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I need help with odds calculations

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 7 months ago by looking4$.

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looking4$'s avatar - Lottery-054.jpg
Dana Point, CA
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Posted: April 9, 2016, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

Can any of you math wizzards help me find out what my odds would be if I eliminated 5 out of 26 Powerballs or 10 out of 69 field numbers? Is there a general formula so I can plug in the numbers on different size games to see how my odds will increase/decrease? Oh, I am using plain ol' Excel so nothing difficult if possible.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: April 9, 2016, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

    Can any of you math wizzards help me find out what my odds would be if I eliminated 5 out of 26 Powerballs or 10 out of 69 field numbers? Is there a general formula so I can plug in the numbers on different size games to see how my odds will increase/decrease? Oh, I am using plain ol' Excel so nothing difficult if possible.

    You don't need to be a math wizard, any odds calculator can be used to answer your question.  If you reduce the number pool by 10 and the bonus pool by 6 then you would figure the odds for a 5/59+1/20 game which would be:

    5/6+B=1:100,127,720 with overall odds of 1:10

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      looking4$'s avatar - Lottery-054.jpg
      Dana Point, CA
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      Posted: April 9, 2016, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

      Thank you for your response RJOh. So in reality you are making that game a 5/49+1/14? I don't understand what 5/6+B is.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: April 9, 2016, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

        Thank you for your response RJOh. So in reality you are making that game a 5/49+1/14? I don't understand what 5/6+B is.

        Sorry, that 5/6+B should be 5/5+B and those figures were for a 5/59+1/20 game.  That will be obvious when you check them with an odds calculator.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          looking4$'s avatar - Lottery-054.jpg
          Dana Point, CA
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          Posted: April 9, 2016, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

          Great. Thanx for the info

            Raven62's avatar - binary
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            Posted: April 10, 2016, 4:47 am - IP Logged

            Can any of you math wizzards help me find out what my odds would be if I eliminated 5 out of 26 Powerballs or 10 out of 69 field numbers? Is there a general formula so I can plug in the numbers on different size games to see how my odds will increase/decrease? Oh, I am using plain ol' Excel so nothing difficult if possible.

            Easy as PI: http://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball-calculator/

            A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

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              Posted: April 10, 2016, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

              "what my odds would be if ..."

              Each ticket you buy will have odds of 1 in 292,201,338 for winning the jackpot. It doesn't matter how many numbers you decide not to use, because when they conduct the drawing they're going to use all of them.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
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                Posted: April 15, 2016, 8:55 am - IP Logged

                "what my odds would be if ..."

                Each ticket you buy will have odds of 1 in 292,201,338 for winning the jackpot. It doesn't matter how many numbers you decide not to use, because when they conduct the drawing they're going to use all of them.

                True but since the winning combinations only have 5 of the 69 numbers pool and 1 of the 26 bonus numbers pool players are constantly trying to win and reduce their cost by reducing the number pools, it called wheeling. 

                As demonstrated by the participants in the Maddog's challenges, they are usually lucky to cover enough of the winning numbers to have even a small win.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

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                  Posted: April 15, 2016, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

                  True but since the winning combinations only have 5 of the 69 numbers pool and 1 of the 26 bonus numbers pool players are constantly trying to win and reduce their cost by reducing the number pools, it called wheeling. 

                  As demonstrated by the participants in the Maddog's challenges, they are usually lucky to cover enough of the winning numbers to have even a small win.

                  The point was that you can reduce the number pools all you want, but it doesn't reduce the actual pool of numbers in play. 

                    looking4$'s avatar - Lottery-054.jpg
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                    Posted: April 16, 2016, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

                    If you take away 1/3 of the numbers wouldn't your chances increase to 1:97,400? What I'm trying to figure, is picking your own numbers really better than just playing Quick Picks?

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                      Posted: April 17, 2016, 9:38 am - IP Logged

                      If you take away 1/3 of the numbers wouldn't your chances increase to 1:97,400? What I'm trying to figure, is picking your own numbers really better than just playing Quick Picks?

                      If you took away 1/3 of the numbers it would only improve your chances if the lottery also took away the same 1/3 of numbers.

                      As far as your second question, that's the million dollar question the it appears people have been trying to solve here for years. Still not answered in my opinion. Some believe they find the patterns and systems that solve it, but I haven't seen evidence that bears that out as of yet. Still hoping its out there somewhere though!

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                        Posted: April 17, 2016, 11:06 am - IP Logged

                        If you take away 1/3 of the numbers wouldn't your chances increase to 1:97,400? What I'm trying to figure, is picking your own numbers really better than just playing Quick Picks?

                        "I'm trying to figure, is picking your own numbers really better than just playing Quick Picks?"

                        According to websites like MUSL and many state lottery websites, 70-80% of all winners are quick-picks but the percent of winners among the self-picks and quick-picks are the same.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                          Posted: April 17, 2016, 11:39 am - IP Logged

                          The point was that you can reduce the number pools all you want, but it doesn't reduce the actual pool of numbers in play. 

                          What a person is trying to do is filter out numbers to reduce the odds. IF the conditions in the draw are met, then a person has better odds than playing the entire field of numbers in the game. When I pick numbers for Texas Lotto (6/54). I don't play numbers in the 50's, or numbers that were in the last draw. So I'm playing from a pool of 43 numbers for odds of 1 in 6096454, instead of 1 in 25,827,165. That's over 19 million combinations off the table.

                          Does it work all the time? Of course not. There are times when a number in the 50's will play. There are times when 1 or 2 numbers from the previous draw will be drawn again. But, the idea is to reduce the odds WHEN those conditions are met for that draw.

                          To each his own.

                          CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                          A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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                            Madison, WI
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                            Posted: April 17, 2016, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                            What a person is trying to do is filter out numbers to reduce the odds. IF the conditions in the draw are met, then a person has better odds than playing the entire field of numbers in the game. When I pick numbers for Texas Lotto (6/54). I don't play numbers in the 50's, or numbers that were in the last draw. So I'm playing from a pool of 43 numbers for odds of 1 in 6096454, instead of 1 in 25,827,165. That's over 19 million combinations off the table.

                            Does it work all the time? Of course not. There are times when a number in the 50's will play. There are times when 1 or 2 numbers from the previous draw will be drawn again. But, the idea is to reduce the odds WHEN those conditions are met for that draw.

                            To each his own.

                            Right, but just making the point that filtering out the 50s and previous draws or other numbers doesn't change the odds at all. Combine the odds of your conditions occurring with the odds of being right within your remaining numbers and you are back to the same odds you started with. Its more a mind thing than anything else.

                            Taken to the extreme, if I filter out everything but one remaining combination of numbers, I have increased my odds of winning to 100% if my conditions have been met. Still doesn't make my actual odds any better.

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                              Posted: April 17, 2016, 3:09 pm - IP Logged

                              Exactly. If somebody really believes wheeling actually works they should just wheel 5 regular numbers and 1 bonus number, and then play all one of the possible combinations. "If the conditions are met" they'll win and they won't have lost any money playing a bunch of losing combinations.

                              Of course that bit about "ff the conditions are met" probably won't work in your favor. It's no different than saying I'll be a billionaire tomorrow if Bill Gates writes me a big enough check tonight. It's 100% true and there's a 99.999999999999999% chance it won't happen.