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Best time NOT to play doubles is...

Topic closed. 39 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Trafficpro.

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PeerGynt's avatar - nw archer.jpg
Simi Valley, CA
United States
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July 4, 2014
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Posted: September 14, 2014, 10:36 pm - IP Logged

Ah, yes, true then, WinD.  As a general rule, it's much better, I agree.  I'm looking at the particular, when the general rule was the subject.

I'm going to play some singles today myself, not being entirely certain today's the day for a third double.

However... one should take into account the "state of the game" when making these decisions.

California has recently gone these achingly long periods between doubles - way out of the norm.  As well, California has gone longer than normal between back-to-back doubles.  Also, the CA D3 (imho) seems to be a game that loves swinging to extremes in its game.

All three create a situation where, it might be good to consider, a third double in a row appearing.

Smiley

The extremes are showing in CA.  Another double tonight, and I repeat my call: another double (at least one) coming within three plays. Smile

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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    Posted: September 14, 2014, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

    Sure......doubles hit 27% of the time or every 3 or 4 draws. It's good odds to bet that way too ......if that was the point of this post. Although the DC degree of certainty is not as attractive in that case. Don't forget you were using combined draws when the doubles stopped midday today with the box single ...430 however. Not as rare as the 4 doubles in a row opportunity here..... which was the original planed subject ...but still. 

     

     On the other hand......in this post's example ......the odds of them hitting 3 or 4 times in a row are shown to be RARE in the Extreme ....which was the subject here anyway. The NY single hitting as a box single and ending the doubles streak....146 was expected at least up to the 90% level.

     

     This was to demo a good odds opportunity using a 280 number filter with a VERY high confidence level...Very HIGH......and backed up showing specific facts.  Normally we don't get to see the reason behind such claims. Now, everyone can do it and know the reason why it works. Why it's good MOST of the time.

     The fact that means 90% is why it's at the top of "Dependable Systems Tools"

     If anyone can show anything ...tool wise... that has that high of a confidence level ......and prove it then please share it.

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      cusky39's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
      New Jersey
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      December 10, 2011
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      Posted: September 15, 2014, 12:11 am - IP Logged

      hey Win,

      your message box is full, what can you suggest to learn more about pic 3.  I always have like 50 choices, and cant cut it down.  How can we learn 

      really how to get better at this?

      Winning Feels So Good!!!!!!!Dance

        Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
        Texas
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        Posted: September 15, 2014, 6:52 am - IP Logged

        For Ontario (combined) for the past year there have been 13 episodes of doubles that hit more than twice in a row.

        10 of these streaks stopped at 3 in a row, 2 stopped at 4 and one streak went to 5 in a row, so the success of your strategy would have been 10/13 or 76%.  Sounds like a good rule of thumb to use when you are sitting at 3 doubles in a row, to bet against the streak going to 4 or more.

        Ontario has been having a blazing hot year for doubles (30%), as it appears that they have removed the trips from the game (hasn't been one for over a year), so I guess the doubles are doing "double duty", so to speak. Wink

        "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

        ~Robert A. Heinlein

          winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
          Pennsylvania
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          Posted: September 15, 2014, 9:47 am - IP Logged

          Credit below goes to Scott Piel developer of Lottoman:  Hopefully one day Scott develops an updated version

           

          A "double" requires that two of the digits be the same and that the third digit be different.
           
          There are only 10 possible double digits and only nine numbers that can be combined with each.

          Therefor, there are 90 possible groups of three digits with two identical numbers and one different number.

          However, any double can be written in three different ways: 112, 121 or 211.

          Thus, there are 270 possible doubles and the probability of a double is 270:1000 or 1:4.

          Mathematically, the probability of the result being a double is based on any one of the three digits being a number other than the double digit (9:10 + 9:10 + 9:10) and that the remaining two digits be the same (1:10).

          Thus the probability of a double is 27:100 or 1:4 as before.

          If the probability of a double appearing in one draw is 1:4, the probability of seeing doubles in two consecutive draws would be the probability of a double in this draw and the next draw, or, 1:4 * 1:4 = 1:16.

          Likewise, the probability of three consecutive doubles would be 1:4 * 1:4 * 1:4 = 1:64.

          With each consecutive appearance of a double, the probability of seeing yet another falls significantly.

          The odds of a double on each draw are identical (1:4) while the probability of each consecutive draw is 1/4 of the probability of the previous draw.

           

          Further reading from this Pick 3 document:

          https://app.box.com/s/3ya4ut16kf014i43926o

            winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
            Pennsylvania
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            Posted: September 15, 2014, 10:17 am - IP Logged

            I updated the Excel files this morning.  Added a new version2

            Note: For Excel version 2007, 2010, and 2013

            1.  Create a new folder and name it whatever you want. Example, Pick3Doubles

            2.  Download the following 3 Excel files and place them into your new folder:

            https://app.box.com/s/eumecqlf0xdmzjzvp29u

            https://app.box.com/s/ymkqpiypniyipsky4qef

            https://app.box.com/s/u8kt4hzbnip1v906nhez

            3.  You should have 3 Excel files

            P3StateDrawsBoxedSets.xlsm

            Pick3RouletteWinD.xlsm

            Pick3RouletteWinD_Version2.xlsm

            4.  Open the Excel file "P3StateDrawsBoxedSets.xlsm".  Once this file opens you should see a window open to update the date.  Just click the OK button to close.  No action is required with this Excel file.  This file contains all the draw histories of all US and Canadian Pick 3 draws for the last 5 years or less.  Always leave this Excel file open do not close it.

            5.  With the P3StateDrawsBoxedSets.xlsm file currently open go to the main menu and select File > Open and browse to the folder you created in Step 1 above and select either the Pick3RouletteWinD.xlsm or Pick3RouletteWinD_Version2.xlsm file.  In this example I will open the "Pick3RouletteWinD_Version2.xlsm file.

            6. At the bottom click the Tab labeled "DoublesTriplesNM".  In this Excel version 2 you will see all the "boxed" conversions starting in cell column H.  Starting on line 13 going across are the most current draws for each states Pick 3 game.  Morning/Midday draws in cell columns H through AN. Evening draws in cell columns I through CF. Combined draws in cell range CG through DJ.  Each cell will have a "D" for Double, "NM" for no-match or 6-way, or "T" for triple.

            7. In cell D3 you should see the number "3".  The 3 indicates ther are 3 states where a double "D" has occurred in the last 3 most recent draws.  These 3 woudl be Pennsylvania Evening Only draw, Georgia Combined draws, and Maryland Combined draws.

            8. In cell D4 you should see the number "24".  The "24" indicates a state draw with a 24 consecutive "no-match" or 6-way sets.  This state would be Michigan Midday drawing.

              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
              Dallas, Texas
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              May 2, 2004
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              Posted: September 15, 2014, 10:21 am - IP Logged

              Sounds like an extreme year for money making opportunities!

              Texas, since January 2007, 2412 draws, 672 doubles...

              22 three in a row (3.2 per 100 only counting  doubles)

              8 four and done (1 per 100 only counting doubles)

              2 five long (get a microscope per hundred only counting doubles)

              7+ years, 2412 draws, The "Three Strike Strategy" seems unquestioned. Reminds me of the time the audiologist asked, "Do you think your ears are going to improve?"

              And I replied, "No, I think they are what they are."

              "I think so too," was her best line. 

              TEXAS, you is what you is. 

               

               

              • there was one 4 in row that included a triple which was not counted and 2 threes that involved triples which weren't counted. This study is not for use by the Texas State Lottery Commission and may not reflect the views of the reader 

              G

              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                November 2, 2002
                10491 Posts
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                Posted: September 16, 2014, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

                Sounds like an extreme year for money making opportunities!

                Texas, since January 2007, 2412 draws, 672 doubles...

                22 three in a row (3.2 per 100 only counting  doubles)

                8 four and done (1 per 100 only counting doubles)

                2 five long (get a microscope per hundred only counting doubles)

                7+ years, 2412 draws, The "Three Strike Strategy" seems unquestioned. Reminds me of the time the audiologist asked, "Do you think your ears are going to improve?"

                And I replied, "No, I think they are what they are."

                "I think so too," was her best line. 

                TEXAS, you is what you is. 

                 

                 

                • there was one 4 in row that included a triple which was not counted and 2 threes that involved triples which weren't counted. This study is not for use by the Texas State Lottery Commission and may not reflect the views of the reader 

                G

                Yes .....a rare opportunity ......but a good one. Confidence wise......It really is about as good as it gets in this game.

                When you can have such a high level of confidence going into the next draw....you're way ahead of the game. 

                 

                          How many times ?? have we said .......if it just wasn't for all those stupid doubles ....we could play more ...and win a lot more. 

                 

                                                                This is just like that one big chance we look for .......and sometimes ONCE is enough! 

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

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                  bowling Green ky
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                  Posted: September 16, 2014, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Would someone please please help me? Kentucky got 3 doubles in a row.  What should I play tonight? Please

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                    Posted: September 16, 2014, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                    Would someone please please help me? Kentucky got 3 doubles in a row.  What should I play tonight? Please

                    Well, as far as this particular post goes......and not including any other filters or strategy.......don't play any doubles. LOL 

                    Any deeper than that and we have to go to Kentucky forum...and knock it out over there right? 

                     Thanks for the heads up.....these are rare deals and should be played. 

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    

                      Avatar
                      backwoods ga
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                      Posted: September 16, 2014, 6:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Would someone please please help me? Kentucky got 3 doubles in a row.  What should I play tonight? Please

                      Try 384

                       

                      38 due and 34 due. Good luck.

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                        Posted: September 16, 2014, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

                        Try 384

                         

                        38 due and 34 due. Good luck.

                        Lildarryl..... we shouldn't encourage these individual state number begging on Systems Forum ......interrupting in the middle of System threads.

                         I was polite here......and then went over to the correct forum in Kentucky's forum ...and spent a lot of time over there checking and posting for tonight.

                         Thats why I went over there to the right forum(kentucky) to help ......so as not to hijack here. As for the poster....they left anyway. Turned and burned... LOL

                         

                         

                        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                               Win d    

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                          backwoods ga
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                          Posted: September 16, 2014, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

                          Lildarryl..... we shouldn't encourage these individual state number begging on Systems Forum ......interrupting in the middle of System threads.

                           I was polite here......and then went over to the correct forum in Kentucky's forum ...and spent a lot of time over there checking and posting for tonight.

                           Thats why I went over there to the right forum(kentucky) to help ......so as not to hijack here. As for the poster....they left anyway. Turned and burned... LOL

                          Mybad.. I've gotten some pms from her on various  occasions.  and never had time to do any crunching.. then I see her pop question on this thread. I figured she really need some  help.  I decided to be nice.  Sorry. I won't do again on your thread.

                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                            Posted: September 16, 2014, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                            Mybad.. I've gotten some pms from her on various  occasions.  and never had time to do any crunching.. then I see her pop question on this thread. I figured she really need some  help.  I decided to be nice.  Sorry. I won't do again on your thread.

                            Sorry too..... now that I went over and spent a long time on Kentucky forum stuff for her too and posted a bunch of stats. Then after she disappeared I couldn't even find any post from her over there either.

                             She evidently doesn't spend time over there posting....then pops up almost anywhere on virtually any forum....and ask the same question...and disappears. Nada ! 

                             Normally I try to step by those "drive by posters" for just that reason. They never come back for one. Not good manners for the other. 

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    

                              sully16's avatar - sharan
                              Ringleader
                              Michigan
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                              Posted: September 17, 2014, 7:58 am - IP Logged

                               Check out how many times your STATE had 3 doubles in a row last year or for the last ..... 365 draws.

                               We would be lucky to get more than 8 or 9 times a year. So, around 90% of the time we would be good to go ..NOT playing another double for the 3rd. day. 

                               

                               So, how many times a year should we expect say...... 4 doubles in a row?  Out of the average 99 doubles per game per year we get....... MAYBE 1 or 2 !!

                              =====================================================================================================

                               

                                                           You only have to bet one time a year to make a profit. Wait ...and pick just the right opportunities and increase your chances. 

                               

                               

                               P.S.

                               New York midday just had their 3rd double in a row today(Saturday).  ODDS wise.... playing only Singles for Sunday would be a good bet.  Sun Smiley

                                 Getting 4 doubles in a row .....is more rare than hitting a Triple !  Odds against a 4th double on Sunday are about as good as we get ....in this bad odds game. 

                              Thanks for the info. Cheers

                              Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                              For a lead role in a cage?

                               

                                                                          From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"