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# I need help calculating my odds

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20065 Posts
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 Posted: February 10, 2015, 3:46 am - IP Logged

That has to be a typo.  I noticed the same thing on Powerball.  For Powerball it says to pick a powerball from 1 to 35 but then it says the odds of getting the powerball are 1:55

So, if you play MegaMillions and buy 15 tickets, each with a megaball from 1 to 15 then your odds are clearly 1:1 aren't they?

In other words if you buy the 15 megaballs then your chances of wining the megaball are 100%, so why do they say 1 in 21?

No it's not a typo.  When you calculate the odds there are 258,890,850 possible combinations and 12,103,014 combinations of 0+1 which is 12,103,014/258,890,850 = 1/21

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
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 Posted: February 12, 2015, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

The odds of not winning a single exact pick3 is 999/1000.

The odds of not winning a single exact pick4 is 9999/10000.

So the odds of not winning both pick3 and pick4 would be 999/1000 * 9999/10000 which is .9989001.

So the odds of winning either a pick3 or pick4 would be 1 - .9989001 or .0010999

Jimmy

 win one: 0,0010998 win both: 0,0000001 lose both: 0,9989001 checksum 1

Matrix

 p3/p4 0,0001 0,9999 0,001 0,0000001 0,0009999 0,999 0,0000999 0,9989001
Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
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 Posted: February 12, 2015, 7:27 pm - IP Logged
 win one: 0,0010998 win both: 0,0000001 lose both: 0,9989001 checksum 1

Matrix

 p3/p4 0,0001 0,9999 0,001 0,0000001 0,0009999 0,999 0,0000999 0,9989001

W3*L4 + L3*W4 + W3*W4

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
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 Posted: February 14, 2015, 9:32 am - IP Logged

If I play pick 3 (1 in 1,000), AND pick 4 exact (1 in 10,000), what are my overall combined odds of winning something?

The overall chance is exactly the same because you have only one chance to win. A 24 way box has 416.67 to 1 chance of winning something and a 12-way box has a 1 in 833.33.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7498 Posts
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 Posted: February 14, 2015, 9:36 am - IP Logged

No it's not a typo.  When you calculate the odds there are 258,890,850 possible combinations and 12,103,014 combinations of 0+1 which is 12,103,014/258,890,850 = 1/21

It's sort of a trick question because it excludes the winning combos matching 1 to 5 numbers with the bonus number.

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