Reno, NV United States
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February 25, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by bobby623 on Nov 19, 2018
Strange that Tucker Black and oates, both of whom say they reside in Nevada, a non-lottery state, are pushing Quick Picks.
Seems that are bad-mouthing every 'self' pick workout they can find.
Wonder what lottery they are working for.
Just saying ......
I don't "push" Quick Picks, I'm simply stating a fact that it doesn't matter whether you choose your own numbers or do QP; the probability of winning is exactly the same.
San Angelo, Texas United States
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January 31, 2003
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Quote: Originally posted by oate on Nov 19, 2018
I've never claimed to live in Nevada, you're thinking of someone else. Anyone can look at my posting history and figure out which state I live in, since it's the only state I ever talk about.
It seems if someone dares to disagree with you about anything you comfort yourself by telling yourself he's a secret agent of the lottery. Perhaps you should knit yourself a blanket instead, it would be warmer.
Sorry oate. My apology.
Guess I did get you mixed up with someone else.
Long time LP members learn that it's good to be suspicious of Newbies who seem to find fault with specific workouts.
General topics such as pros/cons of QPs vs Self Picks, Mathematics and other lottery related ideas and opinions are fair game.
However, if you want to criticize a specific method, such as the one Jade used, there is very good PM system for that.
If you don't have anything positive to say, just move on.
Otherwise, why not just post the specific systems you think will win, and reply to any queries that might be asked by folks who
believe you have something that could work for them.
Yes, I do get disagreeable at times. It comes with age.
Unfortunately, I don't know how to knit.
Kentucky United States
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February 14, 2006
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Nov 19, 2018
I don't "push" Quick Picks, I'm simply stating a fact that it doesn't matter whether you choose your own numbers or do QP; the probability of winning is exactly the same.
"the probability of winning is exactly the same."
If I were to create ten pick-3 lines using each to the 10 digits in each digit position, the odd against one of those lines hase 100% chance of matching the first digit and a 1 out of 100 chance of matching the other 2 digits.. If I were to ten QP lines those odds are exactly the same. The thing is ten lines of QP don't usually have all 10 digits in each digit position so there is around a 60% to 70% chance of matching the first digit and the same for the other 2 digit positions.
So is the probably of winning really the same?
*the 60%/70% is an estimate based on the results of several 10 drawings periods in severaly states.
Reno, NV United States
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February 25, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Nov 21, 2018
"the probability of winning is exactly the same."
If I were to create ten pick-3 lines using each to the 10 digits in each digit position, the odd against one of those lines hase 100% chance of matching the first digit and a 1 out of 100 chance of matching the other 2 digits.. If I were to ten QP lines those odds are exactly the same. The thing is ten lines of QP don't usually have all 10 digits in each digit position so there is around a 60% to 70% chance of matching the first digit and the same for the other 2 digit positions.
So is the probably of winning really the same?
*the 60%/70% is an estimate based on the results of several 10 drawings periods in severaly states.
It's the same if you buy just one ticket. If you buy more than one ticket, then, yes, the probability of winning something on one of the lines will be higher if you do self-picks (to avoid duplicates).
With Pick 3, this happens with a fairly low number of tickets as you noted. With MM or PB, that would require a much larger number of tickets to run into that problem. 10 or 20 tickets is going to be pretty much the same whether you do self-pick or quick pick for games that have a ridiculously low chance of winning.
San Angelo, Texas United States
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January 31, 2003
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If I might join in.
I'm a little confused about probability.
Yes, all of the balls in a drawing machine have same chance of getting through the exit gate.
However, the chance of a ball actually getting through the gate varies with ball locations when the gate opens. Correct??
The theory that all balls have the same chance and the reality are separate actions. Correct?
This differences amid the chaos in the drawing machine vessel is why the drawings are said to be random, pseudo-random or random enough for lottery play. Correct??
More
The folks who designed a game no doubt have charts showing how often something might happen during the drawings.
For example, the charts could say the the number 3 could show up 8 times per 1000 drawings.
However, what's the answer when 3 actually shows up 12 times during 1000 drawings?
Seems to me that the theoretical probability doesn't apply to real world results.
Seems the probability of specific numbers showing up in randomly generated data stream can't be known in advance.
Therefore, all the talk about the probability of this and that happening has no real application in lottery analysis, and is creating unnecessary confusion.
More
Seems lot of folks believe odds of winning and probability are the same.
The odds of winning are determined by the number of balls in the game matrix, and don't change regardless of the number of tickets a player might buy.
Of course, the more tickets one buys increases the chances of having a winner, but doesn't change the odds.
Therefore, seems saying that probability of winning a prize is the same as the odds of winning are the same would be incorrect.
Am I wrong??
Reno, NV United States
Member #173,296
February 25, 2016
337 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by bobby623 on Nov 21, 2018
If I might join in.
I'm a little confused about probability.
Yes, all of the balls in a drawing machine have same chance of getting through the exit gate.
However, the chance of a ball actually getting through the gate varies with ball locations when the gate opens. Correct??
The theory that all balls have the same chance and the reality are separate actions. Correct?
This differences amid the chaos in the drawing machine vessel is why the drawings are said to be random, pseudo-random or random enough for lottery play. Correct??
More
The folks who designed a game no doubt have charts showing how often something might happen during the drawings.
For example, the charts could say the the number 3 could show up 8 times per 1000 drawings.
However, what's the answer when 3 actually shows up 12 times during 1000 drawings?
Seems to me that the theoretical probability doesn't apply to real world results.
Seems the probability of specific numbers showing up in randomly generated data stream can't be known in advance.
Therefore, all the talk about the probability of this and that happening has no real application in lottery analysis, and is creating unnecessary confusion.
More
Seems lot of folks believe odds of winning and probability are the same.
The odds of winning are determined by the number of balls in the game matrix, and don't change regardless of the number of tickets a player might buy.
Of course, the more tickets one buys increases the chances of having a winner, but doesn't change the odds.
Therefore, seems saying that probability of winning a prize is the same as the odds of winning are the same would be incorrect.
Am I wrong??
Probability and odds are exactly the same thing. They are simply two different words used to describe the same thing, much like "fast" and "quickly" are different words but refer to the same thing (opposite of "slow" or "pokey"). There is a slight difference in that odds are written as the multiplicative inverse of probability, e.g. "odds of winning are 300 million to 1" and "probability of winning is 1 in 300 million"... but that does not change the fact that they are describing exactly the same thing.
When the probability of an event is 8 in 1000, and then you observe the actual is 12 of the last 1000, that does not mean the stated probability was wrong. What you are observing is variance. In a finite number of trials, the observed number is not necessarily going to be exactly equal to the expected value (expected value is probability times number of trials). As the number of trials increases, the difference between observed events and expected value gets smaller; this is known as the Central Limit Theorem aka the Law of Large Numbers.
If you flip a fair coin, you wouldn't expect the results to be HTHTHTHTHT etc forever. In fact that would be pretty suspicious, as if you are intentionally flipping heads followed by tails every time, which is not random at all.
Texas United States
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January 30, 2010
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Contrary to popular believe, both odds and probability can be heavily manipulated to the player's favor regardless of what the numbers read on Pick 3 and Pick 4. In my honest opinion, and this isn't a jab at anyone's skills, a proper understanding of how to maneuver numbers mathematically is a prerequisite to realizing this potential. However, there's also still one fundamental prerequisite to even the math concept which allows high success of a hit...and it's ignored. I've actually named my system after this principle.
Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....
There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.
Kentucky United States
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February 14, 2006
10,302 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Nov 22, 2018
Contrary to popular believe, both odds and probability can be heavily manipulated to the player's favor regardless of what the numbers read on Pick 3 and Pick 4. In my honest opinion, and this isn't a jab at anyone's skills, a proper understanding of how to maneuver numbers mathematically is a prerequisite to realizing this potential. However, there's also still one fundamental prerequisite to even the math concept which allows high success of a hit...and it's ignored. I've actually named my system after this principle.
Lots of people express probability as if there are more than one winning outcome. For instance while buying ten tickets gives a player 10 chances to win a jackpot, only one of those tickets can win. If there are 300 million possible outcomes the 10 chances combined have a one in 299.999,990 chance.
It's obvious or at least it should be that each possible outcome can be drawn, but it's still possible to use probability to play outcomes that have a "better chance" of being drawn. Six different digits were drawn in the first digit position in the last six pick-3 drawings so the odds of one of those six being drawn next is 6 ways to win compared to 4 ways to lose and 3 to 2 odds.
United States
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October 22, 2018
489 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Nov 23, 2018
Lots of people express probability as if there are more than one winning outcome. For instance while buying ten tickets gives a player 10 chances to win a jackpot, only one of those tickets can win. If there are 300 million possible outcomes the 10 chances combined have a one in 299.999,990 chance.
It's obvious or at least it should be that each possible outcome can be drawn, but it's still possible to use probability to play outcomes that have a "better chance" of being drawn. Six different digits were drawn in the first digit position in the last six pick-3 drawings so the odds of one of those six being drawn next is 6 ways to win compared to 4 ways to lose and 3 to 2 odds.
If there are N possible lottery number combinations and you buy T tickets for a single drawing, the probability of winning the jackpot is T/N, not 1 in N-T.
Think about it. If I purchased 100 million different combinations for a lottery drawing where there were 300 million combos, the probability of me winning the jackpot would be 1/3, not 1/200,000,000. (Also my chances of winning the award for worst investment of $100 million would be 110%.)
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,302 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by oate on Nov 25, 2018
If there are N possible lottery number combinations and you buy T tickets for a single drawing, the probability of winning the jackpot is T/N, not 1 in N-T.
Think about it. If I purchased 100 million different combinations for a lottery drawing where there were 300 million combos, the probability of me winning the jackpot would be 1/3, not 1/200,000,000. (Also my chances of winning the award for worst investment of $100 million would be 110%.)
You can call it 1 in 30 million if it makes you feel better but if you buy 10 tickets for a game with 300 million possible outcomes there are still 299,999,990 losing outcomes. And without duplicates, only 1 of your tickets can win the jackpot.
"If I purchased 100 million different combinations for a lottery drawing where there were 300 million combos, the probability of me winning the jackpot would be 1/3, not 1/200,000,000."
The ways to lose plus the number of chances must equal the the total possible outcomes so if you have 100 million ways to win vs 200 million ways to lose you have a 1/2 chance.