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Are my odds BETTER than yours?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 2 years ago by RJOh.

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BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3102 Posts
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Posted: January 4, 2015, 3:40 am - IP Logged

there is a page on the web some where, a guy  recorded 10 000 random selections of lotto numbers to the weeks draw for a year and totalled their   presumed gains. used a spread sheet or something.  end result is would have spent more than he would have won. hell i can do that on only 20 lines a week thus losing  a lot less money

In my opinion bulk fake computerized lotto draws are only worthwhile when working with lotteries that hold their drawings in a computer.  They are not of value compared to ball drop games because those games have test draws and swap machines if the draws aren't considered random enough.  This often results in unexpected consequences of actual draws that would appear to be more in common then expected from actual random.

BobP

    savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
    adelaide sa
    Australia
    Member #37136
    April 11, 2006
    3300 Posts
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    Posted: January 4, 2015, 7:11 am - IP Logged

    In my opinion bulk fake computerized lotto draws are only worthwhile when working with lotteries that hold their drawings in a computer.  They are not of value compared to ball drop games because those games have test draws and swap machines if the draws aren't considered random enough.  This often results in unexpected consequences of actual draws that would appear to be more in common then expected from actual random.

    BobP

    Point taken, but it was many many years ago i saw it. I felt humbled at the statistic that the odds of my playing my small set compared to an impossibly larger set had no real relative difference. except maybe an above average win for my set, would have a great affect on my ROI compared to the 10k set. as a lot of the prize money is allocated down the lower end of the prize pool. getting it up over 100% would more achievable to me. but it did instill in me my greatest  asset for a gaining a pot is being in the game and a giant dose of luck.

    2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

    keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
      United States
      Member #380
      June 5, 2002
      3102 Posts
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      Posted: January 4, 2015, 8:08 am - IP Logged

      Point taken, but it was many many years ago i saw it. I felt humbled at the statistic that the odds of my playing my small set compared to an impossibly larger set had no real relative difference. except maybe an above average win for my set, would have a great affect on my ROI compared to the 10k set. as a lot of the prize money is allocated down the lower end of the prize pool. getting it up over 100% would more achievable to me. but it did instill in me my greatest  asset for a gaining a pot is being in the game and a giant dose of luck.

      Whether you play one line or one hundred lines your odds are pretty much zero.  That's one way of looking at it.  On the other hand, take a 6/49 game with odds of 13.9 million to 1 and use an odds calculator to see what happens when you play 12 numbers instead of 6.  The odds of having all 6 winning numbers among those you are playing drop from 1 in 13.9 million to 1 in 15,134 that is a real difference and it isn't impossible to play a 12 number full wheel, though I'd rather play a (12,6,4,6)=6 and take my chances, the odds of 6 among 12 remain the same. 


      BobP

        mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
        JACKPOT HUNTER

        United States
        Member #141034
        April 2, 2013
        1408 Posts
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        Posted: January 4, 2015, 8:29 am - IP Logged

        People have played for the first time, bought 1 ticket and won{so they claimed}. People have also bought 1000's of tickets and lost. Disregard the odds and just play the games you can afford to play if you truly like those games.

        Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

        Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19817 Posts
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          Posted: January 4, 2015, 11:27 am - IP Logged

          Whether you play one line or one hundred lines your odds are pretty much zero.  That's one way of looking at it.  On the other hand, take a 6/49 game with odds of 13.9 million to 1 and use an odds calculator to see what happens when you play 12 numbers instead of 6.  The odds of having all 6 winning numbers among those you are playing drop from 1 in 13.9 million to 1 in 15,134 that is a real difference and it isn't impossible to play a 12 number full wheel, though I'd rather play a (12,6,4,6)=6 and take my chances, the odds of 6 among 12 remain the same. 


          BobP

          Playing a full pick6 wheel with 12 numbers would take 924 lines.  I would think if you were prepared to play that many lines there were be better strategies than limiting yourself to twelve numbers because you're still only covering 0.006% of the possible combinations.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
            adelaide sa
            Australia
            Member #37136
            April 11, 2006
            3300 Posts
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            Posted: January 6, 2015, 2:39 am - IP Logged

            i took bobp advice and played a wheel for tue night not 6 lines but  8, and not 12 numbers but  all of the numbers minus the ones that where drawn last week. ie 36 numbers.

             

            heres is to none of last weeks numbers coming out. i should also go put a hedge on  playing all 7 of the drawn numbers just incase

            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19817 Posts
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              Posted: January 6, 2015, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

              Who told you that?

              Sounds like something he told himself. Jester

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking