|Posted: April 24, 2016, 10:43 pm - IP Logged|
I posted these for their straight hits but from winsums post they don't show advantage when applied to
several states as some had no hits at all. I generated another list of 576 lines which does around 3x better
overall but I can't see any real value in a list that size for a pick-4 game. The program is part of a pre-draw
tool I had hoped would reduce any matrix down to a fraction of it's original size and still maintain a large
percentage of prizes which it seems to do quite well for number games.
Here are the results for one 5-39 run. The tool reduced from 575757 to 26,170 lines. This list was generated
with zero user input and would make up the pool/lines used by the rest of the program. Notice that the pool
shown above offers better odds for each prize level then those given for the full matrix. Even when the 5of5 is
not in the list the lower level prizes are not decreased much which should produce more wins overall. Here we
can see that the odds for a 4of5 hit selecting 1 line from this list is 1 in 26170/28=935 where the full matrix has
odds for a 4of5 of 1 in 3386. IMHO as long as the lower level prize ratio remains at least as good as the odds
of the full matrix then there is no downside to playing from the much smaller matrix generated by this tool. The
fewer the lines we start with means the fewer processes we need to reduce to a playable amount. The fewer
processes we have to apply means less mistakes. Every choice we have to make in the reduction cycle has it's
own odds and these odds when combined reduces our chances for winning. Fewer choices means fewer mistakes.
You may also notice that the odds for a non-winning line/prise increased which is another positive aspect. I am
sure that I can reduce this list even more without much effect on the prize ratios for number games but the daily
pick-3 and pick-4 may not offer the same value because there are no lower level prizes for these games. My main
focus is on reducing my cost by winning more lower level prizes. I do not think one can gain much advantage over
the 5of5 or JP prizes so we are left with the only one way which is to play more lines. This however is a good way
to break the bank unless we can increase our lower level wins.