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Powerball reaching record jackpots due to the odds just got harder?

Topic closed. 22 replies. Last post 10 months ago by KY Floyd.

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December 29, 2010
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Posted: January 17, 2016, 4:37 am - IP Logged

Didn't it used to be about 1 in 190 million odds and now it's 1 in 292 million odds to win the jackpot? So anyone with 292 million bucks could have won 1.5 billion right? Also, how does one claim a jackpot using a "trust"? What is that to begin with? I know my state one can claim anonymously but I'm curious if one happened to live in a state where you must accept the jackpot in public, how do you get around it using a trust instead?

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    Posted: January 17, 2016, 10:00 am - IP Logged

    1) Each ticket costs $2, not $1

    2) The advertised jackpot is what you would get in total over 29 years, the cash prize is much smaller

    3) Income taxes take a substantial cut

    4) The jackpot is shared if there are multiple winners, it was split 3 ways on the 1/13 drawing

     

    Bottom line, anyone spending $600M to buy every combination would have lost about $400M if their ticket had been one of the 3 winners.

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
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      Posted: January 17, 2016, 10:01 am - IP Logged

      <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

      Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

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        NY
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        October 16, 2005
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        Posted: January 17, 2016, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

        If you could somehow manage to buy every possible combination you'd win every possible prize. Besides the 5+1 winner you'd have all 25 5+0 winners. You'd have 320 4+1 winners, and at the end of the prize list you'd have 7,625,297 0+1 winners. All told you'd have 11,751,237 winning tickets worth just under $93.469 million, plus the jackpot winning ticket.  In the case of a jackpot worth $1.586 billion and a 3-way split the jackpot ticket would be worth about $328 million in cash, bringing your total winnings to about $421 million.

        Your actual winnings if you could have done it for the record would actually be significantly bigger. By spending $584.4 million buying tickets you'd have added nearly $200 million to the cash value of the jackpot, increasing the 1/3 share of the jackpot by about $65 million. That would  mean you'd have won back about $485 million, for a loss of about $100 million. Except that buying all of the combinations would have made yours the 4th jackpot winning ticket. That would have resulted in actual winnings of about $388 million, for a loss of $200 million.

        That last bit is a hugely important factor. If the jackpot is big enough that there's any chance at all of  turning a profit you have to figure that there will probably be at least 1 winner from the regular players, and that the jackpot will be split at least 2 ways. In this case that would have resulted in winning almost $683 million, for an after tax profit of a bit less than $60 million. That's a very nice profit, but the high risk of a 3rd or 4th winner makes it a bet that I wouldn't expect anyone to take.

        Maybe there's still an occasional state lottery where it would be a good bet if you could overcome the logistics and buy every combination, but short of a much bigger jackpot with sales that stabilize at the current maximum PB and MM will never be a good bet.

          sirbrad's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
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          Posted: January 17, 2016, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

          Not to mention that you would never have time to fill out all those bet slips, nor would the clerks get them all printed out in time. You would need to be printing tickets 24/7 and they take a lot of time. Plus you get machine jams also. Your eyes would be buggy after about 1,000 slips with millions to go. Even a huge team of people would probably not get it done. You would also need big boxes of those bet slips and to carry all those tickets, and people waiting in line at the store are gonna be like WTF....It is easy to come up with "theories" like that but when you sit down and actually think about it, which most don't; you see just how impossible it would be. Also someone rich enough with that kind of money would not be that foolish to spend it and risk a loss with multiple winners. They are probably rich for a reason and would never spend that kind of money just to win back a fw hundred million. Maybe for $10 Billion they would try it but still doubtful as they would run out of time. People tried this before for much smaller jackpots and ran out of time.

            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
            Indiana
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            Posted: January 17, 2016, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

            I'm fairly certain we will see $1B jackpots more often now that the odds are 1 in 292 million and the price being $2. Basically the $500-600M jackpots are the new $200-300M jackpots and the $1B+ jackpots are the new $300-400M jackpots. lol

            Gonna win.Big Smile

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              London
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              Posted: January 17, 2016, 7:58 pm - IP Logged

              I'm fairly certain we will see $1B jackpots more often now that the odds are 1 in 292 million and the price being $2. Basically the $500-600M jackpots are the new $200-300M jackpots and the $1B+ jackpots are the new $300-400M jackpots. lol

              I bet the "I only play when it's a $200m+ jackpot" people are slightly annoyed, haha.

              I know I would be if I lived in the USA!

              2016 Won/Lost

              EuroMillions / Spent: £22 / Won £0 / Total -£22

              UK Lotto / Spent: £4 / Won: £0 / Total: -£4

              2016 Total: -£24

              Jan: -£22 Feb: £0 ~ Mar: £0 ~ April: £0 ~ May: £0 ~ June: £0 ~ July: £2

               

              EuroMillions = £2 Line / Played: x11 [old price] 

              EuroMillions = £2.50 Line / Played: x0

              UK Lotto = £2 Line / Played x2

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                Arizona
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                Posted: January 17, 2016, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

                With the current odds, we can expect to see $600M jackpots once or twice a year, and $1B jackpots two or three times a decade.

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                  Posted: January 18, 2016, 1:50 am - IP Logged

                  With the current odds, we can expect to see $600M jackpots once or twice a year, and $1B jackpots two or three times a decade.

                  I know, and I wish they'd back-date the slips to give us the older odds.
                  The doggone game is hard enough to win, without the new odds.

                  To: The USA Lottery Administration,

                  Why?

                    sirbrad's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                    PA
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                    Posted: January 18, 2016, 6:31 am - IP Logged

                    I think the billion dollar ones will be much more frequent than that now. Unless the last one was a fluke.

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                      NY
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                      Posted: January 18, 2016, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                      I think the billion dollar ones will be much more frequent than that now. Unless the last one was a fluke.

                      Then you clearly don't have any idea about the actual probability of a billion dollar jackpot.

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                        Arizona
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                        Posted: January 18, 2016, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

                        I think the billion dollar ones will be much more frequent than that now. Unless the last one was a fluke.

                        Yes, it was a fluke. Based on actual ticket sales, there was only about a 1-in-8 chance of the jackpot rolling those last two times. It happened this time, but it's about seven times more likely that a $500M+ jackpot won't make it to a billion.

                          travelintrucker's avatar - morph
                          Greenville, SC
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                          Posted: January 18, 2016, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

                          If MM extended the mega balls up to 18, they would have roughly the same odds as Powerball.

                          May the balls bounce in your favor!

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                            Alpharetta, GA
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                            Posted: January 18, 2016, 10:16 pm - IP Logged

                            If MM extended the mega balls up to 18, they would have roughly the same odds as Powerball.

                            Don't go giving the MUSL any ideas!  Lol! ;)

                            just kidding. I really don't care either way.  the run up to this last jackpot was exiting to watch.

                              sirbrad's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                              PA
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                              Posted: January 19, 2016, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

                              Then you clearly don't have any idea about the actual probability of a billion dollar jackpot.

                              As hard as it is to win it seems logical and more "probable"  now than before. Can you prove otherwise? I didn't think so. Whatever it does it does but with the higher odds it would make sense. I would not be surprised if it was back up there by March-April.