AllenB's Blog

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A Tribute to a Buddy

I have dreaded a Day like Today.  Since the Day I realized that He only had a life expectancy of maybe 10-12 years the thought of his end came to me every once in a while, and then passed.  I feel cheated at only 9 years. 

Buddy was born hear.  He had 6 Brothers and 1 Sister.  It was an absolute joy to watch 8 little puppies grow and begin to explore the outside world.  They were blessed to be born on 5 Acres in Northern California.  Rather than tear them away from their mother at 8 Weeks, I did not offer them for adoption until they were almost 14 Weeks.  This gave them as much time as I could get away with and still find them good homes.  Buddy and his Sister Polly were special puppies.  Both followed me wherever I went.  Eventually my conversations with them evolved into a promise that they could stay. 

Together with their Mother, a black Lab named Sally and My first Dog, a Golden Retriever also named Sally (I took in Momma Sally from nephew when he moved and did not want to keep here), they were allowed to just be dogs.  They have dug more holes than I can Count.  I have had to pull my lawn mower out of one, more times than I can count.  They spent their time hunting lizards, digging up moles, chasing Rabbits and unfortunately catching a few.  Buddy, in his youth used to Tear around at great Speed.  He could do the loop around the Shop and the house in Record Speed.  He and Polly would go in opposite circles and meet in the middle of the yard for a little wrestling match or just a mid-air kiss and on to another lap.  It was truly a joy to watch but had become less frequent as they aged.  Every once in a while, Buddy got some spark and did a Lap. 

Buddy used to come to my chair and put his head against my knee.  He did not look up, he just wanted his back and tail scratched.  He would groan as his his back was scratched. 

Buddy’s kidneys failed.   The Team of Veterinarians tried for 3 Days to cure him, but he was to far gone.  I said good bye to him this morning at about 3:00 am.  I am shedding my ears this morning and loving his memory as much as I can.  I am going to miss him. 

He was my Buddy.

Entry #43

Looking up from all of those darned Numbers

What is Going on? 

At the End of Stacking all of these Numbers that are Born from each Draw in Column after Column, Grouping the Numbers in each column, A Tool to Extract Combinations by Entering one of the Group Values in a Few Sequences and Creating a Set of Combinations, Where am I?

The Tool does What I Say to Do.  It does not yet have a reliable Auto Setting.  The Tool is like a Labrador Retriever that wont stop dropping a tennis ball at my feet, and drooling on my shoes until I throw the ball.   Again and again and….  Each time something about the Ball Changes and the Dog brings it back with a sack of combinations.  More Symbolism for the Same Old Question.  What happens Next?  I constantly hear the Definition of Random is that you can not Know What will happen next.  Well we can’t know what will happen Next, but we can Define things about the Draw to the Extent that We can Restrict the Options for What is Going On!  That’s what all of this Filtering is about.  Creating a View of the Draw History in a set of Values from each column. 

I have been fascinated with the writing of Hydromaln in his “Cycles  “ Threads.  It Occurs to me that this is like Star Wars,  Using Extreme Mathematics and Super computers to navigate the Lottery Universe and What I am Doing is Building Modern Ruins of the Ancient City of STK_TROH.  Suddenly my Stacks are crumbled piles that I am Studying and Re stacking only to watch them crumble again and again.  Most that stop by the Viewing station and then move on.  It is kind of like a Nature walk that you only do once in your life.  I have been sitting there for a while, watching the Stacks.   The Tool is now my special set of Binoculars Filtering in a View of a few Stacks.  The First thing that I noticed is that Not all of the Stacks crumble with a New Draw.  With my Filter I can see that there are 6 Stacks that Remain Stacked after Every Draw.  Huddled around those Stacks are a Few Combinations that were inside of the Stack when the Daily Event took Place. 

Trying to Find the Solid Stacks that survive the next Event is evolving into a simple question.  Is yesterdays Stack Solid enough to Stand in the Event again?   

When the Stack history is plotted in a linear graph the Question becomes Does it Roll or Bounce?

The Dog just dropped the Tennis Ball again.  This time he wants me to throw it into the New Pond forming from the History of Slide Show produced by my Binoculars.   This Time I am not taking any numbers into my thinking process.  I’m only going to look at What is going on and decide what will Roll and What will bounce.  History tells me that Rolls are possible to predict.  Bounces are more complicated because there are options on where it bounces to.  If you listen to a Draw, you can only hear the bounces.  You can hear how many balls are bouncing.  You get a sense of what has been going on.

The Slide Show reveals another set of Random Events.  I have emerged from the Counts.  I exit knowing things like what happens the most times in Each Group of Stacks.  I know how many times a stack has crumbled or stood.  I can tell you that there is always a mixture of Solid and Brittle Stacks.  Using a Set that contains only the things that happen most in each stack is always a loser. 

So, I am going to Sit here at the viewing stations and try to get some sense of What will happen Next.  I will continue to look at and redefine is necessary the Settings on my Binoculars and Logging my Findings.  I am Keeping a log of What is On and What has been Going On trying tp Predict What Will Happen Next.

That Darn Dog just dropped that very slimy saliva covered tennis ball on my new left shoe. I have a surprise for him.  I brought the pitching machine today.  I’m setting it to launch balls back in time for a few hundred Events.  That should keep him busy for a little while.

I know there is a Star Gate in these Ruins somewhere.  How do I Know this?  It is because I'm Nuts

Entry #42

Name Change "Sniper" replaces by "IONIZER"

Discovered, thanks to Harvestmoon, that Someone is already selling an interesting looking System online called the Pick3Siper.  So I thought about what I was doing and came up with Instead Of Numbers (ION) and Renamed the File the Pick_3_IONIZER_Model_1

Sounds a little less violent and has a Ring to It don't you think?

Entry #41

Finally a Hit

Ht a Box yesterday.  The Numbers in Play were posted for Wednesday when I was too Late for Tuesday.  In this Case, combinations Posted Wednesday were based on Tuesday's Game.  This is a Golden Mistake.  I wonder if there are More of them.  Need to Start Watching for Delayed Hits.

Working on Format and Organization again.  Giving up on the idea that anyone is interested in looking at Charts and Considerations to help them Guess.  I am finding that it is quite difficult; but, I am getting better with Practice.  I have been thinking about Dials, like on a Stove.  Each Filter would have a Knob that is Changed or Unchanged in the Next Draw.  Perhaps the Visual Display would be more interesting.  I will post something soon as an example.

Entry #39

10-01-2018 Results

Guessed 3 of 6  More Work was devoted to Format and Organization than Guessing. 

Entry #38

10-01-2018

Spent the Day working on a Few Things to Consider.  I have the makings of something to Follow in terms other than Numbers.  Not Sure if I will do any Better Predicting.  SQUAT So Far.

Entry #37

9_29_2018

Anybody out there?  Do you think this is a Lot of Work?  I admit it seems to be a bit overwhelming.  Well most of the work comes from updating this Blog. What I am really doing here is an open Test of a Process.  I have to say that the Process is going pretty well, but the Selections have not hit anything yet.  I am Posting the Combinations on the California Pick 4 Predictions.  As of today, Not a Hit.

Entry #36

9_28_2018 Follow up

Red Line mark up.  I matched 3 of 6 Keys.  On the O, I copied the conclusion from the R and did not Correct it. 

Entry #35

Pick 4 Rabbits in the Cross Hairs.

Forget the Air Line,  I am "Hutin Wabbits"

It is a more appropriate use of a Tool Containing the Name Sniper.  No more descriptions of the Process.  No more Requests for Any Outside Assistance. 

I Dialed up some Targets for Tonight's California Pick 4 Draw

Entry #31

Announcing Lotto Airways

What is a Filter? 

In Order to Filter Data you first have to have Data to Filter.  Pretty Basic; but, it follows that some way of Filtering the Data is required. 

Data in any Lottery Game comes first in Draw History provided by the Lottery itself or the Results found on LP.  We Expand this Data in a few Basic Ways, like running hit counts for the Digits that make up the Winning Combination, along with Skips for each Digit When or if it Hits.  We Combine some of the Columns into Supplemental Data with formulas creating Categories like pairs of Digits, Hits, Skips, Frequencies, or by an “Add On” like Substitution, or up/down formulas, etc. 

Filters mine the Data.  Mostly they mine the Supplemental Data, and fall into Categories.  A filter is a Specific Value or a Range of Values found in the Category.  Columns of Data can grow numerous, each presenting a new Filter Opportunity.   

We all know that To Many Filters means Death.  Most are inclined to avoid Systems with too many filters; but, I am of the opinion the More the Merrier, to a point.  I say this because you do not have to Use all of the Filters.  You can Pick and Chose until you get what you hope is a pool of Combinations from which a hit will produce Profit.  Hold On a second.  Deciding on a Filter is in itself a Filter.  So, where are We?  Instead of Picking a Number or Combination to Play from the Set of Possible Options, we take a Walk down the Filter Path.   As the Walk begins We hear voices telling us that there is no Connection between any of our Data or our Filters to the Next Draw Event.  I accept that and keep walking.  I Start by picking a Category from the Supplemental Data.  For Example: Start with the Number of Times that a Combination has hit in the Draw History.  For most Pick 4 games, The Number of Draws to date is less than the Number of possibilities by a significant amount.  New Jersey Day game has only 4597 Draws to Date.  The Hit Counts in this case will range from 0-5 or 6 for each possible Combination.  Grouping these Counts into 3 Options and Projecting forward, We have a List of Combinations that will hit for the First Time if Drawn Next.  For New Jersey Day there are 6921 Combinations that would be First Time hitters.  There are 2939 Combinations that would hit for the second time and 770 Combinations that would hit for the at least a Third time.  Selecting First timers Filters out all but 6921 of the remaining options.    3709 Combinations are discarded by this first filter.  Are We Dead Yet?  Maybe.  The Walk is not in the Dark.  At Filter 1 there are historical Graphs and Statistics to look over.  These Graphs influence the decision visually.  Statistics can also be grouped presenting the Opportunity for a “Sub Filter” to help in the Selection for the Filter. 

Once Filter 1 is “Locked in”, you find yourself at the intersection of all of the remaining Filters.  It is kind of like being at an Airport and Looking at the Flight Schedule.  Flight Numbers are Categorized and Numbered. You Select a Category and Flight Number and Board the Plane with a Passenger List of combinations with Matching Tickets.  Sorry, We Went from a Hike to a Flight; but, to keep it real you don’t find that many signs on a hike in these hills.  So, on with the Flight.  As the Flight takes off, the Captain comes on the Radio and Says “Thank you for Choosing Lotto Airways for your Flight.  We want to inform you that we have overbooked this Flight”.  You look around and see a few empty seats.  Before you can say anything the Captain says “We have a policy that all flights must be profitable.  Should We Land successfully We will Receive a Check for Winning the New Jersey Pick 4 Day Lottery in the amount of $3926.50.  Flying is expensive amounting to 90% of the Check.  We do not accept less than a 10% profit from any Flight.  The Maximum number of Tickets that We can Accept is 393.  We therefore will have to remove some of you from this Flight to get the correct number of passengers.  We cannot afford to land and drop you off so we will just open the door and you losers will have to jump.

Suddenly you are the Captain faced with the task of dumping passengers.  You say to yourself “Why did I Even start this Trip?  Well, you can’t turn back Captain, make the hard choices and put the pedal down, We, don’t have all Day.  Sorry, I woke up with Symbolism this morning.

IF you decided to take this Trip, what would you carry with you?  There is nothing stopping you from using any method.  Paper Maps and Calculations.  I Giant Pocket Protector full of colored pencils?  The Flight industry has evolved to provide you with in flight Computer Generated versions of the Maps and Calculations if you want to leave your hand-written baggage behind.    You are free to bring your own computer.  WIF is available. 

You were the only passenger that heard the Captains remarks.  You assumed command of the Flight when he just bailed out.   Now the Choices.  Who Stays and who jumps?  You survey the Data and find the next Category.  Let’s say you decide to only keep passenger that are a certain “Type” of Draw.  You Select only those passengers that are composed of separate digits.  If a combination has a digit that appears more than once, out the door it goes.  Eventually you get the passenger list to a small enough number that you can afford to risk and profit from the Flight.  In the end you get to you playing budget.

So, What’s the Point?

It’s all the Same Trip.  It does not matter what We do to get there.  We can Walk, Roll, Fly, Dream, Consult the Stars, bury ourselves in Data, get frustrated and quit.  I have wandered a lot.  I have taken a lot of Trail videos for days at a time, each one showing the perfect path.  The Videos make it look easy.  They hide the Fact that Random is as Random Does and as expected the perfect paths are as or more Random than the Draw itself.  Still I don’t See a better Way to Book the Right Flight.  Right Now the Selections at Lotto Airways requires you to get 3 to 5 Categories with Correct Numbers to board a successful flight.  Each of those Categories contain 1-4 Values.  Instead of making 4 decision from 0-9, You make 4 Decisions from 1-4, Gather up your passengers and pay the Fare.  Overwhelming if you have to do the calculations yourself before every Flight.  Well it isn’t THE OLDEN DAYS any more.  Navigating your Flight can be done automatically for you.  The Pick_4_Sniper_Model_2 is the Automated Booking System for Lotto Airways.  Let’s say you get a hankering to travel with a bunch of Single, 2 timing, Odd, Low Life Cousins that as a group has only have hit once in the last 100 Games.  That’s a lot of Work.  It is even a lot of Work for the Sniper requiring about 30 Seconds for each recalculation; but it is That Simple.

It may not be THE OLDEN DAYS; but it is Still Early in the Evolution of the Flight Industry, Lotto that is.  Future models with more options and faster response time will follow.  Personalized Data Samples and “Add Ins” are all coming. 

Just a Warning,  almost all of our Flights so far have just disappeared along with the imaginary money paid to charter the Plane.

More Test Flights results and WE WILL SEE.

Entry #30

Back in the Lab

Returning from a Total Right Hip Replacement performed 8/20/2018.  So far it has all been good.  I’m still pretty restricted; but, feeling better each day and getting around Fine with my Walker.  I was working hard on Pick 4 before the Operation.  I was about done with the Latest Tool and looking for Testers.  I am trying hard to get back the focus that I had before the Operation; but, I am missing some Fire.  Perhaps I can rekindle the fire by going over the General Idea again from the beginning.

Much is done to define a combination of 3,4 or 5 Digits in a Lottery Game.  You all know what, I mean.  Numerous (Counts, Matches, Mathematical Relationships, “Substitutions”) applied to the Combination and its components produce a solid set of parts for each Draw.  The Same Parts are also found in the Pool of Combinations that Feed the Draw (pardon my stretch, symbolic only).

The Simple Goal is to be better at guessing which part will be present in the Next Draw.  The Results of a Correct Guess of said Part yield a reduced set of Combinations in the Pool each matching the Part Number.  The Task is to combine a few Part Numbers and find a reasonable sized Pools of Combinations matching each Part Number.  Set You Budget and control the output by your own personal set of Part Number Values. 

Part Numbers are the Key.  They produce a series of Groups of Combinations that match Said Part Number.  It is that Simple.  Think of a Part Number as having both a Catalog Value and an actual value (usually from 1-3).

THE GUESS is a series of Part Numbers.  The Guess begins with a Selection from the Catalog followed by the Actual Value of the Part Number.  Catalog Offerings are limitless; but only a few are necessary to maintain the Budget. 

Below is the Catalog for the Pick_4_Sniper_Model_2_Slim Tool.  The Tool Creates a Set of Combinations that Match any combination of the Filters shown Below.  Generally, it takes a minimum of 3 Filters to Reduce the Pool of Combinations to a playable number.  I generally stop when I reach 24 or fewer combinations. 

Direct Filters

1

_Str8_Block

2

_Box_Block

3

T

4

R

5

OE (Odd ct.)

6

HL (High ct.)

7

TR

8

TROEHL

9

Structure

Block Filters

10

TR_Block

11

TROEHL_Block

12

Structure_Block

13

Str_B1_Block

14

Str_B2_Block

15

Str_B3_Block

16

Str_B4_Block

Special Filters

17

Str_Block.Stru_Sum

18

Str_Block_S/FxH

 

This is a long list.  It would seem that Guessing here would be as hard as an outright guess of a single winner; yet, the Odds look a little better because of a Small number of options for the filters.  Unfortunately, while the odds of hitting the filter may be better, the Pool size expands to a number that when multiplied by said Odds is about the same as the Odds of a correct single Pick.

A NEW LOOK

When I tried to get back into this process, It, was spinning a bit too much.  As I lay in the hospital bed, It, all started to break apart into Columns and Rows again.  A kind of spinning, revolving action of these columns and rows seemed to show a lot more convergences of a small set of correct Values for sets of filters. 

The Task seems to shift now to the Best Filter Combinations (Parts and their values).  There are many Options and quite a few contain the winner in their Reduced Pool of Combinations.

THE TOOL

The Tool has 2 Modes of Operation.  Manual Requires you to Enter a Value Directly into the Catalog.  Catalog Items and their Values entered manually may be in conflict with other Catalog Items and their values.  When conflicting catalog items are used in a Filter Series, the Output will be a Blank Set of Combinations.  You could think of this as dialing a scope to find the Target by switching on filters and adjusting values until you see something that you like.

The Tool also operates in “Control” Mode.  In this Mode, Values for the Part Number are calculated from the Data base on Manual Entry in or a Calculation from the Draw Data. 

Now the Tool lets you combine any set of filters made up from the List of 18.  Bulk Filters paired with Specific Part Values can be Preset and Evaluated back through Time. 

As the Tool Rolls into the Testing Phase, it begins a search for What I call, the Simplest Setting.  Maybe Simple is the wrong word, but, if defined as the most Direct method to a pool containing a winner, it is a little clearer.  What will happen when a Direct Filter like the St8Block Filter or the Type Filter is Paired with a Position Block Filter will be very interesting (well to me that is).

Entry #29
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