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The Real Reason Why The Powerball Lottery Game Jackpot Will Be Impossible To Win At Odds Of 1:292M

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 1 year ago by SkyLine69.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
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Posted: September 15, 2015, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

Just eliminating numbers 70-75 from your play in MM reduces the combinations from 258,890,850 to 168,577,695, wiping 90,313,155 combinations off the table.

Of course, if a number in the 70's is drawn, well, better luck next time.

Just as effective or maybe more is eliminating numbers from position in sorted combinations.  My experiences with Ohio's Classic Lotto(6/49) have reduced the number of combinations from 14M to 7M using all 49 numbers and still having the winning combination 90% of the time.  That's like playing a 6/44 game which reduces the chances of matching 3/6 from 1:57  to 1:42 which isn't very helpful since 3/6 only pays $2.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    Kentucky
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    February 14, 2006
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    Posted: September 15, 2015, 1:57 pm - IP Logged

    "How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?"

    That's an interesting question and it's probably not 259M for MM or 175M for PB but still more than a single person or group could afford.  Maybe a better question would be "How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the second prizes of a million dollars in either game?", that might an amount a small group of investors could afford.

    Having said that the next question would be "How does one go about eliminating some of the 240M MM or 179M PB combinations that win nothing each drawing.  Knowing the answer to that question would be helpful even if you only brought 5-10 tickets per drawing.

    After eliminating 7 MM bonus numbers there are still 138,075,120 combos so I'm not sure there is a realistic number of combos to play. I did some experimenting when we were discussing a 28 number wheel and got it down to about 5000 combos using a 4 if 4 wheel, but was necessary to use the Megaplier to make the play realistic. And spending $10,000 a drawing on MM may not be realistic to very many players.

    On paper, keying three numbers playing a 5/39 might eventually catch a jackpot, but the investment depends on matching the three numbers more than average and of course timing. I started predicting two All or Nothing games to test a couple of wheels and while I'm averaging more than average hits, I'm not getting enough quality hits. To win a jackpot, I'll probably need 1.35 million picks, but I only made about 10%.

    As for realistic chances of winning that top prize, six combos are as good as 20, but for winning something, probably 40 combos.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: September 15, 2015, 2:33 pm - IP Logged

      After eliminating 7 MM bonus numbers there are still 138,075,120 combos so I'm not sure there is a realistic number of combos to play. I did some experimenting when we were discussing a 28 number wheel and got it down to about 5000 combos using a 4 if 4 wheel, but was necessary to use the Megaplier to make the play realistic. And spending $10,000 a drawing on MM may not be realistic to very many players.

      On paper, keying three numbers playing a 5/39 might eventually catch a jackpot, but the investment depends on matching the three numbers more than average and of course timing. I started predicting two All or Nothing games to test a couple of wheels and while I'm averaging more than average hits, I'm not getting enough quality hits. To win a jackpot, I'll probably need 1.35 million picks, but I only made about 10%.

      As for realistic chances of winning that top prize, six combos are as good as 20, but for winning something, probably 40 combos.

      "And spending $10,000 a drawing on MM may not be realistic to very many players."

      From many of the posts at LP I'm beginning to think many players think spending even $10 on a MM drawing is not realistic regardless of the jackpot amount.  Many of them whine about the time they brought a MM ticket and won nothing and losing their dollar.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
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        New Member
        auckland
        New Zealand
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        Posted: September 15, 2015, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

        Power ball is just a gimmick just to get more money from players.

        You will win more prizes not playing power ball and its cheaper.

        Cheers

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: September 15, 2015, 7:39 pm - IP Logged

          Power ball is just a gimmick just to get more money from players.

          You will win more prizes not playing power ball and its cheaper.

          Cheers

          "You will win more prizes not playing power ball and its cheaper."

          Which games are you suggesting to play instead?  Or are you saying don't play lottery games at all?  And if you're not playing any games where are these prizes  you expect to win coming from?

          "You definitely can't win if you're not playing"

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
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            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: September 16, 2015, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

            After eliminating 7 MM bonus numbers there are still 138,075,120 combos so I'm not sure there is a realistic number of combos to play. I did some experimenting when we were discussing a 28 number wheel and got it down to about 5000 combos using a 4 if 4 wheel, but was necessary to use the Megaplier to make the play realistic. And spending $10,000 a drawing on MM may not be realistic to very many players.

            On paper, keying three numbers playing a 5/39 might eventually catch a jackpot, but the investment depends on matching the three numbers more than average and of course timing. I started predicting two All or Nothing games to test a couple of wheels and while I'm averaging more than average hits, I'm not getting enough quality hits. To win a jackpot, I'll probably need 1.35 million picks, but I only made about 10%.

            As for realistic chances of winning that top prize, six combos are as good as 20, but for winning something, probably 40 combos.

            "As for realistic chances of winning that top prize, six combos are as good as 20, but for winning something, probably 40 combos."

            That might be true as I've followed premium members who posted 50 lines for 6/49 or similar games and won nothing.  Perhaps they didn't have a strategy other than just playing 50 randomly picked lines.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
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              Kentucky
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              Posted: September 16, 2015, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

              "As for realistic chances of winning that top prize, six combos are as good as 20, but for winning something, probably 40 combos."

              That might be true as I've followed premium members who posted 50 lines for 6/49 or similar games and won nothing.  Perhaps they didn't have a strategy other than just playing 50 randomly picked lines.

              The odds of winning something in CL is 1 in 57 so there is no guarantee even with 50 predictions. All or Nothing is 1 in 4.5 and six combos should produce at least on hit. The problem is that one hit will probably be the price of the ticket.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: September 16, 2015, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                The odds of winning something in CL is 1 in 57 so there is no guarantee even with 50 predictions. All or Nothing is 1 in 4.5 and six combos should produce at least on hit. The problem is that one hit will probably be the price of the ticket.

                I know but I've seen them go quite a few draws with no hits making me wonder if their overall average is worst than the calculated one.   I've seen the same thing with Rolling Cash5 but I think that's because only match3 and higher are counted, the match2 $1 wins are ignored.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
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                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                  Posted: September 16, 2015, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

                  I know but I've seen them go quite a few draws with no hits making me wonder if their overall average is worst than the calculated one.   I've seen the same thing with Rolling Cash5 but I think that's because only match3 and higher are counted, the match2 $1 wins are ignored.

                  I usually play one draw a day (sometimes more) and trust me, it is very possible to go several draws without even a $2 win, despite what the overall odds are. This month I'm doing pretty good. I've played $40, and won back $48.

                  CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                  A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: September 16, 2015, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

                    I know but I've seen them go quite a few draws with no hits making me wonder if their overall average is worst than the calculated one.   I've seen the same thing with Rolling Cash5 but I think that's because only match3 and higher are counted, the match2 $1 wins are ignored.

                    I stopped predicting RC5 because the $1 wins didn't count, but I can understand why it's setup that way; to level the playing field because some states pay with a free ticket.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: September 17, 2015, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

                      I stopped predicting RC5 because the $1 wins didn't count, but I can understand why it's setup that way; to level the playing field because some states pay with a free ticket.

                      Ever since I matched 5/6 in OCL my prediction stats have been going down.  I occasionally get a few picks for Georgia and Texas AON games from the LP RNG to post just to keep my overall monthly stats looking decent.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
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                        psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                        Posted: September 17, 2015, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

                        Puke     You shulda>woulda>coulda> won $185 million PowerBall jackpot on 9-16-15 but,U didn't !!!

                        NOW:

                              U got $208 million for 9-19-15

                                                  Party

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          March 24, 2001
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                          Posted: September 17, 2015, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

                          Puke     You shulda>woulda>coulda> won $185 million PowerBall jackpot on 9-16-15 but,U didn't !!!

                          NOW:

                                U got $208 million for 9-19-15

                                                    Party

                          I shuldan't>wouldan't>couldan't> won $185 million PowerBall jackpot on 9-16-15 'cause I didn't play!!!

                          But I may play this Saturday!!!Wink

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: September 18, 2015, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

                            The odds of winning something in CL is 1 in 57 so there is no guarantee even with 50 predictions. All or Nothing is 1 in 4.5 and six combos should produce at least on hit. The problem is that one hit will probably be the price of the ticket.

                            "All or Nothing is 1 in 4.5 and six combos should produce at least on hit. The problem is that one hit will probably be the price of the ticket."

                            There aren't many games that have odds of 1:4.5 of winning the price of their ticket, I would like to see more games like that rather than pushing large jackpots.  Rolling Cash5 with overall odds of 1:9 of winning a dollar is the only thing close to that in this area.  I think if Classic Lotto paid even $5 for a match3, it would be a more popular game ranking it with PB and MM in popularity.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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                              Posted: September 18, 2015, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

                              The first single ticket billion dollar powerball winner should wear a hat to their press conference that says "make america great again" and say:

                               

                              "Before i open it up to questions i just want to say......and i don't mean to brag but......im very very rich!"   

                               

                              "Now.....any questions?"Big Grin

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