What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)Prev Topic Next Topic

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Mar 18, 2014, 1:02 am

Likewise, what number is too low to play for a last ball? And the 2/3/4 balls in between? I am assuming numbers are in numerical order, as reported after the draw, not in the order they are drawn. I'm trying to determine the maximum range of allowable balls in the system I am working on.

Here are the percentages of how often a ball will land in each position, for the megamillions:

MM	1	2	3	4	5
1	6.667	no	no	no	no
2	6.306	0.360	no	no	no
3	5.961	0.691	0.015	no	no
4	5.630	0.993	0.043	0.000	no
5	5.312	1.269	0.084	0.002	0.000
6	5.009	1.518	0.136	0.004	0.000
7	4.719	1.742	0.198	0.008	0.000
8	4.441	1.943	0.269	0.014	0.000
9	4.176	2.121	0.348	0.021	0.000
10	3.923	2.278	0.434	0.032	0.001
11	3.681	2.414	0.526	0.044	0.001
12	3.451	2.531	0.622	0.060	0.002
13	3.232	2.630	0.723	0.079	0.003
14	3.024	2.711	0.827	0.101	0.004
15	2.825	2.776	0.933	0.127	0.006
16	2.637	2.825	1.041	0.156	0.008
17	2.458	2.860	1.149	0.188	0.011
18	2.289	2.882	1.258	0.225	0.014
19	2.128	2.891	1.365	0.265	0.018
20	1.976	2.888	1.471	0.309	0.022
21	1.832	2.874	1.575	0.357	0.028
22	1.697	2.850	1.677	0.408	0.035
23	1.569	2.817	1.775	0.464	0.042
24	1.448	2.775	1.869	0.523	0.051
25	1.334	2.725	1.959	0.586	0.062
26	1.228	2.669	2.044	0.653	0.073
27	1.127	2.606	2.124	0.723	0.087
28	1.033	2.537	2.198	0.797	0.102
29	0.945	2.463	2.267	0.873	0.119
30	0.863	2.384	2.329	0.953	0.138
31	0.787	2.302	2.384	1.035	0.159
32	0.715	2.217	2.433	1.120	0.182
33	0.649	2.128	2.474	1.207	0.208
34	0.587	2.038	2.509	1.296	0.237
35	0.530	1.946	2.535	1.387	0.269
36	0.477	1.853	2.555	1.479	0.303
37	0.428	1.760	2.566	1.572	0.341
38	0.383	1.666	2.570	1.666	0.383
39	0.341	1.572	2.566	1.760	0.428
40	0.303	1.479	2.555	1.853	0.477
41	0.269	1.387	2.535	1.946	0.530
42	0.237	1.296	2.509	2.038	0.587
43	0.208	1.207	2.474	2.128	0.649
44	0.182	1.120	2.433	2.217	0.715
45	0.159	1.035	2.384	2.302	0.787
46	0.138	0.953	2.329	2.384	0.863
47	0.119	0.873	2.267	2.463	0.945
48	0.102	0.797	2.198	2.537	1.033
49	0.087	0.723	2.124	2.606	1.127
50	0.073	0.653	2.044	2.669	1.228
51	0.062	0.586	1.959	2.725	1.334
52	0.051	0.523	1.869	2.775	1.448
53	0.042	0.464	1.775	2.817	1.569
54	0.035	0.408	1.677	2.850	1.697
55	0.028	0.357	1.575	2.874	1.832
56	0.022	0.309	1.471	2.888	1.976
57	0.018	0.265	1.365	2.891	2.128
58	0.014	0.225	1.258	2.882	2.289
59	0.011	0.188	1.149	2.860	2.458
60	0.008	0.156	1.041	2.825	2.637
61	0.006	0.127	0.933	2.776	2.825
62	0.004	0.101	0.827	2.711	3.024
63	0.003	0.079	0.723	2.630	3.232
64	0.002	0.060	0.622	2.531	3.451
65	0.001	0.044	0.526	2.414	3.681
66	0.001	0.032	0.434	2.278	3.923
67	0.000	0.021	0.348	2.121	4.176
68	0.000	0.014	0.269	1.943	4.441
69	0.000	0.008	0.198	1.742	4.719
70	0.000	0.004	0.136	1.518	5.009
71	0.000	0.002	0.084	1.269	5.312
72	no	0.000	0.043	0.993	5.630
73	no	no	0.015	0.691	5.961
74	no	no	no	0.360	6.306
75	no	no	no	no	6.667

JADELottery

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:23 pm

This is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.

On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.

The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.

If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.

Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.

Just a guess.

*first column numbers 01 to 12

MM DD YYYY 1 2 3 4 5
03 14 2014 07* 20 40 54 69 Mega Ball: 12 Megaplier: 3
03 11 2014 09* 14 56 57 69 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 4
03 07 2014 11* 13 51 57 69 Mega Ball: 01 Megaplier: 4
03 04 2014 10* 29 31 35 45 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 2
02 28 2014 03* 31 50 58 59 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 4
02 25 2014 12* 18 25 35 66 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
02 21 2014 23 29 32 45 46 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
02 18 2014 23 29 31 37 70 Mega Ball: 14 Megaplier: 5
02 14 2014 20 28 35 71 72 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 3
02 11 2014 43 64 67 71 73 Mega Ball: 04 Megaplier: 2
02 07 2014 11* 21 23 35 64 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 3
02 04 2014 25 44 49 60 73 Mega Ball: 09 Megaplier: 3
01 31 2014 03* 09 13 47 52 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 4
01 28 2014 07* 16 28 53 60 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
01 24 2014 22 45 46 47 65 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 5
01 21 2014 08* 23 33 45 52 Mega Ball: 04 Megaplier: 4
01 17 2014 01* 10 26 31 51 Mega Ball: 11 Megaplier: 4
01 14 2014 04* 23 26 62 69 Mega Ball: 13 Megaplier: 3
01 10 2014 08* 28 36 37 57 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
01 07 2014 13 34 56 62 64 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 5
01 03 2014 22 24 25 40 70 Mega Ball: 05 Megaplier: 5
12 31 2013 08* 12 34 52 58 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
12 27 2013 04* 15 35 48 49 Mega Ball: 11 Megaplier: 5
12 24 2013 23 34 53 58 73 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
12 20 2013 03* 04 31 49 57 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 2
12 17 2013 08* 14 17 20 39 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 4
12 13 2013 19 24 26 27 70 Mega Ball: 12 Megaplier: 2
12 10 2013 05* 12 22 41 65 Mega Ball: 13 Megaplier: 2
12 06 2013 11* 29 44 63 64 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 3
12 03 2013 07* 12 41 44 59 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 3
11 29 2013 09* 41 43 47 57 Mega Ball: 05 Megaplier: 4
11 26 2013 27 44 59 74 75 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 5
11 22 2013 17 23 35 36 44 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
11 19 2013 14* 15 29 49 63 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
11 15 2013 25 44 49 54 63 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 4
11 12 2013 20 30 32 42 71 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
11 08 2013 41 42 51 57 65 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 2
11 05 2013 02* 11 42 64 74 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 5
11 01 2013 32 35 49 62 67 Mega Ball: 01 Megaplier: 5
10 29 2013 20 33 50 53 54 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 3
10 25 2013 06* 16 45 54 60 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 2
10 22 2013 02* 03 19 52 71 Mega Ball: 14 Megaplier: 5

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JADELottery

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:36 pm

Power Ball's first column half split is about (01 to 10) and (11 to 55).

We say about, because the split point is 10, exactly.

This gives the range 01 to 10 a slight advantage.

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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:36 pm

The sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220% (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)

Is 50% the cut off? Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?

Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.
JADELottery

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:43 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 18, 2014
The sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220% (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)

Is 50% the cut off? Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?

Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.

No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).

The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly.

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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:44 pm

@jade, here is my powerball percent chart. The other table format fell apart on copy/pasta, so this may also look equally bad. I figure 1 thru 7 = 48.087% of the draws for the first number.

PB	1	2	3	4	5
1	8.475	no	no	no	no
2	7.890	0.584	no	no	no
3	7.336	1.107	0.031	no	no
4	6.812	1.572	0.089	0.001	no
5	6.317	1.982	0.172	0.004	0.000
6	5.849	2.340	0.275	0.011	0.000
7	5.408	2.649	0.397	0.021	0.000
8	4.992	2.912	0.535	0.036	0.001
9	4.600	3.132	0.685	0.056	0.001
10	4.232	3.312	0.846	0.082	0.003
11	3.887	3.455	1.014	0.115	0.004
12	3.563	3.563	1.188	0.155	0.007
13	3.260	3.639	1.364	0.202	0.010
14	2.976	3.685	1.542	0.257	0.014
15	2.712	3.704	1.720	0.320	0.020
16	2.465	3.698	1.894	0.391	0.027
17	2.236	3.669	2.064	0.470	0.036
18	2.023	3.620	2.228	0.557	0.048
19	1.825	3.552	2.384	0.652	0.061
20	1.643	3.468	2.531	0.755	0.077
21	1.474	3.370	2.668	0.865	0.097
22	1.319	3.259	2.794	0.983	0.120
23	1.177	3.138	2.907	1.107	0.146
24	1.046	3.007	3.007	1.238	0.177
25	0.926	2.869	3.093	1.375	0.212
26	0.817	2.725	3.164	1.516	0.253
27	0.718	2.576	3.220	1.662	0.299
28	0.628	2.424	3.260	1.811	0.351
29	0.547	2.271	3.284	1.963	0.409
30	0.474	2.117	3.293	2.117	0.474
31	0.409	1.963	3.284	2.271	0.547
32	0.351	1.811	3.260	2.424	0.628
33	0.299	1.662	3.220	2.576	0.718
34	0.253	1.516	3.164	2.725	0.817
35	0.212	1.375	3.093	2.869	0.926
36	0.177	1.238	3.007	3.007	1.046
37	0.146	1.107	2.907	3.138	1.177
38	0.120	0.983	2.794	3.259	1.319
39	0.097	0.865	2.668	3.370	1.474
40	0.077	0.755	2.531	3.468	1.643
41	0.061	0.652	2.384	3.552	1.825
42	0.048	0.557	2.228	3.620	2.023
43	0.036	0.470	2.064	3.669	2.236
44	0.027	0.391	1.894	3.698	2.465
45	0.020	0.320	1.720	3.704	2.712
46	0.014	0.257	1.542	3.685	2.976
47	0.010	0.202	1.364	3.639	3.260
48	0.007	0.155	1.188	3.563	3.563
49	0.004	0.115	1.014	3.455	3.887
50	0.003	0.082	0.846	3.312	4.232
51	0.001	0.056	0.685	3.132	4.600
52	0.001	0.036	0.535	2.912	4.992
53	0.000	0.021	0.397	2.649	5.408
54	0.000	0.011	0.275	2.340	5.849
55	0.000	0.004	0.172	1.982	6.317
56	no	0.001	0.089	1.572	6.812
57	no	no	0.031	1.107	7.336
58	no	no	no	0.584	7.890
59	no	no	no	no	8.475

GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 18, 2014, 6:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 18, 2014
No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).

The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly.

Explain like I'm 5. My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1. Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5. Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75. The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN($A2-1,B$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE($A$2:$A$76,1)-$A2,LARGE($B$1:$F$1,1)-B$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"

Is that formula correct?

Edit: Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers. If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.
JADELottery

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Mar 18, 2014, 7:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 18, 2014
Explain like I'm 5. My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1. Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5. Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75. The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN($A2-1,B$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE($A$2:$A$76,1)-$A2,LARGE($B$1:$F$1,1)-B$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"

Is that formula correct?

Edit: Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers. If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.

looks correct for that approach.

However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way.

It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.

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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 18, 2014, 7:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 18, 2014
looks correct for that approach.

However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way.

It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.

Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"? Because that would equal 1.408. That falls between 24 and 25.
JADELottery

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Mar 18, 2014, 7:17 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 18, 2014
Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"? Because that would equal 1.408. That falls between 24 and 25.

no.

"...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75."

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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 18, 2014, 7:20 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 18, 2014
no.

"...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75."

I believe that's what my chart illustrates:) (hopefully) If you ask me, "How many times does the number 23 fall as the second digit in MM?", I would reply, "It falls 2.817% of the time." Each of my chart's columns add up to 100%.
SergeM

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Mar 19, 2014, 6:32 am

"What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)"

MM 1 2 3 4 5

1 6.667 no no no no

2 6.306 0.360 no no no

3 5.961 0.691 0.015 no no

4 5.630 0.993 0.043 0.000 no

5 5.312 1.269 0.084 0.002 0.000

...

Number 4 is too low as it will never be drawn as fifth ball. I posted that one longer ago? Any other number can be drawn in a winning combination as fifth ball. Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense. Look for "developer" in the members list, she has a website.
JADELottery

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Mar 19, 2014, 10:26 am

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 18, 2014
This is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.

On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.

The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.

If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.

Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.

Just a guess.

*first column numbers 01 to 12

MM DD YYYY 1 2 3 4 5
03 14 2014 07* 20 40 54 69 Mega Ball: 12 Megaplier: 3
03 11 2014 09* 14 56 57 69 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 4
03 07 2014 11* 13 51 57 69 Mega Ball: 01 Megaplier: 4
03 04 2014 10* 29 31 35 45 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 2
02 28 2014 03* 31 50 58 59 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 4
02 25 2014 12* 18 25 35 66 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
02 21 2014 23 29 32 45 46 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
02 18 2014 23 29 31 37 70 Mega Ball: 14 Megaplier: 5
02 14 2014 20 28 35 71 72 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 3
02 11 2014 43 64 67 71 73 Mega Ball: 04 Megaplier: 2
02 07 2014 11* 21 23 35 64 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 3
02 04 2014 25 44 49 60 73 Mega Ball: 09 Megaplier: 3
01 31 2014 03* 09 13 47 52 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 4
01 28 2014 07* 16 28 53 60 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
01 24 2014 22 45 46 47 65 Mega Ball: 10 Megaplier: 5
01 21 2014 08* 23 33 45 52 Mega Ball: 04 Megaplier: 4
01 17 2014 01* 10 26 31 51 Mega Ball: 11 Megaplier: 4
01 14 2014 04* 23 26 62 69 Mega Ball: 13 Megaplier: 3
01 10 2014 08* 28 36 37 57 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
01 07 2014 13 34 56 62 64 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 5
01 03 2014 22 24 25 40 70 Mega Ball: 05 Megaplier: 5
12 31 2013 08* 12 34 52 58 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
12 27 2013 04* 15 35 48 49 Mega Ball: 11 Megaplier: 5
12 24 2013 23 34 53 58 73 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
12 20 2013 03* 04 31 49 57 Mega Ball: 06 Megaplier: 2
12 17 2013 08* 14 17 20 39 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 4
12 13 2013 19 24 26 27 70 Mega Ball: 12 Megaplier: 2
12 10 2013 05* 12 22 41 65 Mega Ball: 13 Megaplier: 2
12 06 2013 11* 29 44 63 64 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 3
12 03 2013 07* 12 41 44 59 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 3
11 29 2013 09* 41 43 47 57 Mega Ball: 05 Megaplier: 4
11 26 2013 27 44 59 74 75 Mega Ball: 03 Megaplier: 5
11 22 2013 17 23 35 36 44 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 3
11 19 2013 14* 15 29 49 63 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 3
11 15 2013 25 44 49 54 63 Mega Ball: 08 Megaplier: 4
11 12 2013 20 30 32 42 71 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 5
11 08 2013 41 42 51 57 65 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 2
11 05 2013 02* 11 42 64 74 Mega Ball: 02 Megaplier: 5
11 01 2013 32 35 49 62 67 Mega Ball: 01 Megaplier: 5
10 29 2013 20 33 50 53 54 Mega Ball: 07 Megaplier: 3
10 25 2013 06* 16 45 54 60 Mega Ball: 15 Megaplier: 2
10 22 2013 02* 03 19 52 71 Mega Ball: 14 Megaplier: 5

11 last night.

13 or greater is more likely now and will continue to be more and more each time it's not selected.

just a guess.

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GoogilyMoogily

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Mar 19, 2014, 7:51 pm

"Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense." I agree. The odds of 1-2-3-4-5 being drawn are the exact same odds as any other combination. My chart ignores the order they are drawn, just the numerical order they are reported.
SkyLine69

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Mar 20, 2014, 8:09 am

I'm surprised Jo one eon the prize. Ball 75 would be too high. Lol. Sorry guys had to say it

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