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How can I validate my system is getting closer to picking better numbers?

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 2 years ago by SergeM.

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Posted: June 2, 2015, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

MegaMillions...  Numbers appearing in ( ) represent the ball number in terms of the conversation, except the spreadsheet formula.

 

I'm going into this knowing that it's impossible to pick random numbers.  Be that as it may, still having fun trying to develop a program to create a pool of numbers to draw from.  I prefer cold numbers over hot numbers.  I am thinking along the lines of a coin toss in that the same side of coin becomes increasingly less possible to get consecutively over time.  If you get HH HH HH, the forth coin toss is likely HT, for example.  Man, I hope I understand that!  If the number is cold, I increase the number of times the number appears in the pool.  If the number is hot, I decrease the number of times the number appears in the pool.  I actually do this twice.  I have one series for the number of times the number has been drawn.  I have another series for the number of draws since last appeared.  If the ball has just been drawn, it gets a quantity of 1 in the pool.  If the number was last drawn 10 plays ago, it goes in the pool 10 times.  So on and so forth.

 

In one of my pools, there are over 1000 numbers, ranging from (1) to (75).  Lets just say an even 1000.  I create a pseudo random number between 1-1000, randbetween(1,1000) in this example.  Column A contains the sequential list of 1-1000.  In column B, the list of numbers (1) to (75) in whatever quantity of coldness I have determined.  I lookup the randbetween to find the number in column B.  There may be 20 of number (1), 5 of number (2), 8 of number (3) in this list.  Hope you get the idea.  If random number 23 is generated, then that equates to ball (2).

 

Is there a way to say that my pool of coldness is closer to making a better series of number, or no way at all?

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: June 2, 2015, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

    The results of your picks will speak for themselves.  The more they win the closer your are.  You've hit your target when you win a jackpot.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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      Posted: June 2, 2015, 4:15 pm - IP Logged

      The results of your picks will speak for themselves.  The more they win the closer your are.  You've hit your target when you win a jackpot.

      Winning net like $ 2000 every month is as nice as a jackpot. Maybe a bit stressful.

        Igamble's avatar - spider
        nj
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        Posted: June 3, 2015, 1:10 am - IP Logged

        Pretty good filter Goggiemoogie !

          Igamble's avatar - spider
          nj
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          Posted: June 3, 2015, 1:12 am - IP Logged

           good filter =system validated !

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            Posted: June 3, 2015, 2:05 am - IP Logged

            GM

            You can stimulate a RNG to simulate the draw history for a game but the problem is that

            you still have to decide when to play some value.  Jade has posted some good stuff on

            this and I suggest you study his recent post.   There are many ways to analyze how your

            system is doing overall just look for the places it missed and see if anything can be done

            to improve the outcome. 

            RL

            ....

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: June 3, 2015, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

              Winning net like $ 2000 every month is as nice as a jackpot. Maybe a bit stressful.

              Are you one of those dreamers who think one can have a monthly income playing the lotteries? Disapprove

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                Dallas, Texas
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                Posted: June 3, 2015, 3:03 pm - IP Logged

                The real question in validating your theory is how well is your determination of hotness and coldness working?

                In generating 1000 permutations, if you are not weighting the hotness and coldness, then there would be no way to determine the validity.

                Your post sounds like an attempt to trap numbers. And there is nothing wrong with that. A single trap can be misleading since trends, flows, and skips are not set in stone. Look for a convergence of several traps.

                My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                  Posted: June 3, 2015, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

                  Are you one of those dreamers who think one can have a monthly income playing the lotteries? Disapprove

                   That could be easier to realize then winning a jackpot.

                    Igamble's avatar - spider
                    nj
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                    Posted: June 3, 2015, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                    The big 2  issues -WHAT numbers will b  the winning ones 

                                            and  WHEN they will appear ...

                    Solving both is challenging and can b rewarding.One without the other is useless. Time frame,$ invested ...WHAT  numbers ..and WHEN !

                    A lot of systems to solve the WHAT ..but for WHEN not much work put in. Maybe skips -average skip or highest skip ...play on the high skip ..you b waiting  for a while...do it for the avg. skip maybe you loose a few times and win  other times...profit ? maybe yes ,maybe no...

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: June 5, 2015, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                       That could be easier to realize then winning a jackpot.

                      I've never seen a game with a payout structure that made that possible but I am guessing there may be schemers that would claim it is using their system.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        Posted: June 6, 2015, 5:29 am - IP Logged

                        I've never seen a game with a payout structure that made that possible but I am guessing there may be schemers that would claim it is using their system.

                        Consider a lucky streak missing the jackpot with many combinations and getting many second prizes?