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I'm new to this Game...AND frustrated!

Topic closed. 34 replies. Last post 9 months ago by Rexer90.

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Wyomissing, PA
United States
Member #161050
November 15, 2014
301 Posts
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Posted: March 30, 2016, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

Read my previous reply regarding 8 triples out of ~1548 draws. What's the odds of being drawn 8 times instead of some value towards 15? Probably low single digit percentage. Your point is well taken regarding range, but keeping it simple for readers.

In the ideal, perfect world, computer RNG is just as good as balls. But in the real world, time and time again, lottery computer RNGs have come up short for various reasons, including outright mis-configuration, leading to skewed results. To make matters worse, in all the instances I've read of, it wasn't the lottery that realized there was an issue, but rather players who noticed something amiss.

There was a chat on LP here awhile back with a top lottery official. I asked whether the computer source code / programming for their lottery RNGs was available to the public, and his response, to paraphrase, was "of course not". There's little to no transparency; blind trust in the equipment lotteries use to draw numbers. Computer RNG games (slots, video poker, etc) located in physical casinos (Las Vegas and Atlantic City, in particular), by and large, are seemingly more scrutinized than lottery games.

All this talk of randomness illustrates how difficult it is to get ahead playing the lottery unless one very lucky. No system, strategy, etc alone will overcome a 50% house advantage barring an exploitable flaw, security breach, etc.

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    Slovenia
    Member #172924
    February 9, 2016
    46 Posts
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    Posted: March 30, 2016, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

    Read my previous reply regarding 8 triples out of ~1548 draws. What's the odds of being drawn 8 times instead of some value towards 15? Probably low single digit percentage. Your point is well taken regarding range, but keeping it simple for readers.

    In the ideal, perfect world, computer RNG is just as good as balls. But in the real world, time and time again, lottery computer RNGs have come up short for various reasons, including outright mis-configuration, leading to skewed results. To make matters worse, in all the instances I've read of, it wasn't the lottery that realized there was an issue, but rather players who noticed something amiss.

    There was a chat on LP here awhile back with a top lottery official. I asked whether the computer source code / programming for their lottery RNGs was available to the public, and his response, to paraphrase, was "of course not". There's little to no transparency; blind trust in the equipment lotteries use to draw numbers. Computer RNG games (slots, video poker, etc) located in physical casinos (Las Vegas and Atlantic City, in particular), by and large, are seemingly more scrutinized than lottery games.

    All this talk of randomness illustrates how difficult it is to get ahead playing the lottery unless one very lucky. No system, strategy, etc alone will overcome a 50% house advantage barring an exploitable flaw, security breach, etc.

    The odds of 8 triplets in 1548 draws are 1.5%. The odds of less than 9 triplets in that many draws are 2.9%. These are low odds but they are nothing to be suspicious about. Something with the odds of just 2.9% will happen approximately once every 34 trials. So if you have at least 34 different Pick3 lotteries around the world with at least 1500 past draws each, we can already expect this occurrence.

    I completely agree with your criticism of RNGs when it comes to security concerns and computer bugs. That is why I never play those lotteries as well as no scratch-offs (I've read too many stories about people figuring them out). My only point was that a lot of people here besides those genuine concerns also add pseudo-randomness as a reason to avoid RNGs, not realising that elaborate pseudo-random sequence is 99.99999999999999999% true random, so long as we assume that no rigging and no computer bugs are in place.

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      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7344 Posts
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      Posted: March 30, 2016, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

      "Many of the LP members are discussing the jackpot games where players must beat over 900,000 to 1 odds to win $100 playing PB ......." 

      *odds of matching 3of5 + 1 bonus number in PB for $100 = 1:14,494
        odds of matching 4of5 + 0 bonus number in PB for $100 = 1:36,525
        odds of matching 4of5 + 1 bonus numder in PB for $50000 = 1:913,129

      If PB players cared about odds to payoff ratios, they wouldn't play very often. But considering only 4% of the tickets win anything, winning $100 every 14,494 drawings is better than nothing.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19903 Posts
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        Posted: April 6, 2016, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

        If PB players cared about odds to payoff ratios, they wouldn't play very often. But considering only 4% of the tickets win anything, winning $100 every 14,494 drawings is better than nothing.

        Players who care about winning regardless of the odds or payout ratios know they won't win if they don't play.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

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          LA Ca.
          United States
          Member #172750
          February 3, 2016
          89 Posts
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          Posted: April 9, 2016, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

          "There's much confirmation bias here leading one to believe that lottery systems work"

           

          I Agree!  Ask any so-called expert here or ANYONE with a so-called system to demonstrate and prepare yourself for the deafening silence, or collection of excuses as to why they can't.  Especially, the one's who say they have a system, but when asked for directions, they give you a Donald Trump-like "explanation" or say that you have to use your "imagination or dreams" to pick the numbers. Roll Eyes

           

          And the Law of Attraction is utter and complete nonsense.  I really wish that dark ages thinking would go away.

          Law of Attraction is nothing more than simple confirmation bias. It's just like when people pray for something & it actually happens.. like praying the rain would stop... It would have happened any way. Claiming you made it happen via some superstitious nonsense/Jedi mind trick just shows the world you are about as dumb as it gets & also extremely gullible.

          People playing the lottery & acting like it's 1416, not 2016.

          That Stafford woman is a prime example. Claimed she knew she would win the amount she won AFTER she won it. Makes about as much sense as waking up Monday morning & claiming you always knew yesterday would be Sunday.

          She never did explain why she spent all that money on tickets for years when the jackpot wasn't $120M (or however much she won). "I know I'm going to win $120M, but let me just piss away $10 on a ticket when the jackpot is $53M"... & the worse part of it is, there are idiots out there who believe her.