If you won, would you appear on My Lottery Dream Home on HGTV? 

David Bromstad is receiving record ratings on Friday nights.

still not worth playing

If a dollar brings 5 dollars it is worth playing. What will it take for it to be worth playing for you ?

When a dollar gets close to a dollar's worth of winnings, the jackpot is so large that hundreds of millions of tickets are sold. That means that if you are the winner, you most likely will have to split it with someone else, making the payback % just as bad as it usually is.

A $2 ticket is currently worth $1.12, assuming that if you win the jackpot you don't have to split it with anyone else. In order to calculate the real value of ? less than $1.12, given the probability of having to split the prize with someone else, I would need to know how many tickets are being sold.

Even if I had to split the jackpot with another player, it would still be more millions of dollars than I now have.

$133 mil is better than $0 mil

EnReval,  This is a tempting offer. If you did a professional and fun job on the show it could become a favorite.

 The new shows will start being videotaped this January.

 Your show would be up there with Rick & Lori Knudsen who purchased millions of dollars of property. They even bought a restaurant. 

 How much will you spend on a home?

.

Tucker Black,  yes, but I too would figure it your way, if I was looking for a way to avoid playing.
OK?  But, I know I'm going to play, because instead of trying to figure how many tickets would be sold,
I look at how much I've I've spent, to date, which, like most or everyone on this board, is nowhere near the 470 or even the 250 million prize, thereby making it well worth playing.

I hope AND know you'll play tonight's game as well as Tuesday's (mm).

Good luck to all.

Mr. Groppo

 Oh no why would I want to do that. I thought lottery post was a collection of members dedicated to taking all the smart moves. Granted Ive never actually watched that show but I've seen enough shows that feature rich people and all the luxury possessions they have.

At 400 million i have to play and at 500 or more Im playing using 4-5 numbers below 30.

Agree.

Instead of over-analyzing tix sold, etc, etc, the fact remains that even if I win second prize, it means INSTANT retirement. And the second prize odds are less than half of my state's lotto game. That's worth $2.

, well said rcb

Definitely going to rise again before draw time. My guess: 550.

MM=470 M

PB=282 M

752 M Up For Grabs!

I got my $2 Ticket early like today just before 5 p.m. good luck to me.-weshar75

If there is one thing l have noticed over the years, it is this. No winner that l can remember, has said that they have wagered hundreds of dollars in order to win the jackpot. Going back to " hot sauce" gf, l think she used 4 lines. The Smith family from NJ, under $10. The recent winning pool from San Jose, 11people chipped in $2.00 a piece. My point? That it does not require a player to purchase lots of tickets in order to win. So quibbling about " it's not high enough" etc etc at the price of $2.00 a ticket seems pretty shortsighted. It's still a dream of millions for change you probably could find lying around in your vehicle, under the mats,ashtray, side doors, glove compartment..etc etc.

Jack Whitaker spent $100 on a drawing.

He is an oddity, l wouldn't have expected anything less. After all, he showed up at a bar or nightclub with a briefcase full of money, decided to take a leak in some spot out back, left the BC there & ended up calling the cops because " someone had stolen his briefcase" inside the establishment.

"A $2 ticket is currently worth $1.12"

Not even close. After losing 36% to federal income tax that $265 million cash value becomes $170 million. The odds of 1 in 302 million means it would take (as an average) $604 million worth of tickets to get that $170 million after federal tax net. That's an expectation value just a hair over 28 cents. If you don't have to pay state income tax, too. Based on the currently projected sales there's less than a 12% chance of a winner, but a single winner is 15 times as likely as multiple winners.

From a probabilistic standpoint the cash value has to be about $943 million for a single winner to see an expectation value of $2 for their $2 bet. Right now that translates to an advertised jackpot of almost $1.7 billion. Of course at that point we'd probably see sales similar to the record PB jackpot. Let's call it 302 million tickets just to makes ticket sales equal to the odds. The odds of a winner would be about 63%, with the chance of a single winner being only 1.4 times as likely as the chance of multiple winners. The upside of jackpot fatigue (along with higher odds) is that for any particular jackpot  amount the chances of a single winner are a bit better than they used to be.

"No winner that l can remember, has said that they have wagered hundreds of dollars in order to win the jackpot."

There was probably never a jackpot winner named Floyd. Only a very tiny percentage of players are named Floyd, just like only a very tiny percentage of tickets are bought by people who spend $100 or more on a single drawing. Being named Floyd (or John, FTM) doesn't do anything to change the odds of winning, but buying 100 tickets makes you 100 times as likely to win as somebody who buys one ticket. Of course even 100 tickets only gives you a 1 in 3 million chance.

The thing is, $2 is $2 and $100 is $100 no matter what the jackpot is. Playing the lottery isn't sensible, but if you're going to play it makes more sense to play when it's $400 million than $40 million.

I don't know which is worse:

those that insist on complaining the pot is never big enough for the money/odds/taxes or those who wake up with the ever popular spent to much on the lottery hangover the next morning 

put your $2 in the pot and smile smile smile 

to the next big winner hopefully it'll be ME!!

  a lotto pool at work is the best way to go!! $2. to "jump in"

Are you near Fond du Lac, Wisconsin?   They used to sell lots of big winners in that town.

Bleudog101, It is called, "The Miracle Mile".

 I am surprised you have not been there. I guess it is too far away from Kentucky. 

Good Luck to all LP members, staff and Todd.

And I don’t understand why people who don’t play the lottery, even when it’s over $400m keeps posting in a forum thread about lottery. Why are they here?

I enjoy the company of all LP participants. Some are waiting for the billion-dollar jackpots.

 They are not deceiving us by saying they have bet when they have not. 

 Sometimes each one of us may need to take a break. Get some fresh air. 

 Good Luck to you on Tuesday night. Will it be Wednesday morning for you?

 Andrew Jackson "Jack" Whitaker, David Lee Edwards, Billy Bob Harrell jr., and many other past winners did not learn how to follow directions. Especially correct advice. It is an acquired skill.

 It will take practice to know how to interview prospective financial advisors. We do not do it every day. Then after we have made our selections we must be willing to listen. They will have the life experience that we do not have yet.

noise-gate,

Whitaker wasn't the normal player but I don't think he was that much of an oddity. I've been in line behind plenty of people who have literally a stack of play slips in their hand, not to mention some of them are irked that they have to fill out play slips. (Prior to that they'd get a kick out of being able to tell someone else what to do. The store got sick of it and posted a sign that they must fill out play slips.)

They're not betting in the $100 range but some are close. And I'm in a rural area. 

The next time the news shows a story about a big jackpot take a good look at some of the tickets people have played.

True.

The expectation value is around 0.55.

I bought a few tickets anyway, seeing it as a fun way to pay taxes.

At least $1.5 on my main home. If you wanted to stay anonymous, this would sure blow it.

I would probably use a business name for the home.

We chip in $4 a week and split it between MM & PB.

Yes wednesday morning it is. I login and watch my tickets online or check the drawing on fl-lottery on youtube.

" There was probably never a jackpot winner named Floyd"- talk about putting a pox on your namesake there big fella. Don't sell yourself short..just yet.

Here is some advice after winning this MM jackpot. When consulting your financial advisers use a whiteboard. Write Legal, Financial, and Fun at the top. The fun will be the easy part.

There was this guy though

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA3hJEbUp7g

I'm not playing

Too much money!

No, music* never been there, don't think that I've ever been to Wisconsin come to think of it.

Bought MM in IN last night and PB tonight as well.  Watch me win here instead!

"the jackpot is so large that hundreds of millions of tickets are sold. That means that if you are the winner, you most likely will have to split it with someone else, making the payback % just as bad as it usually is."

The last time over one hundred million MM tickets were sold was on July 8, 2016 when the advertised jackpot was $508 million and tickets cost $1. PB sold slightly over 100 million tickets this past January when the advertised jackpot was almost $560 million. I believe the MM record in ticket sales was when 651,915,940 were sold for the $640 million March 30, 2012 drawing and the PB record was 635,103,137 on January 13, 2016 advertised $1.58 billion jackpot. 

Having duplicate tickets depends on the the number of possible outcomes and how many tickets are sold. The record MM sales suggest at least 3 duplicates and the split winnings were well over the then 175 million possible outcomes. IMO the problem with your rate of return analyse is players are betting $2 for a "CHANCE" to win millions or if not winning one of the higher value secondary prizes. And lots of players are happy winning something while the others in the 93% that won't match a number or the bonus number say "there is always next drawing". Friday's jackpot sales were about 27% more than on Tuesday, but 31,466,577 tickets sold wasn't nearly enough to suggest selling a jackpot winning ticket.

You'll never win a "it's not worth playing" debate because it's $2 to win millions. IMO it's worth debating those that expect to eventually win either. 

"said that they have wagered hundreds of dollars in order to win the jackpot"

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought you meant a single MM or PB winner wagering more than $200 to win the jackpot. A huge difference between Whittaker's $100 bet and "hundreds of dollars. We didn't win, but I was in a pool that bought 300 Ohio Super Lotto tickets for a $40 million jackpot and I wouldn't call that "hundreds of dollars" either. 

There was lots of money and probably thousands wagered on both the Michigan and Massachusetts WinfFall games by single players, but they played hoping the jackpot would roll and benefited by the the inflated secondary prize payouts. There is a good possibility the 31.466,577 sold for last Friday's drawing will at least double for Tuesday's drawing and if not won, look for the buying frenzy to start.

That's exactly what l meant  Stack, but CT threw Jack into the conversation, and l simply rode the wave. My original thought on my post was from an experience l had when the jackpot was over or close to a billion dollars, you remember that. Well l was driving through Union City, stopped by a convenient store that afternoon, and there were 5 people in line, the guy at the counter had put down $2000 for the tickets, and the people in line were getting frustrated with waiting. I mean this guy was not asking for QP's - he came into the store with piles of playslips he had already filled out, and it took time to run those through. I know he did not win the top prize, cause one winner was from Southern Cal, the other winner was * Good Morning America, Kentucky/ Tennessee Robinson, the 3rd- No idea.

" There was probably never a jackpot winner named Floyd"- talk about putting a pox on your namesake there big fella.

Would you think I've jinxed everybody (or increased the chances of a rollover) if I pointed out that nobody has ever won a $470 million jackpot? Or that nobody has won a jackpot with a cash value if $265.3 million? Interestingly enough, somebody did win a jackpot with a cash value of $263.5 million a year and a half ago.

I know for absolute certainty that I've done a few things that were never done by anybody else, but there's already precedent for people with uncommon names winning record setting amounts. You remember Mavis, right?

Everyone here is posting that the jackpot won't be won or it's not enough.

Just remember:

• $2 and a dream!
• You have to be in it to win it!

 except I am posting that I will win it. I may be jinxing myself but so be it.

 You do know how to celebrate with all those players with balloons! Party!!

 Will you invite all of us to your Winner's party?

Music.... I think you left something out of your first sentence....Let me help you. I believe what you meant to say was

"Except I am posting that I know CDanaT will win it"... There, fixed it !!!! Looks MUCH better 

LOL!!  Please look at the "Man" in the mirror and believe that you are already the winner!

 Thank You for the help.

What do you think, music*....I say MM jackpot will grow to $485 for tomorrow night....

Sure CDanaT, there's always room for more to celebrate with.

Is that better?

Bleudog101, I think that you are within a good guess. A bit conservative but still good. 

Alex, I will take $477 Million for the win

Much Better !!! TheMeatman2005.  music*

CDanaT,  $477 is a very conservative guess. Whatever works for you. music*

l had a dream last night and a voice asked “ would you be happy with being part of this jackpot split? l think l said heck yeah ” - Then it dawned to me that l was probably regurgitating the thoughts of Eddie Brock in his conversation with Venom. 

* However, l would welcome being part of this jackpot split nonetheless.

Doesn’t seem to be going up yet...maybe no one cares and are not buying tickets lol

I have 2 identical lines... double the fun !

or twice the disappointment ???   Guess you will find out in about 33 hours.... Best of luck Kyle

Actually, I pick my own stuff, 

very math oriented, 

Even Odd sets, 

Prime Numbers, 

I annex multiples of 3 5 and 7, they rarely show, 

process of elimination, just have to avoid repeating numbers haha...

Am good with the second price with MULTIPLIER. Good luck to all.

Second place with Multiplier is something I've always wanted, or Powerplay.  With MM I cringe when folks don't spend the extra dollar and hit second place tier.  Too bad PB caps out @ $2 million regardless of what the Powerplay option is.

Do you want to be, "that someone who is amongst the wealthiest persons on the Planet"?

 Alas, you will not be a billionaire. Not yet. Wait for some more rollovers.

 A billionaire might look down upon the winner of $176,000,000.00 net. No jets for us. We must use flexjet for a private plane.

Hello Lottery Posters :) I'm a long time lurker, but a brand new poster... I've been following these threads for years (I feel like I know many of you), but have just now gotten around to signing up and making it official. Anyway, I don't mean to hijack this thread, but I wanted to say "hi", and to give my opinion that I think this Mega drawing will be $510M+ before tomorrow night. Believe it or not, but I am conservative, just hopeful!

Welcome Lowellm, $510 Million would be a nice amount to win.  Good luck to you and all players, may one of us win!

Thanks, lejardin! Best of luck to you also!

No! I do not need a big home, just a nice home. Small with some land attached. That would be good for me.

But the show is nice on how people splurge their winnings on an extravagant home?

Me too. I always aim for the 2nd prize.

"$485"  "$477"  "$510M+"

Don't hold your breath. The last one didn't really go up much from the original estimate. Most of what looked like a $15 million jump was interest that the winner won't see when they take the cash value. I'd guess that their original estimate for this one is also fairly close.

It may finish at a bit more than 470, but I doubt it will be much more. If it was going to reach 500 they'd almost certainly have bumped it up by this afternoon based on sales over the weekend.

LOL......(the photo).....

I am holding my breath until draw time. It will be increased then. 

 Will it be won tonight?  Here's to a Lottery Post member winning it!

Should a LP member win this or any jackpot music, l just can't see him or her returning to the forum and posting " Yes it was me, thanks & goodbye."

Unless you prepared to be the first.. 

Sure ya could NG,establish a new screen name from a different email address, take a photo of the winning ticket and on your 1st post in the caption under that photo put something like " old regular with a new lifestyle "...... Then never post again under that screen name

Ok but here's my question.....lets say I create a new account and then send Todd a message with a pic of the ticket saying that I won along with the state I won it in since that information at least will become known knowledge. Something like "Hey man this is a throwaway but one of us finally did it here's the proof" (Do this the day before I claim it). I personally don't see the harm in doing this. Could even do it from a public pc at the library. Create a new google account that already has the ticket pic saved in the email somewhere. It would be "cool" to see someone win finally and I don't see much risk coming out from it. Now I doubt I would post the picture myself even if using double throwaway accounts because I wouldn't want to show that info too early. At least let me do it the day before claiming so I could already have a plan. The real question to be asking is if you would do a AMA on reddit. I freaking love those.

Hey sorry for kind of copying what you wrote in response to noise-gate. In my defense I was "away from keyboard" talking to my girlfriend for like 10 minutes while figuring out what I wanted to write. By the time I finished, your post was already up here. 

 I meant to say something about this when I saw it but you know stuff. I never understand when people complain about things like this. I question rather the individual is just generally upset that other people would be excited about jackpots 350+. Or if they are attempting to educate us to save our money since most of us wont win a thing anyways. Either way to me the whole odds thing although it sounds correct it wont matter if you hit the prize goal you're aiming which is you know the whole point of playing anyways. If you are playing to hit the jackpot you have to play at least when it hits 400M since it rarely reaches to 600M and I think it goes from 400-600 in what like 5 drawings especially after the new changes. I get one ticket at 350M and two starting at 500. I would join a pot but alas I have no lottery friends....well besides you awesome folks. For this draw tonight I played in Maryland on my birthday using a quick pick. 

                                                                                Good luck everyone 

Yeah CDanaT, but that's a bit much. When you or should I say l, ever win, l want to get on with my life. When l win, l am gone. My last sign off will be " White Shores." The forum better connect the dots.

l definitely am not creating a new account. l win, l am gone!

  Good for you NG... I would enjoy departing with a little evil grin and mystery.... Sort of like the ole curmudgeon Ridgerunner did a few years back.....