Hi all
The question pops up every now and then about how to apply the data our analysis gives us.
Is it better to set a trap and play it a few games or try to pin down the rogues day to day. The
game is random and even the best analysis can fail. This is what I mean when I say that it's
easy to select the best values to play, just don't count on them showing in the next drawing.
This is why all prediction tools fail regardless of the methods they incorporate. It's not that the
tool that fails, it's that the the choices are history based. We have all heard many times that the
next draw has nothing to do with the what happened in the past.
Why then even build a lottery tool some might ask. Even though the next draw has nothing to
do with past draws it does have to follow certain rules. These rules are written in stone so to
say and are a product of the games matrix. Anytime we reduce the field of possible choices we
also reduce the number of wrong choices that can be made.
The patterns / clusters of rogues values we see are products of the matrix and are quantitative
down to the last drop. It's the permutations that give us such a hard time. There are 4 combos
if picking 3 of 4 rogue values, 012-013-023-123, there are 6 pairings, 01-02-03-12-13-23 and
only one 4 digit combo, 1234. We also must consider the three single rogue value draws, 00000,
11111 and 22222. The next draw will fall under one of the groups, singles, pairs, trays or quads.
Each of these groups take up so many places within the matrix and each sub group also takes up
so many places within it's parent group. For pick-3 we have 1000 possible rogue strings, one for
each 3-digit set of numbers. Each rogue string has odds of showing 1 in every 1000 draws exactly
the same as any 3-number set.
With this said, we must decide if it's easier to pick a rogue value than a normal digit. When I first built
the rogue tool the idea behind it was very simple. If I choose 3 rogue values and leave the others wild
will I win more often.
Normal pick-3 Rogue pick-3
1st number 1 in 10 1st number 1 in 4
2nd number 1 in 10 2nd number 1 in 4
3rd number 1 in 10 3rd number 1 in 4
10*10*10= 1000 4*4*4= 64
You are much more likely to hit 3 rogue values than you are to pick 3 normal digits. However looking
at the cost of play the normal pick-3 set would cost $0.50/$1.00 vs the rogues 16 lines for $8.00 or
$16.00 play. If we pick 16 normal pick-3 lines then the odds would be 1000/16=62.5 which is lower
than the 1 in 64 for the 3 rogue setup but the rogue setup will not always produce 16 lines based on
the digits used and so the odds are exactly the same overall. As you can see there is no advantage
with respect to odds when we consider the cost of play. If however 16 lines does not scare you off
than the rogue comes out ahead. This is a fixed example using 3 rogue values but the program allows
the user a universe of rogue setup types.
So, how do we pick the correct values to play, in short, we make the best guess we can based on what
we know about the games matrix. It takes some time to pick up on all the little things but if we stick with
it your selections will get better. If you find your self not making any progress then it's most likely due to
approaching the rogue with preconceived notions and making the data agree what you think and not going
with what the data says. The second reason IMHO, is that your not taking the time to really look at how the
values cluster, very important.
RL
