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Predictions - Are You Serious ?

Topic closed. 54 replies. Last post 13 years ago by prob987.

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hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
Pennsylvania
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Posted: May 2, 2004, 12:58 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by dragon on May 02, 2004



I know exactly what you mean.  Been there, done that. Where are you located geograpically (wondering about the economy and your skills)?







Northeast PA... Experience came from 11 months of training after the NAFTA-Shaft-a and over 10 years serving as "unpaid tech support for family, friends and co-workers". Before getting hired as a full-time machinist, I was the instructor for 17 months in the computer school that I went to...Then they too decided to downsize a few satellite locations... including mine. The economy here in the immediate area is dismal... no good jobs left, I must drive 1 hour each way to make $13 an hour (luckily I work 50 hour weeks)... a far cry from the $23/hr at Agere/Lucent... but locally, it's $8-$10 per hour in ALL the jobs AND you must go through a temp agency to get in anywhere. Computer jobs are non-existant, as most companies are parts of larger out-of-state entities with their own I.T. departments. In the rare dvent of an opening ,it's mostly short-term low paying contract work that they want a bachelor's degree and 10+ years of niche experience in stuff I have no experience in like AS/400 or COBOL or Novell. The school offered MS SQL, everybody wants Oracle...

Now I plan on working my way up to a CNC G-Code programmer at the machine shop... get close to that old salary... The worst thing about the economy-driven game of musical jobs is that I will forever be the "low man" seniority-wise.

As for Neural Nets, I have tried some commercial demos on lottery data with no positive results, and have read a good book on pattern recognition... I have yet to develop one from scratch though... I would be interested in hearing more about NNs from someone who has used them :-)

If you prefer private e-mail, I will PM you my e-mail address. Thanks!


 

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

    mazie789's avatar - side smile.jpg
    Nasau, Bahamas
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    Posted: May 2, 2004, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

    Mr. dragon if i may add m

    Lovies Hugs and Kisses

      mazie789's avatar - side smile.jpg
      Nasau, Bahamas
      Bahamas
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      Posted: May 2, 2004, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

      Mr. dragon if i may add m

      Lovies Hugs and Kisses

        Jake649's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg

        Canada
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        November 2, 2003
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        Posted: May 2, 2004, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

        Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on May 02, 2004



        At the moment just before the first white ball is drawn you will have in the non-repeating set, a probability of 10 in 53 of having one number in either ticket.  In the second set, sharing one number, you will have a probability of only 9 in 53 of having one number in either ticket.  This means that you have an 18.9% of remaining in the game in the first case, and a 17.0% chance of remaining in the game in the second case.  Clearly, before the first ball is picked, the non-repeating set is superior to the repeating set, by almost 2%, a small but significant number.
        The repeating set has the advantage that if the first white ball matches the repeating number it becomes much better than than the non-repeating set. This advantage offsets the previously mentioned 2% advantage thereby making the two sets equivalent in value before any balls are drawn.


        If you analyze this mathematically, you will see that if you are careful, and buy more than one ticket, it is impossible to improve your odds by the amount that represents the probability of winning on a single ticket divided by the number of tickets purchased.
        I strongly disagree. Odds reduction can easily proven using a lottery with a small set of possible outcomes. This proof extrapolates to lotteries with large sets of possible outcomes.

        You simply cannot improve your odds more than that, however.  In order to be certain of winning the powerball, you need to purchase 120,526,770 tickets, being careful to select different numbers for each ticket.  It turns out that if you buy 120,526,770 quick picks, however, you will only have a 73% chance of winning, since many numbers will be duplicates.
        My calculations show that it is a 66% probability of winning.





        Good luck,
        Jake
          emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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          Posted: May 2, 2004, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

          what state you play dragon??

          love to nibble those micey feet.

           

                                       

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: May 2, 2004, 6:29 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by fja on May 02, 2004


            Sorry Bob P You cant by 2 tickets and cut a six million to one odd in half, but you are right about everything else,  If I hit a winning streak cause I buy my hand picked numbers at a certain store, then thats where I'll buy them until I that bit of luck goes dry.....Its just that way! 


            I did some research on this a while back and found official Canadian lottery web sites agree with you and official U.S.  lottery web sites selling two tickets for a dollar mostly agree with me.  For example, when New York Lotto 6/54 tickets were two for a dollar, they showed the odds of winning a jackpot as 1 in 12,913,583 exactly half what they should be for that game size.  BobP
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              Posted: May 2, 2004, 7:27 pm - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on May 02, 2004




              Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on May 02, 2004



              At the moment just before the first white ball is drawn you will have in the non-repeating set, a probability of 10 in 53 of having one number in either ticket.  In the second set, sharing one number, you will have a probability of only 9 in 53 of having one number in either ticket.  This means that you have an 18.9% of remaining in the game in the first case, and a 17.0% chance of remaining in the game in the second case.  Clearly, before the first ball is picked, the non-repeating set is superior to the repeating set, by almost 2%, a small but significant number.
              The repeating set has the advantage that if the first white ball matches the repeating number it becomes much better than than the non-repeating set. This advantage offsets the previously mentioned 2% advantage thereby making the two sets equivalent in value before any balls are drawn.

              If you analyze this mathematically, you will see that if you are careful, and buy more than one ticket, it is impossible to improve your odds by the amount that represents the probability of winning on a single ticket divided by the number of tickets purchased.
              I strongly disagree. Odds reduction can easily proven using a lottery with a small set of possible outcomes. This proof extrapolates to lotteries with large sets of possible outcomes.

              You simply cannot improve your odds more than that, however.  In order to be certain of winning the powerball, you need to purchase 120,526,770 tickets, being careful to select different numbers for each ticket.  It turns out that if you buy 120,526,770 quick picks, however, you will only have a 73% chance of winning, since many numbers will be duplicates.
              My calculations show that it is a 66% probability of winning.




              Good luck,
              Jake




              In the first case, assuming only one trial, and that the other numbers in the set are all different (which is NOT the case in most wheeling systems as I understand them).  The obvious extrapolation to the absurd case would be the case where two identical tickets were purchased.  Your odds of winning the jackpot in that case with two identical tickets would be exactly equal to buying one ticket, and not the odds divided by 2.  If one is playing eleven tickets and not two, one can choose numbers in such a way that one has reduced the odds from a combin(53,5) situation to a combin(52,4) situation with 100% certainty.  One does this simply be choosing to play every number in the field at least once.  In any case, you must go through the first trial (the first ball selected) in every draw, you cannot avoid it.  You have stated a condition under which you have the first outcome known, but this is NOT what is obtained.

              I would very much like to see this proof sketched out or a reference to it in a text, if we are indeed discussing the same thing.  It is contrary to my own calculations, but if I've made an error, I would certainly like to know about it.  If it were possible to reduce the odds by more than the integer equal to the number of tickets purchased, it would be theoretically possible to achieve a certainty of a win by playing less than the total number of tickets possible.  That is counter-intuitive.

              In case #3, I relied on my memory of the figure for the Poisson distribution for a number of tickets and for some reason had the number 27% "holes" in my head.  The correct value is of course, 37% and I am wrong and you are right.  The point was only that some strategies are better than others; so the basic idea remains correct.

               


               

                San Diego
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                Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:11 pm - IP Logged
                Quote: Originally posted by emilyg on May 02, 2004


                what state you play dragon??


                California.
                  San Diego
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                  Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:14 pm - IP Logged

                  Prob987 and Jake649

                  Thanks for your thorough discussion on duplication of odds, etc. I have taken it offline and I'll be reviewing your numbers and assumptions. After I have a chance to do the math, I'll post my comments and thoughts.

                    emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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                    Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

                    did you check your pm dragon??

                    love to nibble those micey feet.

                     

                                                 

                      San Diego
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                      Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:23 pm - IP Logged
                      Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on May 02, 2004



                      Now I plan on working my way up to a CNC G-Code programmer at the machine shop... get close to that old salary... The worst thing about the economy-driven game of musical jobs is that I will forever be the "low man" seniority-wise.

                      As for Neural Nets, I have tried some commercial demos on lottery data with no positive results, and have read a good book on pattern recognition... I have yet to develop one from scratch though... I would be interested in hearing more about NNs from someone who has used them :-)

                      If you prefer private e-mail, I will PM you my e-mail address. Thanks!


                       





                      Our company has clients in that area in NY state: Orange County,  Rockland County, Nassau County and potentially soon Sullivan County. That's your neighborhood, isn't it? My company is a Microsoft Certified Partner and we have need for help from time to time. I cannot promise anything - no openings right now, but if there were, you'd qualify.

                      Nothing to hide and we can post here on neural net prediction algorithms. However, I have been blasted (see above) for getting off subject, even if in jest, so I am sensitive to getting into NN prediction methodology if the primary focus is not the lottery.

                      NNs are great at predicting things like market  fluctuations, prices, detecting fraud like credit  card fraud, etc.  The leap to the lottery is easily made, the differences are subtle and yet profound in the way they affect the outcome. More later.

                        San Diego
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                        Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:33 pm - IP Logged
                        Quote: Originally posted by dragon on May 02, 2004



                        Quote: Originally posted by Winner2Be on May 02, 2004



                        St. Germain--


                        "Don't be a goose"--that was exactly my thought on this, and it still makes me wonder...is this another goose?


                        Todd--what do you think...is it another "goose"?


                        Just a thought to ponder...


                        To all my lotto buddies--


                        Happy Winnings today, and don't forget it's all about having fun!!


                         




                        I am embarrassed: What's a 'goose?' Nobody wants to tell the goose.


                          San Diego
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                          Posted: May 2, 2004, 9:45 pm - IP Logged
                          Quote: O
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                            Chief Bottle Washer
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                            Posted: May 2, 2004, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                            dragon,

                            goose

                             

                            Check the State Lottery Report Card
                            What grade did your lottery earn?

                             

                            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                              weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
                              Mcminnville, Oregon
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                              Posted: May 2, 2004, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                              "Goose"/"LottoKing" is a former member of lottery post.  He was kicked out for his fowl tongue. no pun intended!-Dragon