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To strategize or not to strategize? That is the question

Topic closed. 66 replies. Last post 9 months ago by elios311.

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butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
Member #68867
January 1, 2009
1221 Posts
Offline
Posted: February 27, 2016, 12:57 pm - IP Logged
1st of all - The odds of winning are not the same as your chances of winning.
***The odds of winning is a mathematical formula based on the numbers of balls used in a given game.
***The chances of winning depends on a lot of variables, but can be a lot better than your odds of winning.
***
2nd of all - Every Jackpot game has combinations of numbers that come in more often than others.  This I 
***can prove with no problems. -  Just look at any of my post beginning with " Combos & Patterns."
***
3rd of all - The odds on the back of a play slip might not the be the true odds of the game.
***Lets look at the back of a play slip for the IL Power Ball Game.
***Match 5 of 6 + PB = 1 : 292,201,338
***Match 5 of 6         = 1 :   11,688,054  (note:  11,688,054 x 26 PB = 303,889,404)
***Match 4 of 6         = 1 :          36,525
***Match 3 of 6         = 1 :               580
***
***Here are your true odds:
***Match 5 of 6 + PB = 1 : 292,201,338
***Match 5 of 6         = 1 :   11,238,513  (note: 11,238,513 x 26 PB = 292,201,338)
***Match 4 of 6         = 1 :        864,501
***Match 3 of 6         = 1 :          52,394
***
Listed below is my results on the PowerBall with current Matrix of 41 Games To Date.
As these 10 Groups make up 75% of the total drawings to date - who's numbers will you play???? 
I will take my chances with these combinations over any QP any day.
P.S.  I could care less about a half of cup of surgar vs a full cup of surgar or what are the odds…………

Bottom line is that certain combinations come in more often than others - end of discussion - it's a fact……

Lotteries are not truly RANDOM.

POWERBALL GAME - Combinations & Patterns
In this game, I search the games' history for 2 or more of the same numbers that have hit more than once.  I then put these numbers into groups (Grps) listed below.  I have highlighted these numbers (blue for odd groups) & (grey for even groups).  If you see a number highlighted in yellow, it tells me that the number along with 1 other in that line matched 2 of the same numbers in the related group listed to the right under "Related Groups".  If you see a number highlighted in green in the "Grps" column, it tells you that those lines have matched 4 of 5 numbers in those lines listed.  You will note that history has a way of repeating itself - in fact 75.61%in the date frame covered in this game.  Patterns = Everything coming together in a single line within a Group.  How are your picks doing??  You have to admit the numbers in these groups are better than QP's.
Note: Files updated on a periodic basics. 
This file can be viewed/downloaded - Go To: https://app.box.com/s/1y4p62z39nm82qpcj5hb
Search my Blog: Butch2030 Blog         View other games - Go To: http://blogs.lotterypost.com/butch2030/
           DATES INCLUDED  -10/07/15 - 02/24/16  TOTAL # OF DRAWINGS =41
          TOTAL # OF GROUPS (GRPS) -10         TOTAL # OF DRAWINGS IN (GRPS) =31
     Last 15 Group Changes:                           % = TOTAL DRAWINGS IN GRPS / TOTAL # OF DRAWINGS =75.61%
    Frequency of the Power Ball
 
         
    = 4 out of 5       
                  = #'s in related grps  MY POWER BALLPowerNumber of% of
CNTDATE#1#2#3#4#5PBGrps  Related Groups  RATINGSBALL #HitsHits
12015-10-141520293140119          Excellent1049.76%
22015-10-24203156606421            Excellent137.32%
32016-01-0256152942101            Excellent537.32%
42016-02-032628316067231            Excellent637.32%
52016-02-24213164656751            Excellent2037.32%
  *************                          Excellent2137.32%
62015-11-07716255053152            Excellent2537.32%
72015-11-251629535869212            Good224.88%
82015-12-0971016465612            Good924.88%
  *************                          Good1324.88%
92015-11-114263255641835          Good1724.88%
102015-12-02141819326493            Good1824.88%
112015-12-122141930622238          Good1924.88%
122016-02-13715181936203            Fair712.44%
  *************                          Fair812.44%
132015-10-101227294368149          Fair1112.44%
142015-10-3192025476874            Fair1512.44%
152015-12-051327334768134            Fair2212.44%
162016-01-3051216314318410          Fair2312.44%
  *************                          Fair2412.44%
172015-10-21303242565711536        Poor300.00%
182015-12-16910324255653          Poor400.00%
  *************                          Poor1200.00%
192015-11-181740414669669          Poor1400.00%
202016-01-0916193234571365          Poor1600.00%
212016-01-1348192734106            Poor2600.00%
222016-01-232232344069196            Total41100.00%
  *************                         
232015-10-07183040485297           
242016-01-1635152616467           
252016-01-273124052672178         
  *************                         
262016-01-06211476263178           
272016-02-10234050625837       
  *************                         
282015-12-262740445965209           
292016-02-17717272940259146     
  *************                         
302015-12-3012363854612210           
312016-02-20111215165425104         
  *************                         
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    Slovenia
    Member #172924
    February 9, 2016
    46 Posts
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    Posted: February 27, 2016, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

    There is a common misconception that random means equal representation. Random means unpredictable and not equal representation. A drawing machine that would equaly represent all numbers would by definition be non-random as we could predict future results by checking which numbers are underrepresented at the moment.

    The very fact that some combinations came up more than others is the reason the draw can be called random as it is unpredictable.

      eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
      LAS VEGAS
      United States
      Member #47729
      November 22, 2006
      4492 Posts
      Online
      Posted: February 27, 2016, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

      There is a common misconception that random means equal representation. Random means unpredictable and not equal representation. A drawing machine that would equaly represent all numbers would by definition be non-random as we could predict future results by checking which numbers are underrepresented at the moment.

      The very fact that some combinations came up more than others is the reason the draw can be called random as it is unpredictable.

      I Agree!

      Well done elios, exactly why, statically, conventional linear numbers mostly fall in unpredictable manner

      Warm Welcome to the LP Lottery Discussion Forum

       

      Fortes Fortuna Juvat

      Eddessa_Knight with Light Sun Smiley

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        United States
        Member #130795
        July 25, 2012
        80 Posts
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        Posted: February 27, 2016, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

        Butch2030 wrote:
        The odds on the back of a play slip might not the be the true odds of the game.
        ***Lets look at the back of a play slip for the IL Power Ball Game.
        ***Match 5 of 6 + PB = 1 : 292,201,338
        ***Match 5 of 6         = 1 :   11,688,054  (note:  11,688,054 x 26 PB = 303,889,404)
        ***Match 4 of 6         = 1 :          36,525
        ***Match 3 of 6         = 1 :              580
        ***
        ***Here are your true odds:
        ***Match 5 of 6 + PB = 1 : 292,201,338
        ***Match 5 of 6         = 1 :   11,238,513  (note: 11,238,513 x 26 PB = 292,201,338)
        ***Match 4 of 6         = 1 :        864,501
        ***Match 3 of 6         = 1 :          52,394

        The IL odds are correct.

        Of course, no one who matches 5 of 5 and the PB would claim the match 5 of 5 prize instead.

        So there are 25 of 292,201,338 combinations that match 5 of 5 and not the PB.  So the odds are 1 in 292,201,338 / 25 = 1 : 11,688,053.52.  That is indeed how it appears on the powerball.com website.  Apparently IL chooses to round to an integer (11,688,054).

        Similarly, there are COMBIN(5,4)*64*25 = 8000 of 292,201,338 combinations that match 4 of 5 and not 5 of 5 and the PB.  So the odds are 1 in 292,201,338 / 8000 = 1 : 36,525.16725.  That rounds to 36,525.17 (powerball.com) or 36,525 (IL).

        To explain:  there are COMBIN(5,4) = 5 ways for our 5 numbers to match 4 and not 5 of 5 numbers.  That leaves 69 - 5 = 64 choices for the 5th lottery number so that our 5 numbers match 4 and not 5 of any lottery selection.  And again, there are 25 ways to not match the PB.

        Similarly, there are COMBIN(5,3)*COMBIN(64,2)*25 = 504,000 of 292,201,338 combinations that match 3 of 5 and not 4 of 5 and not 5 of 5 and the PB.  So the odds are 1 in 292,201,338 / 504,000 = 1 : 579.76455952381 (approx), which rounds to 579.76 (powerball.com) or 580 (IL).

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          Tulsa
          United States
          Member #172877
          February 7, 2016
          131 Posts
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          Posted: February 27, 2016, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

          On another note, a buddy of mine and myself bought enough quick picks last night to cover most of the mega millions powerball except for two.  I looked through my tickets and his numbers and noticed that 3 and 14 were the only two we did not get out of 25 quick picks.  I texted him that we needed 3, 14 and 15 (I forgot that 14 was the highest).  Being the math teacher that he is, he reminded me that we needed pi.  I went to the store and did a qp for the numbers for 3 and a qp for the 14. Lo and behold, 3, 14 and 15 were 3 of the six numbers in last night's draw.  I won a buck out of all of those tickets with that 14.

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            Kentucky
            United States
            Member #32652
            February 14, 2006
            7295 Posts
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            Posted: February 27, 2016, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

            But it is also a gamble that conditions will be met. 

            You increased the odds of a win when conditions were met, but you in turn reduced the odds that your conditions will be met by adding stringent criteria. 

            For example; I bet on the dice-roll that the number 5 will come up. The odds are 1/6. But 5 is only one of the three odd numbers on the dice. So my conditions are that an odd number must come up and when that happens my odds are 1/3.  But since the odds of an odd number being drawn in the first place are 1/2 or 50%, the overall odds still are: 1/3 x 1/2 = 1/6. (You multiply the odds of meeting conditions with the odds of a win when conditions are met)

            So the odds were unchanged for us before the dice-roll has taken place. And we can only strategize or select/buy numbers before it takes place. And at that time our odds are still 1/6.

            "You increased the odds of a win when conditions were met, but you in turn reduced the odds that your conditions will be met by adding stringent criteria."

            That's why I said "Most gambling is based on conditions set by a bettor".  Setting conditions does not change the odds against winning, but they can enhance the winnings when the conditions are met. It's like winning a $5 on a pick-3 straight number in KY compared to making the same bet in Ohio; the odds against are still 999 to 1 in either state, but the KY player collects $3000 while the Ohio player collects $2500.

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              Slovenia
              Member #172924
              February 9, 2016
              46 Posts
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              Posted: February 28, 2016, 10:20 am - IP Logged

              "You increased the odds of a win when conditions were met, but you in turn reduced the odds that your conditions will be met by adding stringent criteria."

              That's why I said "Most gambling is based on conditions set by a bettor".  Setting conditions does not change the odds against winning, but they can enhance the winnings when the conditions are met. It's like winning a $5 on a pick-3 straight number in KY compared to making the same bet in Ohio; the odds against are still 999 to 1 in either state, but the KY player collects $3000 while the Ohio player collects $2500.

              If you are talking about strategies like buying unpopular numbers or buying tickets at locations where rules are slightly different so the payout is higher, then I agree. I for example always pick numbers that other players avoid. That way, whenever I win in the lowest prize tier, in the majority of cases, I get above average payout because less people picked those unwanted numbers and therefore the prize pool for that tier was divided amongst less players. I get about 2-3€ more than average. And obviously if I win the jackpot, there is less chance for a share.

              So yes, you should have a system to increase payout, but I have a feeling that a lot of people here believe that there is actually a system to also increase the chances of winning and not just the payout amounts (system other than buying more tickets).