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Stack47

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Feb 1, 2023, 5:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Feb 1, 2023
Hiz problem iz that ..he thinkz Probabilitiez & Oddz are 1: the same...

"whut'z not being properly done iz...framing this particular issue at hand"

My first example was the probability of one of 1000 QPs.

And just based on the same formula on many sources, "number of favorable outcomes" (1000) divided by the "total number of outcomes" (292,201,338). Shouldn't be very difficult to do the math on any calculator and get 0.00000342229 and a 0.000342229% probability of one of the 1000 QPs winning the jackpot.

How is that framed wrong?

"Hiz problem iz that ..he thinkz Probabilitiez & Oddz are 1: the same"

Actually Gary used the term "chances". Why are tying to make it look like Gary said something he didn't?

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
Stat$talker

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Feb 1, 2023, 6:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Feb 1, 2023
"whut'z not being properly done iz...framing this particular issue at hand"

My first example was the probability of one of 1000 QPs.

And just based on the same formula on many sources, "number of favorable outcomes" (1000) divided by the "total number of outcomes" (292,201,338). Shouldn't be very difficult to do the math on any calculator and get 0.00000342229 and a 0.000342229% probability of one of the 1000 QPs winning the jackpot.

How is that framed wrong?

"Hiz problem iz that ..he thinkz Probabilitiez & Oddz are 1: the same"

Actually Gary used the term "chances". Why are tying to make it look like Gary said something he didn't?

Wasn't tawkin bout Garyo1954..or you.

I'm on Yo side..believe it or not...
Stack47

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Feb 1, 2023, 6:08 pm

Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Feb 1, 2023
That new Canadian math he's using is going to confuse the world. But I really don't know f he doesn't understand or doesn't want to understand.

Here's a 4 by 5 grid with 20 numbers. I marked 2 yellow.

We have a 1/20 chance of hitting 305 and a 1/20 chance of hitting 260.
1/20 + 1/20 = 2/20 chance.

Mathematically we can reduce that 2/20 to 1/10, but it doesn't change the grid. We still have 20 squares, each with an equal chance of being drawn. And each of the 20 have a 1/20 chance.

I don't know how to make it any simpler. What he chooses to believe doesn't change a thing.

G

Found a manuscript, "Confusion Between Odds and Probability, a Pandemic?" in the Journal of Statistics Education published by American Statistical Association. Hopefully that will help.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
Stack47

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Feb 1, 2023, 6:29 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Feb 1, 2023
Wasn't tawkin bout Garyo1954..or you.

I'm on Yo side..believe it or not...

This must be the "misunderstood what was said or asked" thread. Maybe ChatCPI got it started by something it didn't say.

Choose numbers strategically: Some people choose to use lucky numbers, birthdays, or other personal significance when choosing their lottery numbers. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that these methods increase your chances of winning, but they can be fun and add an element of personal significance to the game.

It should have said "increase or decrease" the chances. There should be no misunderstanding on "It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
winoneday

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Feb 1, 2023, 6:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Feb 1, 2023
That new Canadian math he's using is going to confuse the world. But I really don't know f he doesn't understand or doesn't want to understand.

Here's a 4 by 5 grid with 20 numbers. I marked 2 yellow.

We have a 1/20 chance of hitting 305 and a 1/20 chance of hitting 260.
1/20 + 1/20 = 2/20 chance.

Mathematically we can reduce that 2/20 to 1/10, but it doesn't change the grid. We still have 20 squares, each with an equal chance of being drawn. And each of the 20 have a 1/20 chance.

I don't know how to make it any simpler. What he chooses to believe doesn't change a thing.

G

There is no such thing as Canadian math. Of course, you already know that. You are just sticking to your plan of insulting people you do not agree with.

When you wrote: "But I really don't know f he doesn't understand or doesn't want to understand.", you are also referring to Todd since Todd and I agree 100% on how to calculate odds of winning the jackpot when multiple different tickets are bought.

The English language appears to be a big barrier in gaining an understanding.

Some have stated chances, odds and probability are all different. I do not agree but that does not matter. We have a universal and very precise language and that is the language of mathematics. That is why I always express the odds as 1 in X where X is a number. A precise number.

So I recommend, drop the insults and stick to the language of mathematics. The numbers tell the whole story. And here are the numbers:

1,000 different tickets gives odds of 1 in 292,201 of winning the Powerball jackpot.
Stat$talker

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Feb 1, 2023, 6:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Feb 1, 2023
This must be the "misunderstood what was said or asked" thread. Maybe ChatCPI got it started by something it didn't say.

Choose numbers strategically: Some people choose to use lucky numbers, birthdays, or other personal significance when choosing their lottery numbers. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that these methods increase your chances of winning, but they can be fun and add an element of personal significance to the game.

It should have said "increase or decrease" the chances. There should be no misunderstanding on "It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

Yea..maybe
Coin Toss

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Feb 1, 2023, 7:29 pm

Chieu hoy

Vetmnes for I give up

According to a lot of the reasoning here people seem to not want to believe that every single line of numbers played us up against the same jackpot odds of that line of numbers matching the drawn set of jackpot numbers and there is only one winning set of six drawn.

I wish you all luck.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Todd

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Feb 1, 2023, 7:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Feb 1, 2023
Chieu hoy

Vetmnes for I give up

According to a lot of the reasoning here people seem to not want to believe that every single line of numbers played us up against the same jackpot odds of that line of numbers matching the drawn set of jackpot numbers and there is only one winning set of six drawn.

I wish you all luck.

My take is that nobody thinks playing a number of tickets makes Powerball easy to win. The issue being argued about is how odds work. I have already explained how it works here: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/344172/7169156

That explanation is how odds and math actually work. If some people want to make up their own alternate version of math and say that buying 50 tickets doesn't make the odds of winning 1 in 5.8 million, they have to understand they might as well also say that 1+1 is not 2.

I tried to show in the above link how stating the correct odds does not somehow make winning Powerball easy. (Which you referenced.)

I have come back to this thread a few times to try to set the record straight, because it's important that people who don't go around all day thinking about this stuff not be misled by anyone stating misinformation here.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
ah1963

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Feb 1, 2023, 9:39 pm

People are confused here, odd of each ticket never change. But the odd of winning increases for the person who buy multiple tickets. If I buy multiple tickets probability of winning for me will increase with increasing number of tickets, but odd for individual ticket will remain the same.
Stack47

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Feb 2, 2023, 1:11 am

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Feb 1, 2023
My take is that nobody thinks playing a number of tickets makes Powerball easy to win. The issue being argued about is how odds work. I have already explained how it works here: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/344172/7169156

That explanation is how odds and math actually work. If some people want to make up their own alternate version of math and say that buying 50 tickets doesn't make the odds of winning 1 in 5.8 million, they have to understand they might as well also say that 1+1 is not 2.

I tried to show in the above link how stating the correct odds does not somehow make winning Powerball easy. (Which you referenced.)

I have come back to this thread a few times to try to set the record straight, because it's important that people who don't go around all day thinking about this stuff not be misled by anyone stating misinformation here.

It looks like they are using the house or casino "odds against" by subtracting the number of favorable outcomes from the total number of outcomes. In Gary's example they would probably say the odds against are 18 to 1.

"Some people have something to say while other people feel the need to say something"
Todd

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Feb 2, 2023, 6:16 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Feb 2, 2023
It looks like they are using the house or casino "odds against" by subtracting the number of favorable outcomes from the total number of outcomes. In Gary's example they would probably say the odds against are 18 to 1.

But those are not the odds against. It is incorrect math to say that.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
Soledad

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Feb 2, 2023, 7:12 am

To explain my point of view is this, even if you buy 50 different tickets with different combinations so you can to say I have this one or this version of numbers as well as this one, doesn't change the fact that each individual ticket has the same odds. That's what I was referring to when I said bending and twisting. And yeah life is a game of math, so you spend 50 dollars thinking you have a better chance, but in reality you have the same chance as the person buying 1. Except the person buying one only lost 2 dollars as oppose to the person buying 50 who lost 100 dollars. That's what I have been saying about math. Improving your chances does not improve your 'candystand'. And I've heard this and seen it time and time again with practically every jackpot. Which is why the people spending 100 dollars on the big jackpots don't bother every single time. Because they realize they have already lost and it's not worth it to lose again. But the lotteries realize this, all the so called sharks, and they act accordingly and make money accordingly, unlike all the many millions that play and dont. Not a pessimist, but perhaps a pragmatic. Math either makes a difference or it doesn't. Which way you go is your choice. IN THE END, which is all that matters. So best of luck whatever

Sometimes you do the right thing just because it’s right.

Life's a game of mathematics, if you can't figure that out I don't know what to tell you.
Cmoore50

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Feb 2, 2023, 4:12 pm

The real question to all is..What are you doing to improve your chances of hitting a 4/5, 5/6 or jackpot? How are you improving your data that helps you see bad number combination/bad lines. If you aren't trying to improve your data each day, week or month. Then you aren't getting any closer.

GET IT DONE
Coin Toss

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Feb 2, 2023, 4:54 pm

Reply to Todd and anyone else who thinks playing more tickets decreases the odds.........

I'll try one more time. On any given jackpot drawing let's comsider all the tickets played as having been played by one player.

Thar being the case, considering different apptoaches posted in this thread;

1. Where are the jackpots? (Not geographically)

2. why are there so few?

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
TheseStars

BOX HIT WINNER!

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Feb 2, 2023, 5:41 pm
Quote: Originally posted by BobP on Jan 26, 2023
This past week chatbot ChatGPT has been in the news for writing school papers and giving other demonstrations of how intelligent it is compared to us shaved apes. So, I went through the sign up login process and asked ChatGPT how to win the lottery, about wheeling and assigning weights to numbers based on previous performance, this is what I got back.

What can you tell me about how to win the lottery?

"Winning the lottery is largely a matter of luck. The odds of winning vary depending on the lottery game and the number of tickets sold. However, there are a few things you can do to increase your chances of winning.

Buy more tickets: The more tickets you buy, the greater your chances of winning.

Join a lottery pool: Joining a group of people who buy tickets together can increase your chances of winning.

Choose numbers strategically: Some people choose to use lucky numbers, birthdays, or other personal significance when choosing their lottery numbers. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that these methods increase your chances of winning, but they can be fun and add an element of personal significance to the game.

Choose games with better odds: Some lottery games have better odds of winning than others. Research the odds of different games before you decide which one to play.

It's important to remember that the lottery is a form of gambling, and it should be played responsibly. It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

---------------------

What secrets can you tell me about how to win the lottery?

"There are no guaranteed ways to win the lottery, as it is a game of chance. The odds of winning a lottery depend on the number of tickets sold and the specific rules of the game. However, there are a few things that people do in an attempt to increase their chances of winning:

Buying multiple tickets: The more tickets you buy, the greater your chances of winning.

Joining a lottery pool: Joining a group of people who buy tickets together can increase your chances of winning.

Choosing numbers strategically: Some people choose to use lucky numbers, birthdays, or other personal significance when choosing their lottery numbers. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that these methods increase your chances of winning, but they can be fun and add an element of personal significance to the game.

Choosing games with better odds: Some lottery games have better odds of winning than others. Research the odds of different games before you decide which one to play.

It's important to remember that the lottery is a form of gambling, and it should be played responsibly. It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

There are no secrets that can guarantee a win in lottery, and all the strategies are based on probability, which means that no one can predict with certainty the outcome of the lottery."

-----------------

What about using a covering design to win lower tier lottery prizes?

"A covering design is a mathematical concept that can be applied to certain types of lottery games. In these games, players choose a set of numbers and win prizes if their numbers match those drawn by the lottery. A covering design is a way of choosing numbers that maximizes the chances of winning lower tier prizes, such as matching two or three numbers.

The idea behind a covering design is to choose numbers that are "spread out" across the available numbers, so that if the numbers drawn by the lottery are among the ones you've chosen, the chances of matching at least some of them are higher. Covering designs can be based on different mathematical principles, such as combinatorial designs or algebraic geometry.

It's worth noting that covering designs are not a guarantee of winning lower tier prizes, as the lottery is ultimately a game of chance. Also, not all lottery games can be played with covering designs, it depends on the game rules, number of possible numbers and the number of numbers to be chosen.

It's important to remember that the lottery is a form of gambling, and it should be played responsibly. It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

-----------------

Would assigning weights to lottery numbers based on past performance using software to churn and draw them be more predictive than random chance?

"Assigning weights to lottery numbers based on past performance, using software to analyze and draw them, is a method known as "Number crunching" or "Number wheeling". The idea is that certain numbers are more likely to be drawn than others, and by identifying and selecting these "hot" numbers, a player can increase their chances of winning.

It's worth noting that past performance is not always indicative of future outcomes, and that the lottery is ultimately a game of chance. There's no guarantee that the numbers that have been drawn frequently in the past will continue to be drawn in the future, or that numbers that haven't been drawn in a while will be drawn soon.

While some lottery players swear by number crunching as a way to increase their chances of winning, there is no scientific evidence to support its effectiveness. Additionally, the use of software to analyze past drawing results and identify "hot" numbers is not a guarantee of winning, and many players still lose money.

It's important to remember that the lottery is a form of gambling, and it should be played responsibly. It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of players lose money."

BobP

Interesting and well written feedback from the AI as grabbed from other sites on the subject. I think the AI stuff is getting pretty scary and will cause more people to be mentally lazy as well as to be used to dumb people down more than they already have been.

For instance, Its amazing to watch how many people can't quickly give you change back without using the computer on the register. Makes me think about how they are teaching the kids how to divide in the day and age.

I don't think there is anything anyone can say to me that will stop me, including AI, from looking at and playing the pick 3 numbers. It keeps my brain snapping by considering possibilities. I hardly ever play the big payout games--but would in large group; but I do intend on winning the Ohio's Rolling Cash 5 when I start playing it.

You either love your numbers or ya don't.
Combos for May 2026 Midday and Eve Games
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