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HOT DIGIT ?? or something more?

Topic closed. 129 replies. Last post 2 months ago by Jayhawk58.

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Posted: August 31, 2016, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

I reread your post more carefully, and I do like what you are looking for.

However,

The premise is that "when a consecutive pair appears, one of those two digits is likely to occur within 3 draws." FACT.

This statement is absolutely true. But I would encourage you to look at whether that really has anything to do with the consecutive pair appearing or not. I think if you look at it, any digit is likely to occur within 3 draws. If likely means something along the lines of greater than 50% chance. I know you don't like the numbers, but the fact is that any digit, over three pick 3 draws, will show once or more about 61% of the time, which I would say makes it likely.

When you expand it to looking for either digit of a pair, your are talking about 2 potential digits. With any two distinct digits, over three pick 3 draws, one of the two digits will show once or more about 87% of the time, which I would say makes it very likely, and looks a lot like the numbers you were getting.

I guess I tend to think of the pairs as pointers. Otherwise, I am making a decision on one or two digits from a combo versus a solid direction. Yes, I know all about "random" and "odds". I think this brings "probability" closer in play. I'm sure there are persons who can successfully "pick"the right one from three digits, but can they do it consistently? And it is three digits unless it's a double or you are designating another type of pair or group.

I will re-examine the "stats" if you will to see if what you suggest can be placed in any kind of order.

BTW, tonight's draw was in workout, however I eliminated it because of it's sum. I usually only play sums 9-22.

 Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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    Posted: August 31, 2016, 11:49 pm - IP Logged

    This works nicely in the new Florida p-2 game. A lot of hits the very next draw. Only one time below was there a skip of one day. 

    The next step is to find the second digit to play with. Great job !

    August 1 eve-34

    August 2 mid-35

     

    August 4 mid-87

    August 5 mid-28

     

    August 6 eve-65

    August 7 eve-46

     

    August 11 eve-01

    August 12 eve-11

     

    August 17 eve-01

    August 18 eve-11

     

    August 20 mid-43

    August 20 eve-94

     

    August 26 eve-54

    August 27 mid-55

    August 27 eve-34

     

    August 27 eve-34

    August 29 eve-74

     

    August 28 eve-78

    August 29 eve-74

    Way to go. Amber!! Glad this was able to help you in some way. We don't have pick 2 here in the Sunflower state. Your observations and willingness to try something different will pay off!!

     Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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      bgonçalves
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      Posted: September 1, 2016, 9:39 am - IP Logged

      Hello jaylank 58, you can place the pair in the three pick3 positions
      Example
        Positions = 1.2 1.3 2.3
        Pick = 293 consecutive pair in position 1st and 3rd
      Another example
      845 = par 45 in 2nd and 3rd positions
      Another example =
      679 1st and 2nd positions

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        Posted: September 1, 2016, 9:57 am - IP Logged

        This is true about showing past results. However, most of us use this type of stuff to try to figure out where things are going.....

        If this happens,,,,can this happen? If it does it often enough, it becomes "probable". I think everyone is aware of the odds, we just try to use what's "probable" to our advantage.

         Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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          Posted: September 1, 2016, 10:37 am - IP Logged

          I reread your post more carefully, and I do like what you are looking for.

          However,

          The premise is that "when a consecutive pair appears, one of those two digits is likely to occur within 3 draws." FACT.

          This statement is absolutely true. But I would encourage you to look at whether that really has anything to do with the consecutive pair appearing or not. I think if you look at it, any digit is likely to occur within 3 draws. If likely means something along the lines of greater than 50% chance. I know you don't like the numbers, but the fact is that any digit, over three pick 3 draws, will show once or more about 61% of the time, which I would say makes it likely.

          When you expand it to looking for either digit of a pair, your are talking about 2 potential digits. With any two distinct digits, over three pick 3 draws, one of the two digits will show once or more about 87% of the time, which I would say makes it very likely, and looks a lot like the numbers you were getting.

          Wisconsin....I did go over the draws again and marked them for what they were. I chose to focus on first and second draws as that is what is most likely in both designated pairs category.     Here's what I found:

          Random next draw.....33        Consecutive or mirror pair.....29

          Random two draws....22       Consecutive or mirror pair.....18

          So the totals become Random.......55     55 draws that are based on random, not knowing what could be there.

                      Consecutive or mirror.......47      47 draws that are based on this happened, so this could and has shown to happen.

           

          So, a difference of 4 draws between random and consecutive or mirror pairs for first draw......which seems better? Random, choosing from 3 digits and deciding hot or not. 2 digits if a double.  OR

          Picking a digit or covering 2 digits that show a probability of appearing?

          Difference of 4 for second draw. Choose for what has happened and is measurable, again 2 digits. Or choose what you think could be hot and show again or another digit from that random choice draw for the second, either 3 digits or 2 if a double?

          I do have a good grasp of odds and probability, even though I may not be able to figure the percentages.

          I think most of us would like to make wagers on what we think we can see than what we can not. The real money in pick 3 is straight wagers or doubling up on box combinations. I think I'd rather double down on what I think I see than on what I can not.

          Part of gambling is controlling the risk. I would rather risk on that same scenario. Seems less risky to bet on what is measurable than what is not. The designated pairs have shown that they tend to do this. I can measure this. Can I measure if a 7 shows in a random combination it will show again next draw or the one after. No, in fact the digit that shows from the random draw in the next draw is seldom the same one that showed in the second. So, again having to pick from 3 digits which is "hot" or "hot" enough to show along with a different digit for that random choice.

          Of course, all this matters only if you get the win. I think I stand a better chance in what is probable, not the odds.

           Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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            Posted: September 1, 2016, 10:39 am - IP Logged

            501 hit.

            Thumbs Up

            Good job !! Again, shows that there is more than one way to get there.

             Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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              Posted: September 1, 2016, 10:42 am - IP Logged

              Pick 3 is not a "jackpot" game. I agree with "group" play concept if sure of what you are betting on. If betting on random choices.....not so sure. I would certainly feel more comfortable buying multiples based on what I understand than random.

               Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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                Posted: September 1, 2016, 11:57 am - IP Logged

                picks for 09/01 MID

                Based on 501 draw from 8/31 EVE which is actually a consecutive pair and a mirror pair.

                0-1: 126 135 159

                1-5: 045 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                To cover both sides, eliminate duplicates first...045 126 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                Good luck to all !!

                 Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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                  Posted: September 1, 2016, 12:00 pm - IP Logged

                  picks for 09/01 MID

                  Based on 501 draw from 8/31 EVE which is actually a consecutive pair and a mirror pair.

                  0-1: 126 135 159

                  1-5: 045 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                  To cover both sides, eliminate duplicates first...045 126 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                  Good luck to all !!

                  I am curious as what percent of the time this method comes out?

                    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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                    Posted: September 1, 2016, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

                    picks for 09/01 MID

                    Based on 501 draw from 8/31 EVE which is actually a consecutive pair and a mirror pair.

                    0-1: 126 135 159

                    1-5: 045 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                    To cover both sides, eliminate duplicates first...045 126 135 159 235 456 459 566 569

                    Good luck to all !!

                    I think I saw a very close 50/50 split, or close enough as Win D use to say!

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                      Posted: September 1, 2016, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                      Lottologix

                      I am not good at percentages and I really don't want this to be about that. I would like for it to be about the concept and how you can make it work for you.

                      My original stat were as follows.

                      In 124 draws for KS.....thee were 60 occurrences of  consecutive pairs and 36 occurrences of  mirror pairs. That means 96 out of 124 draws that could benefit from this approach. That's a lot!

                      Of those pairs, consecutive pairs repeated one of those pair digits into the one of the next three draws 49 times. One of next two draws 42 times. Mirror pairs scored a hit in one of the next three draws 30 times and in one of the next two draws 26 times. 

                      If you want to figure the percentage go for it. My thought is if I can reduce enough to cover the draws I can get some wins. I've had some.

                      As you can see by reading the thread, the concept has fared well, I have filtered out the draw twice.

                      Aug 31  MID-862   EVE-501

                      Aug 30  MID-209   EVE-887

                      Aug 29  MID-646   EVE-352

                      There is the draws from my first post highlighted in yellow. The draws following are shown. Seems conceptually solid. Numbers appear to hold up. 

                       

                      What are your thoughts?

                       Rock Chalk Jayhawk

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                        Posted: September 1, 2016, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                        Lottologix

                        I am not good at percentages and I really don't want this to be about that. I would like for it to be about the concept and how you can make it work for you.

                        My original stat were as follows.

                        In 124 draws for KS.....thee were 60 occurrences of  consecutive pairs and 36 occurrences of  mirror pairs. That means 96 out of 124 draws that could benefit from this approach. That's a lot!

                        Of those pairs, consecutive pairs repeated one of those pair digits into the one of the next three draws 49 times. One of next two draws 42 times. Mirror pairs scored a hit in one of the next three draws 30 times and in one of the next two draws 26 times. 

                        If you want to figure the percentage go for it. My thought is if I can reduce enough to cover the draws I can get some wins. I've had some.

                        As you can see by reading the thread, the concept has fared well, I have filtered out the draw twice.

                        Aug 31  MID-862   EVE-501

                        Aug 30  MID-209   EVE-887

                        Aug 29  MID-646   EVE-352

                        There is the draws from my first post highlighted in yellow. The draws following are shown. Seems conceptually solid. Numbers appear to hold up. 

                         

                        What are your thoughts?

                        Jayhawk-

                        Just to be sure your numbers are clear:

                        "60 occurrences of consecutive pairs and 36 occurrences of mirror pairs" Are all of those exclusive or do some overlap. If some overlap, as one of your previous examples did, then you might need to adjust the 96 out of 124 draws stat.

                        In regards to one of the consecutive pair digits showing in either 2 draws or 3 draws, are you numbers for 3 draws inclusive of your numbers for 2 draws? What I mean is, when you say one of next 2 draws 42 times, one of the next 3 draws 49 times, does that mean the third day showed a digit 7 times? or 49 times? I'm assuming 7 times for the total of 49.

                        If I am reading these right, then over 3 draws out for consecutive pairs you are showing about 82% of the time in your sample. For mirror pairs about 83%. The expected rate using random 2 digits instead would be about 87%. So for whatever its worth, the sample you are evaluating does not appear to suggest that using this method improves your chances of finding a digit over random. Doesn't mean it won't work, just means this particular sample doesn't provide evidence of it.

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                          Posted: September 1, 2016, 1:44 pm - IP Logged

                          Lottologix

                          I am not good at percentages and I really don't want this to be about that. I would like for it to be about the concept and how you can make it work for you.

                          My original stat were as follows.

                          In 124 draws for KS.....thee were 60 occurrences of  consecutive pairs and 36 occurrences of  mirror pairs. That means 96 out of 124 draws that could benefit from this approach. That's a lot!

                          Of those pairs, consecutive pairs repeated one of those pair digits into the one of the next three draws 49 times. One of next two draws 42 times. Mirror pairs scored a hit in one of the next three draws 30 times and in one of the next two draws 26 times. 

                          If you want to figure the percentage go for it. My thought is if I can reduce enough to cover the draws I can get some wins. I've had some.

                          As you can see by reading the thread, the concept has fared well, I have filtered out the draw twice.

                          Aug 31  MID-862   EVE-501

                          Aug 30  MID-209   EVE-887

                          Aug 29  MID-646   EVE-352

                          There is the draws from my first post highlighted in yellow. The draws following are shown. Seems conceptually solid. Numbers appear to hold up. 

                           

                          What are your thoughts?

                          As far as looking at 2 draws out, your rate for consecutive pairs was 70%, your rate for mirror pairs was about 72%. The expected rate using random digits would be about 74%, so similar in conclusions to me.

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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                            Posted: September 1, 2016, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

                            60+36=96/124=77%

                            That is a very good hit rate.

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                              Posted: September 1, 2016, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

                              Well.. Carbob that is not a "hit rate", that is the number of times either a consecutive pair or mirror pair showed over 124 draws, which is what Jayhawk is using to trigger the system into play.