Wow. What a great way to start the new year off. So will it roll over again  ? And how many times will it roll over.

Opps. Sorry. Happy  New Year 

Same to you!

Am thinking if Mega Millions is won tomorrow night, the Powerball will jump up even faster.

should be most curious to see whar both pots are headed

 hmmm. Ordinarily I would be ecstatic about a jackpot (CV) this high. However, can someone please post the ticket sales for the last 7 days to get the figures for the last two drawings?

I'm trying to figure out how the JP can have a $45 million jump from 255 to 300, but then fall back to a $34 million jump when the JP is higher. 

At this point in the game, each increase is always bigger than the previous jump. $9 million less equates to a big drop in sales from the week before.

Probably a lot of Christmas gift tickets in the previous drawing.

Can you imagine buying a Powerball/Mega Millions ticket for someone for Christmas and it winning?

EEks!  If I ever bought tickets for someone else, I'd make sure to play the same numbers for myself.

 If that Christmas gift was a winner then you would have a friend for life.

 How nice and quiet the previous winners have been. Very little news about them in the media. They have learned from the past. One exception is Eddie Tipton.

 Enjoy the New Year everybody!!

Excellent idea.  I'm not sure I would remember to do it though.

Happy New Years!

I never have and never will give lottery tickets as a gift.  I also do not want to receive them as a gift!

Where would you guys go on vacation at?

Somewhere in California. Along the Coast or into the Sierra Mountain range.

 I think I'd rent a private island for a month once a year

I tell my wife that we would be buying a private island in the Caribbean.

Some place warm for several months, just disappear, maybe Tahiti. 

Happy New Year LP members.  And of course, Good Luck for the next two major games!

Is Powerball starting to get air time on tv? Has everyone started jumping in the game?

On the one hand I really appreciate the appeal of that idea, but I'm not sure I'd want to deal with the inconveniences. Unless you're planning on a short camping trip you'll need an adequate power supply, a suitable source/supply of water, and you'll need to replenish food on a regular basis. They certainly aren't insurmountable problems, and the idea is obviously predicated on having plenty of money to pay the bills, but they're hassles you need to deal with.

Perhaps the real kicker is that there's a very good chance your private island won't really be as private as you may think. In many places all beaches are either owned by the public or there's an easement allowing the public to use the beach. The upside of having your not-really-private beach on an island is that  you won't have people just strolling by. The downside is that  anybody who  shows up will come by boat instead of walking, and that gives them easy access to the best beach on your island, which may be the one you prefer to use.

I'm inclined to think a fairly large piece of property on a larger, developed island is the better choice. It doesn't have as much romantic appeal when you're planning, but I think it's much more practical to really have. I've also considered that a boat might be an even better (or additional) choice, since it doesn't tie you to one place.

My desires are modest. Someone won the CA SuperLotto Sat so it dropped down to the starting amount of 7 mil.  I went ahead and bought one ticket and what do you know someone won again last night. 7 mil translate into about 2.2 mil take home. Nothing to sniff at.  I wd be more than happy with a modest home and a new car.  If I won PB or Mega, I would buy a nicer house (but not too much nicer - property taxes are horrible), a truck and a car, take a vacation, and then set up charities.

_{taxes are high}

Who cares about property taxes when you've won Powerball/Mega Millions at the estimated prize amount they are advertised at right now.

You must already live in a mansion if you're worried about property taxes after winning millions.

Ohio has very high property  taxes. If I won I would buy a nice luxury home and could pay the property taxes off in advance for the next 30 years and still go on vacation, set up a charity, buy brand new cars and still have the majority of my millions left.

That's the difference between you and me -- I dont want to unnecessarily give money to the gov so they can waste it. I could find much better uses for it charity wise.  I love how some people always have a bug up their butts about how others spend their imaginary winnings.  smh

Yes, saw it on the local and national news today.  Good luck and Happy New Year!

Yes, saw it on the local and national news today.  I think my favorites are from Manhattan showing hordes of people buying tickets, though hadn't seen that yet.  Good Luck and Happy New Year!

OH YES.  Get a duplicate while you're at it.

Oh, at least a month.  In the endlessly sunny season, preferred. 

But would there be wifi for electronically reporting such states of bliss to the Lottery Post forum?

It won't be won until EVERY possible number combination is sold, bank on it.

Happy New Year to all!

same to you too,Dpoly1

lets hope 2016 will be a lucky year 4 all of us

'cept for the whiners and trolls

Just for fun- PB alternate ending-

The jp keeps rolling over until it gets to with a couple of thousand dollars of the much anticipated $1B mark and then because 'an official' is about to sing like a canary the MUSL pulls the plug on PB.

$400+ million if no winner Saturday.......

Not sure if they are projecting high on purpose (self-fulfilling prophecy) or if these are legitimate expectations. Given that, I would now estimate 3-4 weeks to reach the big B.

I want to go to key west

It would be great to see the funds split up more often and Maryland and Washington DC included, hey lottery post Maryland wants a slice of the pie too

I think Maryland has had a good piece of that pie.  If you look back at Todd's original story you will see in the top 25 jackpots Maryland took spots #1, #8 and #21. 

Happy New Year!

In spite of all the enthusiasm for it, the real record set by this lottery sequence is the lowest ever observed expectation values for jackpots exceeding 300 million annuity.    For this drawing it is a very, very, very, very modest 0.51, meaning it's not even close to a "good bet."

Before the massive worsening of odds in both MM and Powerball, expectation values were often in the range of 0.9 (close to Casino odds) and even from time to time exceeded 1.00.

Calculating sales expectations from the current jackpot, as currently defined by the lottery for the $334M annuity jackpot of roughly $65M representing 32.5M tickets sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in this table below:

From these figures we see that the highest probability, 89%, is that 32.5 million tickets will not produce the dream jackpot for any purchaser.

The shift to low expectation values with ever higher odds against winning, by the way, seems not to be working as intended.   In both MM and Powerball, sales are way down.

It is highly probable that the jackpot will roll again this time, and likely that it will roll several times.   It is possible that the expectation value will go higher, but it's nowhere near a "good bet" right now.  The fact is that now it will generally take more than 20 draws, ten weeks (or more) in order for a Powerball jackpot to enjoy "good bet" status.    Any jackpot doing so would need to set a new record.

As we talk about one billion, we can expect, given current trends, for the Powerball odds to rise again and again until they are one in a billion and roll over for years and yeras while people continue to lose interest in the game.

I hope that this is not too much of a downer for anyone enjoying a fantasy, but if you buy a ticket - and I confess I bought one - that's what you're paying for, a fantasy and nothing else.

That would suck!

lol.....I think the days of "fair bet" jackpots are over.....

Advertised annuity would be roughly $1.5 billion before the after-tax cash could be considered "fair bet"

There was a paper written several years ago, forget the author, but he derived a constant for rollover jackpot games that determines the optimal prize/sales which maximizes the expectation for all players. For the new PB it is roughly when 1.1 billion tickets have been sold, or a cash jackpot around $745 million— far beneath the threshold for being considered a fair bet after taxes, so one may conclude that you shouldn't play PB ever.

I don't see why not. Islands are cheap, especially if there's nothing on it. Countries who own the islands are eager to sell because you have to pay them property taxes for land that would otherwise just be sitting idle. 

There are a lot of islands out there that already have resort-type accommodations and villas on them, so you can rent out the villas when you're not using the island and generate income. And no, you don't have to share the island with anyone. It's your private property just like any other residential land purchase. 

Sometimes, the owning country will practically give away an island in exchange for you building it up for tourism  (think Necker island), but those are few and far between, and unless you want it solely for investment, you just avoid those.

"Advertised annuity would be roughly $1.5 billion before the after-tax cash could be considered "fair bet""

With odds of about 290 million to 1 against, and a $2 ticket price you'd need to net $580 million for an expectation value of 1.0. Figuring federal taxes and a mid-range state tax of 5% the advertised jackpot would have to be about $1.715 billion. I believe that's entirely possible under the current matrix, but there's a major catch.

The increases are significantly smaller than they used to be, but at some amount over 350 or 400 we'll see some very large sales. I'm guessing that we need a rollover at something between 600 and 700 to each a billion in one shot. If it gets to the 1.7 range I'm figuring there will be at least 500 million tickets sold, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was much higher. In that case there's a very good chance that there will be multiple winners, and the expectation value of 1.0 didn't really exist.

I'd rather have the money for myself, but if you want to buy a ticket with the winning numbers I won't hold a grudge. Well, maybe if they're the same numbers I played.

Thanks for the calculations, at 10% probability of being hit I can see the jackpot roll a long time.

Somebody referenced some calculations on how many winners to expect at a given time, but couldn't remember the link.

I think this might be it, though it's based on the old PB structure:

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-when-math-says-you-should-start-to-care-about-powerball-2013-9?IR=T

I end up on Vladi Private Islands quite often, can spend hours scoping ut the most attractive islands I can't buy. Though I have found some crazy price developments, like one island sold in 2008 for 3M$ now going for 60M$ 

To be clear, my calculations of expectation values are pre-tax.

I'm not an anarchist; I therefore believe in paying taxes.   

It's amazing how many people despise paying taxes when mentioning their lottery fantasies here.    When I hear this stuff, I kind of wonder how secure their new wealth would be if they lived in a place like, say, Somalia or Syria or Iraq, where tax collections, such as they are, are more easy to avoid assuming you can hire your own militia.   Personally, I'd rather just pay taxes than hire my own militia to protect my wealth.

I love my country and my system of government, and it's one of the things for which I enjoy paying.

Watch this space...

All of that is ok for those that wish to decide whether PB, or MM, or ANY lottery jackpot game is a "good" bet. Frankly, none of them are a good bet. But it really doesn't matter. Because none of us, (well, me anyway), don't plunk down our money based on a good bet or a bad bet. We place our bets because we hope to win a jackpot.

I would quite happy to win second prize. It would set up my retirement nicely. Yeah I would still have to work a few more years, but, the future would look a lot brighter.

And....someone, somewhere, IS going to win sometime.

I'd really, really like to pay taxes on an income of 300 million dollars, because it would mean I had $160ish million to keep for myself.

The way I view expectation value is that ignoring the smaller prizes, everybody but the winner(s) will have risked and lost the full $2 price of the ticket, and the winner(s) will lose 40 to 50% of the prize to taxes. Over the long term players should to spend $584 million (292 million tickets @ $2 each) to win one jackpot, and that jackpot will return about $200 million before taxes and $100 to $120 million after taxes. In order for the players to get back the $584 they've spent the advertised jackpot therefore needs to be about 5 to 5.8 times as big.

KY, How did you come up with $160 million and you live in NY? I live in California and my State does not tax lottery winnings but I only get $131,000,000.00 after all, deductions and taxes are paid. I can go into detail if you would like me too. 

 I am hoping that our fearless leader Todd Northrop updates this Power Ball jackpot from $334,000,000.00 to a higher number.

 Good Luck everyone!!

I too am really surprised I haven't seen a bump. But then, I have yet to see this make our local news and I haven't seen any lines anywhere for tickets. 

Not that I'm complaining. Fewer people in a frenzy, the better my chances I won't have to share with anyone.

I hope it continues to roll and set a new Power ball record jackpot.

I'm one of those who have griped about taxes, but it's not about PAYING them, it's paying SO MUCH, esp. on a JP win where it's classified as "ordinary income" and taxed at the highest rate.  As has been brought up in here at least a hundred times before, other countries have lotteries that are tax-free.  If you opt for the C/V of tonight's PB JP, the federal taxes you pay wouldn't run the U.S. govt. for ten minutes.  Be that as it may, the worst thing is that out of that huge sum, only a tiny amount would trickle down to the area where you live.    Most of that money would be wasted while getting there, too.  I could do more good and help more people with a quarter of that amount than the feds could with all of it. 

Back in the 80's, the taxpayer funded NEA shelled out something like 20 grand to the artist who took a crucifix and put it in a jar of urine and called it "art".  $20k could have been better spent at the local military museum, probably paying their utility bills and other expenses for a couple of years.  It's the govt.'s use of funds for things such as that which infuriate me.

Since I don't live in Somalia, Syria or Iraq, I don't have to worry about it.  In fact, if I lived in one of those countries, I doubt I'd know anything about U.S. lotteries and instead of worrying about paying taxes on the win, would be more concerned about keeping my family safe or getting gasoline for my Toyota pickup and ammo for the .50 caliber mounted in back and where the infidels were I wanted to kill.   Not sure why you brought that up, but it was a silly example and had nothing to do with paying taxes HERE.

I also love my country and while I think our system of govt. is good, it's certainly not evolved as our Founding Fathers intended.  I do not enjoy paying taxes, but I understand they're necessary.  What I do despise is paying for the bloated, inefficient bureaucracies with many multiple levels of employees that make more and do less than the levels below them and those govt. agencies that can hand down regulations and mandates that have the force of law.

im already planning what income i will have  based on the investment of the cash payment.  all i can say is WOOOOT oh wait still the small detail of winning

I don't have a problem paying federal taxes, but it chaps my rear that the state takes more.

They're already making millions per year on a voluntary tax that we lottery players pay.  I don't even have kids, and I'm giving major funding to the schools.  I think that's enough and they should not double tax me if I should ever win.

Well, Mike, you say you love your country but wished it evolved like the Founding Fathers intended.   Personally, I wouldn't want to live in the world they envisioned, where lots of human beings were treated like farm animals, for one thing among many others.    The people who founded the country had huge disagreements among themselves, and I'm sure they didn't regard themselves as infallible and thus were careful to include provisions in their constitution that would correct their self acknowledged imperfections, as was specifically stated in the Federalist papers, specifically and unambiguously in Federalist #85.

Federalist #85

But I have no doubt that you still would prefer living in the 18th century; and I'm happy that even though you won't win the lottery, that if you did, your first purchase would be horses and a real wonderful plantation with porcelain seats in the outhouses, just like the ones James Madison had. 

I'm quite sure too, while you don't live in Iraq, you feel nothing at all for the fact that tax dollars were used to blow the lives of human beings living there to little bits, because of your ex-Governor had something to work out with his Daddy.   I assume the children there who had their arms or heads blown off were just casualties of your Christian love.

Some of us feel otherwise about all of that; we actually value human beings in reality, and not in the mindless chanting in churches about love and peace until we can get outside the door to shoot the neighbors we just said we loved full of holes.  We feel that when simpletons blow things apart with no plan to build things to replace them, they are making the lives of everyone on the planet more dangerous.

And you're right, the entire lottery sales for the entire history of the lottery wouldn't pay very much for the two trillion good time party we had between 2000 and 2008 blowing up "infidels."

Basically, you and I may live in the same country - and I question whether you really love it although I'm sure you wave the flag a lot - and I definitely see that you do, in fact, want to form your own militia of one with 50 calibre ammunition on a Toyota truck.

It's a lucky thing you won't win the lottery, and you won't.   You wouldn't last three weeks before someone with the same mentality blew you away in a gun battle, probably taking down lots of innocent people in the cross fire.

This is the disturbing thing about the lottery at the end of the day; anyone can win it; even fools and nothing is worse than a fool with power.

As for the people who work in Government, many of them are highly educated and hard working.   Somehow I doubt that you are actually their equal in working for this country or for the world.    I've had lots of interactions with government employees, my children's teachers for instance, who love their country and work hard for it in ways that you are clearly incapable of imagining.

You don't know jack squat about me and you've just written the most ignorant piece of crap I've read this week. 

Give it time, though, there's still the rest of the day.

"did you come up with $160 million"

Easy. I said an income of $300 million. I didn't say anything about a fictitious prize of $300 million.

"Fewer people in a frenzy"

Even the people who post here haven't managed to get past page 4 yet.

Rent? Why rent when u can buy your own island with that kind of money.

if you have to ask, you wouldn't understand

A $57 million mark up just for their development? What exactly was the development? Hotels? A mini-theme park? Diamond mining?

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/private-island-type#eng/sales/int/private-island-type

These are much more reasonable. Buy a Cay from the Bahamas and save yourself tens of millions by building exactly what you want.

for those interested in living like castaways

The Powerball win is already mine so you all can stop playing or continue playing adding to the jackpot.  I'll invite all LP players to a big party to celebrate.  Todd can be the master of ceremonies.

Holy crap. What the f are you talking about. You just wrote the biggest pile of tripe in all of LP. 50 call in the back of a Toyota truck here?

YOU ARE AN IDIOT.

Since you are still in your parent'so basement why don't you go tell your mama she's calling you for dinner.

lol....the advantage of owning real estate is that you can list it for whatever you want....doesn't mean someone will pay it.

I have been looking at rentals in my area and I inquired about a house that is over 30 years old and property value assessed at only a couple hundred Ks. I couldn't believe the realtor is asking $3K a month to rent this place. It doesn't even have a garage. She claimed it has a market value of half a million. Would you believe people are actually stupid enough to pay the asking price to rent this place? The reason, apparently, is that it is located in a good school district.

On an unrelated note, I bought my first lottery ticket of the year today and won 3x my money (2x profit). No Powerball for me :)

I want it to roll to a billion dollars

Uh oh, looks like birthday numbers were drawn tonight... I don't know anything at this point, but my guess is a winner.  Winning numbers are 5-6-15-29-42, and the Powerball is 10.

Yep, my birthday is on the 42nd of the month

You may be onto something....looks like actual annuity @ $359,300,000 and cash @ $219,900,000.....so with sales higher than expected and birthday numbers....

We'll see

Edit:

Rolling :-)

Whoa...$400 million. 

Rolling rolling rolling

Rawhide!

And now the insanity shall really start.

Heeeeerrre we go....!  Ha 

I didn't play it but I will watch the rollovers with some amusement.

Interesting, the 5-15-29 also came up in our Wild Card game (Idaho).

let it roll till it hits $600 million then let ME win it all

I didn't make it clear, the only development was the price as far as I can tell. There was a small house on it but I think it was there before.

Bahamas has the added benefit of tax savings. Good thinking there!

Nice to see it rolling again.

No winner. Time to buy a ticket with powerplay. What do you think it will roll to now?

so long as I don't have to share it !! 

Okay, you've got to give me the links to these properties, because I have GOT to see this. Did you check? Maybe there is a diamond mine on the property.

Something's got to be going on...I hope. Because there are just too many private islands out there for sale to warrant this price jump for no apparent reason...again, I hope.

I looked it up again and it is now up for 3M$ at one broker and the broker who had it as "60M$" now has it as "price upon request". so I'm guessing they tried to flush a whale or wanted to disparage development as luxury condos or whatever.

Well that's definitely true. When I see ridiculous mark ups on properties for no apparent reason than the seller's greed, I know I'd personally shy away from doing any business with that person. I wouldn't be inclined to negotiate the price down, I'd simply look for something else. Making a great profit is good business. But when a mark up is to the point where it borders on insanity? I see that as so far north of greed that I question how ethical the seller is and what other unethical things might happen during the sale.

Now, higher than the norm prices for terrible properties because it's in a fantastic school system? That I get. I've seen enough obsessive parents do financially ridiculous things to get their kids into the best schools they can, so those prices in a high demand school district don't surprise me at all. 

Watched an episode of House Hunters some years back and saw these people willing to spend over a million dollars for a 3 bedroom 1 bath tiny, unbelievably dated house just because of the school district. I thought they must be nuts. But I keep seeing stuff like that happen so that's what they're willing to pay. They aren't paying for the property, they're solely paying for the location.

Hmm, now that's just weird. Could one price the cost for the land and the other the cost with it developed by a builder? Still don't know what they'd be building on a small island for $57 million but at least that would make more sense. To simultaneously have two different prices for the same property with no variation of what's being offered on the property would be insane. Well whatever, let's stick with a Bahamian cay or if you don't mind the cold, Canada always has a lot of islands for sale at really cheap prices. Might not have the same tax benefits, but at those prices it might even out.