420.4641.7752.8171.569
540.0350.4081.6772.8501.697
550.0280.3571.5752.8741.832
560.0220.3091.4712.8881.976
570.0180.2651.3652.8912.128
580.0140.2251.2582.8822.289
590.0110.1881.1492.8602.458
600.0080.1561.0412.8252.637
610.0060.1270.9332.7762.825
620.0040.1010.8272.7113.024
630.0030.0790.7232.6303.232
640.0020.0600.6222.5313.451
650.0010.0440.5262.4143.681
660.0010.0320.4342.2783.923
670.0000.0210.3482.1214.176
680.0000.0140.2691.9434.441
690.0000.0080.1981.7424.719
700.0000.0040.1361.5185.009
710.0000.0020.0841.2695.312
72no0.0000.0430.9935.630
73nono0.0150.6915.961
74nonono0.3606.306
75nononono6.667
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    Zimbabwe
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    4530 Posts
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    This is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.

    On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.

    The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.

    If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.

    Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.

    Just a guess.

     

    *first column numbers 01 to 12

    MM    DD    YYYY    1      2     3     4     5   
    03    14    2014    07*    20    40    54    69    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    3
    03    11    2014    09*    14    56    57    69    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    4
    03    07    2014    11*    13    51    57    69    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    4
    03    04    2014    10*    29    31    35    45    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    2
    02    28    2014    03*    31    50    58    59    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    4
    02    25    2014    12*    18    25    35    66    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
    02    21    2014    23     29    32    45    46    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
    02    18    2014    23     29    31    37    70    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    5
    02    14    2014    20     28    35    71    72    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    3
    02    11    2014    43     64    67    71    73    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    2
    02    07    2014    11*    21    23    35    64    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    3
    02    04    2014    25     44    49    60    73    Mega Ball:    09    Megaplier:    3
    01    31    2014    03*    09    13    47    52    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    4
    01    28    2014    07*    16    28    53    60    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
    01    24    2014    22     45    46    47    65    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    5
    01    21    2014    08*    23    33    45    52    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    4
    01    17    2014    01*    10    26    31    51    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    4
    01    14    2014    04*    23    26    62    69    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    3
    01    10    2014    08*    28    36    37    57    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
    01    07    2014    13     34    56    62    64    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    5
    01    03    2014    22     24    25    40    70    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    5
    12    31    2013    08*    12    34    52    58    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
    12    27    2013    04*    15    35    48    49    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    5
    12    24    2013    23     34    53    58    73    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
    12    20    2013    03*    04    31    49    57    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    2
    12    17    2013    08*    14    17    20    39    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    4
    12    13    2013    19     24    26    27    70    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    2
    12    10    2013    05*    12    22    41    65    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    2
    12    06    2013    11*    29    44    63    64    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    3
    12    03    2013    07*    12    41    44    59    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    3
    11    29    2013    09*    41    43    47    57    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    4
    11    26    2013    27     44    59    74    75    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    5
    11    22    2013    17     23    35    36    44    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
    11    19    2013    14*    15    29    49    63    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
    11    15    2013    25     44    49    54    63    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    4
    11    12    2013    20     30    32    42    71    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
    11    08    2013    41     42    51    57    65    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    2
    11    05    2013    02*    11    42    64    74    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    5
    11    01    2013    32     35    49    62    67    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    5
    10    29    2013    20     33    50    53    54    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    3
    10    25    2013    06*    16    45    54    60    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    2
    10    22    2013    02*    03    19    52    71    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    5

    .

      Avatar

      Zimbabwe
      Member #21
      December 7, 2001
      4530 Posts
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      Power Ball's first column half split is about (01 to 10) and (11 to 55).

      We say about, because the split point is 10, exactly.

      This gives the range 01 to 10 a slight advantage.

      .

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        Thread Starter

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        Member #35334
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        171 Posts
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        The sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220%  (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)

        Is 50% the cut off?  Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?

        Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.

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          Zimbabwe
          Member #21
          December 7, 2001
          4530 Posts
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          The sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220%  (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)

          Is 50% the cut off?  Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?

          Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.

          No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).

          The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly.

          .

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            Thread Starter

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            Member #35334
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            171 Posts
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            @jade, here is my powerball percent chart.  The other table format fell apart on copy/pasta, so this may also look equally bad.  I figure 1 thru 7 = 48.087% of the draws for the first number.

            PB12345
            18.475nononono
            27.8900.584nonono
            37.3361.1070.031nono
            46.8121.5720.0890.001no
            56.3171.9820.1720.0040.000
            65.8492.3400.2750.0110.000
            75.4082.6490.3970.0210.000
            84.9922.9120.5350.0360.001
            94.6003.1320.6850.0560.001
            104.2323.3120.8460.0820.003
            113.8873.4551.0140.1150.004
            123.5633.5631.1880.1550.007
            133.2603.6391.3640.2020.010
            142.9763.6851.5420.2570.014
            152.7123.7041.7200.3200.020
            162.4653.6981.8940.3910.027
            172.2363.6692.0640.4700.036
            182.0233.6202.2280.5570.048
            191.8253.5522.3840.6520.061
            201.6433.4682.5310.7550.077
            211.4743.3702.6680.8650.097
            221.3193.2592.7940.9830.120
            231.1773.1382.9071.1070.146
            241.0463.0073.0071.2380.177
            250.9262.8693.0931.3750.212
            260.8172.7253.1641.5160.253
            270.7182.5763.2201.6620.299
            280.6282.4243.2601.8110.351
            290.5472.2713.2841.9630.409
            300.4742.1173.2932.1170.474
            310.4091.9633.2842.2710.547
            320.3511.8113.2602.4240.628
            330.2991.6623.2202.5760.718
            340.2531.5163.1642.7250.817
            350.2121.3753.0932.8690.926
            360.1771.2383.0073.0071.046
            370.1461.1072.9073.1381.177
            380.1200.9832.7943.2591.319
            390.0970.8652.6683.3701.474
            400.0770.7552.5313.4681.643
            410.0610.6522.3843.5521.825
            420.0480.5572.2283.6202.023
            430.0360.4702.0643.6692.236
            440.0270.3911.8943.6982.465
            450.0200.3201.7203.7042.712
            460.0140.2571.5423.6852.976
            470.0100.2021.3643.6393.260
            480.0070.1551.1883.5633.563
            490.0040.1151.0143.4553.887
            500.0030.0820.8463.3124.232
            510.0010.0560.6853.1324.600
            520.0010.0360.5352.9124.992
            530.0000.0210.3972.6495.408
            540.0000.0110.2752.3405.849
            550.0000.0040.1721.9826.317
            56no0.0010.0891.5726.812
            57nono0.0311.1077.336
            58nonono0.5847.890
            59nononono8.475
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              Thread Starter

              United States
              Member #35334
              March 16, 2006
              171 Posts
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              No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).

              The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly.

              Explain like I'm 5.  My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1.  Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5.  Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75.  The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN($A2-1,B$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE($A$2:$A$76,1)-$A2,LARGE($B$1:$F$1,1)-B$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"

              Is that formula correct?

               

              Edit:  Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers.  If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.

                Avatar

                Zimbabwe
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                4530 Posts
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                Explain like I'm 5.  My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1.  Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5.  Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75.  The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN($A2-1,B$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE($A$2:$A$76,1)-$A2,LARGE($B$1:$F$1,1)-B$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"

                Is that formula correct?

                 

                Edit:  Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers.  If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.

                looks correct for that approach.

                However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way.

                It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.

                .

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                  Thread Starter

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                  looks correct for that approach.

                  However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way.

                  It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.

                  Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"?  Because that would equal 1.408.  That falls between 24 and 25.

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                    Zimbabwe
                    Member #21
                    December 7, 2001
                    4530 Posts
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                    Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"?  Because that would equal 1.408.  That falls between 24 and 25.

                    no.

                    "...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75."

                    .

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                      no.

                      "...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75."

                      I believe that's what my chart illustrates:)   (hopefully)   If you ask me, "How many times does the number 23 fall as the second digit in MM?", I would reply, "It falls 2.817% of the time."  Each of my chart's columns add up to 100%.

                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        "What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)"

                        MM12345
                        16.667nononono
                        26.3060.360nonono
                        35.9610.6910.015nono
                        45.6300.9930.0430.000no
                        55.3121.2690.0840.0020.000

                        ...

                        Number 4 is too low as it will never be drawn as fifth ball. I posted that one longer ago? Any other number can be drawn in a winning combination as fifth ball. Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense. Look for "developer" in the members list, she has a website.

                          Avatar

                          Zimbabwe
                          Member #21
                          December 7, 2001
                          4530 Posts
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                          This is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.

                          On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.

                          The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.

                          If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.

                          Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.

                          Just a guess.

                           

                          *first column numbers 01 to 12

                          MM    DD    YYYY    1      2     3     4     5   
                          03    14    2014    07*    20    40    54    69    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    3
                          03    11    2014    09*    14    56    57    69    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    4
                          03    07    2014    11*    13    51    57    69    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    4
                          03    04    2014    10*    29    31    35    45    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    2
                          02    28    2014    03*    31    50    58    59    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    4
                          02    25    2014    12*    18    25    35    66    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
                          02    21    2014    23     29    32    45    46    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
                          02    18    2014    23     29    31    37    70    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    5
                          02    14    2014    20     28    35    71    72    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    3
                          02    11    2014    43     64    67    71    73    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    2
                          02    07    2014    11*    21    23    35    64    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    3
                          02    04    2014    25     44    49    60    73    Mega Ball:    09    Megaplier:    3
                          01    31    2014    03*    09    13    47    52    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    4
                          01    28    2014    07*    16    28    53    60    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
                          01    24    2014    22     45    46    47    65    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    5
                          01    21    2014    08*    23    33    45    52    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    4
                          01    17    2014    01*    10    26    31    51    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    4
                          01    14    2014    04*    23    26    62    69    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    3
                          01    10    2014    08*    28    36    37    57    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
                          01    07    2014    13     34    56    62    64    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    5
                          01    03    2014    22     24    25    40    70    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    5
                          12    31    2013    08*    12    34    52    58    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
                          12    27    2013    04*    15    35    48    49    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    5
                          12    24    2013    23     34    53    58    73    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
                          12    20    2013    03*    04    31    49    57    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    2
                          12    17    2013    08*    14    17    20    39    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    4
                          12    13    2013    19     24    26    27    70    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    2
                          12    10    2013    05*    12    22    41    65    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    2
                          12    06    2013    11*    29    44    63    64    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    3
                          12    03    2013    07*    12    41    44    59    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    3
                          11    29    2013    09*    41    43    47    57    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    4
                          11    26    2013    27     44    59    74    75    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    5
                          11    22    2013    17     23    35    36    44    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    3
                          11    19    2013    14*    15    29    49    63    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    3
                          11    15    2013    25     44    49    54    63    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    4
                          11    12    2013    20     30    32    42    71    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    5
                          11    08    2013    41     42    51    57    65    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    2
                          11    05    2013    02*    11    42    64    74    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    5
                          11    01    2013    32     35    49    62    67    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    5
                          10    29    2013    20     33    50    53    54    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    3
                          10    25    2013    06*    16    45    54    60    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    2
                          10    22    2013    02*    03    19    52    71    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    5

                          11 last night.

                          13 or greater is more likely now and will continue to be more and more each time it's not selected.

                          just a guess.

                          .

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                            Thread Starter

                            United States
                            Member #35334
                            March 16, 2006
                            171 Posts
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                            "Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense."  I agree.  The odds of 1-2-3-4-5 being drawn are the exact same odds as any other combination.  My chart ignores the order they are drawn, just the numerical order they are reported.

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                              Krypton
                              United States
                              Member #140098
                              March 11, 2013
                              911 Posts
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                              I'm surprised Jo one eon the prize. Ball 75 would be too high. Lol. Sorry guys had to say it