Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 2, 2016, 5:18 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Numeric frequency theories do not apply

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 13 years ago by Johnny5.

Page 1 of 3
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Member
Perth
Australia
Member #2848
November 22, 2003
1 Posts
Offline
Posted: November 22, 2003, 12:56 am - IP Logged
Numeric Frequency Theories don't apply!

I am surprised at the number of numeric frequency theories that are suggested through this discussion board. I am no mathmatician, but anyone with even a slight understanding of probability would know that these theories do not apply to random draws, such as lottery numbers. Each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn if it has been drawn 1000 times or only 10 times before.

Anyone who wants to win at gambling using strategy would be better off at a casino - at least they will give you free cash just for opening an account (check out all the free cash deals at http://www.richchicken.com
). Of course the house will usually win in the end, but you have a much better chance of winning than playing lotto!

    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

    Greece
    Member #2815
    November 18, 2003
    502 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: November 22, 2003, 3:56 am - IP Logged

    You're absolutery right. I'm a mathematicial and frequencies are the easiest to use but they don't offer any better odds than playing random numbers! We should look for patterns, unusual behaviour of each number or anything else except frequencies!

    If you have something to do, at least do it well...


      Belgium
      Member #2220
      September 2, 2003
      553 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 22, 2003, 4:16 am - IP Logged

      I'm not a frequency freak either, but saying that Each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn, is old school foolish "wisdom".

        lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

        Greece
        Member #2815
        November 18, 2003
        502 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: November 22, 2003, 5:01 am - IP Logged

        To have a clear idea of each lottery's random behaviour, we should have a very large history of draws. There are mathematical formulas to determine the minimum draws required but believe me, it's far beyond any history draws we have. A lottery 5/45 for example has 1221759 different tickets. Each of these 45 numbers exists in exactly 135751 tickets. Thus as most lotteries around the world have much less than 10000 history draws, we can realize our sample is relative short to conclude anything about the random nature of lotteries. But since we have an adequate sample size, we expect to observe that each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn. Of course most people say lotteries are random. I don't disagree neither agree. The real thing we should consider about is that lotteries appear not truly "random" in a short period of time (eg a number may not be drawn at all) but at a larger scale they should be (or may be not as well). We just cannot prove this at the moment. Neither a program that generates random draws is valid to test this assumption because the numbers generated are not really random (althought they have properties of random numbers), neither do they come up the same way as lotteries do.

        If you have something to do, at least do it well...


          United States
          Member #1759
          June 29, 2003
          1156 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: November 22, 2003, 8:13 am - IP Logged

          All Lottery numbers theoretically have the same chance of being drawn but in reality they don't behave this way

          because you will have numbers that come up repeatedly or more often and less often in a given draw history.You also have numbers that don't come up for weeks,in the Pick-3/4 games I've seen a number drawn 4 days in a row while another number was out for 2 wks.In the Pick-3/4 you can observe the numbers Hit/Skip activity and select a group of numbers to wheel(8).In the Pick-5/6 games you would place the numbers in Consecutive Number Groups like this using a 5/36 game as an example (1,2,3-4,5,6-7,8,9)(10,11,12-13,14,15-16,17,18)(19,20,21-22,23,24-25,26,27)(28,29,30-31,32,33-34,35,36) next you eliminate 1 (3)number set from each group then eliminate 1 number from the remaining number sets which leaves you with 16 numbers to wheel.

            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
            Pennsylvania
            United States
            Member #1340
            April 6, 2003
            2450 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: November 22, 2003, 1:49 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by apagogeas on November 22, 2003


            There are mathematical formulas to determine the minimum draws required but believe me, it's far beyond any history draws we have.



            I have over 9,000 drawings in history for the PA Daily number (Pick 3, only 1000 combinations)...

            what are the formulas you speak of?

            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

              Avatar

              United States
              Member #2460
              October 7, 2003
              766 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: November 22, 2003, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

              Each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn if it has been drawn 1000 times or only 10 times before.

              Each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn, is old school foolish "wisdom".

              To have a clear idea of each lottery's random behaviour, we should have a very large history of draws. There are mathematical formulas to determine the minimum draws required but believe me, it's far beyond any history draws we have.

              I hate to disagree with you all on the above, seeing as how you know so much about math and I don't, but even so, in reality concerning the above statements you are both: Right and wrong.



              First let me say that in an ideal theoretical lottery situation each number or ball, does have the same chance of coming out, or should, but because of circumstances, or laws unknown to us, they really don't.

              In the short run, some numbers come more often than others (repeat} and some other come only once and some don't come at all.

              But in the long run, (Depends on the game, how long. (Pick3 or pick6 or whatever}} The frequency of all numbers has a tendency to become equal or to equalize itself, so after so many runs all the numbers would had come out a given number of times or percent of the time and it will be as equal as possible or at least as equal as they will ever be and for that number of runs is possible that the number will (Always?} remain constant.

              So frequency does count, specially if you predict by percent, based, on a fixed expected percent for that particular number after a given number of draws, on the very long run when the numbers equalize as much as possible of course.

              I understand that this or this method is or might not be possible with most lottery games, but it should be possible with the pick3 and maybe pick4.

              Anyway this is the opinion of somebody who doesn't know anything or doesn't know better.

              What do you think?

                Avatar

                United States
                Member #2460
                October 7, 2003
                766 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: November 22, 2003, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

                It is just an idea, but I suggest that you check



                Open Discussion: Define/Refine Prediction     Pick 3     hypersoniq

                November 17, 2003, 8:12pm



                The above interesting post, on the pick 3 forum.

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
                  United States
                  Member #828
                  November 2, 2002
                  10491 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: November 22, 2003, 7:25 pm - IP Logged
                  Quote: Originally posted by damo87 on November 22, 2003


                  Numeric Frequency Theories don't apply!

                  I am surprised at the number of numeric frequency theories that are suggested through this discussion board. I am no mathematician, but anyone with even a slight understanding of probability would know that these theories do not apply to random draws, such as lottery numbers. Each number has exactly the same chance of being drawn if it has been drawn 1000 times or only 10 times before.



                  .....................................................................................................


                  Dear Damo87 ...sorry

                  That's wrong. When you use the word chance.... if you mean the odds never change.... that is correct.

                   The odds on a Coin Flip are always 50/50. Each time a coin is flipped the odds never change..... no matter how many times you get a head or a tail. 

                   The probability however will change accordingly based on the entire dvent......not just one flip.

                   The probability of your tossing 30 Heads in a row are over  one in  three Billion ! 

                    Even mathematicians think these words are  interchangeable. Physicists do not.

                            Probability is when Math meets common sense.

                    lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                    Greece
                    Member #2815
                    November 18, 2003
                    502 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: November 23, 2003, 9:26 am - IP Logged

                    EXCALIBUR, we say exactly the same thing! Actually, anyone here says the same thing in different words.

                    About the formulas, this is like asking me to write a technical article on this, which I'll not. There a lot steps involved in this, it's not just a simple equation. Anyone who has an understanding of statistics, confidence intervals, normal distribution, degrees of freedom, sample size properties etc, can realize the problem we are dealing with. It's differeít to observe a possible dvent than proving it's truth. Consider the tossing of a coin which has only 2 possible outcomes, and if it's fair we expect each one to appear 1/2. If you toss it 10 times, you may end with 5 heads. This doesn't mean it's fair. To make "sure" we have to setup a whole procedure defining a confidence interval (eg 95%), an assumption of its possible distribution etc. This could require tossing more than 1000 times and may repeat the whole procedure over and over again. This is the simplest example someone can think about. Lotteries have many more outcomes than this. And we don't know their distribution and other properties in advance. You don't need to be a math's freak to understand the complexity of this problem. Pick-3 games are possibly easier than lotto but have the same problems too.

                    If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
                      United States
                      Member #828
                      November 2, 2002
                      10491 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: November 23, 2003, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

                       At this point, I don't know enough about the big games to ever attempt any sort of system. I play on occasion but don't attempt to overcome its complexity. At this point, I believe there is already too much to overcome with simple pick-3 games, much less the big games. Don't we agree that the first breakthroughs will come at this level? This is where I have begun. Trying to learn to walk before we run.

                        Even at the Pick-3 level, the odds and payoffs are such that you feel like you're  forced to eat Chinese food with 5-foot-long chop-sticks. That's pretty tough, even if you occasionally manage to grab a bite with these ridiculous chop sticks.......the odds of getting it all the way to your mouth are still ....1 time out of 6, and even if you do get that piece to your mouth, the states pay off at 50% the correct rate, instead of something closer to the correct odds of 1000 to one. You have to spit half of your food out! LOL  Now that's a tough game!

                       Following this logic leaves us with a horrible picture of the big games. For the big games, the chop-sticks are Thousands or Millions of feet long!  LOL   

                        lottoshlep's avatar - super 7-top-over.jpg
                        BC
                        Canada
                        Member #2120
                        August 19, 2003
                        258 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: November 23, 2003, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

                        No one has metion

                        if at first you don't succeed ... destroy all evidence you ever tried  Cool 

                          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                          Dump Water Florida
                          United States
                          Member #380
                          June 5, 2002
                          3102 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: November 24, 2003, 11:05 pm - IP Logged

                          Frequency is a bootstrapping effect when put to proper use.  First you break down the numbers into hot, average and cold, then you look at the draw history and see how many came from each in the drawings, now you know the percentage ratio of how many hot, average and cold numbers you need to put on your wheel to mimic the proportions of your game.

                          The idea of playing the hottest numbers is a waste as the winning draw never comes from all hot or all cold or even hot and cold.  Every draw has a mixture of hot and average, average and cold or hot, average and cold. 

                          If you do find a draw with all hot, it will have had so many winners it would have the worst payout possible, not the one to win. 

                          BobP

                            Johnny5's avatar - japheth
                            Ocala
                            United States
                            Member #3015
                            December 13, 2003
                            70 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 13, 2003, 4:53 pm - IP Logged



                            apagogeas
                            Posted: November 23, 2003 at 11:26am - IP LoggedIMG height=21 alt=Report Inappropriate Content src= //lp.vg/images/p_report.gif">IMG height=21 alt=Quote apagogeas src= //lp.vg/images/p_quote.gif">



                            EXCALIBUR, we say exactly the same thing! Actually, anyone here says the same thing in different words.

                            About the formulas, this is like asking me to write a technical article on this, which I'll not. There a lot steps involved in this, it's not just a simple equation. Anyone who has an understanding of statistics, confidence intervals, normal distribution, degrees of freedom, sample size properties etc, can realize the problem we are dealing with. It's differeít to observe a possible dvent than proving it's truth. Consider the tossing of a coin which has only 2 possible outcomes, and if it's fair we expect each one to appear 1/2. If you toss it 10 times, you may end with 5 heads. This doesn't mean it's fair. To make "sure" we have to setup a whole procedure defining a confidence interval (eg 95%), an assumption of its possible distribution etc. This could require tossing more than 1000 times and may repeat the whole procedure over and over again. This is the simplest example someone can think about. Lotteries have many more outcomes than this. And we don't know their distribution and other properties in advance. You don't need to be a math's freak to understand the complexity of this problem. Pick-3 games are possibly easier than lotto but have the same problems too.

                            Johnny5 says:

                            I agree with this assumption and yes the fact of having more problems than this is very true.  In the process of developing a good system you must consider all PROBABLE CAUSE.. Like for instance.. the Florida Lottery uses 3 different machines and ball sets labeled A thru G..  not to mension the ware on the ball sets, current temperatures or any of the such CAUSES..  this alone will increase your guess.. but none the less observing all these with carefulness might give you the tick you need.. I have developed a system for the Fantasy 5 wich I am still testing before applying and so far I am getting a 96% accuracy on it..  I can't seem to go under a $3,000 USD invenstment but hey.. to invest $3,000 USDs and get back $54,000 USDs.. I think would be a good investment.


                             

                              hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                              Pennsylvania
                              United States
                              Member #1340
                              April 6, 2003
                              2450 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 13, 2003, 5:51 pm - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by apagogeas on November 22, 2003


                              We should look for patterns, unusual behaviour of each number or anything else except frequencies!


                              Frequency is the basis for patterns. A number's frequent appearance or conspicuous absence is the core of most systems. I would be more inclined to believe sums have no practical value in a jackpot (multi-ball, non-replacement) game.

                              Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.