Kentucky United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Dec 1, 2018
"to 1" or "for 1" are normally used to express the win amount, not the probability of winning.
For example, in blackjack, a winning hand pays 1 to 1 a.k.a. even money. Bet $5, win $5 (and that's a net win $5, not $5-$5 for a net zero).
If you get a blackjack, you win "3 to 2" meaning your $5 bet wins $7.50 (3/2*5). The crummy blackjack games pay 6:5, where your $5 bet wins 6/5*5=$6. $6 is less than $7.50 which is why 6:5 BJ sucks and no one should ever play it.
With the lottery, every single prize is stated as "for 1", meaning you win whatever the amount says but you do not get your bet back, like you would in blackjack (or roulette or craps, any table game). For example, if a $1 scratch-off ticket has a lowest prize of $1, and you win that prize, you turn in your lottery ticket and get a $1 for it. It's the same dollar you paid for the ticket, so you broke even (a push, net win zero).
The probability of winning, on the hand, should not be stated as "to 1" or "for 1" because that confuses the terminology with the payoff. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, with 0 meaning totally impossible (e.g. roulette ball lands on 57), and 1 means guaranteed (e.g. one roll of craps results in a number between 2 and 12). A 50% probability is 0.5. Probability of winning MM/PB is approx. 1 in 300 million, or 3.33333333333333E-09.
At the end of the day odds mean nothing to the MM and PB players and that includes the chances of the jackpot being won. The KY pick-3 $1 straight pays $600 but because they keep the $1 bet, players don't get a W-2G.
New York, NY United States
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It seems that most want a sure thing with the idea of random. Well I guess the answer would be then you or Tony Montana haha. But I’ll give respect to Stack47. He’s always been good here. (Latin dative tense to/for)
Sometimes you do the right thing just because it’s right.
Life's a game of mathematics, if you can't figure that out I don't know what to tell you.
New York, NY United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Mr-B 216 on Nov 28, 2018
Can anyone agree with the following...
If I purchase 1 ticket, then I have a 1 in 300,000,000 chance of owning a winning ticket, and the one line ticket has a 1 in 300,000,000 chance of being the winning ticket.
If I purchase 10 tickets with 10 unique and different lines, then I have a 1 in 30,000,000 chance of owning a winning ticket, and each one of the 10, one line tickets, still has the 1 in 300,000,000 chance of being a winning ticket.
If I purchase 300,000,000 tickets with 300,000,000 unique and different lines, then I have a 1 in 1 chance of owning a winning ticket,andeach one of the 300,000,000, one line tickets, still has the 1 in 300,000,000 chance of being a winning ticket.
Sometimes you do the right thing just because it’s right.
Life's a game of mathematics, if you can't figure that out I don't know what to tell you.
Canada
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August 22, 2010
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Quote: Originally posted by grwurston on Nov 9, 2018
Why would someone have to spend $2400 a week to win $1200?
That would be $171 a drawing.
$1200 Is less then three P3 straight hits a week.
You could hit a $1 box on a P4 double 3 times and get $1200
You could get that amount several different ways.
And you don't have to win every drawing to do it. Just 2 or 3 out of 14.
Why would someone have to spend $2400 a week to win $1200?
The same reason why people spend $5000 in casinos to win $500. They see only the winning, not the cost.
You could hit a $1 box on a P4 double 3 times and get $1200
$1200 Is less then three P3 straight hits a week.
Occasionally this may happen, consistently - no. The keyword is `could`.
I ran a simulation for straight wins in Pick 3 (some time ago). It hit 6 straights in 30 plays. Wins $3000, cost $1800, profit $1200. Happened once in six months. Good for a simulation, not a real play, that was my lesson.
Canada
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Nov 9, 2018
I have zero faith that someone can win (net win, not gross win) $1,200 per week playing the lottery.
There are only three possibilities here:
1) spend $2,400 per week buying tickets and then ignore your losses when you claim that you "win" $1,200 (because spending $2,400 would result in $1,200 gross wins, on average, for a net loss of $1,200)
2) cheat by weighing down your favorite numbers
3) lying
I'm going with lying.
Agree, just a story, one of many I`ve seen on LP over the years.
In my system I can easily win $3500 per week. Don`t ask about the cost - I`m not going to tell you. But you don`t have to be extremely smart to easily figure that out.
United States
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Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Nov 7, 2018
Major Question:
What profitable reality winner is actually willing to share their overcoming the odds strategy/tactics with you (any game) ???
Inquiring minds , want to know.....
Just my two cents.
Players and predictors have different values. Most players just want someone to give them numbers to play and predictors want to master creating the best strategy possible. A predictor is only as good as their track record. I don't know any predictor besides myself that post their stats. With the way the lottery post stats page is set up there is no way to tell who is the best predictor is. You have to go back and look at the history of their post. If I'm going to invest my money in someone else's predictions I would want to know their overall track record and the track record of the particular strategy they are using to produce a prediction. What qualifies someone as the best predictor. A lottery predictor is no different from any other investor. For me at the end of the day it's all about the Return On Investment (ROI) you can produce over time.
I've evolved as a predictor. Looking back at my old post over 5 years ago, I can see why I've stopped sharing strategies and only post predictions. Some predictors may stop sharing what they know. At this point, I know if your results are undeniable then who cares what people think. I've come to realize that having goals and the best software possible are crucial when creating strategies. Sometimes I'll have ideas for strategies that require more information than my excel spreadsheet can handle so it may take a long until my software and my hardware catches up. It seems like creating some kind of super computer that can allow me to include more data and backtest faster is inevitable in order to develop a consistently accurate strategy over time. I never had a mentor and I've come to find that the best strategy that I can trust is my own.
The results will always let you know who knows what they are talking about and who is just pretending. I welcome and challenge anyone to post in my forum which requires you to make specific predictions and keep track of your predictions record so everyone can see your results. This is how we get better. We are all here for different reasons. Predicting has been a life changing experience and I've now gone from just playing for fun to playing for a consistent source of income. I feel predicting the lottery is the same as being a stock market day trader. Some people like the excitement of investing everyday. All I want is to create a strategy that myself and other people I share my predictions with can depend on day after day with the highest ROI possible. My minimum goal is a 20% ROI every 4 days. My maximum initial investment requires $2,000 to complete the forecast. You have to use common sense and do what you can afford. The way I play is not meant for the random everyday player with a few bucks to spare. You actually have to be able to risk $2,000, just like investing in certain arenas require you to be an accredited investor. You have to have investment parameters to make things more applicable to you, not everyone else. Most people only care about randomly winning big, however, I design my strategies based on the minimum ROI I can make at the end of the month. Playing like this requires risking more money upfront which also means you might want to have a highly accurate strategy or you'll eventually lose more than you win at the end of the year.
I stopped worrying so much about everyone else says and does and started focusing more on mastering predicting so I can reach my own full potential. Once I've backtested and have some kind of idea what the accuracy rate is for a particular strategy then I post a prediction. Most people don't backtest or even know what backtesting or ROI even means. Forget the fame I'd rather be anonymous and let my track record speak for me. You can choose to take advantage of my predictions or not. I'm working on creating software to sell to those who don't want to learn to and to give away to those would like to learn how to create their own strategies. I've went from being scatter brained creating many strategies over the years to now where I focus on mastering just one strategy and increasing the accuracy of it. A highly accurate investment strategy is like having a super power. You don't want to draw attention from the wrong people or give a super power to the wrong people, especially, these inexperienced rookies who are too lazy to put in work, or just not in the position to create or buy the software necessary to get the work done. I had to basically create another language and dish out a lot of money to design my own software over the years. I know how amazing it is to be able to consistently compound a 20% ROI every 4 days means. Most investment firms can't do that in a year. I do consider what would happen if too many people started winning, just like I consider how I was when I first started out broke, clueless and eager to learn. Instead of telling people my strategies every now and then I give out ways to help you develop your own. Posting predictions is just like stock market signal software. Posters are just letting you know when it's a good time to invest based on there own track record. The main thing from all of this is do you trust their track record. How do you choose the best investment firms to invest your money. If your favorite predictor doesn't keep track of their stats then why are they your favorite predictor. You might want to choose who you risk your money with better.
Until I'm done backtesting and developing my software enough to sell and freely give away to people then I'm not telling anyone my strategies. However, I don't mind giving out guidance on strategy develop for free and I also post predictions to help others make a consistent ROI for those who can easily afford the risk involved.
Step 1: Master a strategy. Step 2: Master wagering to compound winnings. Step 3: Master empowering the most people possible.
Canada
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August 22, 2010
193 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by LottoIntuitive on Dec 11, 2018
Just my two cents.
Players and predictors have different values. Most players just want someone to give them numbers to play and predictors want to master creating the best strategy possible. A predictor is only as good as their track record. I don't know any predictor besides myself that post their stats. With the way the lottery post stats page is set up there is no way to tell who is the best predictor is. You have to go back and look at the history of their post. If I'm going to invest my money in someone else's predictions I would want to know their overall track record and the track record of the particular strategy they are using to produce a prediction. What qualifies someone as the best predictor. A lottery predictor is no different from any other investor. For me at the end of the day it's all about the Return On Investment (ROI) you can produce over time.
I've evolved as a predictor. Looking back at my old post over 5 years ago, I can see why I've stopped sharing strategies and only post predictions. Some predictors may stop sharing what they know. At this point, I know if your results are undeniable then who cares what people think. I've come to realize that having goals and the best software possible are crucial when creating strategies. Sometimes I'll have ideas for strategies that require more information than my excel spreadsheet can handle so it may take a long until my software and my hardware catches up. It seems like creating some kind of super computer that can allow me to include more data and backtest faster is inevitable in order to develop a consistently accurate strategy over time. I never had a mentor and I've come to find that the best strategy that I can trust is my own.
The results will always let you know who knows what they are talking about and who is just pretending. I welcome and challenge anyone to post in my forum which requires you to make specific predictions and keep track of your predictions record so everyone can see your results. This is how we get better. We are all here for different reasons. Predicting has been a life changing experience and I've now gone from just playing for fun to playing for a consistent source of income. I feel predicting the lottery is the same as being a stock market day trader. Some people like the excitement of investing everyday. All I want is to create a strategy that myself and other people I share my predictions with can depend on day after day with the highest ROI possible. My minimum goal is a 20% ROI every 4 days. My maximum initial investment requires $2,000 to complete the forecast. You have to use common sense and do what you can afford. The way I play is not meant for the random everyday player with a few bucks to spare. You actually have to be able to risk $2,000, just like investing in certain arenas require you to be an accredited investor. You have to have investment parameters to make things more applicable to you, not everyone else. Most people only care about randomly winning big, however, I design my strategies based on the minimum ROI I can make at the end of the month. Playing like this requires risking more money upfront which also means you might want to have a highly accurate strategy or you'll eventually lose more than you win at the end of the year.
I stopped worrying so much about everyone else says and does and started focusing more on mastering predicting so I can reach my own full potential. Once I've backtested and have some kind of idea what the accuracy rate is for a particular strategy then I post a prediction. Most people don't backtest or even know what backtesting or ROI even means. Forget the fame I'd rather be anonymous and let my track record speak for me. You can choose to take advantage of my predictions or not. I'm working on creating software to sell to those who don't want to learn to and to give away to those would like to learn how to create their own strategies. I've went from being scatter brained creating many strategies over the years to now where I focus on mastering just one strategy and increasing the accuracy of it. A highly accurate investment strategy is like having a super power. You don't want to draw attention from the wrong people or give a super power to the wrong people, especially, these inexperienced rookies who are too lazy to put in work, or just not in the position to create or buy the software necessary to get the work done. I had to basically create another language and dish out a lot of money to design my own software over the years. I know how amazing it is to be able to consistently compound a 20% ROI every 4 days means. Most investment firms can't do that in a year. I do consider what would happen if too many people started winning, just like I consider how I was when I first started out broke, clueless and eager to learn. Instead of telling people my strategies every now and then I give out ways to help you develop your own. Posting predictions is just like stock market signal software. Posters are just letting you know when it's a good time to invest based on there own track record. The main thing from all of this is do you trust their track record. How do you choose the best investment firms to invest your money. If your favorite predictor doesn't keep track of their stats then why are they your favorite predictor. You might want to choose who you risk your money with better.
Until I'm done backtesting and developing my software enough to sell and freely give away to people then I'm not telling anyone my strategies. However, I don't mind giving out guidance on strategy develop for free and I also post predictions to help others make a consistent ROI for those who can easily afford the risk involved.
A couple of comments on your post.
1) I don't believe that using only one prediction method, no matter how successful it appears, is the key to success. From November 2016 to October 2017 I ran a Pick 3 simulation on real numbers taken from Wisconsin Pick 3, to find out how prediction methods perform over time. A analysed about 15 methods and results were computed weekly. Only very rarely a method was the best performer from week to week, there were constant fluctuations between the winners. My conclusion was that relying on one method would not be successful.
2) I believe that using backtracks to verify any prediction methods for efficiency is essential before attempting actual playing. All methods constantly fluctuate in efficiency and it is necessary to know what the CURRENT situation is, not 2 weeks ago.
3) The only way of reliably evaluating any method's performance at any time is its CURRENT ROI, not the one from the past (again, differences can be substantial). Using ROI allows also for comparing different methods directly.
4) 20% ROI for Pick 3 seems rather a low target. People may hesitate to use software with such a low guarantee. Perhaps your backtracks can provide a more optimistic value.
5) Your initial pool of money for playing ($2000) appears to me a little high. I would start from $500 and fuel further playing from actual winnings. In 2014 I ran another simulations (but only for a month) and it demonstrated that it was possible to sustain playing this way (actually I ended up with a profit), although probably not for extended period of time. The simulation showed that making profit in Pick 3 is possible, although most likely not every month. Which brings us to 6).
6) As to playing goals my strategy is always to MAXIMIZE ROI. Everything else is always subjected to this goal. Which sometimes means that, if the prospects for winning are poor (all systems down and struggling) I have to sit put and skip playing until the prognosis improves (based on backtrack indicators). Same as in investing (bulls and bears, which also come with indicators). On the other side, if I am in the middle of a winning streak (backtracks will tell me that) I would be tempted (and actually did it in the simulation) to double bets - which was probably the main reason for the profit.
Good luck with your software project. If you believe the software provides value to customers why not to monetize it? After all you spent time and effort to create it. It must be worth something. On LP many people expect something for nothing. Usually they get what they paid for.
United States
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August 22, 2013
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Hidden in the archives of Lottery Folklore is the story of Joan Ginther, a math-savvy student of Statistics with a Ph.D from Stanford University. It has been said by some that she not only figured out the algorithm used in printing Scratch-off tickets, but that she also had knowledge of the Lottery Commission's method of distributing the cards to the stores. Of course this is all speculation or is it ? Interested parties want to know !
Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors. Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people. These forces would also argue that they have a winning MIRACLE system; that is, until asked to post numbers before the drawing !
Texas United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
17,758 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by str8ca$hhomie on Dec 12, 2018
Hidden in the archives of Lottery Folklore is the story of Joan Ginther, a math-savvy student of Statistics with a Ph.D from Stanford University. It has been said by some that she not only figured out the algorithm used in printing Scratch-off tickets, but that she also had knowledge of the Lottery Commission's method of distributing the cards to the stores. Of course this is all speculation or is it ? Interested parties want to know !
It didn't hurt that she first won a Texas Lotto jackpot providing the money needed to buy all those $20 scratchers.
United States
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March 12, 2013
17,083 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by aquariuslottery on Dec 12, 2018
A couple of comments on your post.
1) I don't believe that using only one prediction method, no matter how successful it appears, is the key to success. From November 2016 to October 2017 I ran a Pick 3 simulation on real numbers taken from Wisconsin Pick 3, to find out how prediction methods perform over time. A analysed about 15 methods and results were computed weekly. Only very rarely a method was the best performer from week to week, there were constant fluctuations between the winners. My conclusion was that relying on one method would not be successful.
2) I believe that using backtracks to verify any prediction methods for efficiency is essential before attempting actual playing. All methods constantly fluctuate in efficiency and it is necessary to know what the CURRENT situation is, not 2 weeks ago.
3) The only way of reliably evaluating any method's performance at any time is its CURRENT ROI, not the one from the past (again, differences can be substantial). Using ROI allows also for comparing different methods directly.
4) 20% ROI for Pick 3 seems rather a low target. People may hesitate to use software with such a low guarantee. Perhaps your backtracks can provide a more optimistic value.
5) Your initial pool of money for playing ($2000) appears to me a little high. I would start from $500 and fuel further playing from actual winnings. In 2014 I ran another simulations (but only for a month) and it demonstrated that it was possible to sustain playing this way (actually I ended up with a profit), although probably not for extended period of time. The simulation showed that making profit in Pick 3 is possible, although most likely not every month. Which brings us to 6).
6) As to playing goals my strategy is always to MAXIMIZE ROI. Everything else is always subjected to this goal. Which sometimes means that, if the prospects for winning are poor (all systems down and struggling) I have to sit put and skip playing until the prognosis improves (based on backtrack indicators). Same as in investing (bulls and bears, which also come with indicators). On the other side, if I am in the middle of a winning streak (backtracks will tell me that) I would be tempted (and actually did it in the simulation) to double bets - which was probably the main reason for the profit.
Good luck with your software project. If you believe the software provides value to customers why not to monetize it? After all you spent time and effort to create it. It must be worth something. On LP many people expect something for nothing. Usually they get what they paid for.
Aquarius
Ultimately it's achieve your goals and get results however you get them. I encourage you to post at least 10 detailed predictions using your best strategies in my forum so we can see your track record over time. There's nothing better than being able to provide undeniable evidence. Feel free to invite any predictor you feel is able to reach the low target of a 20% ROI within 10 predictions.
Step 1: Master a strategy. Step 2: Master wagering to compound winnings. Step 3: Master empowering the most people possible.
Canada
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August 22, 2010
193 Posts
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Hi lottointuitive,
Thank you for the invitation but at the moment I will not be getting involved into new simulations as they are time consuming and I just started a new Pick 3 project which I want to complete before spring (yes, it may take that long as I'm diving into unknown waters of Pick 3 predictions that I've never looked at before).
However I did run a simulation for Pick 3 on real numbers for almost a year from November 2016 to October 2017 (49 weeks). The weekly results were recorded as snapshots from the cell phone. As the standard member I don't have the privilege to post pics on LP but I did it on Pinterest under Lotterix. If it is of any interest to you take a peak at your convenience. They are the evidence you mention and there is no better evidence than visuals.
Well, it should be abundantly clear by now, that those in the 'KNOW' - virtually can't or won't spill the Secret of 'how to' beans with us :-(
A small cadre of successful Vegas low pro players would rather give up their children first, putting a 45 caliber gun to the head or court warrants have been tried without results
Now, hypothetically, after all it took to finally overcome the odds, the trials & errors effort etc, would you actually share, by serving it all up on a silver plate ??
Eddessa_Knight with Light
PS:
Just one Old casino motto: "Never smarten up a dummy!"
United States
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November 20, 2018
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Nov 9, 2018
I have zero faith that someone can win (net win, not gross win) $1,200 per week playing the lottery.
There are only three possibilities here:
1) spend $2,400 per week buying tickets and then ignore your losses when you claim that you "win" $1,200 (because spending $2,400 would result in $1,200 gross wins, on average, for a net loss of $1,200)
2) cheat by weighing down your favorite numbers
3) lying
I'm going with lying.
I concur. There's nobody here that's good enough to win that much, but fake winners are abound.