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To strategize or not to strategize? That is the question

Topic closed. 66 replies. Last post 9 months ago by elios311.

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Madison, WI
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Posted: February 15, 2016, 9:34 am - IP Logged

How do you not understand the odds improvement is based on the strategy proving correct?

When you make any choice that results in the field being reduced and that choice turns out to be correct the odds of winning are improved.

If you filter down to one line and all those filter choices are correct, you then must win the jackpot.  It simply does not matter if that lines stands at 1 in a billion, when the filter choices are correct and the resulting lines are put into play you win no matter what the odds say.

I'm getting tired of playing this glass half full, glass half empty game, see ya in another thread.

BobP

Bang Head

So you're saying if you successfully filter out the numbers that aren't picked, your odds are improved.

I can agree with that statement.

The problem that I see, however, is that when you combine the odds of successfully filtering out the numbers that aren't picked with the odds of picking the correct combination of numbers that remain after the filter, you end up with the same odds as you had to start with.

Of course, if you believe that past draws affect future draws, or that some other force, like the calendar or something affects the draws, then it would make sense to believe that you could improve your odds with filters or other mechanisms. There are some of us who haven't been convinced by any evidence to believe this though.

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    Slovenia
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    Posted: February 15, 2016, 10:55 am - IP Logged

    Then how do we know the difference between our odds were improved vs we were lucky?

    It makes sense to me that if some balls were heavier, you should filter those out and your odds will be improved. 

    But filtering out equally likely balls then saying they weren't equally likely because I got it right is confirmation bias.

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      Posted: February 15, 2016, 11:26 am - IP Logged

      Haha bob, 

      how do you all like to filter your numbers?

      Also a point I would like to make is, it is to your disadvantage to play quick picks vs. picking your own random numbers. The lottery has in place a system that is known to create duplicate tickets since it carries no memory. If your odds are terrible anyway why not be more unique in your terrible bet? Hurray!

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        Slovenia
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        Posted: February 15, 2016, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

        Haha bob, 

        how do you all like to filter your numbers?

        Also a point I would like to make is, it is to your disadvantage to play quick picks vs. picking your own random numbers. The lottery has in place a system that is known to create duplicate tickets since it carries no memory. If your odds are terrible anyway why not be more unique in your terrible bet? Hurray!

        You don't solve the problem by picking yourself becase just like QP you don't have the knowledge of which combinations have already been sold.

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          Dump Water Florida
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          Posted: February 16, 2016, 2:25 am - IP Logged

          So you're saying if you successfully filter out the numbers that aren't picked, your odds are improved.

          I can agree with that statement.

          The problem that I see, however, is that when you combine the odds of successfully filtering out the numbers that aren't picked with the odds of picking the correct combination of numbers that remain after the filter, you end up with the same odds as you had to start with.

          Of course, if you believe that past draws affect future draws, or that some other force, like the calendar or something affects the draws, then it would make sense to believe that you could improve your odds with filters or other mechanisms. There are some of us who haven't been convinced by any evidence to believe this though.

          While you certainly can filter or drop numbers from the field there is rarely a valid reason to do so as all numbers are equal in not being a measure of anything, a 4 is not worth less then a 5. 

          The way it works is to start with all the combinations, the jackpot is in there somewhere, right?

          Now there are some valid reasons to select say 2/4, 3/3, 4/2 Odd/Even Low/High combinations versus 1/5, 0/6, 6/0, 5/1 until they are way past due. 

          Moving on, we can filter for the number of consecutive numbers, width of line, sum of the line, last digit, was in the last draw, decades, prime numbers, whatever suits your fancy. 

          Most choices range from a large population fairly likely to smaller population long shots, in ten filters it is my experience one, two or none long shots will come in.  When the choice is between the larger population that is drawn roughly every other draw versus one drawn one time in one hundred draws, that's the way to go, though there is also little harm and some potential benefit in including a few long shots that are way past due.

          With good software it is possible to filter down to a handful of combinations and after the draw the software shows you what filter choices would have allowed for a jackpot in x number of lines. 

          BobP

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            Posted: February 16, 2016, 7:03 am - IP Logged
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              Madison, WI
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              Posted: February 16, 2016, 11:06 am - IP Logged

              While you certainly can filter or drop numbers from the field there is rarely a valid reason to do so as all numbers are equal in not being a measure of anything, a 4 is not worth less then a 5. 

              The way it works is to start with all the combinations, the jackpot is in there somewhere, right?

              Now there are some valid reasons to select say 2/4, 3/3, 4/2 Odd/Even Low/High combinations versus 1/5, 0/6, 6/0, 5/1 until they are way past due. 

              Moving on, we can filter for the number of consecutive numbers, width of line, sum of the line, last digit, was in the last draw, decades, prime numbers, whatever suits your fancy. 

              Most choices range from a large population fairly likely to smaller population long shots, in ten filters it is my experience one, two or none long shots will come in.  When the choice is between the larger population that is drawn roughly every other draw versus one drawn one time in one hundred draws, that's the way to go, though there is also little harm and some potential benefit in including a few long shots that are way past due.

              With good software it is possible to filter down to a handful of combinations and after the draw the software shows you what filter choices would have allowed for a jackpot in x number of lines. 

              BobP

              Can you explain what the valid reasons are to select and filter the way you are describing?

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                Dump Water Florida
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                Posted: February 16, 2016, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

                Can you explain what the valid reasons are to select and filter the way you are describing?

                Probability

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: February 17, 2016, 12:04 am - IP Logged

                  Can you explain what the valid reasons are to select and filter the way you are describing?

                  Most gambling is based on conditions set by a bettor; making bets like pass line for Craps, even for Roulette, banker for Baccarat. favorite sports team etc. With lottery games, players can set a condition the pick-3 drawing will have mostly even number and the odds are much lower "if the conditions are met". With jackpot games with a huge matrix, there are just too many combination so more filters are necessary.

                  The number of filters and which type depends on how many combos a player wants to use. The odds against the formed combos are exactly the same as any other like number of combos, but favor the wager when conditions are met.

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                    Slovenia
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                    Posted: February 17, 2016, 5:52 am - IP Logged

                    Most gambling is based on conditions set by a bettor; making bets like pass line for Craps, even for Roulette, banker for Baccarat. favorite sports team etc. With lottery games, players can set a condition the pick-3 drawing will have mostly even number and the odds are much lower "if the conditions are met". With jackpot games with a huge matrix, there are just too many combination so more filters are necessary.

                    The number of filters and which type depends on how many combos a player wants to use. The odds against the formed combos are exactly the same as any other like number of combos, but favor the wager when conditions are met.

                    But it is also a gamble that conditions will be met. 

                    You increased the odds of a win when conditions were met, but you in turn reduced the odds that your conditions will be met by adding stringent criteria. 

                    For example; I bet on the dice-roll that the number 5 will come up. The odds are 1/6. But 5 is only one of the three odd numbers on the dice. So my conditions are that an odd number must come up and when that happens my odds are 1/3.  But since the odds of an odd number being drawn in the first place are 1/2 or 50%, the overall odds still are: 1/3 x 1/2 = 1/6. (You multiply the odds of meeting conditions with the odds of a win when conditions are met)

                    So the odds were unchanged for us before the dice-roll has taken place. And we can only strategize or select/buy numbers before it takes place. And at that time our odds are still 1/6.

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                      Posted: February 25, 2016, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                      Elios, I do agree that conditions have to be met but what other options do you have other than quick picks?

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                        Posted: February 25, 2016, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

                        Elios, I do agree that conditions have to be met but what other options do you have other than quick picks?

                        Are you aware of the SIZE of FONT No Nod you're using here ???  It's too tiny - hard to read without my reading glasses !!!  Cool

                        I had to magnify the screen to 150 % !!!  Hiding Behind Computer

                        Please Use a LARGER FONT !!!  Eek

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                          CT
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                          Posted: February 25, 2016, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

                          "While you certainly can filter or drop numbers from the field there is rarely a valid reason to do so as all numbers are equal in not being a measure of anything, a 4 is not worth less then a 5."

                           

                          If people really believed this you would not play.

                           

                          I personally use charts that I created that track everything.

                          Example is an Even/Odd chart. Its only has 8 rows. Waiting till it doubles on a row gives or correctly

                          selecting the correct row narrows you field numbers down 35 or 20.

                          Filter to either a single or double reduces the numbers again.

                          No Carryover, Carryover are the 2 most popular filters to happen each draw.

                          Luck be with you!!!

                          NOTE: All numbers posted are BOXED and unless otherwise noted.

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                            Posted: February 26, 2016, 3:20 am - IP Logged

                            "While you certainly can filter or drop numbers from the field there is rarely a valid reason to do so as all numbers are equal in not being a measure of anything, a 4 is not worth less then a 5."

                             

                            If people really believed this you would not play.

                             

                            I personally use charts that I created that track everything.

                            Example is an Even/Odd chart. Its only has 8 rows. Waiting till it doubles on a row gives or correctly

                            selecting the correct row narrows you field numbers down 35 or 20.

                            Filter to either a single or double reduces the numbers again.

                            No Carryover, Carryover are the 2 most popular filters to happen each draw.

                            Exactly: There is no need to eliminate numbers as they are eliminated automatically through your filter choices.

                            BobP

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                              Slovenia
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                              Posted: February 26, 2016, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

                              Elios, I do agree that conditions have to be met but what other options do you have other than quick picks?

                              If you're doing it for fun there is nothing wrong with it. But the argument here was about the belief that if you filter out numbers on your excel sheet, the balls in the drawing machine that you filtered out somehow magically become heavier. 

                              If you claim that you're doing it for fun then ok, but then let's be clear about it. I don't take the scenic route to somewhere because it's faster, but because it is scenic. And if you use a lottery system because it is fun then you are not doing it because you are now at an advantage as compared to other players that don't, but because it is fun to do so. 

                              However, you might want to realize that even though systems don't change you odds of winning, they might increase your odds of sharing a jackpot should you win, since if thousands of people use a similar system, someone somewhere might buy the same combination more likely then if you just did a QP. But if the fun of selecting your own number outweighs this disadvantage then go for it. It is actually in my interest as a lottery player that as many of the rest of you buy the same numbers so that I myself have the lowest probability of a share in case I win.