"Since the race began when Mega Millions ticket prices were raised to $5, the Powerball jackpot reached about $1.8 billion twice. Whereas, Mega Millions reached just shy of $1 billion only once. "
What exactly is the "race"? If we're talking about bang for the buck(s) PB's cheaper price usually makes it the better bet, but at any given moment the jackpot divided by the ticket cost is as close as there is to a sensible metric for deciding which game to play. Right now MM's chance at $138 million for $5 makes more mathematical sense than a $2 chance at PB's $5 million.
If the race is about ho w big a jackpot will get PB has been unusually lucky this year. Each game can expect one winner for (roughly) every 290 million tickets. When PB sells 292.2 million tickets they've got about $197 million cash for the jackpot. When MM sells 290.5 million tickets they've got about $397 million cash for the jackpot. Those cash values are what the average jackpot should be. PB had 6 jackpot winners in 2025 with an average cash value of about %360 million, or nearly twice the expected average. The 3 jackpots since MM raised the price averaged about $220 million cash, which is only a bit more than half of the expected average.
The "law" of averages isn't actually a law, so we can't expect either PB or MM to make up for their departures from the expected average jackpot, but probability says the current PB jackpot should be hit at a cash value of about $200 million and the current MM run shouldn't be hit until the cash value is about $400 million. For PB to roll past the $460 million cash needed to advertise a $1 billion jackpot (at current the interest rate) they need to sell about 687 million tickets without a winner, and the chance of that happening is about 9.5%. For MM to have the same $460 million they only need to sell 334 million tickets without a winner, and the chance of doing that is about 32%. If the "race" is about being the first to set a new record and actually offer a $1 billion cash jackpot MM has a better chance i terms of simple probability, but PB might get the edge because of faster ticket sales.
Either way, let's hope that 2026 brings us a chance to be in a record setting drawing.
