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Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 13 years ago by JAP69.

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When we tally up which predictions were winners after the draw, how should prizes be determined?

 Use a standard prize amount for each game [ 16 ] [40.00%] Use the actual prize amount that each state pays [ 24 ] [60.00%] Total Valid Votes [ 40 ] Discarded Votes [ 5 ]
Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23277 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 8, 2004, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

This question is so the membership can let me know their opinion about "keeping score" of predictions that win.  Specifically, I need to figure out how to show how much a win would have produced.

My initial thought is that we should use a "universal" amount for a win.  That's the way Maybell's used to do it.  For example, if someone predicted a Pick 3 number that hit straight, they would be credited with a \$500 win, no matter what state the prediction was for.

The other way of doing it would be to research state-by-state what the typical prize is for every prize level of every game, and credit wins based on "real" amounts.  For example, a winning straight prediction in New Jersey (a pari-mutuel prize state) would be something like \$275, not \$500.

The second method would be more accurate, but is also more work.  I have no problem investing the time to program it the second way, but only if the membership actually wants it that way.

Please let me know your opinion, especially those who post predictions, so I can create the feature the way you want it.

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South Carolina
United States
Member #6
November 4, 2001
8790 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

Todd,

I think an equal prize amount would do fine. Would be fair to those who post pari-mutel states.
A hit is a hit.

MAGA

China
Member #3032
December 16, 2003
1081 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

I support the second way.

goose

United States
Member #2141
August 21, 2003
119 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

Todd,

Just asking,....but wouldn't a win by someone posting 3 lines be worth more than a win by someone posting 12 lines??  The 3 line poster would have a much better percentage.  Anyway, thanks for all your hard work.  We appreciate you!

IMT

Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23277 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 8, 2004, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

IMT,

Yes, one of the stats that we'll keep track of is the play/win ratio, so if you win with fewer picks, then you will have a higher ratio.  That ratio, along with the dollars spent/won ratio is pretty much the Holy Grail of lottery predicting.  (Which is one of the main reasons for this poll.)

Thanks for the kind words!

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Pennsylvania
United States
Member #2218
September 1, 2003
5387 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

Todd,

If 10 picks is the maximum magic number why not have everyone who posts predictions use all 10.

Everyone would use the same percentages.

wsls

Pennsylvania
United States
Member #2218
September 1, 2003
5387 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

Todd,

Will you include a prediction for Front and Back Pairs.  I realize not every state plays pairs.  Is there any chance of adding it but to be fair not include it in the overall performance of predicitons?

Thanks,

wsls

Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23277 Posts
Online
 Posted: February 8, 2004, 10:22 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by winsumloosesum on February 08, 2004

Todd,

Will you include a prediction for Front and Back Pairs.  I realize not every state plays pairs.  Is there any chance of adding it but to be fair not include it in the overall performance of predicitons?

Thanks,

wsls

Possibly; not sure yet.

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Pennsylvania
United States
Member #1340
April 6, 2003
2450 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

will this effectively do away with the "all states" blanket predictions? Personally, I think it would be more accurate if the exact game has to be specified beforehand.

This is a great addition! keep up the great work.

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23277 Posts
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 Posted: February 8, 2004, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

No, it doesn't do away with "all states".  When you select all states, it actually places predictions into each of the states individually.  The matching of actual results to predictions is totally independent.

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Help eliminate computerized drawings!

Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3106 Posts
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 Posted: February 9, 2004, 1:23 am - IP Logged

My state's payouts don't change, so an equal prize amount is fine with me, but if you don't mind the extra work it would be more accurate.

I do think Massachusetts should be treated as if having two pick 3 draws and a single pick 4 per day for scoring as that's how it's played.

The front 3 of the pick-4 number could be the midday draw and the rear 3 of the pick-4 would be the night draw, and the pick-4 would be just that.

Prediction was important at Maybell, but eating up John's time toward the end so the more automated the process the better.

Super addition to an already great site.  I look forward to the time when lottery software houses duke it out putting their predictions on the line.

BobP

Virginia
United States
Member #1712
June 20, 2003
1549 Posts
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 Posted: February 9, 2004, 10:27 am - IP Logged

Todd:

All I play is the MM and PB, so I would say for these, use the actual amount "won."

Chief

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

United States
Member #30
January 14, 2001
113 Posts
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 Posted: February 14, 2004, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

Less complicated standard may be easier for you. Actual amount would be great but could it be done and updated quickly?

\$40 or \$80 boxed and \$500 straight are good enough for recording hits.

Amt 12 to 24 picks per game is ok with me. I like larger amounts no one has to buy them we just post them.

Thanks

Lee

Virginia
United States
Member #1712
June 20, 2003
1549 Posts
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 Posted: February 15, 2004, 11:45 am - IP Logged

Todd:

It probably wouldn't happen very often, but I would like to see where we could predict up to 50-combinations. This probably would only happen when a "Jackpot" reaches in excess of \$50 to \$80M like it is now. People tend to purchase more ticket's then. Most of the time, a good majority of us only post 10 to 20 combo's.

Can you set it up this way?

Chief

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

United States
Member #89
January 18, 2002
2092 Posts
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 Posted: February 15, 2004, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

Hello Todd, a win is a win, that's how I see this situation and include the ratio's! If you go state by state exact tally's then somewhere down the line, the already in progress program of state by state predictions will be eliminated because you will have two programs on the same site doing the same predictions and...you may lose the players that want to be a part of this great website yet do not wish to predict and post their names!

Teufellj

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