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I need help calculating my odds

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Stack47.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19813 Posts
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Posted: February 10, 2015, 3:46 am - IP Logged

That has to be a typo.  I noticed the same thing on Powerball.  For Powerball it says to pick a powerball from 1 to 35 but then it says the odds of getting the powerball are 1:55

 

So, if you play MegaMillions and buy 15 tickets, each with a megaball from 1 to 15 then your odds are clearly 1:1 aren't they?

In other words if you buy the 15 megaballs then your chances of wining the megaball are 100%, so why do they say 1 in 21?

No it's not a typo.  When you calculate the odds there are 258,890,850 possible combinations and 12,103,014 combinations of 0+1 which is 12,103,014/258,890,850 = 1/21

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
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    Posted: February 12, 2015, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

    The odds of not winning a single exact pick3 is 999/1000.

    The odds of not winning a single exact pick4 is 9999/10000.

    So the odds of not winning both pick3 and pick4 would be 999/1000 * 9999/10000 which is .9989001.

    So the odds of winning either a pick3 or pick4 would be 1 - .9989001 or .0010999

    Jimmy

    win one:0,0010998
    win both:0,0000001
    lose both:0,9989001
    checksum1

    Matrix

    p3/p40,00010,9999
    0,0010,00000010,0009999
    0,9990,00009990,9989001
      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
      Economy class
      Belgium
      Member #123700
      February 27, 2012
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      Posted: February 12, 2015, 7:27 pm - IP Logged
      win one:0,0010998
      win both:0,0000001
      lose both:0,9989001
      checksum1

      Matrix

      p3/p40,00010,9999
      0,0010,00000010,0009999
      0,9990,00009990,9989001

      W3*L4 + L3*W4 + W3*W4

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        Kentucky
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        Member #32652
        February 14, 2006
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        Posted: February 14, 2015, 9:32 am - IP Logged

        If I play pick 3 (1 in 1,000), AND pick 4 exact (1 in 10,000), what are my overall combined odds of winning something?

        The overall chance is exactly the same because you have only one chance to win. A 24 way box has 416.67 to 1 chance of winning something and a 12-way box has a 1 in 833.33.

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
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          Posted: February 14, 2015, 9:36 am - IP Logged

          No it's not a typo.  When you calculate the odds there are 258,890,850 possible combinations and 12,103,014 combinations of 0+1 which is 12,103,014/258,890,850 = 1/21

          It's sort of a trick question because it excludes the winning combos matching 1 to 5 numbers with the bonus number.