Can you enumerate in a list the things that work most of the time in lotteries?Prev Topic Next Topic

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Player649

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Dec 13, 2021, 1:27 am

Quote: Originally posted by ddude003 on Dec 12, 2021
I find it interesting that someone would be looking for 80%... What is the usual house edge??? Can we do a little better than the house edge going forward towards a more decent win...

What is the usual house edge???

You can easily calculate house edge for each jackpot lottery. This is how I did it for my lottery which is 649.

Win level Prize Win chance Profit ratio Cumulative profit ratio
2+ $5 1 in 81.2 0.062 0.062
3 $10 1 in 56.7 0.176 0.238
4 $75 1 in 1033 0.073 0.311
5 $750 1 in 55492 0.014 0.325
5+ $75K 1 in 2330636 0.032 0.357

For percentage multiply the last column by 100.

I use these ratios as yardsticks for comparing my systems monetary performance. Anything above 35.7% ROI means I'm beating the house edge.

I did not include the jackpot ROI. Who cares!
Stat$talker

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Dec 13, 2021, 12:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Player649 on Dec 13, 2021
What is the usual house edge???

You can easily calculate house edge for each jackpot lottery. This is how I did it for my lottery which is 649.

Win level Prize Win chance Profit ratio Cumulative profit ratio
2+ $5 1 in 81.2 0.062 0.062
3 $10 1 in 56.7 0.176 0.238
4 $75 1 in 1033 0.073 0.311
5 $750 1 in 55492 0.014 0.325
5+ $75K 1 in 2330636 0.032 0.357

For percentage multiply the last column by 100.

I use these ratios as yardsticks for comparing my systems monetary performance. Anything above 35.7% ROI means I'm beating the house edge.

I did not include the jackpot ROI. Who cares!

"For percentage multiply the last column"

..whut Columns?...

Your post's Margins are just az sloppy az yo thinking...uneven lines..etc...

A splash of dis hea, and a splash of dat there.. indicative of drowning in a Sea ov Conceptual understanding that's waaay over yo head..

Jacque Cousteau... blowin buBbLeZ.

-Stat$talker

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
Stack47

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Dec 13, 2021, 5:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by ddude003 on Dec 12, 2021
I find it interesting that someone would be looking for 80%... What is the usual house edge??? Can we do a little better than the house edge going forward towards a more decent win...

The house edge is usually the difference between the actual odds and the payoff odds and it really applies more to the lotteries than to individual players. Over time if they pay $500 for a win that has 1000 to 1 odds, their house edge is slightly over 50% because they keep the dollar bet and the player wins $499.

It's not impossible, but very very difficult to pick one pick-3 digit out of three in 80% of the drawings. And a bet on that digit will still have to overcome the 50% house edge.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
eddessaknight

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Dec 13, 2021, 6:18 pm

Thanks Stack, most astute commentary , informative. & useful for practical understanding for odds, etc

P.S.

Times when the odds can deceive player
rcbbuckeye

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Dec 13, 2021, 6:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dr san on Dec 9, 2021
Can you enumerate in a list the things that work most of the time in lotteries?
80% already serves
example= filters, strategies, probabilities etc. that works most of the time, ok 100% does not exist, but most of the time is good enough, a balance
since it's the end of the year about what works and what doesn't, please

My list has only one item

LUCK

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
rdgrnr

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The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
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Dec 13, 2021, 6:27 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Dec 13, 2021
My list has only one item

LUCK

Gotta hand it to ya, Buck.

You're absolutely right.
Player649

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Dec 13, 2021, 11:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Dec 13, 2021
"For percentage multiply the last column"

..whut Columns?...

Your post's Margins are just az sloppy az yo thinking...uneven lines..etc...

A splash of dis hea, and a splash of dat there.. indicative of drowning in a Sea ov Conceptual understanding that's waaay over yo head..

Jacque Cousteau... blowin buBbLeZ.

-Stat$talker

Don't give me stomach ache again, Stat$.

Can't you see that you make the least sense when you criticize others?

Better stick to your divine probability stuff and hating LOs, and try not to oversmart yourself so blatantly. Does not improve your standings on LP.
Stat$talker

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Dec 14, 2021, 1:39 am

Quote: Originally posted by Player649 on Dec 13, 2021
Don't give me stomach ache again, Stat$.

Can't you see that you make the least sense when you criticize others?

Better stick to your divine probability stuff and hating LOs, and try not to oversmart yourself so blatantly. Does not improve your standings on LP.

"Better stick to your divine probability stuff and hating LOs, and try not to oversmart yourself so blatantly. Does not improve your standings on LP."

You know, YOU really ASSUME alot...but the fact iz,.. I don't care whut ANYONE on LP thinkz ov Me..in particularly YOU..!! So...

GIT IN LINE.. PLAYA HATER

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
Stack47

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Dec 14, 2021, 8:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Dec 13, 2021
Thanks Stack, most astute commentary , informative. & useful for practical understanding for odds, etc

P.S.

Times when the odds can deceive player

Not only do odds deceive players, some use the deception to justify their bet. The usual payoff for $2 straight bets on a pick-3 number is $1000 and someone could call it an even money payoff because the odds against are 1000 to 1. Betting more has zero effect on the odds of winning, but can greatly effect the overall profit.

A case can be made that buying 100 tickets for a game with 300 million outcomes lowers the odds to 3 million to 1, but usually the rest of the story is ignored. Without duplicates, only one those 100 tickets can win the jackpot so IMO a better way to express the odds is saying every extra ticket a player buys reduces the number of overall outcomes by that number. Purchasing 100 tickets reduces the number of outcomes by 100 and there still 299,999,900 they don't have. But hey if they feel better saying they have a 1 in 300 chance, go for it.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
Soledad

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Dec 15, 2021, 10:58 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Dec 10, 2021
"Seems as if the only thing you are saying is that gamblers are no different than junkies."

Will you explain how YOU arrived at such a summary.. compared to whut I said?

I don't see your analogy...Now, there are 2 types of Gamblers.. soundz az tho YOU'RE making the comparison of an habitual Gambler(can't conttol themselves).. but then there's the Methodical Gambler.. which I'd say are mostly here on LP..

BTW.. feel free to use all of a quote , or the 1st part of... It's up to..YOU

Eh forget it.

That saying is used for junkies where I come from. Addicts.

Sometimes you do the right thing just because it’s right.

Life's a game of mathematics, if you can't figure that out I don't know what to tell you.
Speler

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Dec 15, 2021, 1:10 pm

Deel 2: dobbelsteen en lotto

http://john-solitude.blogspot.com/2013/11/hoe-de-lotto-winnen-deel-2.html
Stat$talker

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Dec 15, 2021, 6:51 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Soledad on Dec 15, 2021
Eh forget it.

That saying is used for junkies where I come from. Addicts.

"That saying is used for junkies where I come from. Addicts."

Sorry bout that.. I wuz unaware..

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
ancient40

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Dec 15, 2021, 8:21 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Dec 14, 2021
"Better stick to your divine probability stuff and hating LOs, and try not to oversmart yourself so blatantly. Does not improve your standings on LP."

You know, YOU really ASSUME alot...but the fact iz,.. I don't care whut ANYONE on LP thinkz ov Me..in particularly YOU..!! So...

GIT IN LINE.. PLAYA HATER

Dat's right $hatzz you tellum. Now show-um sum ov dat gud ole statistical probable anything maff, to put him in his place. Don't foeged two juzz splain it to hem's how dat-beez possible

{probability is NO guarantee} only your mounting losses will be Guaranteed

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that the probability for an outcome after a series of outcomes is not the same as the probability for a single outcome. The gambler's fallacy is real and true in cases where the events in question are independent and identically distributed.
Stat$talker

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Dec 16, 2021, 12:47 am

Quote: Originally posted by ancient40 on Dec 15, 2021
Dat's right $hatzz you tellum. Now show-um sum ov dat gud ole statistical probable anything maff, to put him in his place. Don't foeged two juzz splain it to hem's how dat-beez possible

GIT GOOONE..!!

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!
Speler

Belgium
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April 17, 2021
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Dec 16, 2021, 7:52 am

That's it. First you had Corona and after that you had Budweiser. You ended with mojitos and vodka. ...