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How Sad Would You Be?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 2 years ago by ThatScaryChick.

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ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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Posted: June 26, 2014, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

I've had that happen before I had a set of numbers that I had played for a long time in Wild Card and I was too tired to go to the store and play my numbers and it cost me $5,000. I wouldn't have hit the Wild Card number only the first 5 but  it was a horribly feeling. I don't know what I would have felt like if I had played a set of regular numbers in Powerball or Mega Millions and those numbers came up. Probably devastated to be honest.

Now though, I tend not to stick with a set of numbers for very long so I don't really memorize them or anything.

"No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

    HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
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    Posted: June 26, 2014, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

    I've had that happen before I had a set of numbers that I had played for a long time in Wild Card and I was too tired to go to the store and play my numbers and it cost me $5,000. I wouldn't have hit the Wild Card number only the first 5 but  it was a horribly feeling. I don't know what I would have felt like if I had played a set of regular numbers in Powerball or Mega Millions and those numbers came up. Probably devastated to be honest.

    Now though, I tend not to stick with a set of numbers for very long so I don't really memorize them or anything.

    Oh yeah that would make me sick, even "just" $5K.  Did you realize right away you hadn't played, or did you get all happy first thinking you had some extra cash?  LOL

    BTW I see Wild Card was won last night, back to $200K.  It doesn't seem to be getting very high lately, so I try to have a ticket for every draw.

      HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
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      Posted: June 26, 2014, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

      The fear of this occurring is what drives people to play every draw....afraid of "missing out."

      I've actually had this happen to me....didn't play numbers and then they came up. Yeah, I was mad at myself for a day or so but I got over it. My combination is and was just as likely to show up as any other. So to get upset because the combination I played before just so happened to show up in a draw I didn't play is counterproductive. It would be like playing a combination and then finding out that it came out in a draw before you ever even started playing the lottery. There's no limitation on whether a combination will show up or not. It is unlikely to repeat in larger games, but then again it is unlikely to ever show up anyway. The same can be said about literally every combination in the matrix. What if instead of playing your numbers you played another set and those won? I could go on but getting worked up about stuff like just takes the fun out of playing. All you can do is play the game and hope you get lucky, regardless of how you play.

      I've been thinking about this post since this morning, and I just can't see how I'd only be mad for a day.  My thinking would be that I've been playing for 20 years, I missed my chance and now it'll be another 20 before it comes around again.  That's definitely counterproductive thinking, and I'd probably have better mental health thinking about it the way you do.

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
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        Posted: June 26, 2014, 4:58 pm - IP Logged

        I've been thinking about this post since this morning, and I just can't see how I'd only be mad for a day.  My thinking would be that I've been playing for 20 years, I missed my chance and now it'll be another 20 before it comes around again.  That's definitely counterproductive thinking, and I'd probably have better mental health thinking about it the way you do.

        Well, instead of thinking about it in terms of years, try to think about it in terms of drawings.

        104 drawings a year (est) * 20 = 2,080 drawings

        Sounds like a lot right? But in the case of Powerball, let's try the math assuming one ticket per drawing. Obviously the matrix has changed over 20 years but cost and odds aside we can make a reasonable generalization (i.e. all things held constant).

        (175,223,509/175,223,510)^2080 = 0.9999881441

        That gives us the probability that you lose 2,080 drawings without a win.

        So we simply subtract that from 1 to get the probability of winning at least once.

        1 - 0.9999881441 = 0.00001186 (0.00118559%)

        More than odds of 1 in 84,000 that your set will show up any time in 20 years worth of drawings. So it's not even likely or close to likely.

        Obviously, nobody needs reminders about what a stretch it is to win the lottery or come close to it. But the fact of the matter is that you will only win by pure luck, regardless of what numbers you choose or how you choose them. Every combination has the same chance of occurring. You can play one set for 20 years or a different set for 20 years and still have the same probability of winning. That's why I don't get hung up on "missing out." It's just a fallacy of human nature to feel this way, and probably the reason lotteries are so successful. You might feel like you've lost your chance, but like I mentioned earlier: there's no law that says you have to win with a specific set or cannot win with a specific set (or any for that matter). You wouldn't feel like you missed out if you hadn't played your numbers but instead played a substitute set that won, right? You would feel like you would've missed out if you had played your original numbers. A little paradoxical if you think about it. It's just unlikely that any specific set shows up as a winning combination.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
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          Posted: June 26, 2014, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

          Okay, I'll spend the night thinking about ^^that^^ and see if I can change my thinking a bit.

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            Posted: June 27, 2014, 10:47 am - IP Logged

            I remember hitting 5 out of 6 numbers on lotto. One from 9 million. I wasn't happy. I got $1100 and had to pay taxes. I make more on pick 3.

              ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
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              Posted: June 27, 2014, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

              Oh yeah that would make me sick, even "just" $5K.  Did you realize right away you hadn't played, or did you get all happy first thinking you had some extra cash?  LOL

              BTW I see Wild Card was won last night, back to $200K.  It doesn't seem to be getting very high lately, so I try to have a ticket for every draw.

              I had:

              02-09-15-18-27 + Jack of Hearts
              02-09-18-21-27 + Jack of Hearts

              02 04 18 27 31 Jack of Spades

              When I first saw a couple of numbers I thought for a little second that it could have been me that had won. No such luck though. I won $4.00 so I made a profit of $3 whole dollars. lol

              "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."