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How often P3 digit repeats on top next draw?

Topic closed. 36 replies. Last post 9 months ago by dr san.

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Saint Martinville
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Posted: February 14, 2016, 11:48 am - IP Logged

Your first problem is getting to the point where you could assume that one of the numbers will repeat and assume that it will be a double. If you somehow knew that would happen in advance then yes, you have improved your odds with a filter. However, my view of reality is that the past draws do not affect the future draws, so I am not sticking down 42, 48, 126, or 144 plays in a single draw based on the initial assumption.

      What would you consider a good gamble?

Gambling by it's very nature is assumption and risk. 

 "My view of Reality"  The House odds are the stricter reality.

 The State government's Pick 3house odds and payouts are worse than bad.

 Their game and their rules, but that's the gambler's reality.

 The house odds are just like "Aunt Bee's pickles."  Like sheriff Andy Taylor says,"we just have to learn to love em' ".

 Gamblers start at the top of those odds and attempt to work their way down.

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    Madison, WI
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    Posted: February 14, 2016, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

          What would you consider a good gamble?

    Gambling by it's very nature is assumption and risk. 

     "My view of Reality"  The House odds are the stricter reality.

     The State government's Pick 3house odds and payouts are worse than bad.

     Their game and their rules, but that's the gambler's reality.

     The house odds are just like "Aunt Bee's pickles."  Like sheriff Andy Taylor says,"we just have to learn to love em' ".

     Gamblers start at the top of those odds and attempt to work their way down.

    I was just expressing my own opinion. It doesn't take long to realize that many people on here believe that past results do affect future results. Maybe they are right. I was just making clear my belief so as to explain my reason to be sceptical of buying in to your theory. That way you can discount my scepticism if you so choose for the right reason.

    I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this is the mathematics forum so I feel  like I should be able to counter a theory using math. The math simply doesn't change based on past draws, unless the draws are not actually random. I have yet to see any evidence that they are not random so I'm not going to be sinking a load of cash into a theory based on the draws not being random.

    I play because I find it entertaining and exciting to check the numbers each draw with the hope of winning. I'm interested in using mathematics to gain some kind of advantage because I enjoy mathematics, I just haven't been convinced of anything yet.

      Edibs3's avatar - not found.png
      Saint Martinville
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      Posted: February 15, 2016, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

      I was just expressing my own opinion. It doesn't take long to realize that many people on here believe that past results do affect future results. Maybe they are right. I was just making clear my belief so as to explain my reason to be sceptical of buying in to your theory. That way you can discount my scepticism if you so choose for the right reason.

      I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this is the mathematics forum so I feel  like I should be able to counter a theory using math. The math simply doesn't change based on past draws, unless the draws are not actually random. I have yet to see any evidence that they are not random so I'm not going to be sinking a load of cash into a theory based on the draws not being random.

      I play because I find it entertaining and exciting to check the numbers each draw with the hope of winning. I'm interested in using mathematics to gain some kind of advantage because I enjoy mathematics, I just haven't been convinced of anything yet.

      Past draw history wasn't part of the demo at all, so it was confusing when mentioned. 

      Everything up to now has only been about ODDS and how to best use those odds.

      The only draw history used here so far has been, sometimes its a double, and sometimes it's a single.   72%,27%,1% 

       

      The odds and payouts of Pick 3 are not good, but we have to know what they are. We have to make the best of them, and play within those limits.

      Odds are hard facts and they never change regardless of past draws. 

      We should know were the lines are.

      The demo was for whatever happens regardless of out come.

      History does tell us it will be Heads or Tails next draw. Both were options in the examples. 

       

        Change of subject briefly

       That said, using probability after we finish considering all the ODDS. That's a horse of a different color.

       Now then, before we bet, Probability evaluations are key.

       Yes, we do go there. Ultimately,we bet on it.

       Probability, "is the man behind the curtain".   

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        Madison, WI
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        Posted: February 15, 2016, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

        Past draw history wasn't part of the demo at all, so it was confusing when mentioned. 

        Everything up to now has only been about ODDS and how to best use those odds.

        The only draw history used here so far has been, sometimes its a double, and sometimes it's a single.   72%,27%,1% 

         

        The odds and payouts of Pick 3 are not good, but we have to know what they are. We have to make the best of them, and play within those limits.

        Odds are hard facts and they never change regardless of past draws. 

        We should know were the lines are.

        The demo was for whatever happens regardless of out come.

        History does tell us it will be Heads or Tails next draw. Both were options in the examples. 

         

          Change of subject briefly

         That said, using probability after we finish considering all the ODDS. That's a horse of a different color.

         Now then, before we bet, Probability evaluations are key.

         Yes, we do go there. Ultimately,we bet on it.

         Probability, "is the man behind the curtain".   

        Past history was part of your demo, because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double. With the assumption, you are basing your pick selection on that last draw, in some kind of attempt to improve your odds for the next draw.

        TBH, I'm having kind of a difficult time getting to what your points are in some of your posts, so it is difficult to respond to it all either agreeing or disagreeing.

          Edibs3's avatar - not found.png
          Saint Martinville
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          Posted: February 15, 2016, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

          Past history was part of your demo, because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double. With the assumption, you are basing your pick selection on that last draw, in some kind of attempt to improve your odds for the next draw.

          TBH, I'm having kind of a difficult time getting to what your points are in some of your posts, so it is difficult to respond to it all either agreeing or disagreeing.

          " because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double."

                Oh well, the attempt was to show both sides using 2 demos and present both ways. Will it have a repeat digit next or not?

                Will it, or will it not be a double or single? Which one of the options have the best chances to win according to the odds? 

                The example of 012 was an arbitrary choice. However, the subsequent options/odds shown in the 2 demos were valid. Regardless of any 3 unlike digits.

                Wisconsin my friend, thanks again for the math help. 

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            Madison, WI
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            Posted: February 15, 2016, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

            " because your proposed strategy started with assuming that there is a repeat in the next draw and that it is a double."

                  Oh well, the attempt was to show both sides using 2 demos and present both ways. Will it have a repeat digit next or not?

                  Will it, or will it not be a double or single? Which one of the options have the best chances to win according to the odds? 

                  The example of 012 was an arbitrary choice. However, the subsequent options/odds shown in the 2 demos were valid. Regardless of any 3 unlike digits.

                  Wisconsin my friend, thanks again for the math help. 

            IMO, your best chances according to the odds are the same no matter what the last draw was. Picking singles is twice as likely to hit as doubles if you are playing box because there are twice as many ways the singles can be arranged. Of course, generally, you win twice as much on the double. So, half the chance, double the reward.

              lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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              Posted: February 15, 2016, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

              IMO, your best chances according to the odds are the same no matter what the last draw was. Picking singles is twice as likely to hit as doubles if you are playing box because there are twice as many ways the singles can be arranged. Of course, generally, you win twice as much on the double. So, half the chance, double the reward.

              What's your point?  Nothing anyone had spent too much time explaining  to you does any good.  Why not play the way you prefer instead of all the verbage?!

               

              Drum

              How about them cowboys!

               

               

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                Madison, WI
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                Posted: February 16, 2016, 11:46 am - IP Logged

                What's your point?  Nothing anyone had spent too much time explaining  to you does any good.  Why not play the way you prefer instead of all the verbage?!

                 

                Drum

                This is the mathematics forum. The OP was inquiring how the math looks in various circumstances and my point was to try to answer those questions.

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                  Burlington, VT
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                  Posted: February 26, 2016, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

                  The probability of one of the three digits from the last draw being in the next draw depends on whether the previous draw had 3 distinct digits, 2 distinct digits, or just one (e.g., 555). If it's 555, then the probability the next draw will have a 5 in it is 1-0.9^3=27.1% (a bit less than 3/10 because the result could have 2 5's or 3 5's). 2 distinct digits is more likely, and 3 is even more likely.

                  Because probability theory only works for future events, let's calculate the probability of the 2nd drawing from now having a digit that is one of the three in the next draw.

                  prob(repeat given 3 distinct digits)=1-0.7^3=0.657

                  prob(next draw having 3 distinct digits)=0.72

                   

                  prob(repeat given 2 distinct digits)=1-0.8^3=0.488

                  prob(next draw having 2 distinct digits)=0.27

                   

                  prob(repeat given 1 distinct digit)=1-0.9^3=0.271

                  prob(next draw having 1 distinct digit)=0.01

                   

                  prob(next draw having 3 distinct digits AND repeats in the next draw)=0.72*0.657=0.47304

                  prob(next draw having 2 distinct digits AND repeats in the next draw)=0.27*0.488=0.13176

                  prob(next draw having 1 distinct digit AND repeats in the next draw)=0.01*0.271=0.00271

                  Add these together and you get 0.60751.

                  This is a bit less than 65.7% because the 65.7% is based on the next draw having 3 distinct digits. But it might not, and when that happens, the probability of the 2nd draw having a repeat drops, and so the overall probability of a repeat in the 2nd draw from now is 60.751%.

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                    bgonçalves
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                    Posted: February 27, 2016, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

                    Hello tucker, how likely repeat a 1 digit of the previous draw in the same position
                    Example
                    478
                    Next draw gave 158 repeated the digit 8 in the same position

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                      Madison, WI
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                      Posted: February 27, 2016, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

                      Hello tucker, how likely repeat a 1 digit of the previous draw in the same position
                      Example
                      478
                      Next draw gave 158 repeated the digit 8 in the same position

                      I believe each line would have a 1 in 10 chance of repeating. The chance of one or more repeating in the same position would be:

                      1-(.9*.9*.9) as a percentage. 27.1%.

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                        bgonçalves
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                        Posted: February 27, 2016, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

                        ok perfect=, 27% then 73% are not repeated. the repetition of the condition of a digit in the last draw for the next is better not to play in the same position position are 73% / 27%
                        The best thing is to play not repeating the position !!

                          hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                          Posted: March 1, 2016, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

                          1 in 10 for a repeat in any position, if a repeat is what you are favoring.

                          1 in 100 for doubles to repeat on the next draw in the same position.

                          for three single repeats, 1 in 10 twice, not 1 in 100, but 2 separate events of 1 in 10.

                          No need to get any fancier than that. if they draw a 7, there is one chance the next draw to get a 7, 9 chances to NOT get a 7.

                          Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

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                            Madison, WI
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                            Posted: March 1, 2016, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

                            ok perfect=, 27% then 73% are not repeated. the repetition of the condition of a digit in the last draw for the next is better not to play in the same position position are 73% / 27%
                            The best thing is to play not repeating the position !!

                            Eh.. I dont go that far with it. The fact is that the chance of a repeat is the same as the chance of predicting the result. When you look at repeats, you are effectively "picking" the same number as the last draw for the next draw. Your chance of getting at least one number in the correct position is 27.1% with either the same numbers or new numbers. The only way the odds are much different is if you are trying to predict the repeat before the first of the two draws.

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                              Posted: March 3, 2016, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

                              -> homepage -> daily 3 -> last 10 -> button repeaters

                              Look at it!