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quiz pick-4 daily game odds

Topic closed. 48 replies. Last post 10 months ago by RL-RANDOMLOGIC.

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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Posted: January 22, 2016, 12:00 am - IP Logged

I started playing pick-4 a while back and while thinking about the odds I came to the conclusion

that it's not as easy as one might think.  Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct

position, what are the odds for doing this.  One might think matching 3 digits would be 1 in 1000

but this is not true unless you only select 3 of the 4 digits places to play.

 

Math odds quiz.  Straight only

What are the odds of matching 1 digit  to the correct position with 4 selections?

What are the odds of matching 2 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

What are the odds of matching 3 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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    Posted: January 22, 2016, 4:11 am - IP Logged

    I started playing pick-4 a while back and while thinking about the odds I came to the conclusion

    that it's not as easy as one might think.  Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct

    position, what are the odds for doing this.  One might think matching 3 digits would be 1 in 1000

    but this is not true unless you only select 3 of the 4 digits places to play.

     

    Math odds quiz.  Straight only

    What are the odds of matching 1 digit  to the correct position with 4 selections?

    What are the odds of matching 2 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

    What are the odds of matching 3 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

    RL

    I don't know anything whatsoever about Math, but:

    If you have 1 position and 10 possible digits the odds of getting 1 particular digit right might be 1/10 or 0.1

    If you have 1 position and 3 digits then the odds of getting 3 right might be 3/10 or 0.3

    if you have 2 positions and 3 digits to get right maybe 0.3 X 2 = 0.6 as you now have 2 positions and that might be you double the chances (?).

    With 3 positions and the same 3 digits now you might have triple the chances, by the way this turns out to be box or any order and not straight so: 0.3 X 3 = 0.9

    With 4 positions maybe: 0.3 X 4 = 1.2 chance or 4 times the chance as with only 1 position box (any-order not straight).

    1 position = 30 % chance, 4 positions = 120% Chance, Any-Order or Box and Not Straight?

    I am probably wrong! (?).

    ------------------------

    1 Digit and 1 position = 1/10

    1 Digits 2 positions = 2/10

    1 Digit and 3 positions = 3/10

    1 Digit and 4 positions = 4/10

    So maybe, each one of the 3 digits might have a 4/10 % chance for all 4 positions, but I am not sure if straight or any-order, but probably Box (Any-Order).

    Make it 10 positions and the chance for 1 digit right on any one position of the 10 positions  might be 100%

    I am not sure about any of that!

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      Posted: January 22, 2016, 4:35 am - IP Logged

      I don't know anything whatsoever about Math, but:

      If you have 1 position and 10 possible digits the odds of getting 1 particular digit right might be 1/10 or 0.1

      If you have 1 position and 3 digits then the odds of getting 3 right might be 3/10 or 0.3

      if you have 2 positions and 3 digits to get right maybe 0.3 X 2 = 0.6 as you now have 2 positions and that might be you double the chances (?).

      With 3 positions and the same 3 digits now you might have triple the chances, by the way this turns out to be box or any order and not straight so: 0.3 X 3 = 0.9

      With 4 positions maybe: 0.3 X 4 = 1.2 chance or 4 times the chance as with only 1 position box (any-order not straight).

      1 position = 30 % chance, 4 positions = 120% Chance, Any-Order or Box and Not Straight?

      I am probably wrong! (?).

      ------------------------

      1 Digit and 1 position = 1/10

      1 Digits 2 positions = 2/10

      1 Digit and 3 positions = 3/10

      1 Digit and 4 positions = 4/10

      So maybe, each one of the 3 digits might have a 4/10 % chance for all 4 positions, but I am not sure if straight or any-order, but probably Box (Any-Order).

      Make it 10 positions and the chance for 1 digit right on any one position of the 10 positions  might be 100%

      I am not sure about any of that!

      So maybe, each one of the 3 digits might have a 4/10 % chance for all 4 positions, but I am not sure if straight or any-order, but probably Box (Any-Order).

      ----------------

      But because you want all 3 digits right on ANY 4 positions (Boxed?) at the same time maybe:

      0.4 /3 = 0.13333333333333333 to infinity for all 3 digits on the 4 positions maybe any-order or box, but I am not sure.

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        Posted: January 22, 2016, 4:48 am - IP Logged

        The odds of 1 digit right for 1 position will always be 1/10 or 0.1 for each straight position, but if you have 4 positions and you want the digit right on all 4 positions then maybe 1/40 chance.

        If you want the digit right on any-one of the 4 positions 1 time or more times as chance might have it, but at least 1 time then maybe 4/10 or 0.4

        ------------

        2 Digits right on 2 particular straight positions maybe (1/10) / 2 = 0.05

        --------------

        3 Digits right on 3 particular straight positions maybe (1/10)/3 = 0.0333 to infinity.

        -------------

        Maybe you really mean box for all 4 positions and not straight as you said.

        If so, see my other answer before this one: (Maybe) = 0.1333

        I wonder if I am right or wrong?

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          Posted: January 22, 2016, 5:16 am - IP Logged

          I don't know anything whatsoever about Math, but:

          If you have 1 position and 10 possible digits the odds of getting 1 particular digit right might be 1/10 or 0.1

          If you have 1 position and 3 digits then the odds of getting 3 right might be 3/10 or 0.3

          if you have 2 positions and 3 digits to get right maybe 0.3 X 2 = 0.6 as you now have 2 positions and that might be you double the chances (?).

          With 3 positions and the same 3 digits now you might have triple the chances, by the way this turns out to be box or any order and not straight so: 0.3 X 3 = 0.9

          With 4 positions maybe: 0.3 X 4 = 1.2 chance or 4 times the chance as with only 1 position box (any-order not straight).

          1 position = 30 % chance, 4 positions = 120% Chance, Any-Order or Box and Not Straight?

          I am probably wrong! (?).

          ------------------------

          1 Digit and 1 position = 1/10

          1 Digits 2 positions = 2/10

          1 Digit and 3 positions = 3/10

          1 Digit and 4 positions = 4/10

          So maybe, each one of the 3 digits might have a 4/10 % chance for all 4 positions, but I am not sure if straight or any-order, but probably Box (Any-Order).

          Make it 10 positions and the chance for 1 digit right on any one position of the 10 positions  might be 100%

          I am not sure about any of that!

          Sorry my mistake, this is not possible:

          "If you have 1 position and 3 digits then the odds of getting 3 right might be 3/10 or 0.3"

          If you have 1 position you can't get 3 digits right on it.

          -------

          Forget about this  also:

          "if you have 2 positions and 3 digits to get right maybe 0.3 X 2 = 0.6 as you now have 2 positions and that might be you double the chances (?).:

          -------------

          Forget about that whole post it is probably all wrong!

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            bgonçalves
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            Posted: January 22, 2016, 5:27 am - IP Logged

            We also have the question of repetition of a draw the last digit to the next
            Draw, but not in the same position example
            478
            823
            He repeated the digit 8 but not same position
              In pick 4 we also have the twins digits = 00-99
            That may be carried forward in pick4 in 6 positions
            1,2 1,4 2,3 2,4 3,4 1,3
            The other two digits lack seen in the vertical position of each frequency and Statistics

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              Posted: January 22, 2016, 5:41 am - IP Logged

              I started playing pick-4 a while back and while thinking about the odds I came to the conclusion

              that it's not as easy as one might think.  Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct

              position, what are the odds for doing this.  One might think matching 3 digits would be 1 in 1000

              but this is not true unless you only select 3 of the 4 digits places to play.

               

              Math odds quiz.  Straight only

              What are the odds of matching 1 digit  to the correct position with 4 selections?

              What are the odds of matching 2 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

              What are the odds of matching 3 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

              RL

              I was wrong, this is way beyond me!

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                Posted: January 22, 2016, 5:52 am - IP Logged

                I was wrong, this is way beyond me!

                "Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct position, what are the odds for doing this."

                Maybe my question would be:

                How many Straight pick 3 numbers are there on a pick 4 game?

                OXXX

                XOXX

                XXOX

                XXXO

                I wonder if that is right?

                If it is then:

                1000 X 4 = 4000 Straight Pick 3 numbers On  A Straight Pick 4 Game.

                So maybe to have 1 particular straight pick 3 right on a straight pick 4 = 1/4000

                So maybe the odds of 3 straight digits right on 4 straight digits =  1/4000

                Am I right or am I wrong again?

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                  Posted: January 22, 2016, 6:03 am - IP Logged

                  "Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct position, what are the odds for doing this."

                  Maybe my question would be:

                  How many Straight pick 3 numbers are there on a pick 4 game?

                  OXXX

                  XOXX

                  XXOX

                  XXXO

                  I wonder if that is right?

                  If it is then:

                  1000 X 4 = 4000 Straight Pick 3 numbers On  A Straight Pick 4 Game.

                  So maybe to have 1 particular straight pick 3 right on a straight pick 4 = 1/4000

                  So maybe the odds of 3 straight digits right on 4 straight digits =  1/4000

                  Am I right or am I wrong again?

                  At my age right now and with as little formal education as I have, doing that took a lot out of me and was very hard, I am not used to thinking too much and mostly now-days, I can't even predict the pick 3 boxed any more as I used to.

                  I just no longer have the energy and the free time that I need.

                  It is a good thing that when I want to, I just don't give up, if I did, I would have never broken the boxed pick 3 game as I did so many years ago in so very many ways and How many people have done that? Educated or not?

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                    Posted: January 22, 2016, 6:23 am - IP Logged

                    Even if it was a pick 3 game, getting 1 straight pick 3 number right out of 1000 pick 3 numbers with only 1 straight pick 3 number is very hard to do, if it wasn't hard, Would there still be pick 3 games?

                    It is not impossible, people have done it even with only 1 straight pick 3 number, but not very often.

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                      Posted: January 22, 2016, 7:02 am - IP Logged

                      Let's say that we start with 4 positions.  Each position has 1 in 10 odds for selecting the correct digit.

                      If we hit 3 digits in the correct positions and miss one then what are the odds of doing so.   Remember

                      that we don't know which 3 are correct until after the drawing.  We have 4 possible outcomes.

                      A+B+C

                      A+B+D

                      A+C+D

                      B+C+D

                       

                      A______    B______    C______    D_______

                       

                      Hint.  We get 4 choices to hit 3 correct, the problem is further complicated by the fact that any 1 of the 4 can

                      be the one that is missed.  Each position has odds of 1 in 10. 

                       

                      Mind twister.

                       

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: January 22, 2016, 7:17 am - IP Logged

                        Teaser.

                        The odds for hitting a pick-3 straight are 1 in 1000, so the odds for hitting 3 of 4 in a pick-4 should be less than 1 in 1000.

                        True or false.

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
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                          Posted: January 22, 2016, 7:24 am - IP Logged

                          Even if it was a pick 3 game, getting 1 straight pick 3 number right out of 1000 pick 3 numbers with only 1 straight pick 3 number is very hard to do, if it wasn't hard, Would there still be pick 3 games?

                          It is not impossible, people have done it even with only 1 straight pick 3 number, but not very often.

                          In around 18 attempts I hit 3ea 3 of 4 digit straights playing less than 5 lines or less with a minimum

                          of 2 lines.

                          To evaluate my system I needed to know the odds for hitting 3 correct positional digits out of 4.  The

                          odds for a pick-4 straight are 1 in 10K.  My first thought was that I could expect to hit 3 positional out

                          of 4 around 1 in 1000 plays.

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                            Posted: January 22, 2016, 7:38 am - IP Logged

                            The solution is simple.

                            RL

                            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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                              Posted: January 22, 2016, 7:48 am - IP Logged

                              I started playing pick-4 a while back and while thinking about the odds I came to the conclusion

                              that it's not as easy as one might think.  Lets say that we match 3 of the 4 digits to the correct

                              position, what are the odds for doing this.  One might think matching 3 digits would be 1 in 1000

                              but this is not true unless you only select 3 of the 4 digits places to play.

                               

                              Math odds quiz.  Straight only

                              What are the odds of matching 1 digit  to the correct position with 4 selections?

                              What are the odds of matching 2 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

                              What are the odds of matching 3 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?

                              RL

                              What are the odds of matching 1 digit  to the correct position with 4 selections?  10% * 4  40%

                              What are the odds of matching 2 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?    1% * 3    3%

                              What are the odds of matching 3 digits to the correct position with 4 selections?     .01% *2  .02%