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winterbird

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Mar 27, 2026, 10:09 pm

A lot of people are struggling right now, so $20 tickets are a bit steep. I seem to recall that the odds for 100k were not as good as for the 1 mil prizes. So maybe the push will be closer to the main draw.
Sum Buddy

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Mar 28, 2026, 2:08 pm

Florida Raffle 2026: What are the odds?

The return of the Florida Lottery Raffle certainly caught my eye. I have thought about the raffle in years past, but did not realize it had been 20 years since the last one. It looks like they have re-vamped the format (multiple drawings instead of one drawing, multiple million-dollar prizes, all tickets purchased valid for all drawings.) But I am curious as to how they have calculated the odds.

Now, I have played the Florida Lottery Jackpot Triple Play game on and off for awhile. It is a 4 of 46 game matrix. Every line you play is printed on a separate ticket along with two free quick picks on that ticket. So each ticket has three lines on it.

Using Lottery Post's handy odds calculator, I see the odds of winning the top prize in a 4 of 46 game is 1 in 9,366,819. But not according to Florida Lottery.

As you can see, Florida Lottery has decided that since there are three lines on one ticket, the odds are magically transformed into 1 in 3,122,273, i.e. they have divided the odds by three. These odds have been pulled out of an orifice and not a brainpan. Since there are three lines on each ticket, the probabilities are 3 in 9,366,819, not the odds.

All of this is why I am wondering how Florida Lottery arrived at their posted odds on the raffle. (You can see the Lottery's posted odds at the bottom of the Millionaire Raffle "Rules" page.) I personally am not astute enough to know if it is even possible to calculate odds on the raffle, as it seems to me that the number of tickets sold, the number of tickets you purchase, and the number of prizes awarded per drawing all play a part.

Don't get me wrong, I've got some tickets. I may even buy one on the 31st just to see how many have been sold before the first drawing.

Good Luck to everybody who's in it!

The banquet you enjoy depends on what you bring to the table.
Sum Buddy

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Mar 28, 2026, 2:47 pm

Correction: Speaking of pulling it out of an orifice, the Jackpot Triple Play game is a 6 of 46 game matrix

The banquet you enjoy depends on what you bring to the table.
Tucker Black

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Mar 28, 2026, 3:38 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Sum Buddy on Mar 28, 2026
Florida Raffle 2026: What are the odds?

The return of the Florida Lottery Raffle certainly caught my eye. I have thought about the raffle in years past, but did not realize it had been 20 years since the last one. It looks like they have re-vamped the format (multiple drawings instead of one drawing, multiple million-dollar prizes, all tickets purchased valid for all drawings.) But I am curious as to how they have calculated the odds.

Now, I have played the Florida Lottery Jackpot Triple Play game on and off for awhile. It is a 4 of 46 game matrix. Every line you play is printed on a separate ticket along with two free quick picks on that ticket. So each ticket has three lines on it.

Using Lottery Post's handy odds calculator, I see the odds of winning the top prize in a 4 of 46 game is 1 in 9,366,819. But not according to Florida Lottery.

As you can see, Florida Lottery has decided that since there are three lines on one ticket, the odds are magically transformed into 1 in 3,122,273, i.e. they have divided the odds by three. These odds have been pulled out of an orifice and not a brainpan. Since there are three lines on each ticket, the probabilities are 3 in 9,366,819, not the odds.

All of this is why I am wondering how Florida Lottery arrived at their posted odds on the raffle. (You can see the Lottery's posted odds at the bottom of the Millionaire Raffle "Rules" page.) I personally am not astute enough to know if it is even possible to calculate odds on the raffle, as it seems to me that the number of tickets sold, the number of tickets you purchase, and the number of prizes awarded per drawing all play a part.

Don't get me wrong, I've got some tickets. I may even buy one on the 31st just to see how many have been sold before the first drawing.

Good Luck to everybody who's in it!

"Odds" and "probability" both describe the same thing (basically, "chances of winning") but in a different format.

If I flip a fair coin, the probability of it landing on heads is 1/2, or 0.5, or 50% (all the same number). The odds of it landing on heads are 1:1. Clearly, 1 and 1/2 are significantly different numbers. That's why odds uses the : while probability uses the . so you don't mix them up.

But when the chances of winning are really low, it doesn't matter much which label you use. If a raffle sold a million tickets, of which one will be the big winner, it is true that the probability of one ticket being the winner is 1/1000000 while the odds of one ticket being the winner are 1:999999. It's okay to call it "odds of winning are one in a million". The distinction is the word "in" (which means "divided by") as opposed to "to" (which is the colon in the odds format).

For odds stated as "a to b", you can reduce both a and b by dividing both by the same number. You're not required to, but you're also not prohibited from reducing both numbers to make life easier.

For example, if you have 8 possible outcomes, of which 2 are favorable and 6 are unfavorable, you could say that the odds of winning are 2:6, or you could reduce that to say that the odds of winning are 1:3. It's the same thing. In probability terms, it works the same way. Probability of winning is 2/8, or 1/4. They're the same.

In the Florida Triple Play Jackpot, whether we it "odds of winning 1 in 3.1 million" or "probability of winning 1 in 3.1 million", it doesn't matter. It's a 1 in 3.1 million chance of winning.

Note that the figure on their website (3,122,273.33) is ever so slightly worse than the precise 9,366,819 divided by 3 (which is 3,122,273) because of the very slim chance that the QP generator will randomly pick the same numbers as you.

If your ticket with your numbers and the two QP lines are all different, then your chances of winning is precisely 1 in 3,122,273.

While that is the same thing as 3 in 9,366,819, we normally convert that to the "1 in" format, even when it seems strange, like for a scratch-off ticket with "overall odds of winning any prize 1 in 3.17".
winterbird

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Mar 28, 2026, 3:45 pm

Calculating the straight odds of a raffle is easy, at least by prize tier. You divide the number of tickets sold by the number of prizes.

Like for example, if by the end it sells 900,000 tickets, then the odds for the million are 1:90,000. If it sells 1,400,000 tickets, the odds are 1:140,000.

There are additional prizes added at the half mil increments of sales. So if it sells 1,600,000 tickets the odds are 1:106,6666.

Your personal odds based on how many tickets you buy are equally easy to calculate, because you just divide the raffle odds by your number of tickets.

Not that your odds are everything, because as I said in another thread, I save up occasionally until I can buy a certain number of state lotto tickets to get me to at about 1:7,000 and I haven't won.
GiveFive

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Mar 29, 2026, 8:10 am

Quote: Originally posted by Sum Buddy on Mar 28, 2026
Florida Raffle 2026: What are the odds?

The return of the Florida Lottery Raffle certainly caught my eye. I have thought about the raffle in years past, but did not realize it had been 20 years since the last one. It looks like they have re-vamped the format (multiple drawings instead of one drawing, multiple million-dollar prizes, all tickets purchased valid for all drawings.) But I am curious as to how they have calculated the odds.

Now, I have played the Florida Lottery Jackpot Triple Play game on and off for awhile. It is a 4 of 46 game matrix. Every line you play is printed on a separate ticket along with two free quick picks on that ticket. So each ticket has three lines on it.

Using Lottery Post's handy odds calculator, I see the odds of winning the top prize in a 4 of 46 game is 1 in 9,366,819. But not according to Florida Lottery.

As you can see, Florida Lottery has decided that since there are three lines on one ticket, the odds are magically transformed into 1 in 3,122,273, i.e. they have divided the odds by three. These odds have been pulled out of an orifice and not a brainpan. Since there are three lines on each ticket, the probabilities are 3 in 9,366,819, not the odds.

All of this is why I am wondering how Florida Lottery arrived at their posted odds on the raffle. (You can see the Lottery's posted odds at the bottom of the Millionaire Raffle "Rules" page.) I personally am not astute enough to know if it is even possible to calculate odds on the raffle, as it seems to me that the number of tickets sold, the number of tickets you purchase, and the number of prizes awarded per drawing all play a part.

Don't get me wrong, I've got some tickets. I may even buy one on the 31st just to see how many have been sold before the first drawing.

Good Luck to everybody who's in it!

Hi Sum Buddy! Nice to see you posting. It's been a while since I've read a post from you!

I'd going to ask you a couple of questions....

Did you buy your raffle tickets because you felt that you really could or just might actually win one of the top prizes?

Did you buy your tickets because there will be multiple top prize winners on July 2nd?

Or did you buy your tickets for both of the above reasons?

If so, then you're just like almost every other member of The Lottery Playing Public.

All of the discussion that has appeared in this thread regarding the calculation of the odds of winning is meaningless to almost every single player that buys a ticket. Although the public fully understands that buying a lottery ticket is a suckers bet, they do like the fact that even though a raffle ticket costs them 20 bucks, they have a good feeling that they actually could win it and it's guaranteed there'll be top prize winners. How many people do you know that regularly buy MegaMillions or PowerBall tickets feel the same way about buying tickets for those games even though they cost far less than a raffle ticket?

Good luck to you as well! G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
Sum Buddy

Between Two Worlds

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Mar 29, 2026, 9:58 am

Hey G5! Good to see you're also fighting the good fight!

I'm in the raffle because it came out right at a time when I decided to take a break from the lottery. I quit playing scratch-offs awhile back. I had been playing JTP regularly, but the method I'm using for number selection dictated a break until June (don't ask!)

If by “felt that you really could” you mean 'can I afford it?' then yes. Considering the recent inflationary trends, I am fortunate to be in a position to still have discretionary funds with which to play the lottery. I also felt that said inflationary trends (along with almost non-existent advertising) would keep Raffle sales low. Lower sales, better chance for those who are playing

Speaking of non-existent advertising, I first learned of the Raffle when I walked into a convenience store, and happened to glance over at the little Lottery stand with all the play slips (I was not there to play the Lottery.) On the front of the stand was a bundle of brightly-colored leaflets with “Raffle” on the front. So I went over and got one. The leaflet was virtually information-free. No mention of dates, prizes, price, nothing. It's sort of like submitting a resume for a job application, and all it says is “I exist!” So when I got home, I got on the Lottery website. Even then, I still fumbled around until I found the Raffle was on the “Promotions” page.

As I said in a previous post, I'll probably buy a Raffle ticket on Tuesday, just to see where sales are.

The banquet you enjoy depends on what you bring to the table.
GiveFive

Florida's West Coast
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Mar 29, 2026, 10:02 am

This just in to The Interesting to Note But Nobody Cares Department -

This time around The Florida Lottery did in fact "revamp" this edition of The Millionaire Raffle. I think they probably copied some ideas that were instituted by The Pennsylvania Millionaire Raffle. I'm a transplant from the Northeast to Florida, and I used to live less than an hour's drive of Pennsylvania. PA has offered their version of a Millionaire Raffle every Fall for many years. I made the trip over to PA each Fall quite a few times to buy tickets for their raffle. That's because New York rarely offered any type of raffle. Also, other states bordering PA saw quite a few players getting in on the action. (NJ, MD, DE, WV and OH)

PA sold only 500,000 tickets at $20 each. Ticket sales for their raffle starts in early October and runs until the first week of January when the final drawing is held. Four top prizes of $1,000,000 are awarded. Not many years ago, PA added an incentive to buy tickets early in the sales cycle by adding "Early Bird" drawings for tickets purchased in October and November. ($100,000 top prizes)

IMHO, they were smart about the time of year when they first offered the raffle, but until they offered The Early Bird prizes, ticket sales were usually slow in October and November. In December sales really took off. People bought tickets as Christmas gifts for their families creating a "Mad Rush" for tickets late in the sales cycle.

I recall reading that The PA Lottery did have one concern with their Millionaire Raffle, which was that it "cannibalized" ticket sales of their $20 scratch off tickets. Other than that it must be successful because they still have had a raffle every year for about 20 years. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
Sum Buddy

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Mar 29, 2026, 10:05 am

If I recall correctly, previous Florida raffles were held in the fall/winter season.

The banquet you enjoy depends on what you bring to the table.
GiveFive

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Mar 29, 2026, 10:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by Sum Buddy on Mar 29, 2026
Hey G5! Good to see you're also fighting the good fight!

I'm in the raffle because it came out right at a time when I decided to take a break from the lottery. I quit playing scratch-offs awhile back. I had been playing JTP regularly, but the method I'm using for number selection dictated a break until June (don't ask!)

If by “felt that you really could” you mean 'can I afford it?' then yes. Considering the recent inflationary trends, I am fortunate to be in a position to still have discretionary funds with which to play the lottery. I also felt that said inflationary trends (along with almost non-existent advertising) would keep Raffle sales low. Lower sales, better chance for those who are playing

Speaking of non-existent advertising, I first learned of the Raffle when I walked into a convenience store, and happened to glance over at the little Lottery stand with all the play slips (I was not there to play the Lottery.) On the front of the stand was a bundle of brightly-colored leaflets with “Raffle” on the front. So I went over and got one. The leaflet was virtually information-free. No mention of dates, prizes, price, nothing. It's sort of like submitting a resume for a job application, and all it says is “I exist!” So when I got home, I got on the Lottery website. Even then, I still fumbled around until I found the Raffle was on the “Promotions” page.

As I said in a previous post, I'll probably buy a Raffle ticket on Tuesday, just to see where sales are.

Not so much "can I afford it" but rather due to the "low" odds? (at least in terms of 'lottery land' odds they're low)

Years ago while I was buying some Pennsylvania Millionaire Raffle tickets, the woman behind the counter said to me - "Well! Aren't you the smart one!" She then said "At least people have a decent shot at actually winning this." I realized that she was a 'Focal Point'. She saw how many people bought tickets for the big games, but she didn't see many of them bring back a winning ticket.

And yes, inflation has definitely taken it's toll on players. And I've now seen two clerks here in Florida not know what it was that I was talking about when I asked for a Millionaire Raffle ticket. My situation with regard to buying lottery tickets in general is that I can still do it, but what I did when I saw The Raffle was to stop buying Fantasy5 and PowerBall tickets in favor of Raffle tickets. That's going to continue for the next three months or so. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
winterbird

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Mar 29, 2026, 11:07 pm

Here's some quick n dirty data on daily sales thus far... based on the ticket numbers posted in this thread, my own tickets, and the tickets of a couple of people I know.
GiveFive

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Mar 30, 2026, 8:03 am

Quote: Originally posted by winterbird on Mar 29, 2026
Here's some quick n dirty data on daily sales thus far... based on the ticket numbers posted in this thread, my own tickets, and the tickets of a couple of people I know.

Thanks. Nice to know info.

I haven't yet exhausted my lottery budget for March, so I was thinking that I'd buy one more ticket on Tuesday just so I could gage how ticket sales have been going. But maybe not now! 20 bucks a pop is kinda pricey just to get a handle on how ticket sales are going. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
GiveFive

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Mar 30, 2026, 5:48 pm

This might not amount to a hill of beans to anyone but FWIW.....

The Pennsylvania Millionaire Raffle winning numbers were generated by a Random Number Generator. I would think that'll be the case with the upcoming Florida Lottery's raffle as well.

Makes no difference to me. G5

Play Smart! That's IF there is such a thing as playing smartly!!
winterbird

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Mar 30, 2026, 8:48 pm

Well, I'd rather no computer randomizer be used, but I can't do anything about that so I'm here for however this goes. 😅

Update on the data, today's sales are in the low 4,000 range. Maybe it'll chug along slowly until before the million draw.
Coin Toss

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Mar 30, 2026, 9:20 pm

Tucker Black, on any discussion board the probability of any post being read is directly inversely proportional to the length of the post. 😴

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