Saint Martinville United States Member #155819 May 30, 2014 283 Posts Offline

Posted: February 14, 2016, 11:48 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Wisconsin3054 on February 13, 2016

Your first problem is getting to the point where you could assume that one of the numbers will repeat and assume that it will be a double. If you somehow knew that would happen in advance then yes, you have improved your odds with a filter. However, my view of reality is that the past draws do not affect the future draws, so I am not sticking down 42, 48, 126, or 144 plays in a single draw based on the initial assumption.

What would you consider a good gamble?

Gambling by it's very nature is assumption and risk.

"My view of Reality" The House odds are the stricter reality.

The State government's Pick 3house odds and payouts are worse than bad.

Their game and their rules, but that's the gambler's reality.

The house odds are just like "Aunt Bee's pickles." Like sheriff Andy Taylor says,"we just have to learn to love em' ".

Gamblers start at the top of those odds and attempt to work their way down.

Madison, WI United States Member #172977 February 11, 2016 515 Posts Offline

Posted: February 14, 2016, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on February 14, 2016

What would you consider a good gamble?

Gambling by it's very nature is assumption and risk.

"My view of Reality" The House odds are the stricter reality.

The State government's Pick 3house odds and payouts are worse than bad.

Their game and their rules, but that's the gambler's reality.

The house odds are just like "Aunt Bee's pickles." Like sheriff Andy Taylor says,"we just have to learn to love em' ".

Gamblers start at the top of those odds and attempt to work their way down.

I was just expressing my own opinion. It doesn't take long to realize that many people on here believe that past results do affect future results. Maybe they are right. I was just making clear my belief so as to explain my reason to be sceptical of buying in to your theory. That way you can discount my scepticism if you so choose for the right reason.

I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this is the mathematics forum so I feel like I should be able to counter a theory using math. The math simply doesn't change based on past draws, unless the draws are not actually random. I have yet to see any evidence that they are not random so I'm not going to be sinking a load of cash into a theory based on the draws not being random.

I play because I find it entertaining and exciting to check the numbers each draw with the hope of winning. I'm interested in using mathematics to gain some kind of advantage because I enjoy mathematics, I just haven't been convinced of anything yet.

Saint Martinville United States Member #155819 May 30, 2014 283 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2016, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Wisconsin3054 on February 14, 2016

I was just expressing my own opinion. It doesn't take long to realize that many people on here believe that past results do affect future results. Maybe they are right. I was just making clear my belief so as to explain my reason to be sceptical of buying in to your theory. That way you can discount my scepticism if you so choose for the right reason.

I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this is the mathematics forum so I feel like I should be able to counter a theory using math. The math simply doesn't change based on past draws, unless the draws are not actually random. I have yet to see any evidence that they are not random so I'm not going to be sinking a load of cash into a theory based on the draws not being random.

I play because I find it entertaining and exciting to check the numbers each draw with the hope of winning. I'm interested in using mathematics to gain some kind of advantage because I enjoy mathematics, I just haven't been convinced of anything yet.

Past draw history wasn't part of the demo at all, so it was confusing when mentioned.

Everything up to now has only been about ODDS and how to best use those odds.

The only draw history used here so far has been, sometimes its a double, and sometimes it's a single. 72%,27%,1%

The odds and payouts of Pick 3 are not good, but we have to know what they are. We have to make the best of them, and play within those limits.

Odds are hard facts and they never change regardless of past draws.

We should know were the lines are.

The demo was for whatever happens regardless of out come.

History does tell us it will be Heads or Tails next draw. Both were options in the examples.

Change of subject briefly

That said, using probability after we finish considering all the ODDS. That's a horse of a different color.

Now then, before we bet, Probability evaluations are key.

Madison, WI United States Member #172977 February 11, 2016 515 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2016, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on February 15, 2016

Past draw history wasn't part of the demo at all, so it was confusing when mentioned.

Everything up to now has only been about ODDS and how to best use those odds.

The only draw history used here so far has been, sometimes its a double, and sometimes it's a single. 72%,27%,1%

The odds and payouts of Pick 3 are not good, but we have to know what they are. We have to make the best of them, and play within those limits.

Odds are hard facts and they never change regardless of past draws.

We should know were the lines are.

The demo was for whatever happens regardless of out come.

History does tell us it will be Heads or Tails next draw. Both were options in the examples.

Change of subject briefly

That said, using probability after we finish considering all the ODDS. That's a horse of a different color.

Now then, before we bet, Probability evaluations are key.

Yes, we do go there. Ultimately,we bet on it.

Probability, "is the man behind the curtain".

Past history was part of your demo, because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double. With the assumption, you are basing your pick selection on that last draw, in some kind of attempt to improve your odds for the next draw.

TBH, I'm having kind of a difficult time getting to what your points are in some of your posts, so it is difficult to respond to it all either agreeing or disagreeing.

Saint Martinville United States Member #155819 May 30, 2014 283 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2016, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Wisconsin3054 on February 15, 2016

Past history was part of your demo, because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double. With the assumption, you are basing your pick selection on that last draw, in some kind of attempt to improve your odds for the next draw.

TBH, I'm having kind of a difficult time getting to what your points are in some of your posts, so it is difficult to respond to it all either agreeing or disagreeing.

" because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double."

Oh well, the attempt was to show both sides using 2 demos and present both ways. Will it have a repeat digit next or not?

Will it, or will it not be a double or single? Which one of the options have the best chances to win according to the odds?

The example of 012 was an arbitrary choice. However, the subsequent options/odds shown in the 2 demos were valid. Regardless of any 3 unlike digits.

Wisconsin my friend, thanks again for the math help.

Madison, WI United States Member #172977 February 11, 2016 515 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2016, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Edibs3 on February 15, 2016

" because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double."

Oh well, the attempt was to show both sides using 2 demos and present both ways. Will it have a repeat digit next or not?

Will it, or will it not be a double or single? Which one of the options have the best chances to win according to the odds?

The example of 012 was an arbitrary choice. However, the subsequent options/odds shown in the 2 demos were valid. Regardless of any 3 unlike digits.

Wisconsin my friend, thanks again for the math help.

IMO, your best chances according to the odds are the same no matter what the last draw was. Picking singles is twice as likely to hit as doubles if you are playing box because there are twice as many ways the singles can be arranged. Of course, generally, you win twice as much on the double. So, half the chance, double the reward.

New Mexico United States Member #86099 January 29, 2010 11119 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2016, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Wisconsin3054 on February 15, 2016

IMO, your best chances according to the odds are the same no matter what the last draw was. Picking singles is twice as likely to hit as doubles if you are playing box because there are twice as many ways the singles can be arranged. Of course, generally, you win twice as much on the double. So, half the chance, double the reward.

What's your point? Nothing anyone had spent too much time explaining to you does any good. Why not play the way you prefer instead of all the verbage?!

Madison, WI United States Member #172977 February 11, 2016 515 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2016, 11:46 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by lakerben on February 15, 2016

What's your point? Nothing anyone had spent too much time explaining to you does any good. Why not play the way you prefer instead of all the verbage?!

This is the mathematics forum. The OP was inquiring how the math looks in various circumstances and my point was to try to answer those questions.

Burlington, VT United States Member #173303 February 25, 2016 17 Posts Offline

Posted: February 26, 2016, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

The probability of one of the three digits from the last draw being in the next draw depends on whether the previous draw had 3 distinct digits, 2 distinct digits, or just one (e.g., 555). If it's 555, then the probability the next draw will have a 5 in it is 1-0.9^3=27.1% (a bit less than 3/10 because the result could have 2 5's or 3 5's). 2 distinct digits is more likely, and 3 is even more likely.

Because probability theory only works for future events, let's calculate the probability of the 2nd drawing from now having a digit that is one of the three in the next draw.

prob(repeat given 3 distinct digits)=1-0.7^3=0.657

prob(next draw having 3 distinct digits)=0.72

prob(repeat given 2 distinct digits)=1-0.8^3=0.488

prob(next draw having 2 distinct digits)=0.27

prob(repeat given 1 distinct digit)=1-0.9^3=0.271

prob(next draw having 1 distinct digit)=0.01

prob(next draw having 3 distinct digits AND repeats in the next draw)=0.72*0.657=0.47304

prob(next draw having 2 distinct digits AND repeats in the next draw)=0.27*0.488=0.13176

prob(next draw having 1 distinct digit AND repeats in the next draw)=0.01*0.271=0.00271

Add these together and you get 0.60751.

This is a bit less than 65.7% because the 65.7% is based on the next draw having 3 distinct digits. But it might not, and when that happens, the probability of the 2nd draw having a repeat drops, and so the overall probability of a repeat in the 2nd draw from now is 60.751%.

bgonÃ§alves Brasil Member #92564 June 9, 2010 2122 Posts Offline

Posted: February 27, 2016, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

ok perfect=,27%then73%arenotrepeated.the repetitionof the conditionof adigit in thelastdraw forthe next isbetter not toplayin the same positionpositionare73%/27% The best thingis to playnotrepeatingthe position!!

Madison, WI United States Member #172977 February 11, 2016 515 Posts Offline

Posted: March 1, 2016, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by dr san on February 27, 2016

ok perfect=,27%then73%arenotrepeated.the repetitionof the conditionof adigit in thelastdraw forthe next isbetter not toplayin the same positionpositionare73%/27% The best thingis to playnotrepeatingthe position!!

Eh.. I dont go that far with it. The fact is that the chance of a repeat is the same as the chance of predicting the result. When you look at repeats, you are effectively "picking" the same number as the last draw for the next draw. Your chance of getting at least one number in the correct position is 27.1% with either the same numbers or new numbers. The only way the odds are much different is if you are trying to predict the repeat before the first of the two draws.