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I need help with odds calculations

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 8 months ago by looking4$.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
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Posted: April 17, 2016, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

Exactly. If somebody really believes wheeling actually works they should just wheel 5 regular numbers and 1 bonus number, and then play all one of the possible combinations. "If the conditions are met" they'll win and they won't have lost any money playing a bunch of losing combinations.

Of course that bit about "ff the conditions are met" probably won't work in your favor. It's no different than saying I'll be a billionaire tomorrow if Bill Gates writes me a big enough check tonight. It's 100% true and there's a 99.999999999999999% chance it won't happen.

"It's no different than saying I'll be a billionaire tomorrow if Bill Gates writes me a big enough check tonight. It's 100% true and there's a 99.999999999999999% chance it won't happen."

I doubt if even a relatives of Bill Gates would think there's a chance of a snowball in hell of that ever being true let alone actually happening but saying if I pick the next MM winning combination with 20 lines I'll be a millionaire is 100% true and there's a .000000077252% chance it will happen because it has happen before. 

Winning a lottery jackpot isn't uncharted territory so trying to repeat what others have done no matter how unlikely isn't as crazy as some think.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
    Texas
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    Posted: April 18, 2016, 11:49 am - IP Logged

    "It's no different than saying I'll be a billionaire tomorrow if Bill Gates writes me a big enough check tonight. It's 100% true and there's a 99.999999999999999% chance it won't happen."

    I doubt if even a relatives of Bill Gates would think there's a chance of a snowball in hell of that ever being true let alone actually happening but saying if I pick the next MM winning combination with 20 lines I'll be a millionaire is 100% true and there's a .000000077252% chance it will happen because it has happen before. 

    Winning a lottery jackpot isn't uncharted territory so trying to repeat what others have done no matter how unlikely isn't as crazy as some think.

    I learned that idea from BobP. It doesn't matter if anyone is playing QP's, or any other method. There are conditions to winning a jackpot. Again, the idea is to try to reduce the odds when the conditions of however you're playing are met. It's not perfect.

    Not sure how Bill Gates got into the discussion.

    Again, to each his own.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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      Madison, WI
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      February 11, 2016
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      Posted: April 18, 2016, 12:14 pm - IP Logged

      I learned that idea from BobP. It doesn't matter if anyone is playing QP's, or any other method. There are conditions to winning a jackpot. Again, the idea is to try to reduce the odds when the conditions of however you're playing are met. It's not perfect.

      Not sure how Bill Gates got into the discussion.

      Again, to each his own.

      Its understood that you are trying to reduce the odds. You do see, however, that just ignoring a bunch of numbers, or evens/odds, something like that, doesn't actually reduce the odds at all, right? Your odds are still exactly the same as if you included all the numbers in your picks. So it is really just a fictitious mind game to feel better about your chances.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: April 18, 2016, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

        I learned that idea from BobP. It doesn't matter if anyone is playing QP's, or any other method. There are conditions to winning a jackpot. Again, the idea is to try to reduce the odds when the conditions of however you're playing are met. It's not perfect.

        Not sure how Bill Gates got into the discussion.

        Again, to each his own.

        "Not sure how Bill Gates got into the discussion."

        Actually the poster who started this thread was doing fine as long as he stucked to questions about calculating lottery games odds, it was when he assumed such knowledge could be used to calculate a winning combination that the confusion started. 

        Reminds me of the time I instructed a member how he could use copy and paste in Notepad to replace the numbers in a lottery wheel and he replied that was easy now tell me how to write a program using Notepad.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
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          rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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          Posted: April 18, 2016, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

          "Not sure how Bill Gates got into the discussion."

          Actually the poster who started this thread was doing fine as long as he stucked to questions about calculating lottery games odds, it was when he assumed such knowledge could be used to calculate a winning combination that the confusion started. 

          Reminds me of the time I instructed a member how he could use copy and paste in Notepad to replace the numbers in a lottery wheel and he replied that was easy now tell me how to write a program using Notepad.

          Sorry RJ. I hadnt intended to respond to you directly. I clicked the wrong text box.

          CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

          A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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            Posted: April 18, 2016, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

            Its understood that you are trying to reduce the odds. You do see, however, that just ignoring a bunch of numbers, or evens/odds, something like that, doesn't actually reduce the odds at all, right? Your odds are still exactly the same as if you included all the numbers in your picks. So it is really just a fictitious mind game to feel better about your chances.

            Well. Not sure about your mind game thing. I dont play mind games. I use strategies to help play the lottery.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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              Posted: April 18, 2016, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

              "It's no different than saying I'll be a billionaire tomorrow if Bill Gates writes me a big enough check tonight. It's 100% true and there's a 99.999999999999999% chance it won't happen."

              I doubt if even a relatives of Bill Gates would think there's a chance of a snowball in hell of that ever being true let alone actually happening but saying if I pick the next MM winning combination with 20 lines I'll be a millionaire is 100% true and there's a .000000077252% chance it will happen because it has happen before. 

              Winning a lottery jackpot isn't uncharted territory so trying to repeat what others have done no matter how unlikely isn't as crazy as some think.

              You've obviously never take a course in logic or you'd recognize that the conditions for a lottery wheel and my analogy about Bill Gates are both conditional statements following the usual if-then format, and they're both true.  If the required conditions are met then the result will occur. That the conditions may not be met doesn't make the statement untrue. You've used your own conditional statement about winning MM - if you play the winning combinations then you'll win (regardless of whether or not it ever happened before). That will be true twice a week for as long as MM and you are both around. Even if you never buy a ticket again it will still be true, because if you did buy a ticket with the winning numbers you would win.

              That's why somebody can advertise lottery wheels and not run afoul of truth in advertising laws. They're selling snake oil, but if they make any promises about the snake oil it's only that it's oil. The only promise about a wheel that can be kept is that the wheel improves your odds if the winning numbers come from the subset used for the wheel.

              "trying to repeat what others have done no matter how unlikely isn't as crazy as some think."

              And that brings us right back to the original subject of the thread. You can choose from a subset of numbers, but the lottery will be using all of them and your odds of winning are determined by how many numbers the lottery uses not how many you use. There's nothing crazy about trying to win the lottery. It's the belief that previous random events are going to help you guess a future random event that's crazy.

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                Madison, WI
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                Posted: April 19, 2016, 10:28 am - IP Logged

                You've obviously never take a course in logic or you'd recognize that the conditions for a lottery wheel and my analogy about Bill Gates are both conditional statements following the usual if-then format, and they're both true.  If the required conditions are met then the result will occur. That the conditions may not be met doesn't make the statement untrue. You've used your own conditional statement about winning MM - if you play the winning combinations then you'll win (regardless of whether or not it ever happened before). That will be true twice a week for as long as MM and you are both around. Even if you never buy a ticket again it will still be true, because if you did buy a ticket with the winning numbers you would win.

                That's why somebody can advertise lottery wheels and not run afoul of truth in advertising laws. They're selling snake oil, but if they make any promises about the snake oil it's only that it's oil. The only promise about a wheel that can be kept is that the wheel improves your odds if the winning numbers come from the subset used for the wheel.

                "trying to repeat what others have done no matter how unlikely isn't as crazy as some think."

                And that brings us right back to the original subject of the thread. You can choose from a subset of numbers, but the lottery will be using all of them and your odds of winning are determined by how many numbers the lottery uses not how many you use. There's nothing crazy about trying to win the lottery. It's the belief that previous random events are going to help you guess a future random event that's crazy.

                Ahhh.. Sanity and common sense. Wonderful to see.

                  JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                  The Quantum Master
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                  Posted: April 19, 2016, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

                  Can any of you math wizzards help me find out what my odds would be if I eliminated 5 out of 26 Powerballs or 10 out of 69 field numbers? Is there a general formula so I can plug in the numbers on different size games to see how my odds will increase/decrease? Oh, I am using plain ol' Excel so nothing difficult if possible.

                  Interesting read.

                   

                  "Can any of you math wizzards help me find out what my odds would be if I eliminated 5 out of 26 Powerballs or 10 out of 69 field numbers?"

                  This we understand.

                   

                  "Is there a general formula so I can plug in the numbers on different size games to see how my odds will increase/decrease?"

                  Does 'different size game' mean different sets to eliminate, like eliminate 10 out of 26 Powerballs instead of 5 out of 26 Powerballs, as an example?

                   

                  "Oh, I am using plain ol' Excel so nothing difficult if possible."

                  Understood.

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                  Use at your own risk.

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                  Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                  Wisdom is Not Censored
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                  Jehocifer

                    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                    The Quantum Master
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                    Posted: April 22, 2016, 8:40 am - IP Logged

                    must not be important anymore.

                    but, it does give us a thought.

                    Red Eyes

                    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                    Use at your own risk.

                    Order is a Subset of Chaos
                    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                    Wisdom is Not Censored
                    Douglas Paul Smallish
                    Jehocifer

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: April 22, 2016, 10:29 am - IP Logged

                      must not be important anymore.

                      but, it does give us a thought.

                      Red Eyes

                      Members are always asking about calculating lottery odds, I'm surprised Todd hasn't included one among the many tools at LP.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
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                        looking4$'s avatar - Lottery-054.jpg
                        Dana Point, CA
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                        Posted: April 22, 2016, 10:26 pm - IP Logged

                        Well said Wisconsin3054. Exactly, trying to feel better about my chances/choices and not failing into the Quick Pick cesspool.