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The "Holy Grail"

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 10 months ago by BobP.

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TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
Brooklyn, NY
United States
Member #169723
October 29, 2015
875 Posts
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Posted: January 23, 2016, 11:01 am - IP Logged

Odds....schmodds

Of course the odds are always against you. That's how the lotteries make their money.

One fact though is if you don't buy a ticket, you will never win. Gotta be in it, to win it!

Timing is everything! Look at the couple from TN that had a 1/3 share in the largest lottery jackpot. The wife called her husband to see if he was going to stop and buy tickets for the drawing. He wasn't going to because he didn't feel well. But, he does stop and buys only 4 tickets (1 to represent each member in his family) and hits the Powerball! Go figure!

The Meatman

“The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

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    Florida
    United States
    Member #126774
    April 16, 2012
    1434 Posts
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    Posted: January 23, 2016, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

    Haven't got a response yet, SM.

    Oh, I thought you understood what that meant, you said you agreed with the assessment. I tried looking at past results, couldn't quite see what he was saying lol. Yeah some digits repeat, but that was in all positions.

      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
      United States
      Member #4924
      June 3, 2004
      5893 Posts
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      Posted: January 23, 2016, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

      Oh, I thought you understood what that meant, you said you agreed with the assessment. I tried looking at past results, couldn't quite see what he was saying lol. Yeah some digits repeat, but that was in all positions.

      I was agreeing with his assessment about the lottery, not being random.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19813 Posts
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        Posted: January 23, 2016, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

        Hi everyone! I’ve been a “student” of using mathematics-based Strategies to play the lottery for close to 10 years now. I’ve tried a few and simulated many, but I’ve never found what I consider to be the “Holy Grail”. At this point I’m thinking that either I haven’t stumbled onto it yet, or my expectations relative to the “Holy Grail” are not achievable.

        The “Holy Grail” I refer to is this: identify a Strategy that hits at a rate significantly greater than that you would expect based on the number of combinations the Strategy generates.

        For example (using a typical Pick 3 game):

        Strategy A says “select 1 at random from all Triples”. The Strategy hits at a rate of 1% ( 10/1000), and when it hits, your odds of winning are 1/10. Overall odds are 1/1000 (obviously).

        Strategy B says “select 1 at random from the 10 that this super-duper mysterious Strategy generates”. Based on historical data, the Strategy hits at a rate of 3%, and when it hits, your odds of winning are 1/10. Overall odds are 1/333, so Strategy B yields odds significantly better than 1/1000.

        So the question on the table is this: is Strategy B even possible? Anyone can come up with simple (or complicated) Strategies that significantly reduce the pool of numbers, but if the DOC of the Strategy HAS to go down by proportionally the same amount, the odds are still 1/1000, so isn’t it a moot point?

        No matter how small the pool of numbers it generated, no Strategy I’ve ever looked at showed an improvement in odds. Please set me straight if I’m missing something . . .

        If there was a "Holy Grail" for winning any lottery game finding one for the pick3 game would be the easiest since there are only one thousand possible combonations, that's probably why a correct pick  pays half of what it cost to play all those combinations.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
          Dump Water Florida
          United States
          Member #380
          June 5, 2002
          3102 Posts
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          Posted: January 24, 2016, 9:51 am - IP Logged

          the odds can not change no matter what you do.

          A strategy improves the odds in some draws balanced by making it impossible to win in others.

           

          Two logically inconsistent statements

          The second being factually incorrect

           

          Describe a Powerball/Pick-3/...  strategy that makes it "impossible to win". 

          Simple 6/49 game, my strategy is to improve my odds in some draws in exchange for making it impossible to win a jackpot in the others.

          My strategy example is to not include any of the winning numbers from the previous draw changing the game from 6/49 to 6/43.  I will be correct roughly 45% of the time and when my strategy is working my odds drop from 1 in 13.9 million to 1 in 6 million. 

          When I am wrong and one or more of the numbers from the previous appear and because I am not playing them a jackpot is impossible.  If two appear I can not win a five number prize and so on.

          BobP