All data lies! Depending on the number of draws it might be a small lie, or one that's an outright boldfaced lie. Either way its likely giving the player a confidence in his mathematics when he/she should be questioning the empirical truth of the data.
Take, for example the Texas Pick 3. Looking at pairs we find 58, 48, 26, 28, 23 to be the most consistent hitters throughout the total number of draws. They average a hit between every 17 to 18 games. And we see that each has been out of play more than 100 draws at least once throughout the history. Currently none are out an extensive time.
Draws |
X1 |
X2 |
Hits |
Ave |
Long |
Curr |
19828 |
5 |
8 |
1140 |
17.39298 |
110 |
4 |
19828 |
4 |
8 |
1133 |
17.50044 |
142 |
16 |
19828 |
2 |
6 |
1132 |
17.5159 |
121 |
13 |
19828 |
2 |
8 |
1115 |
17.78296 |
142 |
1 |
19828 |
2 |
3 |
1111 |
17.84698 |
154 |
6 |
But what happens when we contract the data base? How about we look at the top 5 using only 5000 draws?
Draws |
X1 |
X2 |
Hits |
Ave |
Long |
Curr |
5001 |
2 |
3 |
306 |
64.79739 |
100 |
6 |
5001 |
2 |
6 |
294 |
67.44218 |
83 |
13 |
5001 |
5 |
8 |
293 |
67.67236 |
86 |
4 |
5001 |
7 |
9 |
291 |
68.13746 |
90 |
0 |
5001 |
1 |
4 |
289 |
68.60899 |
105 |
8 |
Nothing stays the same. Pairs rise and fall. The average timeout balloons to almost 4 times the overall while the longest out times had been reduced.
Make no sense does it?
Let's try 3000 draws...maybe that will give us a better idea of what to expect....
Draws |
X1 |
X2 |
Hits |
Ave |
Long |
Curr |
3001 |
2 |
3 |
191 |
103.8115 |
100 |
6 |
3001 |
5 |
8 |
191 |
103.8115 |
68 |
4 |
3001 |
2 |
9 |
181 |
109.547 |
92 |
1 |
3001 |
2 |
6 |
180 |
110.1556 |
83 |
13 |
3001 |
1 |
4 |
179 |
110.771 |
66 |
8 |
My bad. That didn't help us at all! While the pairs essentially stayed the same (29 jumps on the list), even if the order changed, the Average hit time is almost double that of 5000 draws while the longest out is slightly less overall. We could do 1500 draws......
Draws |
X1 |
X2 |
Hits |
Ave |
Long |
Curr |
1501 |
1 |
7 |
97 |
204.4124 |
86 |
2 |
1501 |
3 |
6 |
94 |
210.9362 |
128 |
128 |
1501 |
2 |
3 |
93 |
213.2043 |
100 |
6 |
1501 |
5 |
8 |
93 |
213.2043 |
68 |
4 |
1501 |
4 |
6 |
92 |
215.5217 |
111 |
32 |
All of a sudden we have different pairs rising to the top and the explosion of the average time out of each pair.
What we consider a stable game ruled by mathematics is mutable and unstable, changing minutely with every draw which is multiplied over the 100, 1000, 5000, 10000, etc.
The data lies! Use it at your own risk.......
G