Welcome Guest
You last visited September 29, 2020, 2:15 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 6 years ago by sandnan.

 Page 1 of 2

United States
Member #35334
March 16, 2006
171 Posts
Offline

Likewise, what number is too low to play for a last ball?  And the 2/3/4 balls in between?  I am assuming numbers are in numerical order, as reported after the draw, not in the order they are drawn.  I'm trying to determine the maximum range of allowable balls in the system I am working on.

Here are the percentages of how often a ball will land in each position, for the megamillions:

 MM 1 2 3 4 5 1 6.667 no no no no 2 6.306 0.360 no no no 3 5.961 0.691 0.015 no no 4 5.630 0.993 0.043 0.000 no 5 5.312 1.269 0.084 0.002 0.000 6 5.009 1.518 0.136 0.004 0.000 7 4.719 1.742 0.198 0.008 0.000 8 4.441 1.943 0.269 0.014 0.000 9 4.176 2.121 0.348 0.021 0.000 10 3.923 2.278 0.434 0.032 0.001 11 3.681 2.414 0.526 0.044 0.001 12 3.451 2.531 0.622 0.060 0.002 13 3.232 2.630 0.723 0.079 0.003 14 3.024 2.711 0.827 0.101 0.004 15 2.825 2.776 0.933 0.127 0.006 16 2.637 2.825 1.041 0.156 0.008 17 2.458 2.860 1.149 0.188 0.011 18 2.289 2.882 1.258 0.225 0.014 19 2.128 2.891 1.365 0.265 0.018 20 1.976 2.888 1.471 0.309 0.022 21 1.832 2.874 1.575 0.357 0.028 22 1.697 2.850 1.677 0.408 0.035 23 1.569 2.817 1.775 0.464 0.042 24 1.448 2.775 1.869 0.523 0.051 25 1.334 2.725 1.959 0.586 0.062 26 1.228 2.669 2.044 0.653 0.073 27 1.127 2.606 2.124 0.723 0.087 28 1.033 2.537 2.198 0.797 0.102 29 0.945 2.463 2.267 0.873 0.119 30 0.863 2.384 2.329 0.953 0.138 31 0.787 2.302 2.384 1.035 0.159 32 0.715 2.217 2.433 1.120 0.182 33 0.649 2.128 2.474 1.207 0.208 34 0.587 2.038 2.509 1.296 0.237 35 0.530 1.946 2.535 1.387 0.269 36 0.477 1.853 2.555 1.479 0.303 37 0.428 1.760 2.566 1.572 0.341 38 0.383 1.666 2.570 1.666 0.383 39 0.341 1.572 2.566 1.760 0.428 40 0.303 1.479 2.555 1.853 0.477 41 0.269 1.387 2.535 1.946 0.530 42 0.237 1.296 2.509 2.038 0.587 43 0.208 1.207 2.474 2.128 0.649 44 0.182 1.120 2.433 2.217 0.715 45 0.159 1.035 2.384 2.302 0.787 46 0.138 0.953 2.329 2.384 0.863 47 0.119 0.873 2.267 2.463 0.945 48 0.102 0.797 2.198 2.537 1.033 49 0.087 0.723 2.124 2.606 1.127 50 0.073 0.653 2.044 2.669 1.228 51 0.062 0.586 1.959 2.725 1.334 52 0.051 0.523 1.869 2.775 1.448 53 0.042 0.464 1.775 2.817 1.569 54 0.035 0.408 1.677 2.850 1.697 55 0.028 0.357 1.575 2.874 1.832 56 0.022 0.309 1.471 2.888 1.976 57 0.018 0.265 1.365 2.891 2.128 58 0.014 0.225 1.258 2.882 2.289 59 0.011 0.188 1.149 2.860 2.458 60 0.008 0.156 1.041 2.825 2.637 61 0.006 0.127 0.933 2.776 2.825 62 0.004 0.101 0.827 2.711 3.024 63 0.003 0.079 0.723 2.630 3.232 64 0.002 0.060 0.622 2.531 3.451 65 0.001 0.044 0.526 2.414 3.681 66 0.001 0.032 0.434 2.278 3.923 67 0.000 0.021 0.348 2.121 4.176 68 0.000 0.014 0.269 1.943 4.441 69 0.000 0.008 0.198 1.742 4.719 70 0.000 0.004 0.136 1.518 5.009 71 0.000 0.002 0.084 1.269 5.312 72 no 0.000 0.043 0.993 5.630 73 no no 0.015 0.691 5.961 74 no no no 0.360 6.306 75 no no no no 6.667
 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 6:23 pmThis is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.Just a guess. *first column numbers 01 to 12MM    DD    YYYY    1      2     3     4     5   03    14    2014    07*    20    40    54    69    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    303    11    2014    09*    14    56    57    69    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    403    07    2014    11*    13    51    57    69    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    403    04    2014    10*    29    31    35    45    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    202    28    2014    03*    31    50    58    59    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    402    25    2014    12*    18    25    35    66    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    502    21    2014    23     29    32    45    46    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    502    18    2014    23     29    31    37    70    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    502    14    2014    20     28    35    71    72    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    302    11    2014    43     64    67    71    73    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    202    07    2014    11*    21    23    35    64    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    302    04    2014    25     44    49    60    73    Mega Ball:    09    Megaplier:    301    31    2014    03*    09    13    47    52    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    401    28    2014    07*    16    28    53    60    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    301    24    2014    22     45    46    47    65    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    501    21    2014    08*    23    33    45    52    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    401    17    2014    01*    10    26    31    51    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    401    14    2014    04*    23    26    62    69    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    301    10    2014    08*    28    36    37    57    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    301    07    2014    13     34    56    62    64    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    501    03    2014    22     24    25    40    70    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    512    31    2013    08*    12    34    52    58    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    312    27    2013    04*    15    35    48    49    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    512    24    2013    23     34    53    58    73    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    312    20    2013    03*    04    31    49    57    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    212    17    2013    08*    14    17    20    39    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    412    13    2013    19     24    26    27    70    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    212    10    2013    05*    12    22    41    65    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    212    06    2013    11*    29    44    63    64    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    312    03    2013    07*    12    41    44    59    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    311    29    2013    09*    41    43    47    57    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    411    26    2013    27     44    59    74    75    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    511    22    2013    17     23    35    36    44    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    311    19    2013    14*    15    29    49    63    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    311    15    2013    25     44    49    54    63    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    411    12    2013    20     30    32    42    71    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    511    08    2013    41     42    51    57    65    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    211    05    2013    02*    11    42    64    74    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    511    01    2013    32     35    49    62    67    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    510    29    2013    20     33    50    53    54    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    310    25    2013    06*    16    45    54    60    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    210    22    2013    02*    03    19    52    71    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    5.
 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 6:36 pmPower Ball's first column half split is about (01 to 10) and (11 to 55).We say about, because the split point is 10, exactly.This gives the range 01 to 10 a slight advantage..
 GoogilyMoogilyThread StarterUnited StatesMember #35334March 16, 2006171 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 6:36 pmThe sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220%  (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)Is 50% the cut off?  Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.
 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 6:43 pmQuote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on March 18, 2014The sum of the MM numbers 1 thru 9 in the first column = 48.220%  (6.667+6.306+5.961+5.630+5.312+5.009+4.719+4.441+4.176)Is 50% the cut off?  Anything outside of this 50% range, I should not consider?Edits for accuracy and removing unnecessary copy/pasta of table.No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly..

United States
Member #35334
March 16, 2006
171 Posts
Offline

@jade, here is my powerball percent chart.  The other table format fell apart on copy/pasta, so this may also look equally bad.  I figure 1 thru 7 = 48.087% of the draws for the first number.

 PB 1 2 3 4 5 1 8.475 no no no no 2 7.890 0.584 no no no 3 7.336 1.107 0.031 no no 4 6.812 1.572 0.089 0.001 no 5 6.317 1.982 0.172 0.004 0.000 6 5.849 2.340 0.275 0.011 0.000 7 5.408 2.649 0.397 0.021 0.000 8 4.992 2.912 0.535 0.036 0.001 9 4.600 3.132 0.685 0.056 0.001 10 4.232 3.312 0.846 0.082 0.003 11 3.887 3.455 1.014 0.115 0.004 12 3.563 3.563 1.188 0.155 0.007 13 3.260 3.639 1.364 0.202 0.010 14 2.976 3.685 1.542 0.257 0.014 15 2.712 3.704 1.720 0.320 0.020 16 2.465 3.698 1.894 0.391 0.027 17 2.236 3.669 2.064 0.470 0.036 18 2.023 3.620 2.228 0.557 0.048 19 1.825 3.552 2.384 0.652 0.061 20 1.643 3.468 2.531 0.755 0.077 21 1.474 3.370 2.668 0.865 0.097 22 1.319 3.259 2.794 0.983 0.120 23 1.177 3.138 2.907 1.107 0.146 24 1.046 3.007 3.007 1.238 0.177 25 0.926 2.869 3.093 1.375 0.212 26 0.817 2.725 3.164 1.516 0.253 27 0.718 2.576 3.220 1.662 0.299 28 0.628 2.424 3.260 1.811 0.351 29 0.547 2.271 3.284 1.963 0.409 30 0.474 2.117 3.293 2.117 0.474 31 0.409 1.963 3.284 2.271 0.547 32 0.351 1.811 3.260 2.424 0.628 33 0.299 1.662 3.220 2.576 0.718 34 0.253 1.516 3.164 2.725 0.817 35 0.212 1.375 3.093 2.869 0.926 36 0.177 1.238 3.007 3.007 1.046 37 0.146 1.107 2.907 3.138 1.177 38 0.120 0.983 2.794 3.259 1.319 39 0.097 0.865 2.668 3.370 1.474 40 0.077 0.755 2.531 3.468 1.643 41 0.061 0.652 2.384 3.552 1.825 42 0.048 0.557 2.228 3.620 2.023 43 0.036 0.470 2.064 3.669 2.236 44 0.027 0.391 1.894 3.698 2.465 45 0.020 0.320 1.720 3.704 2.712 46 0.014 0.257 1.542 3.685 2.976 47 0.010 0.202 1.364 3.639 3.260 48 0.007 0.155 1.188 3.563 3.563 49 0.004 0.115 1.014 3.455 3.887 50 0.003 0.082 0.846 3.312 4.232 51 0.001 0.056 0.685 3.132 4.600 52 0.001 0.036 0.535 2.912 4.992 53 0.000 0.021 0.397 2.649 5.408 54 0.000 0.011 0.275 2.340 5.849 55 0.000 0.004 0.172 1.982 6.317 56 no 0.001 0.089 1.572 6.812 57 no no 0.031 1.107 7.336 58 no no no 0.584 7.890 59 no no no no 8.475
 GoogilyMoogilyThread StarterUnited StatesMember #35334March 16, 2006171 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 6:49 pmQuote: Originally posted by JADELottery on March 18, 2014No, it's like a coin flip, Heads (01 to 12) or Tails (13 to 71).The Mega Millions first column split point is actually 76/6 or 12.666... so your percentage sums are not going add up to 50% exactly.Explain like I'm 5.  My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1.  Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5.  Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75.  The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN(\$A2-1,B\$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE(\$A\$2:\$A\$76,1)-\$A2,LARGE(\$B\$1:\$F\$1,1)-B\$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"Is that formula correct? Edit:  Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers.  If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.
 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 7:06 pmQuote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on March 18, 2014Explain like I'm 5.  My spreadsheet has the game title "MM" in cell A1.  Cells B1 thru F1 are 1 thru 5.  Cells A2 - A76 are 1 thru 75.  The formula in Cell B2 = "=(COMBIN(\$A2-1,B\$1-1)*COMBIN(LARGE(\$A\$2:\$A\$76,1)-\$A2,LARGE(\$B\$1:\$F\$1,1)-B\$1))/COMBIN(75,5)*100"Is that formula correct? Edit:  Please note the formula is set up so i can copy/paste it over and over and it doesn't matter the range of numbers.  If the lottery system was a 1-80, for example, the "large()" portion of the formula would pick up on 80 as being the largest and I have less editing to do later on.looks correct for that approach. However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way. It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75..
 GoogilyMoogilyThread StarterUnited StatesMember #35334March 16, 2006171 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 7:11 pmQuote: Originally posted by JADELottery on March 18, 2014looks correct for that approach. However, the split point we are giving you is derived a different way. It's the average of all the numbers in the first column for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"?  Because that would equal 1.408.  That falls between 24 and 25.
 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 7:17 pmQuote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on March 18, 2014Are you saying "=average(b2:b76)"?  Because that would equal 1.408.  That falls between 24 and 25.no."...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75.".
 GoogilyMoogilyThread StarterUnited StatesMember #35334March 16, 2006171 PostsOffline March 18, 2014, 7:20 pmQuote: Originally posted by JADELottery on March 18, 2014no."...for every possible combination of 5 out of 75."I believe that's what my chart illustrates:)   (hopefully)   If you ask me, "How many times does the number 23 fall as the second digit in MM?", I would reply, "It falls 2.817% of the time."  Each of my chart's columns add up to 100%.
Economy class
Belgium
Member #123696
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline

"What number is too high to play for a first ball? (mm/pb)"

 MM 1 2 3 4 5 1 6.667 no no no no 2 6.306 0.360 no no no 3 5.961 0.691 0.015 no no 4 5.63 0.993 0.043 0.000 no 5 5.312 1.269 0.084 0.002 0.000

...

Number 4 is too low as it will never be drawn as fifth ball. I posted that one longer ago? Any other number can be drawn in a winning combination as fifth ball. Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense. Look for "developer" in the members list, she has a website.

 JADELotteryZimbabweMember #21December 7, 20014530 PostsOffline March 19, 2014, 10:26 amQuote: Originally posted by JADELottery on March 18, 2014This is an indirect answer to your question for the Mega millions.On average, Half of numbers selected in the first column are 01 to 12.The other Half are 13 to 71, on Average.If we look at the total draws to date (2014-03-18), we can see numbers in the first column were selected 6 times in the range of 01 to 12.Our best guess is the next selection in the first column is going to be a number 13 or greater.Just a guess. *first column numbers 01 to 12MM    DD    YYYY    1      2     3     4     5   03    14    2014    07*    20    40    54    69    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    303    11    2014    09*    14    56    57    69    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    403    07    2014    11*    13    51    57    69    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    403    04    2014    10*    29    31    35    45    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    202    28    2014    03*    31    50    58    59    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    402    25    2014    12*    18    25    35    66    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    502    21    2014    23     29    32    45    46    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    502    18    2014    23     29    31    37    70    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    502    14    2014    20     28    35    71    72    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    302    11    2014    43     64    67    71    73    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    202    07    2014    11*    21    23    35    64    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    302    04    2014    25     44    49    60    73    Mega Ball:    09    Megaplier:    301    31    2014    03*    09    13    47    52    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    401    28    2014    07*    16    28    53    60    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    301    24    2014    22     45    46    47    65    Mega Ball:    10    Megaplier:    501    21    2014    08*    23    33    45    52    Mega Ball:    04    Megaplier:    401    17    2014    01*    10    26    31    51    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    401    14    2014    04*    23    26    62    69    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    301    10    2014    08*    28    36    37    57    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    301    07    2014    13     34    56    62    64    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    501    03    2014    22     24    25    40    70    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    512    31    2013    08*    12    34    52    58    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    312    27    2013    04*    15    35    48    49    Mega Ball:    11    Megaplier:    512    24    2013    23     34    53    58    73    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    312    20    2013    03*    04    31    49    57    Mega Ball:    06    Megaplier:    212    17    2013    08*    14    17    20    39    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    412    13    2013    19     24    26    27    70    Mega Ball:    12    Megaplier:    212    10    2013    05*    12    22    41    65    Mega Ball:    13    Megaplier:    212    06    2013    11*    29    44    63    64    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    312    03    2013    07*    12    41    44    59    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    311    29    2013    09*    41    43    47    57    Mega Ball:    05    Megaplier:    411    26    2013    27     44    59    74    75    Mega Ball:    03    Megaplier:    511    22    2013    17     23    35    36    44    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    311    19    2013    14*    15    29    49    63    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    311    15    2013    25     44    49    54    63    Mega Ball:    08    Megaplier:    411    12    2013    20     30    32    42    71    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    511    08    2013    41     42    51    57    65    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    211    05    2013    02*    11    42    64    74    Mega Ball:    02    Megaplier:    511    01    2013    32     35    49    62    67    Mega Ball:    01    Megaplier:    510    29    2013    20     33    50    53    54    Mega Ball:    07    Megaplier:    310    25    2013    06*    16    45    54    60    Mega Ball:    15    Megaplier:    210    22    2013    02*    03    19    52    71    Mega Ball:    14    Megaplier:    511 last night.13 or greater is more likely now and will continue to be more and more each time it's not selected.just a guess..
 GoogilyMoogilyThread StarterUnited StatesMember #35334March 16, 2006171 PostsOffline March 19, 2014, 7:51 pm"Statements like 1 to 5 cannot win are nonsense."  I agree.  The odds of 1-2-3-4-5 being drawn are the exact same odds as any other combination.  My chart ignores the order they are drawn, just the numerical order they are reported.
 SkyLine69KryptonUnited StatesMember #140098March 11, 2013911 PostsOffline March 20, 2014, 8:09 amI'm surprised Jo one eon the prize. Ball 75 would be too high. Lol. Sorry guys had to say it

 Page 1 of 2