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who is willing to test with me my pick3 system at LP prediction page?

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Hans.

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United States
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June 2, 2012
5431 Posts
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Posted: November 27, 2014, 10:44 pm - IP Logged
Wed, Nov 19, 20143-3-2, Lucky Sum: 8?Prize Payouts
Tue, Nov 18, 20145-5-4, Lucky Sum: 14?Prize Payouts
Mon, Nov 17, 20148-4-0, Lucky Sum: 12?Prize Payouts
Sun, Nov 16, 20145-6-3, Lucky Sum: 14?Prize Payouts
Sat, Nov 15, 20145-2-2, Lucky Sum: 9?Prize Payouts
Fri, Nov 14, 20141-4-7, Lucky Sum: 12?Prize Payouts
Thu, Nov 13, 20148-8-2, Lucky Sum: 18?Prize Payouts
Wed, Nov 12, 20143-4-2, Lucky Sum: 9?Prize Payouts

 

with key digit 2,you can track back 8 drawings to Wed, Nov 12.,when 3-4-2 hit

so let's suppose every 8 drawing you win with the correct key digit,your overall wager is 10*8=80 dollars,a boxed 6 way paid 80 dollars.

And that means you didn't lose and didn't win.

But when it comes to the time you win within 8 drawings,your prize ratio would be above 100%,and while beyond 8 drawings,below 100%.

It's more about timing and how you calculate to play.

Hans

I'm curious to see a month's worth of back testing in any state where all three numbers from the last winning combo was used as a KEY number. Since about 70% of the time, at least one number repeats from the last draw, it would be interesting to see. Of course the cost triples, but how many more wins would there be?...Enough to justify the cost?

    Hans's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
    Monte Carlo
    France
    Member #55589
    October 9, 2007
    1181 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: November 27, 2014, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

    I'm curious to see a month's worth of back testing in any state where all three numbers from the last winning combo was used as a KEY number. Since about 70% of the time, at least one number repeats from the last draw, it would be interesting to see. Of course the cost triples, but how many more wins would there be?...Enough to justify the cost?

    Using only one key digit would be profitable while using last 3 digit would bring the total average prize ratio around 80%,so I suggest using 2 digit,either from past drawing or from any system prediction.

    my system usually predict one or two digit for play,with 20 tickets!

    see the reference at 

     

    VERY VERY NICE HANS! Went back and checked these pairs from the beginning of November (in Texas).

    With the correct banker they would have hit 35 boxes in 65 draws. Or 27 Boxes and 8 straight with the banker in the 3rd position. yellow = pair; blue = banker; green = straight; orange = double

    Texas has four drawings. Morning, Day, Evening and Night. Read across, i.e., 1,3,8,12 would be the morning draw; 4,6,5,15 the day draw; 3,9,4,16 evening, and 7,8,0,15 the night.

    Only 1 day (the 7th) with no hits. 

    But the 13th produced 3 straights in a row.

    Don't know if you've noticed, but the BANKER rarely repeats in wins over these 65 draws. With more data that might change.

    Now to get wayyyyyy out on a limb with a saw in my hand, playing $1 a combo (50/50 box/straight hit), one hit a day ($40 win) would be break even for 4 plays a day ($10 a draw * 4 draws a day). 2 hits  = $80 3 hits = $120

    The 13th (three straights) = $1160. ($580 for the double and $290 for the other two)

    All told one day -$40, three days breaking even. Average winning $180 a day.

    But like I said, I'm way out on a limb since it all comes down to picking the right banker.

    Definitely MAJOR LEAGUE STUFF HANS!

    Thanks,

    G

     

    reference by windsome

    Calculating the last 100 draws for each state's pick 3 the Side Pairs seem to win the most

    Screen shots of Midday, Evening, Combined Front, Back and Side Pairs

    Download folder:

    https://app.box.com/s/7o3ckz5kcl91l4oumi0s

    Of course the key to winning straigt's is selecting the Banker or Key digit whether it be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd digit.

    Pennsylvania Pick 3 Midday draws hit 19 times (side pairs) in the last 100 draws.  The 3,8 side pair being drawn 4 times.

    New York Pick 3 Evening draws hit 19 times (side pairs) in the last 100 draws.  The 8,0 side pair drawn 5 times and 3,8 3 4 times.

    Strive to predict 8 tickets for 12 numbers with Max ROI for Pick6!

      mmx1's avatar - 8ball

      Canada
      Member #90040
      April 20, 2010
      473 Posts
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      Posted: November 28, 2014, 12:04 am - IP Logged

      There is nothing special about "at least one of 3 digits" repeat in the next draw.

      You need to play 136 of 220 box combinations or 61.8 % for one guaranteed hit IF at least one of 3 digits hits next time.

      Odds are the same for any 3 digits.

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3985 Posts
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        Posted: November 28, 2014, 6:45 am - IP Logged

        MO pick-3 midday and evening combined = 10 hits in 16 games, 5ea MD and EV for a hit rate of .625%.

        Figure out a way to pick the correct key and this would be great.  No key, no win.

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3985 Posts
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          Posted: November 28, 2014, 9:44 am - IP Logged

          Hi all

          Here is a simple betting strategy for the pairs hans posted.

          4-3

          8-0

          3-6

          4-5

          9-0

          2-7

          3-7

          6-4

          8-2

          3-8

          In MO p-3 both midday and evening draws the pairs have hit better than 50% since hans posted the

          the list.  I made a few test and found that around every 1 in 3 games a pair of digits taken from the

          previous two drawings shows.

          Example

          11/26/14 = 7-3-1

          11/25/14 = 5-3-7 two previous games
          11/24/14 = 2-5-7

          In the 24th and 25th draws there were 4 total digits that make up both lines 2-3-5-7.  We can get 6 pairs

          from these 4 digits.  Red indicates matches from hans list

          2-3

          2-5

          2-7

          3-5

          3-7

          5-7

          If we look at the previous 2 drawings digits then convert them to all possible pairs and cross-referenced these

          against the pairs posted then we see there are only two.  These are the two pairs we would play for the next 

          drawing.

          When I ran the analysis I only looked for pairs and excluded trays.  What this means is that the key would have

          to come from outside digits.  In this case we would be looking at digits 1-4-6-8-9-0 so if everything falls correctly

          then it would take 12 lines to cover a box hit playing every possible key.   

           

          Given the high hit rates for both it may be worth digging into a little deeper.  Each game setup would be a little

          different depending on the number of overall pairs that can be gotten from the previous two drawings.  This may

          not work every time but could provide a simple means to reduce the number of lines needed if playing hans list as

          one could play just the pairs plus one key digit taken from the outside digits.  These could also be cross-referenced

          so that the key digit does not add to the pairs in hans list.

          example

          if digit 1 were selected as the key then are lines would produce the pairs

          1-2

          1-3

          1-5

          1-7

          none of which are in hans list

          if digit 6 was the key then we would have pairs

          6-2

          6-3

          6-5

          6-7

          one conflicting pair and if we select 4 as the key then

          4-2

          4-3  <- key digit adds another pair match

          4-5  <- key digit adds another pair match

          4-7

          etc.............

          This could provide a means to play a couple lines with a small investment and still give a good overall

          return.  If playing 5 or less lines then one would only have to win around 1 in 20 games to break even.

          I will try to do a few more test to see how this would fair but for the test I have ran it looks interesting.

           

          Anyway, just thinking out loud.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            MrProgrammer's avatar - Lottery-001.jpg

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            November 28, 2014
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            Posted: November 28, 2014, 9:59 am - IP Logged

            Lots of ifs, lots of permutations.  mmx1 seems to have the general analysis down on this one.  Smarter, more out of the box ideas, is what will yield any hidden secrets (= better odds of winning).

            MrProgrammer  Cool

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
              March 13, 2008
              3985 Posts
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              Posted: November 28, 2014, 9:59 am - IP Logged

              I made a few errors but think I got them all edited out before the time ran out but might have missed

              something so beware.

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                United States
                Member #4924
                June 3, 2004
                5912 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: November 28, 2014, 10:01 am - IP Logged

                VERY VERY NICE HANS! Went back and checked these pairs from the beginning of November (in Texas).

                With the correct banker they would have hit 35 boxes in 65 draws. Or 27 Boxes and 8 straight with the banker in the 3rd position. yellow = pair; blue = banker; green = straight; orange = double

                Texas has four drawings. Morning, Day, Evening and Night. Read across, i.e., 1,3,8,12 would be the morning draw; 4,6,5,15 the day draw; 3,9,4,16 evening, and 7,8,0,15 the night.

                Only 1 day (the 7th) with no hits. 

                But the 13th produced 3 straights in a row.

                Don't know if you've noticed, but the BANKER rarely repeats in wins over these 65 draws. With more data that might change.

                Now to get wayyyyyy out on a limb with a saw in my hand, playing $1 a combo (50/50 box/straight hit), one hit a day ($40 win) would be break even for 4 plays a day ($10 a draw * 4 draws a day). 2 hits  = $80 3 hits = $120

                The 13th (three straights) = $1160. ($580 for the double and $290 for the other two)

                All told one day -$40, three days breaking even. Average winning $180 a day.

                But like I said, I'm way out on a limb since it all comes down to picking the right banker.

                Definitely MAJOR LEAGUE STUFF HANS!

                Thanks,

                G

                Gary,

                Have you or anyone else did any testing using ,"completing the cycle?" I think I got the expression from lotterybraker. The values on the right are the number of draws for 0,1 to complete the cycle.

                 

                 

                 

                 

                0,1
                11/28/144872
                11/27/143511
                11/26/143082
                11/26/147595
                11/25/141544
                11/25/149243
                11/24/141182
                11/24/146471
                11/23/148100
                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                  United States
                  Member #59354
                  March 13, 2008
                  3985 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: November 28, 2014, 10:03 am - IP Logged

                  MrProgrammer

                  Don't need permutations if playing box, read what is said.

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    bootleg233's avatar - Lottery-034.jpg
                    Tn
                    United States
                    Member #54963
                    September 4, 2007
                    1164 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: November 28, 2014, 1:53 pm - IP Logged

                    Hi all

                    Here is a simple betting strategy for the pairs hans posted.

                    4-3

                    8-0

                    3-6

                    4-5

                    9-0

                    2-7

                    3-7

                    6-4

                    8-2

                    3-8

                    In MO p-3 both midday and evening draws the pairs have hit better than 50% since hans posted the

                    the list.  I made a few test and found that around every 1 in 3 games a pair of digits taken from the

                    previous two drawings shows.

                    Example

                    11/26/14 = 7-3-1

                    11/25/14 = 5-3-7 two previous games
                    11/24/14 = 2-5-7

                    In the 24th and 25th draws there were 4 total digits that make up both lines 2-3-5-7.  We can get 6 pairs

                    from these 4 digits.  Red indicates matches from hans list

                    2-3

                    2-5

                    2-7

                    3-5

                    3-7

                    5-7

                    If we look at the previous 2 drawings digits then convert them to all possible pairs and cross-referenced these

                    against the pairs posted then we see there are only two.  These are the two pairs we would play for the next 

                    drawing.

                    When I ran the analysis I only looked for pairs and excluded trays.  What this means is that the key would have

                    to come from outside digits.  In this case we would be looking at digits 1-4-6-8-9-0 so if everything falls correctly

                    then it would take 12 lines to cover a box hit playing every possible key.   

                     

                    Given the high hit rates for both it may be worth digging into a little deeper.  Each game setup would be a little

                    different depending on the number of overall pairs that can be gotten from the previous two drawings.  This may

                    not work every time but could provide a simple means to reduce the number of lines needed if playing hans list as

                    one could play just the pairs plus one key digit taken from the outside digits.  These could also be cross-referenced

                    so that the key digit does not add to the pairs in hans list.

                    example

                    if digit 1 were selected as the key then are lines would produce the pairs

                    1-2

                    1-3

                    1-5

                    1-7

                    none of which are in hans list

                    if digit 6 was the key then we would have pairs

                    6-2

                    6-3

                    6-5

                    6-7

                    one conflicting pair and if we select 4 as the key then

                    4-2

                    4-3  <- key digit adds another pair match

                    4-5  <- key digit adds another pair match

                    4-7

                    etc.............

                    This could provide a means to play a couple lines with a small investment and still give a good overall

                    return.  If playing 5 or less lines then one would only have to win around 1 in 20 games to break even.

                    I will try to do a few more test to see how this would fair but for the test I have ran it looks interesting.

                     

                    Anyway, just thinking out loud.

                    RL

                    Keep us up what you find RL!! Interesting!

                    WHEN IT FEELS THE WHOLE WORLD SUCKS!

                    RELAX.........IT'S ONLY GRAVITY Big Smile

                    I think I can I think I can!!!!

                      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                      Park City, UT
                      United States
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                      January 18, 2009
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                      Posted: November 28, 2014, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

                      You guys realize that the 10 pairs Hans posted equate to 450 combinations out of the 1000 possible.

                      So you can expect one of these pairs to hit 45% of the time.

                      Digit 1 is excluded from the pairs so unless you choose 1 as your key digit you have excluded 271 combinations from consideration.

                      Benford followers would never exclude digit 1.

                      Maybe Hans has a good method for picking the key digit but I will pass on the specified 10 pairs.  After all successfully picking the key digit is all that is really needed to win Pick 3 everything else is just gravy.

                      Jimmy

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                        Posted: November 28, 2014, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

                        Subsetting is a sampling choice, anytime you bet, your filter out some digits of the total 1000 combos. The focus is which section of pool need to be filtered out or sampled. Stat percentile is a waging tool, not a predictive method.

                        Hint> Position 1 digit + NP2 (straight) or   Position 1 +NC2 (box) hit, Number of picks is dependent on size of N, remember, that  a digit returns most often.

                          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                          Park City, UT
                          United States
                          Member #69864
                          January 18, 2009
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                          Posted: November 28, 2014, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

                          Subsetting is a sampling choice, anytime you bet, your filter out some digits of the total 1000 combos. The focus is which section of pool need to be filtered out or sampled. Stat percentile is a waging tool, not a predictive method.

                          Hint> Position 1 digit + NP2 (straight) or   Position 1 +NC2 (box) hit, Number of picks is dependent on size of N, remember, that  a digit returns most often.

                          If you were responding to me I never said Stat percentile is a predictive method.  What I said was predicting the key digit by whatever means is more important than some randomly selected static 10 pairs.

                          Jimmy

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                            United States
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                            3928 Posts
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                            Posted: November 28, 2014, 3:21 pm - IP Logged

                            Subsetting is a sampling choice, anytime you bet, your filter out some digits of the total 1000 combos. The focus is which section of pool need to be filtered out or sampled. Stat percentile is a waging tool, not a predictive method.

                            Hint> Position 1 digit + NP2 (straight) or   Position 1 +NC2 (box) hit, Number of picks is dependent on size of N, remember, that  a digit returns most often.

                            Drawing DatePick 3Pick 4
                            MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
                            Fri, Nov 28, 20145-5-71-5-4-5
                            Thu, Nov 27, 20143-5-14-8-79-1-3-10-4-2-0
                            Wed, Nov 26, 20147-5-93-0-82-0-3-75-6-5-0
                            Tue, Nov 25, 20149-2-41-5-46-0-1-55-5-8-9
                            Mon, Nov 24, 20146-4-71-1-89-1-6-63-3-8-6
                            Sun, Nov 23, 20148-0-78-1-09-7-1-75-2-6-1
                            Sat, Nov 22, 20144-9-23-0-50-9-8-28-0-4-4
                            Fri, Nov 21, 20145-6-40-1-11-7-7-53-5-3-7
                            Thu, Nov 20, 20149-8-43-8-03-4-9-76-1-4-2
                            Wed, Nov 19, 20146-5-51-5-71-5-6-35-1-6-4

                            Consider the draw set 564 , with key digits 7,4 as next position 1, I will set the size of N=5, why? based on observations that digit returns, members of N> 5,6,4,9,8,4,6,5,5> 56498

                            Picks for straight> 7 + 5P2(no digit repeat)> 20 picks>{5,6} {5,4} {5,9} {5,8} {6,5} {6,4} {6,9} {6,8} {4,5} {4,6} {4,9} {4,8} {9,5} {9,6} {9,4} {9,8} {8,5} {8,6} {8,4} {8,9}> hit 759

                            Total cost after  5 draws(a type draw-midday) for two keys 7, 4 will be $40 x5 for profit of $300

                            Try draw 380> key 8,1> N= 6, N[ 3,8,0,1,5,7]

                            Picks> 8+6P2> 3,8} {3,0} {3,1} {3,5} {3,7} {8,3} {8,0} {8,1} {8,5} {8,7} {0,3} {0,8} {0,1} {0,5} {0,7} {1,3} {1,8} {1,0} {1,5} {1,7} {5,3} {5,8} {5,0} {5,1} {5,7} {7,3} {7,8} {7,0} {7,1} {7,5}

                            Cost> 60 picks x 4 draws(evening draws)> 240 for prize of  $1000+  with hits 810,118

                            NB> You're subsetting and filtering through the choice key digits (predictive method) and Permutation(waging strategy).

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                              Posted: November 28, 2014, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

                              If you were responding to me I never said Stat percentile is a predictive method.  What I said was predicting the key digit by whatever means is more important than some randomly selected static 10 pairs.

                              Jimmy

                              No, was not responding to you, was just giving information that might help any body.