|Posted: June 21, 2015, 4:20 pm - IP Logged|
"I think right now the "spend more to win more" campaign is being driven by cash hungry states."
I don't blame the states but the players themselves, they are victims of their own folly. They back test a system knowing what the results should be and think that proves it will work in a future that they have no idea of what the results might be. Instead of back testing they should forward test their systems many times before trying them for real.
If a system is forward tested and it would have won, it doesn't mean an opportunity was missed but rather that more opportunities exists. I'm sure many of the predictions posted on the prediction board are the results of system that back testing proved they worked but the results speak for themselves. When was the last time a member posted a prediction that would have won a jackpot?
Honestly, I have no idea about the prediction board. Quit going there a long time ago. When people post 50 numbers/all state, its not a prediction, its a "caught in the numbers act."
This is the same path taken on the Systems board. Its no longer filled with thought, idea, or exploration on how to use stats and probability in a predictable method.
Statistics and probability should be the bare bones, the facts necessary to draw some rational, well founded conclusion; not an end all predictive method without fail.
What we're seeing from the nerfball ninjas is a regurgitation of the old Martingale system which said statistically this has to happen. If it hasn't happened by this time, double your bet. And keep doubling your bet until it does (or until the cost is far too much for you to afford).
The sad part, they don't realize their new idea, their "predictive method" if you will, is in some cases older than they. Neither is it new, nor predictive.
My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"