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Reducing

Topic closed. 27 replies. Last post 2 years ago by manual.

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United States
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September 8, 2011
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Posted: December 17, 2014, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

Depend on how you interpret the hit ratio, '15 doubles for 11 hits' is just observation not a playable scenario.If  the patterns has time frame from one to twenty draws for a hit, how do you correlate the 11 hits? I may pick a pattern and wage for 10 draws and miss most of 11 hits or may change a pattern each double trigger and still lose money.

Keep in mind, I'm saying this method is a system. It's just a method to reduce numbers. I'm working on my 'system' in a programming approach called Agile. First, I want to reduce the numbers to a playable amount (in my mind, that's ten or less) while still retaining a high hit percentage. That's what I'm working on now. After that, I'll work on turning the boxed hits into straights. As for the hit percentage, I should have been more clear. That 73.3% for November is not a true statistic, just more of a glance to show what I'm seeing with the testing I'm doing. On the other hand, the twenty number patter I mentioned has a hit rate of 92%. I've tested that over five years and it's an overall statistic. Year over year, it may fluctuate up or down but if you were to play it, you could expect a hit 92% of the time, if playing twenty numbers over ten days. Wouldn't make money because the numbers have a fair chance of hitting boxed. Plus, who wants to play twenty numbers...

When I go through and test, I do a lot of it 'by hand', testing patterns by going trough the data myself. If something seems to be working, I write a script to test the pattern out to see how much it hits over 5 days, 10 days, and so on. I start testing with 1 year and go out to 5 (20 sometimes if the script executes quick enough). By coding and using SQL to do my testing, I remove bias and human error. The script goes through, finds a double (since that's the trigger I like to use), applies the current pattern I'm testing, then looks to see if it would have hit in the next ten days. It's a fair amount of work but I like to see the outcome. I think it's amazing that some patters get 167 out of a 1000 for some patterns. Others, that may be very similar, can get up into the 700s hits. If a test goes back 5+ years with similar results, the odds that it suddenly changes is not likely. So I'm fairly confident when I say something hits at 72%, it will. I can back it up with years worth of data. Good question. :)

NB>  For strategic wager with ROI in mind, setting N=10 is not big deal so far as ' degree of certainty' is above 50%, ponder on this if you have time.

You lost me... :( Can you explain that a little better?

 

 

 

mmx1: I don't really mind. Long as the thread doesn't get totally derailed. Thank you. :)

 

 

 

onlymoney: Looks like you're seeing hits here too.  What are the question marks for?

 

 

 

Have you tried to program differently? The regular way is not to follow if you run out of memory. I don't really do pick 3, but found that several ways of programming just fail in cases. In one case Excel beats regular OOP. For pick 3 I never considered boxed, I'd rather play couples as alternative. Can you score on front or rear couples, not boxed?

I may be able to work around it, but it'll go much slower. I don't care for boxed either but it's a smaller starting set. Figured if I could get 333 down to ten or less, then I could worry about ordering. Haven't tried font/back pairs. Might look into that, could help with ordering.

 

 

 

Unless you intend on  playing in other states, I wouldn't worry about that. What works in your state, may not work in mine and vice versa. Just try to perfect it for where you are going to play most often. Cool system!!!

Well, I know it works for FL. I figured if it worked elsewhere, it might help some reduce their playable numbers. Plus, it never hurts to share, discuss, test.

NB>  For strategic wager with ROI in mind, setting N=10 is not big deal so far as ' degree of certainty' is above 50%, ponder on this if you have time.

I recalled your ' deviation' system a while ago with 27 picks, which was pretty much  for Straight betting, so  I presumed analysing digits for position 1 and 2 wouldn't be an issue.Imagine having a code that can predict the ' next exact pairs' in range of  10 draws, this will indicate a reduction to just 20 picks for straight bet.

I started this ideal  with just digits for  ' next positions one' and the hit rate is over 50%, but the picks are larger for waging locally. If you can predict position one, then remaining pairs becomes 10C2 or 10P2.

10C2= 10!/2!8!= 45  box pairs

10P2>90  permutations without repeat digit

10P2>100 permutations with  a repeat digit

 Since we're  targeting exact hits, permutation is our focus. focus should be on the ideal not the larger picks, the picks can be reduced later. Pick 3 or 4 has 10 members (0123456789), so setting N=10 , will give the above pairs, but you can reduced N(many ways out there, if you can analysis recent digit trends).

See this link , you may see something overlooked.


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    Posted: December 17, 2014, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

    The question marks show up when I copy and pasta.

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      United States
      Member #116344
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      Posted: December 17, 2014, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

      NB>  For strategic wager with ROI in mind, setting N=10 is not big deal so far as ' degree of certainty' is above 50%, ponder on this if you have time.

      I recalled your ' deviation' system a while ago with 27 picks, which was pretty much  for Straight betting, so  I presumed analysing digits for position 1 and 2 wouldn't be an issue.Imagine having a code that can predict the ' next exact pairs' in range of  10 draws, this will indicate a reduction to just 20 picks for straight bet.

      I started this ideal  with just digits for  ' next positions one' and the hit rate is over 50%, but the picks are larger for waging locally. If you can predict position one, then remaining pairs becomes 10C2 or 10P2.

      10C2= 10!/2!8!= 45  box pairs

      10P2>90  permutations without repeat digit

      10P2>100 permutations with  a repeat digit

       Since we're  targeting exact hits, permutation is our focus. focus should be on the ideal not the larger picks, the picks can be reduced later. Pick 3 or 4 has 10 members (0123456789), so setting N=10 , will give the above pairs, but you can reduced N(many ways out there, if you can analysis recent digit trends).

      See this link , you may see something overlooked.

      Lets use  this chart to illustrate  'next position 1 +10P2'  ideal

      digit        prediction points

      0        7,8

      1        0,6

      3       7,6

      2        9,3

      4        8,9

      5        2,1

      6        3,9

      7        5,4

      8        9,2

      9        6,1

       FL

      Drawing DatePick 3Pick 4
      MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
      Tue, Dec 16, 20144-6-06-6-25-5-3-08-5-8-4
      Mon, Dec 15, 20142-8-67-4-29-3-5-59-6-2-6
      Sun, Dec 14, 20142-4-49-7-35-8-0-82-1-7-6
      Sat, Dec 13, 20145-9-86-2-19-4-2-52-7-5-0
      Fri, Dec 12, 20143-1-30-1-99-0-2-04-9-3-3
      Thu, Dec 11, 20146-6-81-7-95-2-6-93-7-5-4
      Wed, Dec 10, 20149-2-84-2-18-0-7-72-8-8-6
      Tue, Dec 9, 20141-4-75-2-51-1-9-27-8-5-3
      Mon, Dec 8, 20143-3-78-3-57-2-4-92-7-6-9
      Sun, Dec 7, 20149-5-61-5-71-5-6-37-4-6-1

       

      Draw                 trigger         pos 1 digits           Exact hit          span (combined draws)     type D draws 

      956 D                    9                 6,1                     157,147              4                                 147, 668  (+4) 

      Cost(local)>800 , prize 1000,  other outlet > cost 800, prize 1800, ROI ???

       

      157E                     1                    0,6                  019,621            type E      +6

       cost(local) 1200, prize 1000  ,, other 1200, 1800

      337D(day)                  3                      7,6                    668           type  D( span)  3

      cost 600, prize 500,    cost 600, prize 900

      835 E                         8                      9,2                  973   xxxxxx, 

      147                      1                   0,6                           668

      The picks are larger for local wage, can we turn this into 'Positional pairs' for reduced picks?

        Igamble's avatar - spider
        nj
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        August 10, 2013
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        Posted: December 17, 2014, 2:32 pm - IP Logged

        NB>  For strategic wager with ROI in mind, setting N=10 is not big deal so far as ' degree of certainty' is above 50%, ponder on this if you have time.

        I recalled your ' deviation' system a while ago with 27 picks, which was pretty much  for Straight betting, so  I presumed analysing digits for position 1 and 2 wouldn't be an issue.Imagine having a code that can predict the ' next exact pairs' in range of  10 draws, this will indicate a reduction to just 20 picks for straight bet.

        I started this ideal  with just digits for  ' next positions one' and the hit rate is over 50%, but the picks are larger for waging locally. If you can predict position one, then remaining pairs becomes 10C2 or 10P2.

        10C2= 10!/2!8!= 45  box pairs

        10P2>90  permutations without repeat digit

        10P2>100 permutations with  a repeat digit

         Since we're  targeting exact hits, permutation is our focus. focus should be on the ideal not the larger picks, the picks can be reduced later. Pick 3 or 4 has 10 members (0123456789), so setting N=10 , will give the above pairs, but you can reduced N(many ways out there, if you can analysis recent digit trends).

        See this link , you may see something overlooked.

        I think if you want to b informative with your method we can find it under your posts...why i have to waste a few seconds becouse of your "degree of certainty " belief which is worthless..i actually know the guy a little more  who invented this 85%  BS(it works in 15% of cases and thats not gopd enough !!!) and he is trying to hard but he is good in certain aspects of the game...and i can defineyly tell you ...it is crap.

         the DOC misleading  parameter can stay in maybe 15-35% of cases  at 99.999999% for many weeks,months and are you reimbursing amateurs players for believeing into this false ipotezis ??

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          Florida
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          Posted: December 18, 2014, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

          This is the other example, using 20 sets. Not sure why this works so well but it does. Again, it relies on doubles. Once a double hits, you do a workout that gives you twenty sets. One of those numbers will hit, typically boxed, within 10 days (or twenty draws) 91% of the time. I've tested twenty years worth of lottery results for FL and varying amount of time for a few other states (GA, NY, NC, MI, TX) with similar results. Except for CA, that state had a massive hike in # of doubles, need to look into that. Here's the workout. It's worth noting that I don't have much data for NC, MI and TX.

           

          Example #1: If the double is a 1, it would look like this.

          Position A would be a 1 (the double) and a 6 (the mirror of one)

          Position B would be 0 (double minus 1) and a 2 (double plus 1)

          Position C would be 7 (double minus   4), 6 (double minus   3), 1 (double), 3 (double plus   2), and 4 (double plus   3)

           

          Example #2: If the double is an 8.

          Position A: 8, 3

          Position B: 7, 9

          Position C: 4, 3, 8, 0, 1

           

          The position A workout will probably make sense to most of you. Position B might seem weird but looks like it might work. Position C, I have no explanation for. I just ran a script to see what worked best and that was it. That script only tested the 5 combinations for the third position. This is why I've been trying to write a scrip that will test all of the positions. From there, I'd like to try testing different numbers played for each position. For instance, instead of Pos A being two numbers, Pos B having 2, and Pos C having 5. I'd like to do a 1/3/3, 1/2/5, or 2/2/2. I'd love to see those results since a twenty set list can still hit so often.

          Now, of course, everyone is still thinking this is crazy because if you play 20 numbers for 10 days (20 draws), or even if you get a hit after 10 draws [and stop playing], and get a box hit, that's a nice loss. I can't disagree with you there but that's not the point. This point is, if just trying to hit box, you start with a list of 333 sets. One of those numbers will hit. There's a 100% chance of it but you have to pick 1 out of 333. On the other hand, the above workout will reduce the set list down to 20 and still have a 90%+ chance to hit. Although you have to play for 10 days. I'd rather have the 20 sets. 

          I plan to keep working on this to see if I can find a way to play just one set (six ways) and still hit often enough. Or maybe I play 10 numbers (one way) and find a way to order them. Everyone has their method for attacking this lottery thing. This is mine. :)

            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
            Park City, UT
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            Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

            The math says that any randomly selected 20 single box combinations that equate to 120 straight combinations should hit within 19.75 draws 92% of the time.  Shouldn't matter if a double hit or not as a trigger.

            Jimmy

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              Florida
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              Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

              The math says that any randomly selected 20 single box combinations that equate to 120 straight combinations should hit within 19.75 draws 92% of the time.  Shouldn't matter if a double hit or not as a trigger.

              Jimmy

              I can show you combinations that have a horrible hit percentage. I've run a lot of tests but I think one was in the teens.

                jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                Park City, UT
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                Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:21 pm - IP Logged

                I can show you combinations that have a horrible hit percentage. I've run a lot of tests but I think one was in the teens.

                For those horrible hit percentages how many straight combinations do those 20 box combinations equate to?  If its less than 120 then I would expect them to perform worse than every 19.75 draws.

                Jimmy

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                  Florida
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                  Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

                  For those horrible hit percentages how many straight combinations do those 20 box combinations equate to?  If its less than 120 then I would expect them to perform worse than every 19.75 draws.

                  Jimmy

                  Honestly don't know. Didn't look into that at the time because the numbers weren't high... Wish I had kept that version of the script... :(

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
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                    Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:32 pm - IP Logged

                    As a test when a double hits instead of using whatever formula you currently are using to generate your 20 combinations what if you instead took the last 6 unique digits that have hit and box them into their 20 combinations.  Those will equate to 120 straight combinations.  If your formula outperforms that algorithm for all states over a statistically significant number of years then you have indeed found a killer formula.

                    Jimmy

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                      Florida
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                      Posted: December 18, 2014, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

                      heh, believe it or not, I'm doing that right now. I've got to where it inserts the 120 combinations into a table. From there, I'll play with that data to see which of each set of 120 combinations hit. Then try to figure out why or at the least, a common denominator that hits the most... As always, it's a work in progress.


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                        Posted: December 22, 2014, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

                        Nice Job,

                        Florida,

                         

                        0: 089, 039, 058, 019, 049, 088, 059, 048, 099, 079
                        1: 109, 129, 102, 182, 169, 176, 112, 178, 137, 147
                        2: 268, 208, 210, 218, 230, 260, 258, 200, 263, 288
                        3: 396, 376, 316, 346, 397, 395, 385, 315, 398, 391
                        4: 460, 450, 436, 430, 466, 456, 457, 417, 492, 432
                        5: 597, 567, 569, 537, 547, 506, 583, 513, 543, 541
                        6: 684, 634, 614, 638, 654, 624, 618, 613, 644, 698
                        7: 734, 784, 714, 738, 731, 764, 754, 716, 702, 774
                        8: 861, 801, 851, 836, 856, 866, 847, 897, 826, 846
                        9: 935, 925, 955, 933, 923, 965, 928, 948, 912, 922

                        Wed, Dec 3, 20143-1-6?
                        Thu, Nov 27, 20143-5-1?
                        Thu, Nov 13, 20141-3-5?
                        Wed, Nov 12, 20143-3-9?
                        Sat, Nov 15, 20143-3-4?

                         

                         

                         

                        Wed, Dec 3, 20143-1-6
                        Fri, Nov 21, 20145-6-4?
                        Sun, Nov 16, 20144-6-6?

                         

                         

                         

                        Tue, Dec 9, 20141-4-7?
                        Fri, Dec 12, 20140-1-9
                        Fri, Nov 21, 20140-1-1?
                        Mon, Nov 24, 20141-1-8?

                         

                         

                         

                        Sun, Dec 7, 20149-5-6?
                        Mon, Dec 8, 20148-3-5?
                        Sun, Nov 30, 20145-4-5?

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        Tue, Dec 9, 20141-4-7
                        Tue, Dec 2, 20144-4-0?
                        Sat, Nov 29, 20140-4-4?

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        Mon, Dec 15, 20142-8-6?
                        Sat, Dec 6, 20142-8-0
                        Wed, Dec 3, 20142-2-5
                        Mon, Dec 1, 20142-2-8?

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        Tue, Dec 9, 20141-4-7?
                        Fri, Dec 5, 20147-7-7?

                        This is an update for Florida. I'm still waiting for the numbers in the 6 line to show.

                        Since my last post, there have been a couple of more hits.

                         

                        I also noticed something else. A lot of the new hits are showing on the chart adjacent to an existing winner. As an example, look at the recent winner 457. It is located right next to the 417. So the next time there's a double 00, I may play the adjacent numbers to 097, like 099. Another example is, if a double 11 shows, I may play the adjacent numbers like 129 and 137.

                        The last example would be, if a double 22 shows, I'd play 263, and 288 because they are adjacent to the 147, and 258 and 200 because they are adjacent to the 315. This may be a good way to reduce costs.

                        So for tonight, I'm still waiting on one of the numbers from line 6. The adjacent numbers to the existing winners in red are 638-624-618, and 644.

                         

                         

                        Sun, Dec 14, 20142-4-4
                        Thu, Dec 18, 20140-0-74-1-7
                        Mon, Dec 22, 20145-7-4

                         

                         

                        Thu, Dec 18, 20140-0-7
                        Sun, Dec 21, 20140-9-7

                         

                         

                        0: 089, 039, 058, 019, 049, 088, 059, 048, 099, 079
                        1: 109, 129, 102, 182, 169, 176, 112, 178, 137, 147
                        2: 268, 208, 210, 218, 230, 260, 258, 200, 263, 288
                        3: 396, 376, 316, 346, 397, 395, 385, 315, 398, 391
                        4: 460, 450, 436, 430, 466, 456, 457, 417, 492, 432
                        5: 597, 567, 569, 537, 547, 506, 583, 513, 543, 541
                        6: 684, 634, 614, 638, 654, 624, 618, 613, 644, 698
                        7: 734, 784, 714, 738, 731, 764, 754, 716, 702, 774
                        8: 861, 801, 851, 836, 856, 866, 847, 897, 826, 846
                        9: 935, 925, 955, 933, 923, 965, 928, 948, 912, 922

                          Avatar
                          Florida
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                          Posted: December 25, 2014, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                          Nice catch on the adjacent thing, I hadn't noticed that. Might be worth looking into more.

                           

                          Still, it's silly how it hits often enough even though the numbers don't change, right? I thought it was weird so I wanted to get more opinions/testing on it. Thanks for the info! :)