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BaktoBak doubles // how many per year?

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Tialuvslotto.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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Posted: April 4, 2014, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

No red flags necessary.

Data covers 365 days from July 1, 2012 thru June 30, 2013.  Midday and Evening draws combined.  202 doubles. 730 draws. 27.6%

  Isn't that a beautiful stat Tialuvslotto? 

  27% doubles after 2 years worth of stats and we still end up with the Expected Math averages...........27%.  You have to love it !

  Almost perfect.  It's almost always that way for all of the games here.

  That's what keeps us hanging around right? It's just too bad we can't ever put all of our weight on them all of the time. That's the advantage of "Cut off Rules"  ...right?

 We have to set our strategy playing limits and stick to them otherwise we're toasted !   LOL

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
    United States
    Member #150797
    December 31, 2013
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    Posted: April 5, 2014, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

    Just like clockwork!

    There is considerable variation over a shorter time frame, though -- I call it the 'doubles cycle'.  I track doubles in the last 15 games and that statistic ranges, in my data, from 0% to 66.6%, generally from 13.3% (2 doubles in 15 games) to 46.6% (7 doubles in 15 games).  When I see the low statistic I know a run of doubles is coming and when the percentage gets up in the high 40's or low 50's I know to expect fewer doubles in the next week.

    My cut-off for doubles following another double is 3 games, and I would start to play doubles after they have been missing for 12 games.

      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
      Park City, UT
      United States
      Member #69864
      January 18, 2009
      993 Posts
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      Posted: April 5, 2014, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

      Just like clockwork!

      There is considerable variation over a shorter time frame, though -- I call it the 'doubles cycle'.  I track doubles in the last 15 games and that statistic ranges, in my data, from 0% to 66.6%, generally from 13.3% (2 doubles in 15 games) to 46.6% (7 doubles in 15 games).  When I see the low statistic I know a run of doubles is coming and when the percentage gets up in the high 40's or low 50's I know to expect fewer doubles in the next week.

      My cut-off for doubles following another double is 3 games, and I would start to play doubles after they have been missing for 12 games.

       My cut-off for doubles following another double is 3 games,

      I would say this graph of the last 365 draws for each state verifies your strategy as being very sound.

      Doubles Skip Distribution Chart

      Jimmy

        Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
        Texas
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        Posted: April 5, 2014, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

         My cut-off for doubles following another double is 3 games,

        I would say this graph of the last 365 draws for each state verifies your strategy as being very sound.

        Doubles Skip Distribution Chart

        Jimmy

        Nice chart Jim, Thanks!  Its always good to have confirmation.

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
          United States
          Member #828
          November 2, 2002
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          Posted: April 5, 2014, 3:38 pm - IP Logged

          Ontario 1 Year Period

          202 doubles

          57 (28%) were B2B

          35 (24% of possible) skipped 1 game from previous

          25 (23% of possible) skipped 2 games from previous

          58% of doubles will be followed by another double within 3 games.

          Its one of the better bets in the game. Big Smile

          Say, let me run this question by you and see what you think.

                If you only had one chance per year to trap a double .........which PLAY DAY would you go with? What one day would you think best odds?

           

                      .....or better yet .....if it were the last bet ...and the biggest bet of your playing career to catch a double which one day would be the best ?

           

                                             Most folks looking at the stats would pick the 3rd day to take their ONE last big bet SHOT right? 

           

                                               At 58% it seems a little too close to a 50/50 chance for me. For my only last bet right? Just too close.

           

                                                       Let me know what ya think the best ONE day is ....then I might surprise you with my reasons.

                                                         I'll do my best to explain my thinking and experiences with it then see what you think.     

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
            Texas
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            Member #150797
            December 31, 2013
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            Posted: April 5, 2014, 3:49 pm - IP Logged

            Well, in my game only 6 streaks of no doubles went 12 games or more, and 4 of those hit at 12 games so 4/6 = 67%.  But, not many chances to play with this choice.

            Bring on your choice WIN D! Thumbs Up