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October 16, 2005
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Quote: Originally posted by bobby623 on Mar 11, 2015
After reading hundreds of posts, I often wonder if lottery players really know how a lottery digit/number becomes a winning digit/number.
I watch the Texas lottery drawings 4 times per day.
Different machines and ball sets are used, but the question remains - how are winning digits/numbers determined.
Best answer I can come up with is a digit/number becomes a winner by chance. In other words, the digit/numbers closest to
the machine's escape exit when the gate is opened during a drawing are crowned winners.
I've never seen anything that indicates the 37 balls in the Texas Cash 5 are capable of being added, subtracted, multiplied or
divided, yet there are many so called systems that manipulate the balls as if they are animated objects rather being round, numbered balls that are dumber than dirt.
Be nice if someone could explain how that happens, the mathematical part, that is.
I suppose the best answer is that the digits/numbers become winners according to random actions within a mixing vessel.
Gravity, speed, position, chance are the only factors I can come up with.
How about you?
"In other words, the digit/numbers closest to the machine's escape exit when the gate is opened during a drawing are crowned winners. "
It's not nearly that simple. Every ball has momentum, and needs to be deflected in order to escape through the exit unless the momentum is already carrying it straight towards the opening. If momentum is already carrying a ball directly toward the exit it has to not be deflected before escaping. Because of the mixing, the momentum of any particular ball changes frequently. All things being equal, a ball that's moving more or less towards the exit may be more likely to escape than a ball that's a bit closer but moving away at the moment that the exit is opened. Of course a ball that's farther away and also moving away could be deflected with sufficient force to be the one that escapes.
I expect that if you could get a precise measure of each ball's momentum a very short time before the exit is opened it would be possible to make very accurate predictions for which ball would be the first through the opening. Of course it's impossible to measure the momentum and calculate the odds while it's actually happening.
The flip side of using current momentum to calculate which balls are most likely to be selected is that it's impossible to make an accurate prediction if you don't know when the exit will open. While ball # 5 might be most likely at one instant it will be a very unlikely choice a very short time before or after that instant. That's why there is no math to back up the claims of a "system". There's no way to know how long the mixing will take place and when the exit will open, or to know about each ball's momentum at that moment. The only thing math can do is identify numerical relationships in past results. Even those relationships may be illusions. Since there are multiple sets of balls, having #5 selected in consecutive drawings may not mean that the same ball was selected. The past results can't be used to predict future results.
In the case of numbers selected by an RNG it would be possible to make some predictions if you knew all the parameters affecting the calculations of the RNG, but it's very unlikely that you'll have all of them. The selection of the seed is somewhat analogous to the opening of the exit in a ball machine. Knowing exactly how the seed will be manipulated to produce the final result won't let you predict that result if you don't know what the seed will be.
Of course that all assumes that everything works the way it's intended to. If all of the balls aren't exactly identical some may be affected a bit more or less than others by the forces acting on them, and that might (or might not) make them more or less likely to be selected. A faulty RNG might produce a result that's different that what should have be calculated, or it might even be possible to make a prediction of the seed that will narrow the possible results. Even in those cases, since lotteries generally keep half of the money you won't gain an edge unless you can cut the odds by at least 50%.
