|Posted: February 11, 2015, 1:38 pm - IP Logged|
As of this very moment there's about a 50% chance that it will roll again. A couple of years ago I'd have figured that a rollover when it was already at 500+ would almost certainly mean reaching a billion, but now I'm very skeptical. It's looking like tonight's final tally won't be very much past 500, for an increase of only 105 to 130 million from the last one. That's half of what we saw for the record PB jackpot in November 2012.
I expect that 2 more rolls would finally push it to a billion, so the chances of a billion dollar jackpot next Wednesday are perhaps 5 to 10%.
After the matrix change we can expect average jackpots to be about 50% bigger. We've been seeing jackpots of 500+ about once a year, so we can expect that once a year we'll be seeing jackpot in the 700 to 800 range. Figuring that those will have perhaps a 20 to 25% chance of rolling we might expect that once every 4 or 5 years it could hit $1 billion.