my idea for a multi-state lotteryPrev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 12, 2025, 9:28 am

1) Choose 6 numbers from 1 to 68.

2) Tickets cost $1.

3) Match all 6 to win the jackpot, which starts at $25 million.

4) 10 cents of each ticket gets added to the jackpot.

5) Match 5 of 6 to win the 2nd prize of $100,000.

6) Buy 5, get one free. For $5, you get 6 lines, which is either 6 QP or your playslip of 5 sets of 6 numbers plus one QP.

7) Both prizes are all cash (subject to taxes, of course, we can't get around that). No annuity BS. If you win $25 million and want it to be paid out in the form of a 30 year annuity, you can buy an annuity yourself.

That's it. Very simple. None of this 5 numbers from one set plus one from another set (that drastically increases the odds of hitting all 6). None of this multiplier nonsense, where some drawings or some tickets win more than others for hitting the same numbers, which I think is silly. 5 of 6 wins $100,000, not $10,000 or $25,000 times some random muliplier.

You can win far more money for just a dollar than you can with any other dollar game. You can play the lottery for $5 (the cost of one MM ticket) and have far better chances of winning. For $1, the starting jackpot is equal to the starting $5 MM jackpot because MM's "$50 million" jackpot is a lie. It is an annuity worth half that.

Odds of winning the jackpot for one line is 1 in 109,453,344. Odds of winning 2nd prize is 1 in 294,229.

If you bet $5, your chances of winning the jackpot is about 1 in 18 million and 2nd prize is 1 in 49,000.

If no one bets $5, the lottery would be keeping 33 cents on the dollar for admin and profit.

For a $5 bet, the lottery adds 50 cents to the jackpot (not 60 cents, as I see no need to add to the jackpot on a free chance to win). If everyone bets $5, the lottery would be keeping 21.8 cents on the dollar. The actual lottery take depends on how many people spend a dollar or two and how many people put down $5. 21.8 cents on the dollar on more dollars is fine, and since admin is a fairly fixed cost, it will even out.

It may seem that a downside to this game is that there are no prizes below 2nd prize. I did this on purpose because those lower prizes eat up a large amount of the prize pool. That's better suited for scratch-offs.

Estimating the average jackpot when it is won is difficult, because it depends on frequency of drawings and how many tickets are sold in each drawing. There won't be any billion dollar jackpots, but I say who cares, even the minimum of $25 million, minus taxes, is obviously life-changing money.

I rarely play Powerball because of the outrageous odds of winning. I want to either lose or win a huge amount of money. I really don't care about winning $4.

I would play this game regularly if it existed.

Thoughts?
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
5,127 Posts
Offline

Dec 12, 2025, 2:40 pm

"4) 10 cents of each ticket gets added to the jackpot. "
"Thoughts? "

I think you've made a mistake, presumably in point 4. You know the chance of matching 6 of 68 is 1 in 109.45 million, so you should expect 1 jackpot winner for every 109.45 million tickets. With 10 cents from each ticket going to the jackpot you'll have just under $11 million each time you pay a winner $25 million. You could do that with an annuity, but if you hand out cash you have a problem. To fully fund a cash prize of $25 million you'd need 22.84 cents from each ticket to go to the jackpot.

Every 109.45 million tickets should also produce almost 372 2nd place winners, requiring a payout of $37.199 million. If you don't give out any free tickets the total payout would be $62.199 million out of every $109.45 million in revenue, which is 56.83%. The worst case scenario for the lottery is collecting only $91.2 million for every $62.2 they have to pay out, reducing their take to 31.8%.

"Estimating the average jackpot when it is won is difficult, because it depends on ... "

In the long run the average jackpot is *always* pretty close to what probability says will be produced by the odds and the portion of each ticket that goes to the jackpot. Much like the current MM format, the minimum prize means that the jackpot probably won't be fully funded for several drawings. Unlike MM your game isn't going to get any jackpot increases until more than 109.45 million tickets have been sold dollars have been collected, assuming the jackpot is funded by the 22.84 cents from each dollar that's required to pay 1 jackpot for every 109.45 million tickets.

"because it depends on ... how many tickets are sold in each drawing."

Looking at data from ancient history when MM and PB tickets cost $1 (and with an almost complete disregard to what the odds were at the time), I'd guess that sales might be $15 to $20 million, but who knows? If that's what would happen you'd be offering the same jackpot for 5 to 8 drawings. That might result in even more whining then MM's early increases of $10 million. In turn, it might mean smaller sales than PB and MM used to manage in the days when tickets cost $1 and enough people played to give us $100 million increases before the jackpot reached $300 or 400 million.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 12, 2025, 4:53 pm

I think you've made a mistake, presumably in point 4. You know the chance of matching 6 of 68 is 1 in 109.45 million, so you should expect 1 jackpot winner for every 109.45 million tickets. With 10 cents from each ticket going to the jackpot you'll have just under $11 million each time you pay a winner $25 million. You could do that with an annuity, but if you hand out cash you have a problem. To fully fund a cash prize of $25 million you'd need 22.84 cents from each ticket to go to the jackpot.

Every 109.45 million tickets should also produce almost 372 2nd place winners, requiring a payout of $37.199 million. If you don't give out any free tickets the total payout would be $62.199 million out of every $109.45 million in revenue, which is 56.83%. The worst case scenario for the lottery is collecting only $91.2 million for every $62.2 they have to pay out, reducing their take to 31.8%.

I don't see the problem. I agree that 22.84 cents from each ticket goes towards the jackpot reset value of $25 million. An additional 10 cents is added to the progressive jackpot. Thus, a total of 32.84 cents from each ticket goes towards the jackpot, both reset value and progressive feature. The second prize is worth 34 cents per ticket, for a total of 66.84 cents per ticket.

A $5 ticket, which gets you 6 lines and adds 10 cents*5 to the progressive, is worth (in cents):

jackpot = 22.84*6+10*5

2nd prize=34*6

total = 391 cents

$3.91/$5=78.2%
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 12, 2025, 6:45 pm

What about prizes for matching 4 or 3 numbers? If there are only prizes for matching 5 or 6 no one would play the game as it is simply far too difficult to match 5+ (1 in 294k+) or you don't win anything.

If you are interested in a multi-state lottery try looking at something like Australia's 6/45 Tattslotto game to help with our idea. It has been running since about 1986 and is by far our most popular lottery game.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 13, 2025, 4:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MartyMcNuts on Dec 12, 2025
What about prizes for matching 4 or 3 numbers? If there are only prizes for matching 5 or 6 no one would play the game as it is simply far too difficult to match 5+ (1 in 294k+) or you don't win anything.

If you are interested in a multi-state lottery try looking at something like Australia's 6/45 Tattslotto game to help with our idea. It has been running since about 1986 and is by far our most popular lottery game.

Good point. I can make the RTP the same with this prize structure:

6/6 $20 million

5/6 $90,000

4/6 $150

3/6 $5

Probability of getting 4 of 6 is 1 in 3,736. 3 of 6 is 1 in 131.
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 13, 2025, 5:50 pm

That does look better but without looking at the logistics, I would think something like:

6/6 $20 Million

5/6 $100,000

4/6 $100

3/6 $10

would be good. Looks more appealing with these rounded figures.
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 13, 2025, 6:12 pm

To make it even more appealing, you could even reduce the number of balls to say 50? and reduce first division to say $10 million and second division to say $10k.

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 15,890,700)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 60,192)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1120)

3/6 $10 (1 in 60)

or 44 balls perhaps??

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 7,059,052)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 30,961)

4/6 $100 (1 in 669)

3/6 $10 (1 in 42)

Again, I don't know the logistics but....
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 13, 2025, 6:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MartyMcNuts on Dec 13, 2025
That does look better but without looking at the logistics, I would think something like:

6/6 $20 Million

5/6 $100,000

4/6 $100

3/6 $10

would be good. Looks more appealing with these rounded figures.

At the dollar rate, that provides the lottery with a 28% margin. But at the five dollar rate (buy 5, get 6 lines), it shrinks to 15%. That's tough when they have to pay the retailer a 7% commission.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 13, 2025, 6:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MartyMcNuts on Dec 13, 2025
To make it even more appealing, you could even reduce the number of balls to say 50? and reduce first division to say $10 million and second division to say $10k.

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 15,890,700)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 60,192)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1120)

3/6 $10 (1 in 60)

or 44 balls perhaps??

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 7,059,052)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 30,961)

4/6 $100 (1 in 669)

3/6 $10 (1 in 42)

Again, I don't know the logistics but....

For the 6 of 50 prize structure, those prizes add up to $1.08, so not possible on a $1 ticket.

The way to calculate this is to take the prize amount divided by n (odds being 1 in n) and add them up. Then add 10 cents for the progressive feature. This is the value of a $1 ticket. It needs to be at least 50 cents but not too high or the lottery won't make any money (good for the players but the states/MUSL won't adopt it).

To calculate the RTP of a $5 wager (buy 5, get one free), take the above calculation (excluding the progressive contribution), multiply by 6, and add 50 cents (10 cents per purchased line). Then divide that by $5.
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 13, 2025, 7:19 pm

So don't give a free ticket and make the ticket price $1.50 or $1.60. It would still be worth it for the consumer.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 13, 2025, 9:56 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MartyMcNuts on Dec 13, 2025
So don't give a free ticket and make the ticket price $1.50 or $1.60. It would still be worth it for the consumer.

My idea is to have a game that costs $1.00. The buy 5, get one free is similar to promotions that lotteries run, but make this a permanent part of the game. For those who don't mind spending $5 on a progressive draw game, they get an extra chance to win.

$20 million isn't as much as hundreds of millions, but it's still life-changing. It's about the same as MM starting jackpot but without the absurdly low chances of winning. 1 in 18 million instead of 1 in 300 million. More frequent winners instead of rolling jackpots for months.
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 14, 2025, 12:14 am

I get it. $20 million is still more than most people would ever need. Heck, even $5 million is still life changing for most people. 1 in 18 million chance is much better but still might be a little too high. 1 in 8-10 million would be great with a $5 mil jackpot. Most draws would probably result in a winner or two.

So my 50 ball suggestion would work if the jackpot was reduced to $5 million and you kept the $1.00 ticket and buy 5 get 1 free, although the lottery would not really be making anything.

6/6 $5 Mil (1 in 15,890,700) - (0.32)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 60,192) - (0.17)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1120) - (0.09)

3/6 $10 (1 in 60) - (0.17)

so about 75c + 10c = 85c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .75 * 6 = 4.50 + 0.50 = 5.00 / 5 = 1.00 exactly.

How about 55 balls and a $10 Mil jackpot for a bit more buffer?

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 28,989,675) - (0.34)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 98,604) - (0.10)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1,643) - (0.06)

3/6 $10 (1 in 79) - (0.13)

so about 63c + 10c = 73c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .63 * 6 = 3.78 + 0.50 = 4.28 / 5 = 0.86.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 14, 2025, 2:43 am

Quote: Originally posted by MartyMcNuts on Dec 14, 2025
I get it. $20 million is still more than most people would ever need. Heck, even $5 million is still life changing for most people. 1 in 18 million chance is much better but still might be a little too high. 1 in 8-10 million would be great with a $5 mil jackpot. Most draws would probably result in a winner or two.

So my 50 ball suggestion would work if the jackpot was reduced to $5 million and you kept the $1.00 ticket and buy 5 get 1 free, although the lottery would not really be making anything.

6/6 $5 Mil (1 in 15,890,700) - (0.32)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 60,192) - (0.17)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1120) - (0.09)

3/6 $10 (1 in 60) - (0.17)

so about 75c + 10c = 85c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .75 * 6 = 4.50 + 0.50 = 5.00 / 5 = 1.00 exactly.

How about 55 balls and a $10 Mil jackpot for a bit more buffer?

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 28,989,675) - (0.34)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 98,604) - (0.10)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1,643) - (0.06)

3/6 $10 (1 in 79) - (0.13)

so about 63c + 10c = 73c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .63 * 6 = 3.78 + 0.50 = 4.28 / 5 = 0.86.

I like the prize amounts on the second one. You need just a couple more balls to make the $5 ticket value around 75%.
MartyMcNuts

Australia
Member #198,412
May 24, 2019
134 Posts
Online

Dec 14, 2025, 4:58 am

Why? More balls would make it too difficult. Would lowering the amounts a little make a difference?

55 Balls still so same odds.

6/6 $7.5 Mil (1 in 28,989,675) - (0.26)

5/6 $7,500 (1 in 98,604) - (0.08)

4/6 $75 (1 in 1,643) - (0.05)

3/6 $7.50 (1 in 79) - (0.09)

so about 48c + 10c = 58c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .48* 6 = 2.88 + 0.50 = 3.38 / 5 = 0.68.
Tucker Black

Colorado
United States
Member #173,294
February 25, 2016
1,134 Posts
Offline

Dec 14, 2025, 5:25 am

I like that one!

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

my idea for a multi-state lotteryPrev TopicNext Topic

my idea for a multi-state lotteryPrev Topic Next Topic