|Posted: January 23, 2016, 4:38 pm - IP Logged|
I did mention straights only just above the odds questions. I am new to the daily games and as such a bit
behind in my math for these games. When I first considered the odds I made estimates without working
them out, turns out, my estimates were way off. I built a program and was surprised to see that the odds
for matching 3 positional digits in a pick-4 game was only 1 in 276.87. Before this I thought I was really doing
well. The wife then brought up the method we use to select out digits. I am still trying to come up with the
probabilities / odds for the steps.
We use a Same/change chart and my steps program to select digits. There are 3 steps for each of the 4 digit
positions for a total of 12 values that have to be set. We are averaging 9 to 11 of the 12 steps game to game
but I am having a hard time figuring out the odds. The steps values selected are converted to digits so IMHO
I should get a better sense of how I am doing by calculating the odds for the steps. Hitting 11 out of 12 steps
seems to be doing better than the odds for a 3 positional hit. The steps program converts the digits into a
3 digit code.
The three digit code is a follows.
Step-1 breaks the digits into 3 groups, 1=(012), 2=(3456) and step-3=(789)
Step-2 is odd or even 1=odd 2=even
Step-3 is 1 = low and 2=high.
codes 112 and 321 are not used.
Step-1 sets the group to use. Step-2 says it will be odd or even and step-3 takes the lower or highest remaining value.
There are still 10 total choices for each digit selected so the overall odds are are the same but I find it's much easier to
select the correct digit by analyzing the codes 1 step at a time.
Here is another problem I am working to solve. What are the odds for hitting 9, 10 11 etc of the 12 step values needed
in a pick-4 game? This is straights only because I am working on the digits by position. If I hit 11 of the 12 I will only
match 3 positional digits but steps wise I had 91.6% correct. I want to calculate the expected cost and number of plays
to hit a straight estimated on my test plays.
I also want to figure out is how much advantage if any I am gaining from using the steps vs picking the digits from a pool
of 0 to 9. Pick-4 is a hit-miss game, a 3 of 4 don't count.
Test play data.
I have played 18 games and 74 lines total. My average for 2 positional digit hits is better than 1 to 1 overall and in the
18 games played I have had 3ea lines with 3 positional hits hitting 11 of the 12 steps. My average for the 3 positional
hits is 1 in 24.7.
From this data I should be able to come up with a good estimate of how long I can expect to play and the cost of winning
a p-4 straight.
Here is a scan of one of the 11 of 12 step plays. You can see that I missed the 4th digit by one step value. Based on
the steps this play came closer than a 3 of 4 hit. In the 4 position I managed to hit step-1 with odds of 1 in 3 and step-2
with odds of 1 in 2. If looking only at the digits, I hit 3 of 4 for 75% but steps wise I hit 91.6% What are the odds for
hitting 9, 10 11 etc.. of the 12 steps? Remember that step-1 has odds of 1 in 3 and step-2 and step-3 are 1 in 2.