Math and probability help or not ?Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prometheus1

  

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  Posted: June 26, 2003 at 9:39pm - IP Logged IMG height=21 alt=Quote Thomas Covenant src= //lp.vg/images/p_quote.gif>
  Standard Member United States July 16, 2002 397 Posts Offline	>Ok, Prometheus, give me a little while and I will present you with some research.<

  
  

   

  Thomas Covenant, did you forget? Hows the research study going? Thought you might be able to help us before we blow all our money over the 4th. of July holidays. LOL   Really have been looking forward to your views and research. 

    PROMETHEUS       
• Prometheus1

  

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  Quote: Originally posted by Prometheus1 on July 02, 2003
  

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  Posted: June 26, 2003 at 9:39pm - IP Logged IMG height=21 alt=Quote Thomas Covenant src= //lp.vg/images/p_quote.gif>
  Standard Member United States July 16, 2002 397 Posts Offline	>Ok, Prometheus, give me a little while and I will present you with some research.<

  
  

   

  Thomas Covenant, did you forget? Hows the research study going? Thought you might be able to help us before we blow all our money over the 4th. of July holidays. LOL   Really have been looking forward to your views and research. 

  
  

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            Thomas hope ya see this, we need your insite on this chaos before we lose any more cash! 
  

    PROMETHEUS       
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  Jul 5, 2003, 6:05 pm

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  Thought about it. But after I posted that email about the Great Steve Player being a loser, and no one cared, I decided it was pointless. Read all my posts from the past.
  
  Past draws do not affect future draws, you can believe mathematians, or you can believe the people who are trying to sell you lottery systems. The choice is yours.

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• Prometheus1

  

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  Thomas, I don't know or care about Steve Player or any other marketer. What I had hoped for was an answer to the question does Math or Probability help. Math and Probability are the only system that are grounded in science.    

    PROMETHEUS       
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  Future draws are not effected by past results. That is a Law of Probability. That pretty much ends it right there. This isn't something I made up. Really think about it. Forget about the math, sums, odds, evens, "hot", "cold", etc. Ignore numbers. Just think about the balls bouncing around in a container. How is it possible that they can follow any sort of pattern for any length of time? Maybe they have slight differences in the balls.(Unlikely, they are rigorously tested), But they randomly change out the balls and the machine. They also frequently retire ball sets. How can they follow a predictable pattern?

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• Prometheus1

  

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  Thomas, i draw your attention back to the original  question regarding the chart i posted on the systems forum. How does one explain the results of that chart or any one of other charts of that type and remain reticent? Remembering that us humans see patterns where they do and do not exist. LOL  That chart is a classic example of what most would have to agree is at the least , represents some semblance or predictability.  One thousand draws for the state of Ga. and each digit shows up almost flat lined across the top of the chart. Each number comming almost the same amount of times.Each number following it's expected or predicted mathematical average and all within the laws of probability. If these numbers are drawn in a random manner, it does not follow that the results are unpredicable.       

    PROMETHEUS       
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  Jul 5, 2003, 8:16 pm

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  I can say that in a little over a million years, all the possible number combinations in powerball will be drawn, however, this won't help me on my next pick. Each digit may have occurred over a 1000 draws flat-lined, that is the law of averages, that doesn't help you on the next draw. Like I have said before, if you track 100 coin flips, you can't predict the 101st flip.

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• Prometheus1

  

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  AAAAAAhhh ! Now i think i understand Thomas. You read my other post where i stipulated to the fact that no one can predict the next dvent. Right? So, we are together on that.

    Now, back to the question of using math and the laws of propability to help. Using those as a system to increase your chances as you play over time. Do they help? Not necessarily on one day or one time but in general over time. Please answer as close to yes or no as you can. Thanks   

  '

    PROMETHEUS       
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  No

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• Prometheus1

  

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  Thomas, that's great, we are really getting closer to an understanding now. We might be surprised to find that we are both a lot closer to a common belief than you might think right now. I am basing this on the fact that I have read over several of your previous posts on various subjects and found you to be an otherwise reasonable fella, with the ability to absorb and express various ideas with ease. 

  This one concept seems to be the exception. Based on my preconceived notion of your abilities, I am fascinated and perplexed at the same time. How or why does an otherwise reasonable person choose to participate in games of chance unarmed ?  We are both members of the same forum and I feel compelled to help if possible. So I'll give you my best try.  Perhaps this disscussion will help other members who would rather win more often by making more reasonable bets and that would be good. Right?   

  Yep, I do believe there are more reasonable bets than others. I am going to give you my best shot. After that, and because I am sure that you are a  reasonable person, you will conclude the same thing.  I don't think that this will cause you to change your underlying beliefs. No, because I think they are already reasonably sound, but I hope you will concede one point: That the average player can make a more reasonable bet , and better protect themselves when they are armed with the history of the game and the tools of Mathematical averages and probability. 

   I'll be back in a while, need to give someone a lift, but I'll be thinking about the best way to give this a try. If I do a good enough job, we both might end up agreeing on the same thing...and maybe we can help others on the post at the same time.   

    PROMETHEUS       
• RJOh

  

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  To PROMETHEUS,

  The best way to prove your point is to win a lottery jackpot.

  RJOh 
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  RJOh, actually winning seems to be too much to ask. Just making nice charts and graphs is enough.

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• Thomas Covenant

  

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  Jul 6, 2003, 1:56 pm

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  I really don't understand what point you are trying to make. My point is that you cannot predict what numbers will show up at the next drawing. That is a point you seem to agree with. Over an infinite amount of time the balls could form any sort of pattern. But that really doesn't matter. You can't predict the next one. What exactly are you trying to get me to admit? That the balls form patterns? Sure they do. I agree wholeheartedly. Can you predict what these patterns will be beforehand? Not a chance. I can throw a handful of BB's on the floor and see a pattern. I can't predict what that pattern would be. To put it bluntly, you can't predict a coin toss, with only two possible combinations. How can I believe you can predict the pick 3? Only one way to find out, post predictions over a period of time and let's see. Make it "real world". Putting out 34 numbers for a entire month for all states, both daily draws, isn't real world.
  
  

  
  Okay, now I believe you can predict lottery numbers
• reddog

  

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  Jul 6, 2003, 2:27 pm

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  So are you Pro or Con torwards the Lotto?
• askjeeves

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  I absolutely agree with Thomas.  That's why I'm opposed to buying systems or tools.  Save money and buy QPs or play your birthdays.  They have just as good chance of wiing.