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Bias and ordering

Topic closed. 51 replies. Last post 2 years ago by manual.

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Florida
United States
Member #135615
November 27, 2012
405 Posts
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Posted: October 1, 2014, 9:35 pm - IP Logged

So, first, the bias... For those that don't know me, I pay a data based game (I'm a programmer by trade). My latest venture is coding every system I came up with to find the one that hits the most, year over year (tested 4 years back). Two of them performed quite well, one slightly better than the other. To win with that system, it would've taken $10 a play (ten numbers) and played for 30 days. That would generate a win 95% of the time or more. Doing the math, it's not profitable and wins come rather slow. Then there's still the ordering issue, but more on that in a bit. So what I did is coded a script that pulls all of the patterns for the last 30 days. Then I do various stats that give me a % of the best numbers to play, based on what's happened in the past four years. I've been playing for a little under a week and I won $290 on Monday (hadn't won yet so I was playing boxed but luckily, I played online too so that was another $225). Set #1 (ten numbers) in my system's list just came in and not many hits come the day after the pattern so I didn't play that. Midday today, 5-1-7 hit, I had 5-0-7 but that was a legitimate loss, close but an honest loss. 4-4-7 hit tonight but I let my bias creep in and I played set #3 in my list tonight. #2 is what would have it, as a straight. So how many of you have strict rules about what you play? Do you find sticking to a set to be more profitable or is there something to changing? Is anyone religious about changing numbers?

 

Next, ordering. My system is based on box hits. It gives me a pair and I play 0-9 for the last number, that gives me ten numbers to play. So I wrote a little code that tells me how often each order has hit in the past, for whatever pair the system came up with. Most of the time, there's one particular order that has a higher chance of hitting. Here's an example... Right now, Pair 6/9 is #1 in my list. The order that has the highest chance (20.80%) of hitting would look like this: 906,916,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,996

I've come up with quite a few stats that give me a good idea what and when I should play. I'd like to come up with some more ways to help me order the pairs but I'm drawing a blank. Any ideas from the Lottery Post collective?

    lakerben's avatar - spherewall
    New Mexico
    United States
    Member #86099
    January 29, 2010
    11119 Posts
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    Posted: October 1, 2014, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

    Thanks for keeping your site working.   Its nice having the sytems results on one page.

    Thumbs Up

    How about them cowboys!

     

     

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      Florida
      United States
      Member #135615
      November 27, 2012
      405 Posts
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      Posted: October 2, 2014, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

      np, keeping it up isn't a big deal. There will be a problem here and there but nothing horrible. I plan to do more with it. Just need to find the time. Mostly I'm happy having something that I can use to generate my own numbers and play... If I'm able to make money with it, I'll code it for my site so others can play/win. So far, I've had two wins and I've been playing for a little under a week. One I missed because I moved on to new numbers, still learning how to play this system. But for now, I'm playing on money won. One more hit and that's a pattern. Can't wait to see how long it'll take to get the next hit.

        lakerben's avatar - spherewall
        New Mexico
        United States
        Member #86099
        January 29, 2010
        11119 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 2, 2014, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

        np, keeping it up isn't a big deal. There will be a problem here and there but nothing horrible. I plan to do more with it. Just need to find the time. Mostly I'm happy having something that I can use to generate my own numbers and play... If I'm able to make money with it, I'll code it for my site so others can play/win. So far, I've had two wins and I've been playing for a little under a week. One I missed because I moved on to new numbers, still learning how to play this system. But for now, I'm playing on money won. One more hit and that's a pattern. Can't wait to see how long it'll take to get the next hit.

        Congrats that good news.   

        Thumbs Up

        How about them cowboys!

         

         

        US Flag

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
          United States
          Member #828
          November 2, 2002
          10491 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: October 2, 2014, 11:38 pm - IP Logged

          So, first, the bias... For those that don't know me, I pay a data based game (I'm a programmer by trade). My latest venture is coding every system I came up with to find the one that hits the most, year over year (tested 4 years back). Two of them performed quite well, one slightly better than the other. To win with that system, it would've taken $10 a play (ten numbers) and played for 30 days. That would generate a win 95% of the time or more. Doing the math, it's not profitable and wins come rather slow. Then there's still the ordering issue, but more on that in a bit. So what I did is coded a script that pulls all of the patterns for the last 30 days. Then I do various stats that give me a % of the best numbers to play, based on what's happened in the past four years. I've been playing for a little under a week and I won $290 on Monday (hadn't won yet so I was playing boxed but luckily, I played online too so that was another $225). Set #1 (ten numbers) in my system's list just came in and not many hits come the day after the pattern so I didn't play that. Midday today, 5-1-7 hit, I had 5-0-7 but that was a legitimate loss, close but an honest loss. 4-4-7 hit tonight but I let my bias creep in and I played set #3 in my list tonight. #2 is what would have it, as a straight. So how many of you have strict rules about what you play? Do you find sticking to a set to be more profitable or is there something to changing? Is anyone religious about changing numbers?

           

          Next, ordering. My system is based on box hits. It gives me a pair and I play 0-9 for the last number, that gives me ten numbers to play. So I wrote a little code that tells me how often each order has hit in the past, for whatever pair the system came up with. Most of the time, there's one particular order that has a higher chance of hitting. Here's an example... Right now, Pair 6/9 is #1 in my list. The order that has the highest chance (20.80%) of hitting would look like this: 906,916,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,996

          I've come up with quite a few stats that give me a good idea what and when I should play. I'd like to come up with some more ways to help me order the pairs but I'm drawing a blank. Any ideas from the Lottery Post collective?

           "That would generate a win 95% of the time or more. Doing the math, it's not profitable and wins come rather slow. Then there's still the ordering issue, but more on that in a bit. So what I did is coded a script that pulls all of the patterns for the last 30 days. Then I do various stats that give me a % of the best numbers to play, based on what's happened in the past four years."

           Very nice manual. Look forward to the results of all your stats ....and that percent % looks pretty strong for the goal. At last we can follow along with you and compare it with actual real repeatable results. It's great we can actually see the process as you go along..... and to be able to do the math along side.....and judge the progress with our own eyes.

           Using the methodical steps you outlined to evaluate results sounds dependable. Slow is just fine.

           Sounds encouraging and thanks for sharing your work when it's finished. 

           

                                   Clear,crisp,specific...... great.     The order that has the highest chance (20.80%) of hitting would look like this: 906,916,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,996         

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            Avatar
            Florida
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            November 27, 2012
            405 Posts
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            Posted: October 3, 2014, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

            Again, that percentage is the overall for any given set [of ten numbers] over a 30 day period. Odds are very good that you'll lose money. The key is if the past data (four years) helps to show when and how a given set should be played. Then it would be profitable. So far, it's looking good. The question is if its repeatable or not. Only way to know is to keep playing.

              WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
              Stone Mountain*Georgia
              United States
              Member #828
              November 2, 2002
              10491 Posts
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              Posted: October 3, 2014, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

              Again, that percentage is the overall for any given set [of ten numbers] over a 30 day period. Odds are very good that you'll lose money. The key is if the past data (four years) helps to show when and how a given set should be played. Then it would be profitable. So far, it's looking good. The question is if its repeatable or not. Only way to know is to keep playing.

              That's good manual....... it's a plan and at least we can get our teeth into something and understand the how and why of it. Thanks 

               

               

              The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                            Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                            Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                     Win d    

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                Florida
                United States
                Member #135615
                November 27, 2012
                405 Posts
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                Posted: October 3, 2014, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

                Well, hit # three for this week just came in 9-0-7, straight. I played online ($900) and in the store ($500). Not a bad days work. I'll take some screen shots/pictures later tonight so you guys can see the evidence.

                  Avatar
                  Florida
                  United States
                  Member #135615
                  November 27, 2012
                  405 Posts
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                  Posted: October 3, 2014, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                  Ok, here's my proof:

                   

                  Monday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/140929.jpg

                  Just polished off a working copy of my system. I had a couple of 20s left in my wallet from my scratch off money and $3.25 in my online account. So I'm the set with the best odds of hitting first, #1 in the list. Since it was my first time playing and I was down to very little play money left, I played boxed in the store and a quarter play online. Of course, it hit straight.

                   

                  Tuesday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/140930.jpg

                  I decide to throw more numbers/money at it and hopefully win more often.  Of course, nothing hit. :(

                   

                  Wednesday: Group #2 on my list hit (I wasn't playing #1 because it had just hit recently and the odds of it going again so soon are NOT good)... I had just played them Tuesday. While my system did give me the right numbers to play, I didn't play them so technically I didn't win here. Here's why I started this post. I changed the numbers I played because of personal bias. The number 7 had hit so much recently, I thought it couldn't possibly hit again. So I didn't play a set with a seven in it. That cost me $500.

                   

                  Thursday: I decide to start playing #1 in my list in the store and #1 and #2 online. Nothing hits.

                   

                  Friday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/141003.jpg

                   

                  Really, really wanted to make an educated guess and chose my sets. But, I didn't want a repeat of Wednesday... played #1 in store, and #1/#2 online. #1 hit, straight, $1,400 win altogether.

                   

                  Here's the in store wins: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/store.jpg

                  In summary, I've spent around $100 (I think) and I've made $1,690. I'm going to guess that this week's lucky is better than average. But, just based on in-store cost/wins. I'll spend $600 and if I hit just twice, I'll make $1000. Leaving a $400 profit. Online is even better because the payout is more.

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
                    United States
                    Member #828
                    November 2, 2002
                    10491 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 3, 2014, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

                    Ok, here's my proof:

                     

                    Monday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/140929.jpg

                    Just polished off a working copy of my system. I had a couple of 20s left in my wallet from my scratch off money and $3.25 in my online account. So I'm the set with the best odds of hitting first, #1 in the list. Since it was my first time playing and I was down to very little play money left, I played boxed in the store and a quarter play online. Of course, it hit straight.

                     

                    Tuesday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/140930.jpg

                    I decide to throw more numbers/money at it and hopefully win more often.  Of course, nothing hit. :(

                     

                    Wednesday: Group #2 on my list hit (I wasn't playing #1 because it had just hit recently and the odds of it going again so soon are NOT good)... I had just played them Tuesday. While my system did give me the right numbers to play, I didn't play them so technically I didn't win here. Here's why I started this post. I changed the numbers I played because of personal bias. The number 7 had hit so much recently, I thought it couldn't possibly hit again. So I didn't play a set with a seven in it. That cost me $500.

                     

                    Thursday: I decide to start playing #1 in my list in the store and #1 and #2 online. Nothing hits.

                     

                    Friday: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/141003.jpg

                     

                    Really, really wanted to make an educated guess and chose my sets. But, I didn't want a repeat of Wednesday... played #1 in store, and #1/#2 online. #1 hit, straight, $1,400 win altogether.

                     

                    Here's the in store wins: http://lottodrawodds.com/wins/store.jpg

                    In summary, I've spent around $100 (I think) and I've made $1,690. I'm going to guess that this week's lucky is better than average. But, just based on in-store cost/wins. I'll spend $600 and if I hit just twice, I'll make $1000. Leaving a $400 profit. Online is even better because the payout is more.

                    Good deal manual. That might be more than my Doctor makes. Before lunch anyway.  LOL 

                     Thanks for the update. 

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    

                      retxx's avatar - mrthumbs
                      BOSTON
                      United States
                      Member #48
                      September 9, 2001
                      3594 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 3, 2014, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

                      nice Manuel. been following you and wonder if it would work on the front 3 in Mass. pick 4 as they do payoff on front 3 back 3 front 2 back 2 as well as all 4.
                      Could you do an example for us for mass. to watch? thanks

                        Avatar

                        United States
                        Member #116344
                        September 8, 2011
                        3928 Posts
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                        Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:36 am - IP Logged

                        So, first, the bias... For those that don't know me, I pay a data based game (I'm a programmer by trade). My latest venture is coding every system I came up with to find the one that hits the most, year over year (tested 4 years back). Two of them performed quite well, one slightly better than the other. To win with that system, it would've taken $10 a play (ten numbers) and played for 30 days. That would generate a win 95% of the time or more. Doing the math, it's not profitable and wins come rather slow. Then there's still the ordering issue, but more on that in a bit. So what I did is coded a script that pulls all of the patterns for the last 30 days. Then I do various stats that give me a % of the best numbers to play, based on what's happened in the past four years. I've been playing for a little under a week and I won $290 on Monday (hadn't won yet so I was playing boxed but luckily, I played online too so that was another $225). Set #1 (ten numbers) in my system's list just came in and not many hits come the day after the pattern so I didn't play that. Midday today, 5-1-7 hit, I had 5-0-7 but that was a legitimate loss, close but an honest loss. 4-4-7 hit tonight but I let my bias creep in and I played set #3 in my list tonight. #2 is what would have it, as a straight. So how many of you have strict rules about what you play? Do you find sticking to a set to be more profitable or is there something to changing? Is anyone religious about changing numbers?

                         

                        Next, ordering. My system is based on box hits. It gives me a pair and I play 0-9 for the last number, that gives me ten numbers to play. So I wrote a little code that tells me how often each order has hit in the past, for whatever pair the system came up with. Most of the time, there's one particular order that has a higher chance of hitting. Here's an example... Right now, Pair 6/9 is #1 in my list. The order that has the highest chance (20.80%) of hitting would look like this: 906,916,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,996

                        I've come up with quite a few stats that give me a good idea what and when I should play. I'd like to come up with some more ways to help me order the pairs but I'm drawing a blank. Any ideas from the Lottery Post collective?

                        I'd like to come up with some more ways to help me order the pairs but I'm drawing a blank. Any ideas from the Lottery Post collective?

                         

                        If your  strategy is to wage only exact bets, then the order of the pairs is doable, you can assume your time frame to  expected prize tag/number of picks. Lets say  you wage 10picks, then you assume your time frame to be  $500(prize tag)/10= 50 draws, you may have multiple str8 hits or recover your cost at end of time frame, see this link.  I suggest  this assumption based on 95% hit rate mentioned in your test, waging online makes the assumption cost effective.

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                          Florida
                          United States
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                          November 27, 2012
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                          Posted: October 4, 2014, 9:22 am - IP Logged

                          I don't expect a win today since I just won yesterday but I'm playing with winnings so it can't hurt... Here are my numbers for today, sets 1 and 3 (#2, the 7/0 pair just hit recently, it might hit again but the odds aren't good).

                           

                          906,916,926,936,946,956,966,976,986,996 (playing online and in-store)

                          024,124,224,324,424,524,624,724,824,924 (playing online)

                            Avatar
                            Florida
                            United States
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                            November 27, 2012
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                            Posted: October 5, 2014, 11:40 am - IP Logged

                            Ok, 9x6 dropped to #2, the new #1 is x33. So the set is 033,133,233,333,433,533,633,733,833,933. I've only been actually playing my system for a week. Haven't had a triple come in before. Think I might sit this one out and see what happens.

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                              Florida
                              United States
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                              November 27, 2012
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                              Posted: October 6, 2014, 11:30 am - IP Logged

                              That 7/0 hit again... not too upset about missing it since I already won plenty off of it. Still, that pair hit quite a bit. Out of my list (18 sets), it appeared twice. Normally, I only look at the top few sets to get my playable numbers because I have it ordered by chance to hit. However, since 7/0 hit so much I was just checking it out. While looking through, I noticed 7/8 appears three times (once as 8/7). The greatest odds of it hitting are x87, or 087, 187,287,387,487,587,687,787,887,987. Not saying it should be played but I find it interesting. Anyone else show anything like that for Florida?