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# Do you think Powerball will go to a billion dollars?

Topic closed. 22 replies. Last post 1 year ago by aquar.

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Do you think Powerball will go to a billion dollars?

 Yes [ 7 ] [26.92%] No [ 18 ] [69.23%] Undecided [ 1 ] [3.85%] Total Valid Votes [ 26 ] Discarded Votes [ 1 ]
Greenville, SC
United States
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November 4, 2015
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

I think Powerball will be at \$1 billion by the 20th. What say you? I'm currently in the "Show Me" state. Except for an Illnois lotto ticket for tonight's draw, I'm dead flat. I have to reload on EVERYTHING! Good luck in the new year!

May the balls bounce in your favor!

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
3502 Posts
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

There's a decent chance. It's still a low probability, but it's significantly more likely that it was when the current run started.

It will take sales of about another 700 million tickets to get there. To make it really simple, let's imagine we have sales of 50, 100, 200, and 350 million tickets for the next 4 drawings, resulting in jackpots of 350, 400, 600, and 1 billion. As a very rough estimate that would mean selling 16%, 28%, 48%, and 66% of possible combinations for those drawings. That would mean about an 86% chance of rolling from 350 to 400. If that happens there's about a 72% chance of rolling from 400 to 600. Then a 52% chance of rolling from 600 to \$1 billion. Multiply them together and the chance of reaching \$1 billion is .86 * .72 * .52, or 32%, or about 1 in 3. If we get there, there's about a 1 in 3 chance it would roll again, to well over \$1 billion. That means perhaps a 1 in 10 chance this one could go to \$1.5 billion or more. That means it's most likely not to happen, but I'd say a 1 in 3 chance of reaching a billion sounds pretty <snip> (edit: jeez, what a nanny state; damm) good.

Those are very rough numbers, and I think it's more likely we'd see a different progression. Selling twice as many tickets produces more than twice as many unused combinations, so if we get modest sales and it takes 5 or 6 drawings to reach \$1 billion there's a somewhat lower chance than what I showed above, depending on exactly how many tickets are sold for each drawing. Let's figure there's at least a 25% chance.

As always, the winning numbers that are drawn will have an effect. If 1,2,3,4,5 +6 is drawn there's a 100% chance of a winner even if only a million tickets are sold. Birthday numbers also increase the chance of a winner. We'll only know for sure once it happens.

This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

United States
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October 13, 2015
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 3:26 pm - IP Logged

You make it sound like 100% of the funds brought in by ticket sales go into a JP.  Try more like 70%.  The lottery is a non-profit, but keep in mind it pays salaries to its workers, covers lower-tier prizes, prints slips, maintains equipment and provides incentives for retailers.

Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
United States
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June 29, 2011
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

No,

If it hits the big BIL. then I'll buy 1 line.

I don't even miss playing  PB

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

United States
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October 13, 2015
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

Disregard my  last post - I was thinking \$1/ticket.  Brainfart.  You were probably well conservative to say 700M tickets, as that would be \$1.4B on its own.

* sidenote - using 'B' as an abbreviation for money gets me all giddy.

United States
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November 4, 2011
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

Nope.

Upacreek
United States
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December 8, 2012
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

1 in 3 chance? Hmmm... Interesting

That's not too shabby...

-RC

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

I think Powerball will be at \$1 billion by the 20th. What say you? I'm currently in the "Show Me" state. Except for an Illnois lotto ticket for tonight's draw, I'm dead flat. I have to reload on EVERYTHING! Good luck in the new year!

November 30, 2012

January 13, 2009

February 2, 2015

May 24, 2015

December 8, 2005

And that's just a sample of how many times this subject has been discussed (twice this year). Obviously it's just opinion, but why not offer examples of how it could happen.

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: December 31, 2015, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

"well conservative to say 700M tickets"

With the old matrix about 64 cents from each ticket went to the jackpot prize pool. That's close enough to the cash/annuity ratio that figuring each dollar of advertised annuity required selling one ticket was a really simple way of being fairly close to the real number.  I knew they changed that figure a bit with the new matrix, but I just double checked and it's a bigger change than I thought. Each ticket now contributes about 68 cents towards the jackpot. They sometimes skim a bit for reserves, and figuring 1 ticket = \$1 annuity is still close enough for a ball park figure, but it's definitely a conservative figure. If the reserve fund is already funded so that the full 50% of the ticket price goes to the overall prize pool each ticket sold means \$1.10 for the annuity.

That means reaching an even billion may only require sales of about 636 million tickets. That would also mean that the chances of getting there before there's a winner are a bit better, too.

Nashville,TN
United States
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August 26, 2009
11205 Posts
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 8:05 am - IP Logged

Maybe

Greenville, SC
United States
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November 4, 2015
374 Posts
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 11:03 am - IP Logged

I don't have the time to study. Besides, all of those dates that you posted are well before the new matrix change. Back then, the odds weren't nearly close to 1 in 292 million.

May the balls bounce in your favor!

United States
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October 13, 2015
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

Old odds were 1:175M.  A 67% increase with the change.

What baffles me is the number of PBs is almost double what the number of MBs is in MM (26 vs 15 = 75% higher), yet the JP odds are only slightly higher than MM (1:292M vs 1:259M = 13% higher).  Doesn't seem like the increase in WBs (69 vs 75  = 8.7% higher) would matter as much as it does.

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

Old odds were 1:175M.  A 67% increase with the change.

What baffles me is the number of PBs is almost double what the number of MBs is in MM (26 vs 15 = 75% higher), yet the JP odds are only slightly higher than MM (1:292M vs 1:259M = 13% higher).  Doesn't seem like the increase in WBs (69 vs 75  = 8.7% higher) would matter as much as it does.

Because you only choose 1 power/mega ball the increase in the number of balls has a direct linear effect. If both games had the same number of regular balls then PB odds would be 1.75 times higher instead of 1.13 times as high.

When you're choosing multiple balls from a group, the number of possible combinations isn't even close to being a linear function of the increase in the size of the group.

Here's a table showing the number of combinations as you increase from 5 of 10 to 5 of 22, and 69 to 75. The 10% increase from 10 to 11 increases the number of combinations by 83.3%. A 50% increase (from 10 to 15) results in an increase of 1092%. Then to really screw with your head, the 10% increases from 20 to 22 only increases the number of combinations by 69%, instead of the 83.3% increase from 10 to 11.

 10 252 69 11,238,513 11 462 70 12,103,014 12 792 71 13,019,909 13 1,287 72 13,991,544 14 2,002 73 15,020,334 15 3,003 74 16,108,764 16 4,368 75 17,259,390 17 6,188 18 8,568 19 11,628 20 15,504 21 20,349 22 26,334
NY
United States
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June 22, 2015
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

so 400M wednesday if no one wins - it looks fairly likely

http://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20160102.pdf

United States
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January 7, 2015
538 Posts
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 Posted: January 1, 2016, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

No,

If it hits the big BIL. then I'll buy 1 line.

I don't even miss playing  PB

The only thing I'd like to miss if does hit 1 bil,
is the number of splits the jackpot will take.

There's no way the jackpot will stay in-tact by that point.
That's why it's important that EVERYBODY PLAY, so it gets won NOW