|Posted: April 29, 2014, 8:37 pm - IP Logged|
Yeah I call crap on that theory. I had bought 3 $10 tickets back in Feb. won a $100 on one nothing on the other 2. So I took the hundo and bought 10 $10 scratchers same game, same store...you know how much I won? Not...one....thin.....dime. Yeah there is no rhyme nor reason to buy tickets, it's just random
Does your state have minimums for the pack prizes? $100 on a $10 game could fulfill a chunk of that and would explain why you didn't win on any other tickets from the same game. If I win a prize higher than any that would fulfill the guarantee then I usually won't play the pack anymore. Like I mentioned earlier, there are only so many winners per pack. It's very possible to hit the biggest prizes in the first few tickets and the rest of the pack be duds.
As far as Lustig's idea, basically it suffers from gambler's ruin. You are more likely to lose than win, so using wins to get more wins doesn't really work.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1