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Predictions from a sequence

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 1 year ago by dr san.

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Posted: November 23, 2015, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

I have the following sequence of numbers. 

342313341243242424213332323133324032424344231334442442324424232342233432421221133133222330424342443222440313123333222132322223332342344342103423232243234132313442414213332222431233234123232323322422314411342442213444444231332213233333442240224132132324124243224234413223124343313141443424232332124421243433341331122213432313333422412334343243240333444232322223423412342323233242433222333243323444432244342344433323331341422434242333333131332432242432343333231423422432333420213313342133233234242443342333321323242433433232334431023134124122333313243322102244330331132334333223433233424122212243221143333343214332240122314433424232442232224342334222224123414133430211323422342332142323213343213144343242334140213210333334343322224114122131422332314411233312233222231233324241342233224133434114432114332

The numbers represent a sequence of numbered events (0-4)

Does anyone have suggestions on predicting the next event.  Are there any programs or formulas that attempt this?

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    Posted: November 24, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

    Need more info to answer your program or formula question.

    Did you generate a sequence by (let's just say) took a certain number string from pi or e, then converted to hex, added your birthday, then

    reduced the series into a spreadsheet quartile like this =QUARTILE(cell:cell,{0,1,2,3,4}), maybe by wrapping all that in a =MATCH(cell,value)?

    This question gets asked routinely.  Not sure what the point is.

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      Lincoln, California
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      Posted: November 24, 2015, 9:21 am - IP Logged

      Need more info to answer your program or formula question.

      Did you generate a sequence by (let's just say) took a certain number string from pi or e, then converted to hex, added your birthday, then

      reduced the series into a spreadsheet quartile like this =QUARTILE(cell:cell,{0,1,2,3,4}), maybe by wrapping all that in a =MATCH(cell,value)?

      This question gets asked routinely.  Not sure what the point is.

      The sequence was created by creating 2 groups of numbers.  The R Group contains from 6 to 8 numbers depending on the Type of the last Draw (Single, Double, Double Double, Triple of Quadruple)  The sequence is the count of numbers in the Draw from the R Group. 

      I was looking for some place to start to analyze the sequence, Theory?, Formulas? Excel Workout?

      I will try your suggestions in Excel.

      Thanks for the suggestion.

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        Lincoln, California
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        Posted: November 24, 2015, 11:59 am - IP Logged

        In Excel, I have tracked Games out or Skips converted them to Frequencies and created large Charts that compared events side by side over past game blocks.  I have looked at Followers, Skip Trends, etc.  all of these processes produce a sequence of numbers that I can perform the same calculation for all over again.  I don't know where the iterations end, probably never.  It always proves that the Draws are Random.  Every time I think the most frequent event will occur next it rarely does.  My hope is that reducing the number of Event Types (in this case 5) gives me a 1 in 5 Chance of being right about the next event.

        In the case of the sequence I asked about I know the following: 

        There are 2700 Events in the sequence Each Event Count and Percentage are as follows:

        (0  45 2%) (1 299 11%) (2 792 29%) (3 1035 38%) (4 530 20%)

        The sequence is a fixed process that follows a random event so It is a parallel random sequence.  I know that parallel lines never intersect.  I look at my Sequence as a "Poly line".  In Autocad a Polyline is a line that has multiple vertexes and variable line widths between vertexes.  It is cool to look at but is no better at stimulating me to make the right selection than looking at the numbers.  Neither is very effective.  It just gets more complicated. 

        The sequence has many cousins.  The Game type S-D-DD-T-Q is a parallel sequence.  The number picked in the draw order, the sum of numbers.....................endless.

        So my question was is there any way to ignore the method of creation and simply forecast from the sequence itself. I know the answer is No.  Parallel line do not intersect.  I am looking for some Math that I do not know or some other method. 

        It might be interesting to get a group of LP members to look at some form any sequence (created by anyone, not just mine) and make a prediction, pool all of the predictions and see if the group can get it right.

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          Posted: November 24, 2015, 6:33 pm - IP Logged

          In Excel, I have tracked Games out or Skips converted them to Frequencies and created large Charts that compared events side by side over past game blocks.  I have looked at Followers, Skip Trends, etc.  all of these processes produce a sequence of numbers that I can perform the same calculation for all over again.  I don't know where the iterations end, probably never.  It always proves that the Draws are Random.  Every time I think the most frequent event will occur next it rarely does.  My hope is that reducing the number of Event Types (in this case 5) gives me a 1 in 5 Chance of being right about the next event.

          In the case of the sequence I asked about I know the following: 

          There are 2700 Events in the sequence Each Event Count and Percentage are as follows:

          (0  45 2%) (1 299 11%) (2 792 29%) (3 1035 38%) (4 530 20%)

          The sequence is a fixed process that follows a random event so It is a parallel random sequence.  I know that parallel lines never intersect.  I look at my Sequence as a "Poly line".  In Autocad a Polyline is a line that has multiple vertexes and variable line widths between vertexes.  It is cool to look at but is no better at stimulating me to make the right selection than looking at the numbers.  Neither is very effective.  It just gets more complicated. 

          The sequence has many cousins.  The Game type S-D-DD-T-Q is a parallel sequence.  The number picked in the draw order, the sum of numbers.....................endless.

          So my question was is there any way to ignore the method of creation and simply forecast from the sequence itself. I know the answer is No.  Parallel line do not intersect.  I am looking for some Math that I do not know or some other method. 

          It might be interesting to get a group of LP members to look at some form any sequence (created by anyone, not just mine) and make a prediction, pool all of the predictions and see if the group can get it right.

          A good read on 'Prediction of recurrent events by Marc Fredette'  explains the concept of 'univariate to multivariate' in a random setting. If you subscribe to randomness(I  infer from your text), then your assumption or line of reason should focus on that.

            Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
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            Posted: November 25, 2015, 11:40 am - IP Logged

            A good read on 'Prediction of recurrent events by Marc Fredette'  explains the concept of 'univariate to multivariate' in a random setting. If you subscribe to randomness(I  infer from your text), then your assumption or line of reason should focus on that.

            If anyone is interested, I found this book online.  I'm not sure I'd call it a "good read".  It is Fredette's doctoral thesis and as dry as you would expect.

            https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/1142/mfredett2004.pdf?sequence=1

            "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

            ~Robert A. Heinlein

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              Posted: November 25, 2015, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

              If anyone is interested, I found this book online.  I'm not sure I'd call it a "good read".  It is Fredette's doctoral thesis and as dry as you would expect.

              https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/1142/mfredett2004.pdf?sequence=1

              Is a very good read, it may seem abstract, hence  dry to some. It may seem abstract because the approach to  most of the topics is more philosophical.

                MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

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                Posted: November 25, 2015, 8:08 pm - IP Logged

                I have the following sequence of numbers. 

                342313341243242424213332323133324032424344231334442442324424232342233432421221133133222330424342443222440313123333222132322223332342344342103423232243234132313442414213332222431233234123232323322422314411342442213444444231332213233333442240224132132324124243224234413223124343313141443424232332124421243433341331122213432313333422412334343243240333444232322223423412342323233242433222333243323444432244342344433323331341422434242333333131332432242432343333231423422432333420213313342133233234242443342333321323242433433232334431023134124122333313243322102244330331132334333223433233424122212243221143333343214332240122314433424232442232224342334222224123414133430211323422342332142323213343213144343242334140213210333334343322224114122131422332314411233312233222231233324241342233224133434114432114332

                The numbers represent a sequence of numbered events (0-4)

                Does anyone have suggestions on predicting the next event.  Are there any programs or formulas that attempt this?

                There is a function in Excel called "Forecast". I've tested it on Keno with some luck.

                  Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
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                  Posted: November 26, 2015, 7:54 am - IP Logged

                  Basically, this problem comes down to a choice between 2 and 3.  If you choose both of those you will be right about 2/3 of the time.  So your choice becomes:

                  2, 3, neither 2 nor 3.

                  You might want to include 4 with the 2 and 3 -- with a median of 2 it hits almost as often and the larger group will hit 85% of the time, but at the cost of adding in an extra choice.

                  "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                  ~Robert A. Heinlein

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                    Posted: November 26, 2015, 8:00 am - IP Logged

                    The sequence was created by creating 2 groups of numbers.  The R Group contains from 6 to 8 numbers depending on the Type of the last Draw (Single, Double, Double Double, Triple of Quadruple)  The sequence is the count of numbers in the Draw from the R Group. 

                    I was looking for some place to start to analyze the sequence, Theory?, Formulas? Excel Workout?

                    I will try your suggestions in Excel.

                    Thanks for the suggestion.

                    342313341243242424213332323133324032424344231334442442324424232342233432421221133133222330424342443222440313123333222132322223332342344342103423232243234132313442414213332222431233234123232323322422314411342442213444444231332213233333442240224132132324124243224234413223124343313141443424232332124421243433341331122213432313333422412334343243240333444232322223423412342323233242433222333243323444432244342344433323331341422434242333333131332432242432343333231423422432333420213313342133233234242443342333321323242433433232334431023134124122333313243322102244330331132334333223433233424122212243221143333343214332240122314433424232442232224342334222224123414133430211323422342332142323213343213144343242334140213210333334343322224114122131422332314411233312233222231233324241342233224133434114432114332

                    The numbers represent a sequence of numbered events (0-4)

                    ----------------

                    I really don't care (sorry), but to kill some time:

                    I am not posting to answer your question, but anyhow I don't follow your explanation.

                    First of all, you seem to be talking about the pick 4 game:

                    Single = 0123

                    Double = 0012

                    Double Double = 0011

                    Triple 0001

                    Quad = 0000

                    There are five  types of numbers so = 0, 1, 2, 3 and  4, that might account (maybe) for these:

                    342313341243242424213332323133324032424344231334442442324424232342233432421221133133222330424342443222440313123333222132322223332342344342103423232243234132313442414213332222431233234123232323322422314411342442213444444231332213233333442240224132132324124243224234413223124343313141443424232332124421243433341331122213432313333422412334343243240333444232322223423412342323233242433222333243323444432244342344433323331341422434242333333131332432242432343333231423422432333420213313342133233234242443342333321323242433433232334431023134124122333313243322102244330331132334333223433233424122212243221143333343214332240122314433424232442232224342334222224123414133430211323422342332142323213343213144343242334140213210333334343322224114122131422332314411233312233222231233324241342233224133434114432114332

                    So of course, some types of pick 4 numbers come out more often than others, when trying to predict maybe that is an important fact and or factor or maybe not, still I don't at all understand your explanation, but never mind that as even if I did I don't want to take the time needed to look into prediction as anyhow I might not be able to do it (correct prediction) anyway.

                    Good Luck!

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                      Posted: November 26, 2015, 8:12 am - IP Logged

                      In Excel, I have tracked Games out or Skips converted them to Frequencies and created large Charts that compared events side by side over past game blocks.  I have looked at Followers, Skip Trends, etc.  all of these processes produce a sequence of numbers that I can perform the same calculation for all over again.  I don't know where the iterations end, probably never.  It always proves that the Draws are Random.  Every time I think the most frequent event will occur next it rarely does.  My hope is that reducing the number of Event Types (in this case 5) gives me a 1 in 5 Chance of being right about the next event.

                      In the case of the sequence I asked about I know the following: 

                      There are 2700 Events in the sequence Each Event Count and Percentage are as follows:

                      (0  45 2%) (1 299 11%) (2 792 29%) (3 1035 38%) (4 530 20%)

                      The sequence is a fixed process that follows a random event so It is a parallel random sequence.  I know that parallel lines never intersect.  I look at my Sequence as a "Poly line".  In Autocad a Polyline is a line that has multiple vertexes and variable line widths between vertexes.  It is cool to look at but is no better at stimulating me to make the right selection than looking at the numbers.  Neither is very effective.  It just gets more complicated. 

                      The sequence has many cousins.  The Game type S-D-DD-T-Q is a parallel sequence.  The number picked in the draw order, the sum of numbers.....................endless.

                      So my question was is there any way to ignore the method of creation and simply forecast from the sequence itself. I know the answer is No.  Parallel line do not intersect.  I am looking for some Math that I do not know or some other method. 

                      It might be interesting to get a group of LP members to look at some form any sequence (created by anyone, not just mine) and make a prediction, pool all of the predictions and see if the group can get it right.

                      "So my question was:  Is there any way to ignore the method of creation and simply forecast from the sequence itself."

                       

                      I do think so, but it might be a little harder to do maybe.

                      But in this case, at least to start with, you need to first study a much longer sequence of those digits-patterns, than maybe you would otherwise.

                      Either of the two ways, it might not be easy and or maybe even possible to do right, but Who knows?

                      Maybe with the "Right prediction logic", prediction logic is what is all about.

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                        Posted: November 26, 2015, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

                        I have the following sequence of numbers. 

                        342313341243242424213332323133324032424344231334442442324424232342233432421221133133222330424342443222440313123333222132322223332342344342103423232243234132313442414213332222431233234123232323322422314411342442213444444231332213233333442240224132132324124243224234413223124343313141443424232332124421243433341331122213432313333422412334343243240333444232322223423412342323233242433222333243323444432244342344433323331341422434242333333131332432242432343333231423422432333420213313342133233234242443342333321323242433433232334431023134124122333313243322102244330331132334333223433233424122212243221143333343214332240122314433424232442232224342334222224123414133430211323422342332142323213343213144343242334140213210333334343322224114122131422332314411233312233222231233324241342233224133434114432114332

                        The numbers represent a sequence of numbered events (0-4)

                        Does anyone have suggestions on predicting the next event.  Are there any programs or formulas that attempt this?

                        OK Allen

                        How bouts "0" ???

                        Eddessa_Knight 

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                          Posted: November 26, 2015, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                          OK Allen

                          How bouts "0" ???

                          Eddessa_Knight 

                          Whatever 0 is and or stands for (represents) it doesn't come out very often as seen on that short sequence, so maybe it is not a very likely pattern, but it can still come out next, same as with any other of those patterns.

                          Maybe the 0 = Quad (1111).

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                            bgonçalves
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                            Posted: November 27, 2015, 5:22 am - IP Logged

                            Hello Monel. The cracks and quadruple system could also be used in pick6 example
                            12 15 21 31 09 42 = 0,9,1,2,1,5,2,1,3,1,4,2
                              Trinca = 222
                              Quad = 1111
                              It has separate start and end digest
                              Monel the problem is how to locate the 12 positions?
                              Find the digit triune and quadruple
                            In the above example the formation in 1111 gave the positions = = 3ª5ª 8th 10th
                            Using the five groups? 0000,0011,0001,0012,0123

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                              Posted: November 27, 2015, 7:31 am - IP Logged

                              AllenB

                               

                              If you find something that works let me know.  When working with random data it's always possible to come

                              to a solution that looks more probable than the others.  The most probable will hit more often overall but this

                              does not tell us when.   The problem is further compounded when working with more than one string.   

                               

                              In the above example  " (0  45 2%) (1 299 11%) (2 792 29%) (3 1035 38%) (4 530 20%)." If we add the totals

                              of 2 and 4 we get 49%, so the two combined are greater than 3=38%.  This is how random works.  What we

                              need to know is, "When?"   If we play the most probable then we will hit more often but don't  expect it to hit on

                              que.  The three top values would do very well game to game but then we are faced with too many lines to play. 

                               

                              My solution to this problem was to create a gauntlet of filters setting each one so that it covered the top 2 or 3

                              best values.  Again this suffers the same effect if too many filters are required to reach a play budget.

                               

                              Keep in mind that 0,1,2 and 4 will show in 62% of the draws and 3 is only expected to show 3.8 out of 10 on average. 

                              0 and 1 can be eliminated as both added together equal 13% or around 1.3 out of 10 games on average.   These 2 are

                              small enough to exclude without any real loss but lets say that you have to make a selection from 5 strings.  The 13%*5

                              then becomes relevant in at least one of the 5 strings, which one, I don't have a clue.   Sufficiently random is not random

                              but as it's name implies it's close enough to derail our best efforts much of the time. 

                               

                              Momentum seems to do well in prediction and one thing I have found is that a value, be it a filter, number, digit etc..

                              The #1 best time to play a value is right after it's self.  A skip of zero shows more that any other skip.

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

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